Dye to Reds Speculation

[quickman]

Have you heard anything specifically about White Sox season ticket renewals and cutting payroll...or just the generic comments about the economy from KW, moving towards a younger and more athletic roster...I think it was the Barry Rozner article about having 75 cents to spend out of a dollar instead of 50 like it used to be.

 

 

Correct that is what I saw, but you would think this was going to happen. Most companies are cutting back wether its people or expenses. It does surprise me that the Sox took this time to raise prices. Quite frankly, they should have held the line particularly this year. If you connect the dots it makes sense. This economy will eventually hit everyone.

[Dick Allen]

Have you heard anything specifically about White Sox season ticket renewals and cutting payroll...or just the generic comments about the economy from KW, moving towards a younger and more athletic roster...I think it was the Barry Rozner article about having 75 cents to spend out of a dollar instead of 50 like it used to be.

People looking for upgrades have been told it will be difficult because renewels are at 95-97%

 

KW said he was slashing payroll per the Rozner column.

 

Those who live for the chance to criticize the South Siders will no doubt enjoy hearing that the Sox won't be spending as much as they did in 2008, when they were fifth in baseball at $121 million.

 

"First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy.

 

"We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here.

 

"These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.''

 

[caulfield12]

Well. I'm not of the belief that spending $100 million plus guarantees success, and our 2005 team is a perfect example of a budget-conscious team (we'd just shed Magglio, C-Lee and Valentin) being very successful.

 

However, the thinking must be that things might be even worse in 2010, so this is the optimal time to go for a price increase...they always have the option to lower prices to make them more attractive again...but it would be harder with another year of recession AND potentially not coming off a playoff appearance.

 

The numbers are a little bit deceptive because of the contract money coming our way (Griffey, Thome, Vazquez?)...but we were still around $105-110 with all those adjustments made for "subsidies," correct? I always found it ironic that the Yankees were not only paying Contreras to pitch for us, but that he was leading us to the World Series in the process, whereas the Yanks haven't won it since 2000.

 

I think the recessionary situation does KW some additional cover, as well as JR. However, according to many, the White Sox aren't seeing significant falloff in season ticket sales for 2009...quite the contrary. I guess they figure it's better to conservatively "pre-correct" than to wait one year too long on players like Swisher, Dye, Vazquez and Jenks.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

 

Realistically, we were 16th in MLB attendance...yet our payroll was in the Top 5-8. Of course, mathematicians can calculate average ticket, concession, souvenir and parking prices and tell you that the White Sox were probably somewhere around 8-12 in terms of generating overall revenue because of the higher prices vis a vis many of the other markets in the game. I do appreciate the White Sox willingness to spend though in the 2006-08 seasons. I never thought I'd see that in my lifetime as a White Sox fan, to tell the truth.

Edited November 26, 2008 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

So to take this in a different direction, did Cincy have any players in the Arizona Fall League, and who were they?

[caulfield12]

Joining me here on the Peoria Javelinas from the Reds are infielders Chris Valaika and Justin Turner, pitchers Carlos Fisher, Robert Manuel, Sean Watson, and Pedro Viola, and infielder/outfielder Sean Henry.

 

http://aflreds.mlblogs.com/

 

Obviously, KW loves pitchers.

 

But Valaika is a pretty highly regard (and young) SS prospect, Henry and also CF C. Dickerson (although he will be 27 next season, maybe a late bloomer?) could figure in this somewhere as well...Turner's stats as a 2B don't overwhelm, but I've never seen him play either. Most of these players were in AA at Chattanooga.

 

Dickerson hit over .300 for the Reds in over 100 AB's, showing pretty decent power and some speed. I know his name has been mentioned a few times as one of the minor league outfielders/prospects to really keep an eye on.

 

And while we're talking prospects, it looks like MINN has another Torii Hunter/Span/Gomez coming up in Aaron Hicks, their top-rated prospect. Just what the White Sox need to deal with!!!

Edited November 26, 2008 by caulfield12

[klaus kinski]

"First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy.

