Speculation: Is this a precursor to a Peavy Deal?

[fathom]

PEAVY WOULD NEVER ACCEPT A TRADE TO THE WHITE SOX! He's already declined a potential trade to an AL team in a small ballpark.

[Dick Allen]

Also, do you think KW could maybe try to go after Khalil Greene as well if he was chasing Peavy?

Why?

[DBAHO]

Why?

If he could get him cheaply, so Ramirez stays at 2B or moves to CF, and you have the Getz/Nix/Lillibridge battle for 2B.

 

Greene had a terrible 2008, but his away splits in 05, 06 and 07 away from PETCO have been an OPS above .800 IIRC.

[Fotop]

PEAVY WOULD NEVER ACCEPT A TRADE TO THE WHITE SOX! He's already declined a potential trade to an AL team in a small ballpark.

 

Who? Boston? I think it had something to do with playing in the Northeast. If it's a weather issue, then obviously the midwest isn't much better. Regardless, if SD is dead-set on trading him, and have exhausted their current options, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Clearly it's not probable, but I don't think it's something that shouldn't be discussed.

[southsider2k5]

FWIW, you aren't the only one thinking like this...

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/88456-c...-for-jake-peavy

 

Upon further review, perhaps there's a sleeper in the running for Jake Peavy that hasn't yet been considered...and it wouldn't be far from one of the destinations he previously OK'd.

 

After trading away Javier Vazquez to Atlanta in a deal that appeared to formally take the Braves out of the running for Peavy, the Chicago White Sox may have positioned themselves perfectly to make a move for the 2007 Cy Young winner.

 

Let's look at the deals White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams has already made this offseason:

 

- Traded OF/1B Nick Swisher to the New York Yankees for a package of UTIL Wilson Betemit and pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

 

- Traded SP Javier Vazquez and RP Boone Logan to Atlanta for a package that has not yet been completely detailed, but it is rumored there will be one or two starting pitching prospects in the deal. Names that have been linked to the deal have been pitchers Jo-Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton, as well as middle infield prospect Brent Lillibridge and catcher Ty Flowers.

 

- Signed 2B Jayson Nix.

 

- Signed 3B Dayan Viciedo.

 

What has this accomplished for the Sox?

 

First off, it cleared the final two years and $23 million that Vazquez is owed off the books, as well as moving Swisher's contract that has escalating salaries of $5.3, $6.75 and $9 million the next three seasons. As near as I can tell, that's over $41 million off the Sox bottom line between 2009 and 2011.

 

In return for Swisher the Sox acquired Marquez, who was one of the top prospects in the Yankees organization, and will acquire apparently one of the better pitching prospects in the Braves organization for Vazquez.

 

Also consider that the Padres have asked for one thing consistently in all public reports about the Peavy Sweepstakes: they want young starting pitching. Both Reyes and Morton were names linked to the Peavy talks with Atlanta.

 

Now place Marquez and whichever starter the Sox get from Atlanta into the context of a team that has done a great job of stockpiling young arms in previous drafts and trades. The White Sox have a youngster named Aaron Poreda that many scouts think might work his way into the Sox rotation out of spring training next year. The Sox also have two young starters in their rotation already in Gavin Floyd and John Danks.

 

There are others in the Sox organization that could also be included in a deal for Peavy. Lance Broadway, Clayton Richard and John Ely are all highly regarded youngsters. In fact, Baseball America has pitchers ranked as three of the top eight prospects in the Sox system entering 2009 (Poreda, Richard and Ely), not including the arms acquired this Winter.

 

So the pitchers are there to make the deal.

 

The Sox also have depth in their infield. At third base, the Sox have the Cuban 19-year old Viciedo, Josh Fields and now Betemit. Fields had a nice season covering for injured Joe Crede in 2007, hitting 23 home runs in 100 games.

 

In the middle of the infield, Rookie of the Year runner-up Alexei Ramirez isn't going anywhere but moving from second base to shortstop. But around him the Sox have sudden depth that's both talented and young.

 

2008 first round draft pick Gordon Beckham is a shortstop by trade but might make a move to second to accommodate Ramirez. The Sox signed Nix, are now allegedly trading for Lillibridge, and also have highly regarded prospects Chris Getz and Eduardo Escobar as middle infielders in their system.

 

So the Sox have a bounty of young position players that could make a deal work as well.

 

When you consider Peavy's contract, the deal ordinarily would be out of the question. Williams has never been one to assume a large contract without at least splitting the cost with the other franchise (has done so with both Cincinnati for Ken Griffey and Philadelphia for Jim Thome).

