Sox still interested in Willy Taveras

[bighurt4life]

Who gives a s***, you cant just pluck a .380 OBP to leadoff and get on base at a ridiculous rate out of nowhere or we would have done it by now..

 

If he hits .280+ and steals 60-70 bases (and possibly more) and plays good defense that's more than enough in my opinion to make up for a .330 OBP

 

exactly. 330 obp isn't horrible and it's a hell of a lot better than anything we have, especially taking into consideration our other options or rather lack thereof.

[T R U]

Here's an interesting fact about him though: both World Series teams he's been on (2005 Astros, 2007 Rockies) were both swept in their World Series runs.

 

Or, hes been in the league for 4 seasons and both teams hes played for have reached the World Series with him leading off

[T R U]

We acquired Podsednik to dump salary.

 

Thats not the ONLY reason we acquired him, yes we dumped salary but we also wanted his speed at the top of the lineup..

 

And big deal if Uribe out OPS's him last season.. Uribe struck out 15 times less than Taveres with 155 fewer at bats, Taveres also stole 67 more bases than Uribe..

 

They aren't the same type of player, so whats the point of saying Uribe can out slug Taveras.. so what, we have more than enough of that on this team anyways.. how about someone who can steal a base? Or score from 1st on a double, hell how about score from SECOND..

 

This team is station to station, and its sickening to watch sometimes.. and on top of that, the word is all it would take is Lance Broadway or Boone Logan.. Whether thats true or not, gimme a break that's all day

[Felix]

Or, hes been in the league for 4 seasons and both teams hes played for have reached the World Series with him leading off

If you are being serious, that is absolutely terrible logic. Hell, we won the World Series with Timo Perez. Clearly he's necessary for any team that wants to win anything.

 

Or, even better, we won the World Series with Scott Podsednik leading off. That doesn't mean he's a good player or deserving of the starting CF job.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Felix

[T R U]

If you are being serious, that is absolutely terrible logic. Hell, we won the World Series with Timo Perez. Clearly he's necessary for any team that wants to win anything.

 

Thats not my reason that we need to get him, but he brought up an "interesting fact" so I also tossed a fact out there as well.. pretty sure I have explained my pro wily stance already in here

 

[Marky Mark]

I like Willy, but there's only one problem. He's a national league player. His numbers would be a worse in the AL.

 

NL to AL = AA to AAA

[T R U]

I like Willy, but there's only one problem. He's a national league player. His numbers would be a worse in the AL.

 

NL to AL = AA to AAA

 

Pfft, if he was a pitcher maybe ide agree with you.. but speed is speed no matter what league you are in

 

An infield single in the NL is gonna be an infield single in the AL.. the bases are still 90 feet, hes not gonna get slower coming over here

 

Staying in a hitters park like ours playing with much better people around him, there's no doubt in my mind he would have a good season with us.. and like I already said, whether it be leading off or batting 9th

 

[WilliamTell]

yeah he's been to the World Series twice, but hasn't won a game there, haha.

[Marky Mark]

Pfft, if he was a pitcher maybe ide agree with you.. but speed is speed no matter what league you are in

 

An infield single in the NL is gonna be an infield single in the AL.. the bases are still 90 feet, hes not gonna get slower coming over here

 

Staying in a hitters park like ours playing with much better people around him, there's no doubt in my mind he would have a good season with us.. and like I already said, whether it be leading off or batting 9th

 

 

You are right about the fact that he'd be in a hitter's park (although it's more of a hitter's park in the sense of homers not base hits). Yes, you see more of a difference in pitchers coming from NL to AL, but I still declare that there is a bit of a difference in hitters to. Because he'd have to go up against more difficult AL pitching.

[T R U]

The last 3 seasons (2006-2008) for Wily T...

 

Pre All-Star: .273 avg .324 OBP 72 SB 17 CS

Post All-Star: .290 avg .349 OBP 62 SB 8 CS

 

U.S. Cellular Field: 21 ABs .333 AVG .414 OBP 9 SB 0 CS

 

Point is, if we could acquire him for pretty much a give away I see no reason why anyone could be against this move.. If we trade for someone better, great.. If we sign Furcal, sweet.. but if none of that happens and we do get Taveras I dont see why people are against it

 

 

[chunk23]

Or, hes been in the league for 4 seasons and both teams hes played for have reached the World Series with him leading off

 

Man, why go after Hudson, let's just sign Eckstein for SS.