 

"We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here.

 

"These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.''

 

 

They obviously forgot this when THEY raised prices and made us pay in 2 installments instead of four.

 

At least the part of the head that pertains to fans remains in the sand

[striker]

I am all for a Dye/Bailey trade as long as we get another prospect.

 

I think some people over value prospects. Even if Bailey does turn out to be good what would be considered good? 12-15 wins? You have to look at what is expected of a player and what are the odds you will get what is expected. I would expect 30hrs and 100rbi from Dye and you could say there is a 90% chance you get that. I would expect 12-15 wins from Bailey but the odds of getting that next year are probably 10%, 2010 25%, 2011 60%. You get my drift? Sure Bailey has talent but that doesn't mean he'll pan out.

 

Fans also need to look at their team in 2009, 2010, and 2011. The Reds appear to have alot of pitching prospects (http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/7/16485/6608), which means they don't necessarily have to wait for Bailey to pan out. But they do have an immediate need for an OF run producer.

 

I guess I just sick of fans on some sites crying about trading away the future when their teams sucks now.

[ThunderBolt]

It wouldn't take that much for the Reds to compete for the division this year. If they can get a bat like Dye's for a price that doesn't kill 'em they could compete with the Cubs. Especially, now that the Brewers are falling off. They've got a great young staff, and a decent offensive core. I'm not sure Bailey would even make an impact on them for the next two years.

[Steve9347]

I am all for a Dye/Bailey trade as long as we get another prospect.

 

I think some people over value prospects. Even if Bailey does turn out to be good what would be considered good? 12-15 wins? You have to look at what is expected of a player and what are the odds you will get what is expected. I would expect 30hrs and 100rbi from Dye and you could say there is a 90% chance you get that. I would expect 12-15 wins from Bailey but the odds of getting that next year are probably 10%, 2010 25%, 2011 60%. You get my drift? Sure Bailey has talent but that doesn't mean he'll pan out

According to his career track record and the 2 times he's done that in 14 seasons, I'd put that more at a 14% chance.

[Disco72]

According to his career track record and the 2 times he's done that in 14 seasons, I'd put that more at a 14% chance.

 

Considering that Dye has averaged 34.25 HRs/season and 95 RBI/season in his 4 years with the White Sox, I think you are nitpicking.

[iamshack]

Considering that Dye has averaged 34.25 HRs/season and 95 RBI/season in his 4 years with the White Sox, I think you are nitpicking.

 

Dye's numbers would probably be fairly similar at the Great American Ballpark, considering it is a bandbox similar to ours. Take away a bit of production for his increase in age, but add a bit of production for the lesser pitching in the NL and I think it works out fairly similarly.

[YASNY]

Call it 30 dingers, 90 ribbies and we got a pretty good chance Dye will get there.

[DBAHO]

Would anyone do Bailey + Stubbs for Dye?

[Chisoxfn]

Justin Turner is a poor mans version of Pedroia/Eckstein. Hell of a player in college at Fullerton. I'd rather look at Danny Dorn who has some power potential but not the greatest average (another former Titan).

[Milkman delivers]

Justin Turner is a poor mans version of Pedroia/Eckstein. Hell of a player in college at Fullerton. I'd rather look at Danny Dorn who has some power potential but not the greatest average (another former Titan).

 

Is he related to Roger?

[iamshack]

Is he related to Roger?

 

What do you expect me to do, dive for it?

[ThunderBolt]

Would anyone do Bailey + Stubbs for Dye?

Would the Reds? Stubbs is one of their top prospects. I think we'd be reaching for him.

[Balta1701]

Would the Reds? Stubbs is one of their top prospects. I think we'd be reaching for him.