 

But look at how much Peavy will earn in the coming seasons. He's due $8 million in 2009 and then escalating salaries of $15, $16, and $17 million from 2010-12 before a $22 million club option in 2013. Swisher and Vazquez were set to make $16.8 in 2009 and $18.25 million in 2010, both well more than Peavy's contract value for those two seasons.

 

The White Sox also have moneys coming off their books in the future that could afford them the ability to take on the size of Peavy's contract in 2011 and 2012. Jim Thome's $13 million salary (albeit being split between Philly and the Sox) comes off the books after 2009. Paul Konerko's $12 million annual salary ends after 2010, as does Jose Contreras' $10 million. These contracts expiring, as well as those of Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye and AJ Pierzynski, give the White Sox more than enough financial ability to make the move for Peavy.

 

Kenny Williams made the first splash of the winter when he traded Swisher to New York. He made the first big splash of the winter by moving Vazquez to Atlanta before any of the major free agent arms has signed.

 

Could he be laying the foundation for a surprise move that could land Peavy in Chicago...but on the South Side?

[kwolf68]

Absolutely NOT...none of these guys we got were in the Padres plans.

[caulfield12]

That's all fine and good, but we didn't get back Morton or Reyes.

 

They would be interested in Poreda for sure, but the likes of Richard, Broadway and Ely? Not so much...at least not as the centerpieces of any Peavy trade. I would gladly give them Poreda, Richard, Broadway and Ely and it still wouldn't be enough to get the deal done.

[Cerbaho-WG]

FWIW, you aren't the only one thinking like this...

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/88456-c...-for-jake-peavy

 

That post is nice and everything, but we're not getting Morton and Reyes. Theoretically this would have to be something like a Marquez, Poreda, Fields, top flight prospect for Peavy. I sincerely doubt that will happen.

[caulfield12]

If the Yankees could have packaged Marquez and Hughes/Kennedy for Peavy, don't you think they would have done it already?

 

Especially in light of the very high likelihood that Lowe and Sabathia go elsewhere and they're left with AJ Burnett aka Future Pavano.

[Fotop]

If the Yankees could have packaged Marquez and Hughes/Kennedy for Peavy, don't you think they would have done it already?

 

Especially in light of the very high likelihood that Lowe and Sabathia go elsewhere and they're left with AJ Burnett aka Future Pavano.

 

If the Yanks wouldn't move Hughes for Santana, who's to say he was ever on the table for Peavy? I think they're going to let Hughes run his course in pinstripes because they're afraid they'd never hear the end of it if he was dealt and turns into a star. Kennedy's star is considerably tarnished. SD likely doesn't want Melky Cabrera so who else could the Yanks move w/Marquez?

 

The point of all of this, at least for me, is that the Sox have more bullets in the gun to swing a deal like this than they did before dealing Swish and Vazquez. It remains to be seen whether there's enough talent to nab someone like Peavy but you can't deny they're in a better position to deal now with a team looking to rebuild than they were two trades ago.

 

 

[elrockinMT]

Call me crazy, but could the Javy deal be the launching point paving the way for Peavy to come to the White Sox? I'm sure there's no trade clauses and such to be sorted, but I for one would welcome this idea.

 

I'm sure we'd have to relinquish some of our guys as well (Fields? Poreda? the standard speculation) but if you can turn this into a Vasquez + prospects for Peavy deal (essentially), I say you do it. A right handed, legitimate power pitcher, would profile nicely in our rotation. Peavy/Buerhle/Floyd/Danks/5th is solid.

 

Furthermore, SD is in a bind...the payroll restrictions are tying up everything they need to get done. They have said they need to move Peavy, so why not us?

 

Thoughts? Am I nuts? Has this already been talked about extensively and I missed it?

 

 

It's best not to speculate on this type of stuff. I would think that if the prospects you mention were coveted by SD they would have made a trade with Atlanta and not the Sox. Ours sytem is pretty thin at the major league ready level plus those top prospects and a regualr or two from the Sox would be a real high price to pay for a pitcher from SD.

[Fotop]

It's best not to speculate on this type of stuff. I would think that if the prospects you mention were coveted by SD they would have made a trade with Atlanta and not the Sox. Ours sytem is pretty thin at the major league ready level plus those top prospects and a regualr or two from the Sox would be a real high price to pay for a pitcher from SD.

 

A few things:

 

1) It's best not to speculate on this type of stuff? This is a message board, correct? Hate to be so blunt/flippant, but what else would there be to talk about this time of year?

