Cabrera offered arbitration

[DBAHO]

Once people notice this I bet they get real hot.

 

My only hope is this was leaked to force an interested party into making a multi-year offer.

My guess is if he does sign, KW does what he can to trade him.

 

It's the worst case scenario for the Sox right here though.

 

And with the Tigers trading for Wilson, what type of a market is there for OC ATM?

[RockRaines]

Once people notice this I bet they get real hot.

 

My only hope is this was leaked to force an interested party into making a multi-year offer.

Im not that upset about it, he's a good player, but it really hurts our flexibility. I think the team needs those draft picks more than anything.

[Steve9347]

Im not that upset about it, he's a good player, but it really hurts our flexibility. I think the team needs those draft picks more than anything.

Ugh, the last thing I want is to have him back. We're having a nice house-cleaning right now.

 

Are there any restrictions on trading a guy who accepts arbitration?

[DBAHO]

I found this about Arbitration (don't know if it says anything about trading someone who accepts though);

 

Teams had until Monday to decide whether to offer their free agents arbitration. As I’ve written before, I consider this to be something of a bright-line test of competence for an organization, as the risks and rewards are clear, and in almost all cases favor making the offer. Article XX, Section B(3) of the current CBA (thanks, Maury) states:

 

The former Club of a free agent, no later than by the December 1 following the free agency election period, may offer to proceed with the Player to salary arbitration under Article VI of this Agreement, for the next following season. The Club’s offer shall be communicated to the LRD, which shall notify the Association in writing. Said offer shall be effective upon receipt by the Association and the Club will not be permitted to retract the offer. If the former Club of the free agent does not so offer, it shall lose all rights to compensation under Section B(4) of this Article XX with respect to that free agent.

 

On or before December 7, the Player may accept the Club’s offer to arbitrate. The Player’s acceptance shall be communicated to the Association, which shall notify the LRD. The Player’s failure to accept the Club’s offer on or before December 7 shall be deemed to constitute rejection of the offer.

 

If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI; provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.

 

The choice for the club is pretty simple. If the player is valuable enough to warrant a one-year contract, offer him arbitration. You will get draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, and if he does not, you will have a good player signed to a one-year deal. Remember that the risk in signing free agents is almost always performance after the first season; we generally have a good handle on what any player might do the next year, so evaluating whether you want any player for one year is simply a matter of estimating performance and salary. The Venn diagram that shows “players who are good enough to return a draft pick” in one circle and “players who wouldn’t be worth signing to a one-year deal at an arbitrated salary” intersects in a very, very tiny space.

 

I’m damned sure that Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettitte don’t fall into that space.

 

The Yankees made a mistake by not offering arbitration to either player, the biggest mistakes any team made in this round of decisions. For a team with the Yankees’ revenues, especially as they move into an ATM with foul poles, to decline the services of above-average players or draft picks in the event of their departure is a stunning waste of resources. Bobby Abreu projects as a five- or six-win player, Pettitte a bit below that. Even if you account for the fact that the Yankees may not have much room to grow marginal revenues for the next two years or so, those wins are valuable because they could be the difference between making the postseason and missing it.

 

Certainly there’s no baseball reason to not want either player. In Abreu’s absence, the Yankees nominally have an outfield of Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui, with Nick Swisher at first base. Abreu is better than all of those players, and if having him would create a logjam, it does so by forcing inferior talent to the bench, the waiver wire or the trade market. Pettitte was the team’s #3 starter last year, and would project as the #4 even if the Yankees were to sign multiple starters in the free-agent market.

 

All of that assumes, of course, that the players accept arbitration, foregoing multi-year contracts at market salaries to take a one-year contract with the Yankees. The more likely scenario is that both players would sign elsewhere (or in Pettitte’s case, retire), allowing the Yankees to collect two draft picks for each, either a #1 and a sandwich pick or a #2 and a sandwich pick. Even with the Yankees’…mixed…record in the draft of late, forfeiting the right to those picks is an enormous waste.

 

Two days ago, the Yankees had assets in Abreu and Pettitte that could have been considered short-term investments with minimal risk and fairly certain benefit (were they to rejoin the club), or long-term investments with more risk and uncertain benefit, but higher upside (were they to become draft picks). Now, they have nothing. How a team with the cash reserves of the Yankees can make a choice like that is inexplicable, and recalls the decision to forego the services of Carlos Beltran three years ago, a decision also motivated by short-term cash concerns.