[T R U]

Man, why go after Hudson, let's just sign Eckstein for SS.

 

Man some of you need to learn how to understand better

 

I guess I need to make myself clear once again, I did not say Wily Taveras means you go to the World Series.. It was just a fact, like the one that was posted BEFORE I posted that

 

jesus

[greg775]

Taveras is on another team so many like him.

Give me a break. He's Willie Harris. He's Gathright. He's OWENS!

We don't need Harris.

[T R U]

My "fun" Willy Taveras stat of the day.

 

In his last 851 AB's, Willy has 35 XBH. 35.

 

 

 

I'll wait for the "Extra base hits aren't important when you have speed" response. Or better yet, "Well, it's basically a double every time he gets a single, because he is so fast".

 

Why does this matter

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Who gives a s***, you cant just pluck a .380 OBP to leadoff and get on base at a ridiculous rate out of nowhere or we would have done it by now..

 

If he hits .280+ and steals 60-70 bases (and possibly more) and plays good defense that's more than enough in my opinion to make up for a .330 OBP

 

Agree.

 

Or, hes been in the league for 4 seasons and both teams hes played for have reached the World Series with him leading off

 

Agree.

 

Thats not the ONLY reason we acquired him, yes we dumped salary but we also wanted his speed at the top of the lineup..

 

And big deal if Uribe out OPS's him last season.. Uribe struck out 15 times less than Taveres with 155 fewer at bats, Taveres also stole 67 more bases than Uribe..

 

They aren't the same type of player, so whats the point of saying Uribe can out slug Taveras.. so what, we have more than enough of that on this team anyways.. how about someone who can steal a base? Or score from 1st on a double, hell how about score from SECOND..

 

This team is station to station, and its sickening to watch sometimes.. and on top of that, the word is all it would take is Lance Broadway or Boone Logan.. Whether thats true or not, gimme a break that's all day

 

Agree.

 

Thats not my reason that we need to get him, but he brought up an "interesting fact" so I also tossed a fact out there as well.. pretty sure I have explained my pro wily stance already in here

 

Agree.

 

Pfft, if he was a pitcher maybe ide agree with you.. but speed is speed no matter what league you are in

 

An infield single in the NL is gonna be an infield single in the AL.. the bases are still 90 feet, hes not gonna get slower coming over here

 

Staying in a hitters park like ours playing with much better people around him, there's no doubt in my mind he would have a good season with us.. and like I already said, whether it be leading off or batting 9th

 

Agree.

 

The last 3 seasons (2006-2008) for Wily T...

 

Pre All-Star: .273 avg .324 OBP 72 SB 17 CS

Post All-Star: .290 avg .349 OBP 62 SB 8 CS

 

U.S. Cellular Field: 21 ABs .333 AVG .414 OBP 9 SB 0 CS

 

Point is, if we could acquire him for pretty much a give away I see no reason why anyone could be against this move.. If we trade for someone better, great.. If we sign Furcal, sweet.. but if none of that happens and we do get Taveras I dont see why people are against it

 

Agree.

 

Man some of you need to learn how to understand better

 

I guess I need to make myself clear once again, I did not say Wily Taveras means you go to the World Series.. It was just a fact, like the one that was posted BEFORE I posted that

 

jesus

 

Agree.

 

Why does this matter

 

Agree.

 

Good job Shadows. You win the prestigious Internet Award for Defending Willy Taveras. I've defended him at length before as well, but sometimes people just don't understand. He's better than anything we have - unless Anderson breaks out which is just about impossible considering the Sox hesitation to play him regularly - and as far as a lead-off man, he's not ideal, but we're NOT GOING TO GET an ideal lead-off hitter BECAUSE THEY DON"T GET TRADED. The caps are me yelling BTW.

 

Edit: And if a lead-off hitter does get traded (because it is technically possible) it is going to cost a lot more than we'll want to give up. Especially if it's Roberts. Dumbass Baltimore dickwads probably would want Quentin, or Floyd, or Danks, or Alexei, or something equally unrealistic like Poreda + Fields + Beckham around the All-Star break. So f*** them.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[T R U]

Good job Shadows. You win the prestigious Internet Award for Defending Willy Taveras. I've defended him at length before as well, but sometimes people just don't understand. He's better than anything we have - unless Anderson breaks out which is just about impossible considering the Sox hesitation to play him regularly - and as far as a lead-off man, he's not ideal, but we're NOT GOING TO GET an ideal lead-off hitter BECAUSE THEY DON"T GET TRADED. The caps are me yelling BTW.