What we might want to keep in mind is that the White Sox do not need to trade JD. If they trade JD, they're almost guaranteed to make themselves a worse team NEXT YEAR. In other words, we ought to be reaching for people if we're going to trade JD. We're giving up a ridiculously solid player under contract for 2 more years who'll probably also be a type A FA when he does walk. We ought to be reaching. When we traded Garcia, he wasn't as valuable as JD to me, and we got 2 potential pitchers, and Gavin was sort of the throw-in for that deal. It's not like Stubbs is looking like the next Pujols, he's more of a speed guy.

[ThunderBolt]

What we might want to keep in mind is that the White Sox do not need to trade JD. If they trade JD, they're almost guaranteed to make themselves a worse team NEXT YEAR. In other words, we ought to be reaching for people if we're going to trade JD. We're giving up a ridiculously solid player under contract for 2 more years who'll probably also be a type A FA when he does walk. We ought to be reaching. When we traded Garcia, he wasn't as valuable as JD to me, and we got 2 potential pitchers, and Gavin was sort of the throw-in for that deal. It's not like Stubbs is looking like the next Pujols, he's more of a speed guy.

I think that KW sees Bailey as the centerpiece, everyone else is gravy. I expect whomever else we'd get to be a good prospect, i just think we'll temper our expectations a bit. I don't think we'll see Stubbs ever develop in to a Sizemore type, but the Reds clearly expect a lot from him.

[Balta1701]

I think that KW sees Bailey as the centerpiece, everyone else is gravy. I expect whomever else we'd get to be a good prospect, i just think we'll temper our expectations a bit. I don't think we'll see Stubbs ever develop in to a Sizemore type, but the Reds clearly expect a lot from him.

With the things we've heard about Bailey losing velocity, and maybe even a couple of other questions about why...he'd take a major improvement to really even make the Reds rotation this year barring a trade. You can view him as one step above where Floyd was when we traded for Floyd, because he'd been up a little longer, but that's basically the boat Gavin was in except Gavin had about 30 more bad innings under his belt. Unless you think that Garcia on a 1 year deal was more valuable than JD on a 2 year deal, with Garcia's velocity drop already an issue in 06, then Bailey can't be viewed as a centerpiece on his own.

[scenario]

Is Bailey's velocity actually down?

 

I haven't seen anything that says that anywhere. I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I just haven't seen it. If anybody has anything, please link it.

 

The stuff I've seen suggests that his problems are:

(1) a mediocre changeup

(2) suspect command of his fastball

 

As a result, he is plagued by inconsistency... when he's controlling the fastball, he'll be lights out. When he's not, he gets lit up.

 

Sounds like a guy who could benefit from a visit to Dr. Cooper.

 

On the plus side, his fastball is (or was) consistently 92-98 mph. And he has a plus curveball that can buckle hitters waiting for the fast stuff. One scouts report I saw said Bailey had the best stuff the guy had seen in years... better than Cole Hamels... and was definitely #1 starter material.

 

 

[Jimmywins1]

In Bailey's AAA playoff start, he pitched 6 innings w/ 2 hits, 1 walk, and 8 K's. A scout there said he was throwing 93-96 in the 6th inning and that he had the best slider he'd seen all season. I think it's fair to say that the groin injury and the sprain he suffered this season were at least contributors to his drop off.

[southsider2k5]

In Bailey's AAA playoff start, he pitched 6 innings w/ 2 hits, 1 walk, and 8 K's. A scout there said he was throwing 93-96 in the 6th inning and that he had the best slider he'd seen all season. I think it's fair to say that the groin injury and the sprain he suffered this season were at least contributors to his drop off.

 

That is very interesting. I had no idea that the guy was hurt, especially with something that would prevent him from getting a good push off of the mound.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Dye has a limited no-trade clause that blocks deals to six teams. "We certainly would have to be contacted if any of the teams were on that list," agent Bob Bry said. "The Mets and Phillies have been rumored with Jermaine, and they are on the list." The Reds probably aren't on the list, but there's been little to suggest there's anything to the Cincinnati radio report that the White Sox and Reds were discussing a deal involving Dye and Homer Bailey.

 

[Jimmywins1]

that's disappointing.

Edited November 26, 2008 by Jimmywins1