 

The inability to balance risk and reward wasn’t restricted to the Bronx. By my count, there were 50 Type A or Type B free agents, one of whom, Jeremy Affeldt, had already signed and will be treated as if he were offered arbitration. That left 49 who could have been offered arbitration, and just 24 were. Of those 24, just five strike me as possibly questionable, and at that, I’m not sure you can criticize any team for rolling the dice on getting the draft pick. Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, Darren Oliver, Dennys Reyes and Brian Shouse are all marginal talents that could accept the offer, but only Blake and maybe Byrd would make enough in arbitration to outweigh their 2009 contributions or make eating their contract painful.

 

On the other hand, the list of players who were not offered arbitration includes a whole bunch of guys in the same situation as Abreu and Pettitte. The Phillies punted Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, both Type A free agents, in a situation identical to that of the Yankees. They have the money and the absence of the players is not easily rectified. Having both on one-year deals would have been a solid solution, and giving up the shot at draft picks is a waste. The Diamondbacks may not be terribly attached to Adam Dunn, but as much as they need his OBP, they should have dangled arbitration. See also Johnson, Randy, given their questions behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in the rotation. The Cubs allowed Kerry Wood-arguably the perfect pitcher to have one year at a time, given his health history-to walk.

 

You can’t even argue any longer that these decisions freeze a team. A player offered arbitration has until just December 7 to accept or decline, allowing a team to go to the winter meetings without uncertainty. Moreover, the player can be traded at midseason (beginning June 16), and sooner should you get his permission. Theres is simply no reason, even given the externalities present, for teams to be as risk-averse as they were in this process. The risk isn’t great enough, and the reward is considerable.

 

So credit the Dodgers for offering arbitration to Derek Lowe and Manny Ramirez, and the Brewers their decision to offer it to Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, and the Angels to Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Even if those players accept, and even if that creates a higher payroll in the short term, no MLB team has to be so concerned with cashflow that it can’t accept having good players on one-year deals. The more likely scenario is that these teams will reap the benefits of their decision down the road, when the players they take with the draft picks they get as compensation begin contributing, or becoming valuable properties in trade.

[fathom]

Just go away OC, just go away. No one in the organization wants you here.

[daa84]

if we have cabrera at SS...there are worse things really...at least its only for a year...we'd like to have the draft picks sure, but who is to say a top 15 team in the draft wouldn't sign him, and wed just get a sandwich pick....besides it might keep alexei out of SS and perhaps even into CF....i know he costs a ton more, but im fairly certain he would give us way more than anything lillibridge would give us

[daa84]

so, if OC accepts arbitration...i assume then we will work out a 1 year deal before the case reaches the arbiter, thats what usually happens right? if thats the case, then we can't trade him as theres a rule against "sign and trades" in the mlb, right?

 

Edit: in thinking about this...its a moot point i suppose....on just a 1 year deal, nobody will want to give up anything of substance for OC, so if if he accepts he's playing SS for us next year.

Edited December 4, 2008 by daa84

[NorthSideSox72]

I really hope he doesn't accept.

 

But, if he does, I would not be opposed to Alexei moving to CF, thus (hopefully) solving that problem. That does make the team a bit stronger, unless Alexei is awful in CF.

 

[fathom]

I really hope he doesn't accept.

 

But, if he does, I would not be opposed to Alexei moving to CF, thus (hopefully) solving that problem. That does make the team a bit stronger, unless Alexei is awful in CF.

 

If OC accepts, you have to keep Alexei at 2B.

[NorthSideSox72]

If OC accepts, you have to keep Alexei at 2B.

Well, maybe not. Think about these alternatives:

 

--Alexei in CF, Getz or Nix at 2B

or

--Anderson or Owens in CF, Alexei at 2B

 

So really, its a comparison of Getz/Nix and Anderson/Owens. Which would you rather have?

 

I personally think that Getz is going to be a solid major league 2B, but I know I am in the minority. So I'd prefer not starting Owens/Anderson.

 

[sircaffey]

If I were KW, I'd tell him we're going young up the middle with Alexei and Brent up the middle. You're welcome back but you'd be splitting time, and likely are not going to get much more than 300 AB.

[Kalapse]

if we have cabrera at SS...there are worse things really...at least its only for a year...we'd like to have the draft picks sure, but who is to say a top 15 team in the draft wouldn't sign him, and wed just get a sandwich pick....besides it might keep alexei out of SS and perhaps even into CF....i know he costs a ton more, but im fairly certain he would give us way more than anything lillibridge would give us

If a top 15 team signed Orlando we'd get a sandwich pick and that team's early 2nd round pick, that's still a nice haul. Sure he'll give you more than Lillibridge, at 25 to 30 times the price. It's going to cost the Sox $10M to $12M to keep him around. That seems like an awful lot for an underwhelming middle infielder.