 

Edit: And if a lead-off hitter does get traded (because it is technically possible) it is going to cost a lot more than we'll want to give up. Especially if it's Roberts. Dumbass Baltimore dickwads probably would want Quentin, or Floyd, or Danks, or Alexei, or something equally unrealistic like Poreda + Fields + Beckham around the All-Star break. So f*** them.

 

Exactly, its impossible to fill your team out with perfect fits at all positions across the board over night.. it aint gonna happen..

 

Top that with the fact that we can get Wily for next to nothing, and add a dimension to this team that it doesn't have at all, how could anyone be against it?

 

And as far as the extra base hits thing goes, who cares.. getting to 2nd base is getting to 2nd base.. the idea behind Wily Taveras is for him to be in scoring position when our big hitters come up. I don't care if he hits a double or gets a bunt single and steals 2nd on the next pitch.. just be on 2nd base, and I think he would be able to do that for us.

 

[greg775]

Why is WT better than Owens? Why?

[T R U]

Why is WT better than Owens? Why?

 

Uh, how is he not?

 

Aside from the fact Wily Taveras has been a regular starter in the MLB for 4 years now and Jerry Owens hasn't

 

They both cover a lot of ground in the OF, Owens has no arm.. Taveras has a gun

 

Taveras hit .320 in 2007, and aside from this year (with a leg injury) his career avg was in the .290's (Even so, its still .283).. Owens prolly couldn't even hit .280 in a full season, much less into the .300's

 

If you look at his first 3 years in the league, Taveras had gotten better each year until this year when he had a stress fracture in his leg.. A healthy Wily T is superior to Jerry Owens

[knightni]

I really wouldn't mind getting Taveras at all. Only 26 (turns 27 on Christmas Day)

 

OMG, Jesus in CF, God (TCQ) in LF.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Okay, so I have nothing better to do than look over some statistics to figure out what went wrong with Willy Taveras last year and why he was so bad. PS all the stats here were found at Baseball Reference, and whatever stats aren't there are stats I made by using Baseball References numbers, just so no one thinks I just pulled this out of my ass. Here goes...

 

Last year Willy Taveras either did the following things right or he did them better than he'd ever done before in the Majors:

 

1. Sacrifices: Willy had 18 in '08, previous career high 13

2. SB total: 68 was career high, previous career high of 34

3. SB%: 90% success rate was career high, previous best was 78% success rate

4. BB total: 36 was career high, previous high 34

5. BB rate: Career high in '08. If you take (PA - SH - SF - HBP) / BB to see his actual walk rate you get these numbers: 14.3 PA/BB in '08, 18.7 PA/BB in '07, 16.6 PA/BB in '06, 24.6 PA/BB in '05. 2008 was his career best walk rate.

6. K Rate: 2nd best of MLB career. If you take AB / K to look at his strikeout rate, you get: 6.1 AB/K in '08, 6.8 AB/K in '07, 6.0 AB/K in '06, 5.7 AB/K in '05.

7. Bunt hit total: 22 in '08 and .500 AVG on bunts ranks low for him, but still impressive. '07: 37 bunt hits, .712 AVG; '06: 21 bunt hits, .553 AVG; '05 28 bunt hits, .491 AVG

 

So what happened to Willy last year? His batting average obviously weighed him down, but why? Willy is an aggressive hitter, and he statistically resolves the PA by the third pitch. At first I thought his struggles might have been the result of a hitting coach telling him to be more patient and work the count deeper, but that wasn't the case. Here are the numbers:

 

Willy's numbers when the PA is resolved after 1 or 2 pitches:

2005: 216 PA (34% of total PA), 206 AB, 69 H, .335 AVG

2006: 169 PA (29% of total PA), 156 AB, 50 H, .321 AVG

2007: 144 PA (35% of total PA), 134 AB, 57 H, .425 AVG

2008: 181 PA (34% of total PA), 175 AB, 56 H, .320 AVG

Career: 33% of PA resolved after 1 or 2 pitches, .346 AVG

 

Willy's numbers when the PA is resolved after 3 pitches:

2005: 264 PA (42% of total PA), 252 AB, 65 H, .258 AVG

2006: 217 PA (37% of total PA), 205 AB, 61 H, .298 AVG

2007: 162 PA (40% of total PA), 155 AB, 49 H, .316 AVG

2008: 216 PA (40% of total PA), 193 AB, 50 H, .260 AVG

Career: 40% of PA resolved after 3 pitches, .280 AVG

 