 

2) We have no idea what happened between ATL/SD. For all we know they were a player off or something and some of the guys we got from ATL were mentioned at some point in discussions.

 

3) I should have clarified, if we were to get Peavy it'd be a grab bag of the prospects we got from the yanks, atlanta, and some of our own most likely.

 

4) A couple guys potentially involved (marquez, fields, lillibridge, poreda, etc) are major league ready. It's not like they're going to get 4 ML ready players for Peavy...Santana only commanded one, why is Peavy different?

 

[elrockinMT]

A few things:

 

1) It's best not to speculate on this type of stuff? This is a message board, correct? Hate to be so blunt/flippant, but what else would there be to talk about this time of year?

 

2) We have no idea what happened between ATL/SD. For all we know they were a player off or something and some of the guys we got from ATL were mentioned at some point in discussions.

 

3) I should have clarified, if we were to get Peavy it'd be a grab bag of the prospects we got from the yanks, atlanta, and some of our own most likely.

 

4) A couple guys potentially involved (marquez, fields, lillibridge, poreda, etc) are major league ready. It's not like they're going to get 4 ML ready players for Peavy...Santana only commanded one, why is Peavy different?

 

 

OK! You go ahead and speculate all you want.

[DukeNukeEm]

Is there anybody else who doesnt want Jake Peavy? Like at all?

[th0mas35]

Is there anybody else who doesnt want Jake Peavy? Like at all?

 

pretty sure you'd be the only one.

[caulfield12]

Is there anybody else who doesnt want Jake Peavy? Like at all?

 

 

Jerry Reinsdorf?

 

[103 mph screwball]

I don't know if Peavy is possible. However, I guarantee KW has asked. KW thinks BIG, he's creative, and he's persistent. There does seem to be an abundance of infielders that is starting to make me think KW will not only be trading away big named players, it is becoming more likely that he will be trading for a big name talent. KW is not preparing for the kids can pay 2009. Payroll may end up lower next year, and that may be the smart thing to do. It won't be THAT low.

[103 mph screwball]

Jerry Reinsdorf?

 

Jerry is not getting any younger and I'm sure another World Series would make him as happy as it would make us if not more so. Reinsdorf will also make budgetary exceptions for exceptional talent. It's been discussed frequently on this board how the Sox lack a true ace. Peavy would qualify and make all of the other pitcher better.

Peavy

MB

Danks

Floyd

JC/a young pitcher from the system/a short term vet such as Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez

This staff would be loaded for bear and aiming beyond a central title.

 

Fun to think about on this fine December evening.

We really should have a pool to guess who is on the final roster / starting lineup to see who can predict KW the closest.

 

[caulfield12]

Jerry is not getting any younger and I'm sure another World Series would make him as happy as it would make us if not more so. Reinsdorf will also make budgetary exceptions for exceptional talent. It's been discussed frequently on this board how the Sox lack a true ace. Peavy would qualify and make all of the other pitcher better.

Peavy

MB

Danks

Floyd

JC/a young pitcher from the system/a short term vet such as Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez

This staff would be loaded for bear and aiming beyond a central title.

 

Fun to think about on this fine December evening.

We really should have a pool to guess who is on the final roster / starting lineup to see who can predict KW the closest.

 

 

I'm not sure I agree there...I think he is a bit more content with the World Series title under his belt. There's a large number of Sox fans who feel that way. Then there's KW, who is driven to win every year and usurp the Cubs' role as Chicago's team.

 

I'm not going to say I agree or disagree with any of the moves so far...only that the recession that former President Clinton predicted would take 15 months to 2 years to shake free from (if they make the right decisions in the new administration) is giving KW and JR additional cover to lower the payroll a bit, at least as of today, it appears we're headed back down to the $85-100 million range, if not a little lower. You can say JR is either brilliant or greedy or a combination of both, knowing that raising ticket prices was only possible coming off the AL Central Division championship, when he held the deposits from playoff ticket sales.

 

Of course, look at 2005 and that was far and away our cheapest team of the last four years.

 

There's certainly something to be said for having younger, hungrier players like the Twins, Rays, etc. Everyone has known for years now that the middle of the order would need to be broken up, that we were too station to station and reliant upon the homer. However, that's they way you win at USCF (look at Thome's GW HR against MIN), along with quality starting pitching and a good bullpen.

 

The first phase was jettisoning Lee, Ordonez, Thomas and Valentin. Now we're in Phase II, with Konerko, Dye and Thome.