[supernuke]

If I were KW, I'd tell him we're going young up the middle with Alexei and Brent up the middle. You're welcome back but you'd be splitting time, and likely are not going to get much more than 300 AB.

 

If they really don't want him back they should tell him he will be the back up catcher.

[fathom]

Well, maybe not. Think about these alternatives:

 

--Alexei in CF, Getz or Nix at 2B

or

--Anderson or Owens in CF, Alexei at 2B

 

So really, its a comparison of Getz/Nix and Anderson/Owens. Which would you rather have?

 

I personally think that Getz is going to be a solid major league 2B, but I know I am in the minority. So I'd prefer not starting Owens/Anderson.

 

Give me Anderson over the 2b combo.

[daa84]

If OC accepts, you have to keep Alexei at 2B.

assuming we acquire no further players (which clearly we will), im not sure that its that clear cut...who plays CF? BA? love his D but he's been an awful offensive player (waits for response by some soxtalker to say just give him a chance everyday)....at this point id be willing to at least take a look at the other guys (getz, lillibridge, nix, betemit, maybe even gordo by the end of the year) over BA and Owens

[Cerbaho-WG]

If true, this is a pretty epic troll job by OC.

[EvilJester99]

In one of the updates it said OC said there was a "slight chance" he will accept it....lets hope he doesn't.

[southsideirish71]

In one of the updates it said OC said there was a "slight chance" he will accept it....lets hope he doesn't.

 

Jessie Rodgers just stated that on a conference call with Kenny, he asked what happens if Cabrera accepts arbitration. Kenny stated that Alexei is our SS, and one of the young guys will be our 2nd baseman. If Cabrera comes back, he will be on the bench.

Edited December 4, 2008 by southsideirish71

[Steve9347]

Jessie Rodgers just stated that on a conference call with Kenny, he asked what happens if Cabrera accepts arbitration. Kenny stated that Alexei is our SS, and one of the young guys will be our 2nd baseman. If Cabrera comes back, he will be on the bench.

I f***ing love Kenny.

 

It was also stated that the arbiter is not allowed to take the economy as a factor when ruling. That doesn't make any sense.

[R.J.]

No way he accepts. Seriously. He's saying he might to rile everyone up and get some team to step up with a multiyear deal.

[Hatchetman]

Jessie Rodgers just stated that on a conference call with Kenny, he asked what happens if Cabrera accepts arbitration. Kenny stated that Alexei is our SS, and one of the young guys will be our 2nd baseman. If Cabrera comes back, he will be on the bench.

 

Kenny is so funny. He reminds me of a stern father lecturing his son. "You'll be on the bench, kiddo!"

 

Yeah, right. $12 mil riding the pines.

[EvilJester99]

Well that should make OC's choice easy then...

[daa84]

Jessie Rodgers just stated that on a conference call with Kenny, he asked what happens if Cabrera accepts arbitration. Kenny stated that Alexei is our SS, and one of the young guys will be our 2nd baseman. If Cabrera comes back, he will be on the bench.

haha nice...i think thats kenny playing hardball...a year riding pine destroys OCs market value next year and in the long run, OC would lose money by taking arbitration, even if he can't quite get the deal he wants right now

[DBAHO]

Jessie Rodgers just stated that on a conference call with Kenny, he asked what happens if Cabrera accepts arbitration. Kenny stated that Alexei is our SS, and one of the young guys will be our 2nd baseman. If Cabrera comes back, he will be on the bench.

A $10M bench player.

 

FWIW, I think the Sox still made the right move in offering OC arbitration.

 

They just have to hope, that with Renteria and Wilson both off the market, a team in desperate need of a SS is going to come crawling towards OC.

 

I still think Minny may be the best best, but not if they sign Blake, so you have to hope that the Dodgers re-sign him.

 

It looks like the A's are going to sign Furcal, so count them out.

 

The Angels could be a wildcard, but they got decent enough production from Izturis and co. in 2008.

 

Would the Blue-Jays look at him possibly (I think Scutaro is their starting SS ATM)?

 

The Cards have just acquired Khalil Greene so count them out.

[BaseballNick]

Kenny is so funny. He reminds me of a stern father lecturing his son. "You'll be on the bench, kiddo!"

 

Yeah, right. $12 mil riding the pines.

 

He'd be traded for less than market value if he accepts arb. OC will have a job somewhere.