Willy's numbers when the PA is resolved after 4+ pitches:

2005: 155 PA (24% of total PA), 134 AB, 38 H, .283 AVG

2006: 201 PA (34% of total PA), 168 AB, 36 H, .214 AVG

2007: 102 PA (25% of total PA), 83 AB, 13 H, .157 AVG

2008: 141 PA (26% of total PA), 111 AB, 14 H, .126 AVG

Career: 27% of PA resolved after 4+ pitches, .204 AVG

 

The most obvious conclusions are that:

1) Willy does a lot better hitting early because he will get bunt hits early

2) The numbers deep in the count are obviously going to be much, much smaller because he has two strikes on him

3) The count is a factor in deeper AB's because there is a huge difference between being down 1-2 and being up 2-1

 

This is all true, but the 3rd part about the count, Willy doesn't seem to be all that good much of the time when he is deep in the count, even when the count is in his favor:

2008: went 0-for-7 after up 3-0; went 18-for-64 (.265) after up 2-1; went 2-for-20 (.100) after up 3-1

2007: 1-for-4 after up 3-0; 12-for-55 (.218) after up 2-1; 3-for-14 (.214) after up 3-1

2006: 1-for-4 after up 3-0; 24-for-99 (.242) after up 2-1

2005: 0-for-3 after up 3-0; 20-for-78 (.256) after up 2-1

 

Admittedly I'm picking the unfavorable numbers here, but it looks like Willy seems to lose a bit of confidence as the count gets deeper. If you look at the numbers above organized by amount of pitches per plate appearance, you see a precipitous drop-off in batting average in plate appearances where he sees 4 or more pitches. It starts in 2005 and just falls like a rock all the way to this year.

 

There's supporting evidence for that BA after 4+ pitches drop too. Look specifically at the following counts over his career:

AVG on 1-2 Count: .194 in '05 (98 AB); .191 in '06 (68 AB); .176 in '07 (51 AB); .162 in '08 (74 AB)

AVG on 2-1 Count: .318 in '05 (22 AB); .417 in '06 (24 AB); .294 in '07 (17 AB); .321 in '08 (28 AB)

AVG on 3-0 Count: .000 in '05 (4 AB); .000 in '06 (5 AB); .000 in '07 (2 AB); .000 in '08 (8 AB)

AVG on 3-1 Count: .364 in '05 (11 AB); .308 in '06 (13 AB); .286 in '07 (7 AB); .200 in '08 (5 AB)

AVG on 3-2 Count: .286 in '05 (35 AB); .203 in '06 (64 AB); .212 in '07 (33 AB); .096 in '08 (52 AB)

 

Batting average on a 1-2 count drops steadily. 2-1 remains consistently good and 3-0 consistently bad. 3-1 batting average is falling, but the decline in 3-2 count batting average is scary as hell. THIS is where Willy's problem is.

 

Over his 4 year career, and I'm not counting a cup of coffee in 2004, Taveras will take 27% of his AB to the 4 pitch mark or beyond and end up with a .204 average overall batting average in those AB. Had Willy equaled his career line of .204 in AB past the 3 pitch mark he would have had 9 more hits raising his AVG from .251 to .269 and raised his OBP from .308 to .325.

 

Now here's my thinking. Willy came up in his first full season of '05 and played relaxed the whole year and that is why his numbers deep in the count, most specifically in the 1-2 and 3-2 counts are so good. He was not thinking about getting on base and fulfilling expectations of a lead-off man, he was just watching the ball and reacting. I cannot believe that the level of pitching in the National League improved so much to cause this, because if it did his other numbers would be affected, which they have not been. Somehow after '05 the pressure on him mounted and he probably ended up overthinking at the plate. When he went to Colorado, maybe somebody told him to walk more or something, or he felt that he needed to. If there was a stat about called third strikes on 3-2 counts it could be very telling in regards to Taveras.

 

All Willy needs to be a better player is a manager that will 1) encourage early and often bunting, especially on the slower grass at the Cell that will make it harder on the 3B to come in and will force the catcher to make a throw behind the runner more often, 2) a hitting coach who will take pressure off of him and basically do nothing at all except tell him to NOT worry about the walk and instead be aggressive, especially on 3-2, and 3) a winning environment in front of loud fans who will cheer him for every stolen base or bunt hit and boost his confidence, allowing him to focus on his best skills and forget about whatever it is that is causing him to lose confidence late in his at-bats.