 

By 2011, we will have an almost entirely different line-up, and one that's mostly homegrown, hopefully.

 

Also, look at all the bad contracts the Tigers have or had, like Renteria, Dontrelle Willis, Sheffield, Pudge Rodriguez. At least we're sitting here with only two issues on our roster, Contreras and MacDougal. Konerko could be traded without eating any salary after the way he finished the season. We have a ton of flexibility now with our payroll, infield depth and re-invigorated farm system. It's fun to see so much "fresh blood" coming into the fold, and not Andy Gonzalez, Wasserman, Fields and Owens, but legit All-Star caliber players in the future.

[maggliopipe]

His injury last year is kinda worrisome so there is a small cause for concern but hell it's Jake Peavy, bring him on. And of course he'd waive his NTC if for no other reason than to play with BFF and fellow redneck Scott Linebrink.

[103 mph screwball]

His injury last year is kinda worrisome so there is a small cause for concern but hell it's Jake Peavy, bring him on. And of course he'd waive his NTC if for no other reason than to play with BFF and fellow redneck Scott Linebrink.

Linebrink would be in a position to tell him how fun it is to play for the Sox. The plot thickens.

[Lemon_44]

Peavy's price tage has had to drop significantly. The Braves are out and the Cubs have said they are out. Those were the two main suitors to drive his price tag up. They said they want a young,MLB ready pitcher. Start with Richard and see where it goes.

[Marky Mark]

Is there anybody else who doesnt want Jake Peavy? Like at all?

 

 

I definitely do not want Peavy. Is he a good pitcher? Yes. Is he an elite pitcher? No.

 

Peavy stats at Petco:

 

ERA= 2.66

WHIP=1.07

 

Peavy stats in away games:

ERA=3.80

WHIP=1.30

 

Hmmm.....

 

Lets try this,

 

 

Peavy career vs. AL:

44ER in 121 IP = 3.27 ERA

 

Not too bad, but then look closer to see that he's had 40.2 IP against Seattle (A third of his AL games)

 

Peavy vs (AL - SEA)=

35 ER in 80.1 IP = 3.92 ERA

 

My point is, taking Peavy out of his stadium raises his ERA. Then taking Peavy out of his league raises his ERA even more.

 

So do I want us to pay for him in prospects and salary like he's an elite pitcher? Nope, because he's a good pitcher, not an elite one. Unfortunately the Padres should be smart enough to sell him as if his numbers will remain the same in any park in any league. He is simply not worth the cost. I'd much rather go for a lesser pitcher that would be more cost effective in terms of salary and prospects. Or, I'd much rather just hold onto the 'spects, hold onto the money and just wait for the right opportunity to come along. That opportunity is just not this one.

 

NO PEAVY!

[Marky Mark]

Also, do you think KW could maybe try to go after Khalil Greene as well if he was chasing Peavy?

 

 

According to Rotoworld, Khalil is on the verge of getting traded to an undlisclosed team. Probably us, we could use more infielders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not really.

Edited December 4, 2008 by Markbilliards

[caulfield12]

I definitely do not want Peavy. Is he a good pitcher? Yes. Is he an elite pitcher? No.

 

Peavy stats at Petco:

 

ERA= 2.66

WHIP=1.07

 

Peavy stats in away games:

ERA=3.80

WHIP=1.30

 

Hmmm.....

 

Lets try this,

 

 

Peavy career vs. AL:

44ER in 121 IP = 3.27 ERA

 

Not too bad, but then look closer to see that he's had 40.2 IP against Seattle (A third of his AL games)

 

Peavy vs (AL - SEA)=

35 ER in 80.1 IP = 3.92 ERA

 

My point is, taking Peavy out of his stadium raises his ERA. Then taking Peavy out of his league raises his ERA even more.

 

So do I want us to pay for him in prospects and salary like he's an elite pitcher? Nope, because he's a good pitcher, not an elite one. Unfortunately the Padres should be smart enough to sell him as if his numbers will remain the same in any park in any league. He is simply not worth the cost. I'd much rather go for a lesser pitcher that would be more cost effective in terms of salary and prospects. Or, I'd much rather just hold onto the 'spects, hold onto the money and just wait for the right opportunity to come along. That opportunity is just not this one.

 

NO PEAVY!

 

Good quick research! I'll agree....and also disagree with whoever said that Clayton Richard could be close to consideration as a "centerpiece" of any deal for Peavy. It starts at Poreda, Fields or Allen and another prospect....second/third tier.