 

So in all, TRADE FOR WILLY TAVERAS!!! He's a great buy-low candidate and all he needs is a confidence boost, which I strongly believe he'll get in Chicago. Don't wait around, he could end up our next Podsednik, except this one can actually play CF.

 

Oh, and get Maicer Izturis to play 2B too if he's available. He'd be a great second baseman, 2-hole hitter, and complement to Taveras until Beckham arrives. Then he can be a UT guy.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I would have posted this in the other Willy Taveras thread but it's about real analysis, not trade rumors or bulls*** about whose OPS is better, so I started a new thread. Sorry if that pisses anyone off.

[GreatScott82]

If you can get Willy T. for Lance Broadway or Boone Logan, you make the deal! I have always been a fan of a speedy 9-1-2 lineup. Meaning Willy Tavarez can start the year at the 9 spot and if he shows he is capable of having a much higher OBP, than move him up! Meanwhile, after Dye gets traded, you move CQ to RF. Then you make a strong push for DeJesus...

 

And with all the money left over from trading Dye and Vazquez, you go ahead and sign Furcal and shock the baseball world!

 

 

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

OKay so I just realized how long this is. If it doesn't make sense just let me know. Basically, the numbers say the guy doesn't suck. The numbers say he's probably having some mental issues late in AB's that have caused his batting average to drop and his OBP which is tied strongly to his batting average to drop as well. All he needs is to get whatever it is he's thinking about out of his head and become aggressive. He was obviously seeing the ball last year or else he wouldn't have been able to still hit at a very good clip in about 60% of his AB's last year which were early in the count.

[beck72]

Good work. You do have too much time on your hands.

 

I did read reports about Hurdle and staff trying to change Taveras' hitting approach. Trying to make Taveras be more patient seems like trying to change Alexei. You take away his aggressiveness, and you make a guy lose confidence and have him thinking at the plate too much instead of letting his natural abilities take over. And esp. last year with benching Willy early in the year. Throw in a young Latino who moved from a diverse Houston to a lily white Denver and the cultural changes/ adjustments of the trade may come into play as well. He should be far more comfortable with the sox clubhouse and the diversity of the city of Chicago.

 

I remember watching Taveras in the 2005 World Series. Here was a guy who showed 5 tools during that series and was an exciting player. He's not that far removed from that success. For the cost of acquiring him [which should not be much, a bullpen arm that really won't help the sox in 2009] the possible reward far outweighs the risks involved.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Good work. You do have too much time on your hands.

 

I did read reports about Hurdle and staff trying to change Taveras' hitting approach. Trying to make Taveras be more patient seems like trying to change Alexei. You take away his aggressiveness, and you make a guy lose confidence and have him thinking at the plate too much instead of letting his natural abilities take over. And esp. last year with benching Willy early in the year. Throw in a young Latino who moved from a diverse Houston to a lily white Denver and the cultural changes/ adjustments of the trade may come into play as well. He should be far more comfortable with the sox clubhouse and the diversity of the city of Chicago.

 

I remember watching Taveras in the 2005 World Series. Here was a guy who showed 5 tools during that series and was an exciting player. He's not that far removed from that success. For the cost of acquiring him [which should not be much, a bullpen arm that really won't help the sox in 2009] the possible reward far outweighs the risks involved.

I decided that staying up and trying to figure out why Willy Taveras was bad last year was more important than sleeping. Don't need it anyway.

 

The surprising thing about the numbers though is that when you look at he often he ends an AB in 1-2 pitches, or 3 pitches, or 4+ pitches it all comes out very, very close and is perfectly in line with his career. The guy wasn't any less aggressive early in the count last year, he just was late in the count, which was a continuation of a slide that began in his second year. So whatever Hurdle and those guys told him, you can see that it only affected him with 2 strikes, and it hit him really, really hard in full counts. I think he was going up to the plate ready to swing, but when he ended up getting 3 balls he completely changed his mindset, probably because of what Hurdle or whoever their hitting coach had said. His AVG w/ a full count completely fell off the planet, and he had a lot of AB with a full count last year. If he lifts that, given that he improved every other bit of his game, he would have had a career year or close to it last year.

 

God damn, I feel like I'm like a Willy Taveras expert now. WTF?

Edited November 29, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects