Rumors: Sox/Reds Talking Dye for Bailey Swap

[GoodAsGould]

Twins signed Punto today. I can't see them signing OC.

 

I find it hard to believe that any team, especially one hoping to contend for the playoffs would have Nick Punto as a starter, I have no problems with him as a utility guy, but he is a pretty poor starter.

[fathom]

I find it hard to believe that any team, especially one hoping to contend for the playoffs would have Nick Punto as a starter, I have no problems with him as a utility guy, but he is a pretty poor starter.

 

They gave him a ton of money

[G&T]

I don't see Bobby Abreu signing with the Reds, regardless of whether or not they are interested in him (they need a righty bat, not a lefty bat) at this stage of his career.

 

I would think he is ours for the taking if we do indeed get this Dye deal completed...

 

I agree with you, but, as I posted in the other thread, any savings the Sox get from signing Abreu will likely be passed to the Reds for the prospects. Until we have a better idea of Abreu's value is in this market, no deal will be made.

[Kalapse]

I find it hard to believe that any team, especially one hoping to contend for the playoffs would have Nick Punto as a starter, I have no problems with him as a utility guy, but he is a pretty poor starter.

$8.5M over 2 years is a s*** load of money to be paying a utility guy.

[ptatc]

More importantly, when did he become a pro scout? lol. I've never seen a poster from a message board put so much stock into "Well, I saw him in person. I know for a fact he sucksssssssssss" as much as he is.

 

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but at least he makes a judgement after seeing the player as opposed to some posters judging players only through numbers without seeing them in person.

 

[ThunderBolt]

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but at least he makes a judgement after seeing the player as opposed to some posters judging players only through numbers without seeing them in person.

You do realize that it’s irrational to make judgments on players based on seeing him once, right? It’s equally irrational to discount the value of what the player has done throughout the year. How can you say stats are meaningless?

[GoodAsGould]

$8.5M over 2 years is a s*** load of money to be paying a utility guy.

 

Wasnt aware they gave him that much, why would a team so financially tight give that much money to a scrub like Punto.

[fathom]

You do realize that it's irrational to make judgments on players based on seeing him once, right? It's equally irrational to discount the value of what the player has done throughout the year. How can you say stats are meaningless?

 

WSF101 saw the same Bailey starts for the Reds that I did. His stuff was extremely underwhelming in those games.

[ptatc]

You do realize that it’s irrational to make judgments on players based on seeing him once, right? It’s equally irrational to discount the value of what the player has done throughout the year. How can you say stats are meaningless?

 

I never said stats are meaningless. I said I wouldn't pass judgement on a players ability and project his future performance based on numbers alone.

 

Also, he said that he saw him multiple times not just once.

 

But if you want to make extreme arguement while calling me irrational, I would take someone seeing a player once in the minors over versus looking only at the numbers. If i had only those two choices. Heres why. By watching someones mechanics and how he carries himself I can get a better idea of his future projection. Looking at numbers I can't see his mechanics, confidence and projectability. He can go 0-4 and have hit the ball hard or see that he has the confidence to overcome the adversity. You don't see that in numbers.

 

If I am going to make a judgement on a player I watch them multiple times and look at the numbers but lean more towards what I see.

 

[jenksycat]

I never said stats are meaningless. I said I wouldn't pass judgement on a players ability and project his future performance based on numbers alone.

 

Also, he said that he saw him multiple times not just once.

 

But if you want to make extreme arguement while calling me irrational, I would take someone seeing a player once in the minors over versus looking only at the numbers. If i had only those two choices. Heres why. By watching someones mechanics and how he carries himself I can get a better idea of his future projection. Looking at numbers I can't see his mechanics, confidence and projectability. He can go 0-4 and have hit the ball hard or see that he has the confidence to overcome the adversity. You don't see that in numbers.

 

If I am going to make a judgement on a player I watch them multiple times and look at the numbers but lean more towards what I see.

 

What team are you the scout for?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

WSF101 saw the same Bailey starts for the Reds that I did. His stuff was extremely underwhelming in those games.

There could be a lot of reasons for that though. I've read everything from the Reds taking his fastball away from him, to the Reds tweaking his mechanics, to the Reds changing his repertoire as a whole by eliminating his curveball and adding or subtracting who knows what else, so overall that's not important. The only things that are important are 1) the accuracy of the reports that had him sitting 93-96 late in the season, and 2) his health. If the reports of his velocity coming back are true, and he was sitting in that range comfortably as was stated, and if he passes a full physical, then the kid is worth a shot.

 

Teams generally don't give up guys with as much talent as Bailey at such a young age without serious, major injuries occurring. If Homer Bailey checks out, and his velocity is there, then this is one of those deals that you make in video games but you can't make in real life, and this is potentially one of those deals that you look back on years from now and say, "WTF were the Reds thinking?" Therefore, you should make the deal. Especially if the Sox can sign a corner OF to replace Dye without having to give up a draft pick in the process. I love Dye and he's one of my favorite players I've ever seen on any team, but that's just a no-brainer.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

What team are you the scout for?

You don't have to be a pro scout to know a little something about what you're looking at, just like you don't have to be a GM in MLB to provide an opinion on a trade or a potential trade.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'll also add a theory of mine: the main reason there is some apprehension about acquiring Bailey is because when many of us look at that deal from the Reds point of view, we say to ourselves "There's no way I do that deal unless the kid is hurt." It's hard to imagine giving up on a kid that talented for any other reason, but really, that could be the case. Some organizations do highly questionable or outrageously stupid things, like hire Dusty Baker as a manager for instance.

[Marky Mark]

Teams generally don't give up guys with as much talent as Bailey at such a young age without serious, major injuries occurring. If Homer Bailey checks out, and his velocity is there, then this is one of those deals that you make in video games but you can't make in real life, and this is potentially one of those deals that you look back on years from now and say, "WTF were the Reds thinking?" Therefore, you should make the deal. Especially if the Sox can sign a corner OF to replace Dye without having to give up a draft pick in the process. I love Dye and he's one of my favorite players I've ever seen on any team, but that's just a no-brainer.

 

 

They may not necessarily be giving up on Bailey, but instead getting the best out of a guy they don't even need. Check their rotation, it's great.

 

Harangatang ( A great pitcher coming off a bad year)

Arroyo (If they trade any pitcher it really should be him, but his 15 wins should trick the team into finding him worth keeping even though wins don't measure how good you are)

Cueto (Could have higher ceiling than Bailey)

Volquez (Amazing)

Owings (Good pitcher, good future, great bat)

 

They just lost their biggest bat in the lineup and they need someone to replace it. Dye would be perfect, and Bailey could be the key to get him here. Why hold onto Bailey? To form a six man rotation?

[chunk23]

I'll also add a theory of mine: the main reason there is some apprehension about acquiring Bailey is because when many of us look at that deal from the Reds point of view, we say to ourselves "There's no way I do that deal unless the kid is hurt." It's hard to imagine giving up on a kid that talented for any other reason, but really, that could be the case. Some organizations do highly questionable or outrageously stupid things, like hire Dusty Baker as a manager for instance.

 

His fastball has no movement on it. That's why they would give up on him. Plus as was just shown, they don't really need him.

[bighurt4life]

His fastball has no movement on it. That's why they would give up on him. Plus as was just shown, they don't really need him.

 

A straight fastball can be very effective when used in conjunction with some nasty offspeed stuff a la Francisco Rodriuez. And by all reports Bailey has a knee buckling curve and one of the best sliders around.

[whitesoxfan101]

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but at least he makes a judgement after seeing the player as opposed to some posters judging players only through numbers without seeing them in person.

 

The fun thing about this board is that people will rip you for having an opinion because you are not a scout, but they'll also rip you if you don't have an opinion on something. Best of both worlds I guess. I know I am not a scout, but it doesn't take a scout to recognize there is a big problem when a guy who has a scouting report that says "overwhelming stuff" has a fastball with zero movement that can't get out of the low 90's (and is at times in the mid to high 80's) and has very flat breaking stuff. And again, I have seen 3 of his major league and 1 of his minor league starts in person since mid 2007, and his stuff was almost identical in all of them. I know you can't judge one start, but you can judge four IMO.

Edited December 12, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[witesoxfan]

I hate to play the "Cooper-cutter" card, but I just did.

[RockRaines]

WSF101 saw the same Bailey starts for the Reds that I did. His stuff was extremely underwhelming in those games.

What game was that again, and what season? What was the outcome, and what was he working on?

 

I never said stats are meaningless. I said I wouldn't pass judgement on a players ability and project his future performance based on numbers alone.

 

Also, he said that he saw him multiple times not just once.

 

But if you want to make extreme arguement while calling me irrational, I would take someone seeing a player once in the minors over versus looking only at the numbers. If i had only those two choices. Heres why. By watching someones mechanics and how he carries himself I can get a better idea of his future projection. Looking at numbers I can't see his mechanics, confidence and projectability. He can go 0-4 and have hit the ball hard or see that he has the confidence to overcome the adversity. You don't see that in numbers.

 

If I am going to make a judgement on a player I watch them multiple times and look at the numbers but lean more towards what I see.

Well, I've seen several surgical procedures on TV, if your appendix ever burts dont go to the professionals, I have more than enough experience.

 

One fan watching one start from a box seat down the line while eating nachos and drinking has probably 1 percent of the credibility of a scout that has been watching him since High School into the minors charting each pitch in each situation. Sorry about it, nobody on this board has much expertise on Homer Bailey's talent or potential.

 

The fun thing about this board is that people will rip you for having an opinion because you are not a scout, but they'll also rip you if you don't have an opinion on something. Best of both worlds I guess. I know I am not a scout, but it doesn't take a scout to recognize there is a big problem when a guy who has a scouting report that says "overwhelming stuff" has a fastball with zero movement that can't get out of the low 90's (and is at times in the mid to high 80's) and has very flat breaking stuff. And again, I have seen 3 of his major league and 1 of his minor league starts in person since mid 2007, and his stuff was almost identical in all of them. I know you can't judge one start, but you can judge four IMO.

Did you bring your gun? Where were your seats? How many pitches did you record? Was he healthy? Did you watch his bullpen session beforehand? Do you have the records of those starts? I would like to know if you even know what velocity Bailey was throwing his fastball those games you recall so vividly.

[SoxAce]

His fastball has no movement on it. That's why they would give up on him. Plus as was just shown, they don't really need him.

 

Since when? You must have seen him pitch on one of his s***ty dayz cause from I remember (and read even though it was a year + ago) is that he has very good movement on his fastball, has basically 3 + pitches, (working on a change, which is average) and is a future #1/top of the rotation/ace/etc../etc.. Only problem with Bailey (and from what I remember has been a problem for years, even looking at his numbers in the bigs) was his command issues, cause his stuff is so good. Tends to walk alot of batters, misses spots, stuff like that.

Edited December 12, 2008 by SoxAce

[Jordan4life_2007]

Rock pretty much summed it up with his last post. I think I'm going to roll with Kenny and his crew over anybody from this board when it comes to scouting players.

[ThunderBolt]

I’ve broadcasted (called color) games, and trust me, it’s extremely difficult to make judgment calls about pitchers on the fly. Especially, pertaining to pitch type, pitch speed, and movement. Unless, you have the proper tools being a spectator is mostly just a guessing game. The best you can derive with casual interest is usually just the basic facts: he's pitching well, he looks tired, ETC.

[fathom]

I've seen Bailey on TV 4 times in his career, while my brother has seen him numerous times in AAA. I watched Bailey's MLB debut in 2007 (against Indians I believe), and then I saw his two performances against Brewers last season as well as his game against the Cardinals. Like I recently said in this thread though, we don't know how much the injuries depleted him of his stuff last season. If his stuff last season when he was in the majors is what he truly throws, then I want no part of him. He is worth the risk of Jermaine though, as he could give us the power righty we've lacked.

 

 

st 8 Games (Season Game Log) Season to Date

Date Opponent Score Dec IP H R ER HR BB K W L SV IP ERA

Aug 6 MIL L 3-6 L 5.1 8 6 6 0 3 4 0 6 0 36.1 7.93

Aug 1 @ WAS L 2-5 L 2.0 7 5 5 0 1 3 0 5 0 31.0 7.55

Jul 26 COL L 1-5 L 4.2 15 5 4 0 1 2 0 4 0 29.0 6.52

Jul 21 SDG L 4-6 - 6.1 8 3 3 1 2 2 0 3 0 24.1 6.29

Jul 13 @ MIL L 2-3 - 5.2 5 2 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 18.0 7.00

Jun 15 BOS L 0-9 L 2.1 4 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 0 12.1 8.76

Jun 10 STL L 2-7 L 3.2 8 5 5 2 3 2 0 2 0 10.0 6.30

Jun 5 @ PHI L 0-5 L 6.1 4 5 2 1 4 1 0 1 0 6.1 2.84

Total 36.1 59 36 32 8 17 18 0 6 0 0 7.93

Edited December 12, 2008 by fathom

[Jordan4life_2007]

I've seen Bailey on TV 4 times in his career, while my brother has seen him numerous times in AAA. I watched Bailey's MLB debut in 2007 (against Indians I believe), and then I saw his two performances against Brewers last season as well as his game against the Cardinals. Like I recently said in this thread though, we don't know how much the injuries depleted him of his stuff last season. If his stuff last season when he was in the majors is what he truly throws, then I want no part of him. He is worth the risk of Jermaine though, as he could give us the power righty we've lacked.

 

 

st 8 Games (Season Game Log) Season to Date

Date Opponent Score Dec IP H R ER HR BB K W L SV IP ERA

Aug 6 MIL L 3-6 L 5.1 8 6 6 0 3 4 0 6 0 36.1 7.93

Aug 1 @ WAS L 2-5 L 2.0 7 5 5 0 1 3 0 5 0 31.0 7.55

Jul 26 COL L 1-5 L 4.2 15 5 4 0 1 2 0 4 0 29.0 6.52

Jul 21 SDG L 4-6 - 6.1 8 3 3 1 2 2 0 3 0 24.1 6.29

Jul 13 @ MIL L 2-3 - 5.2 5 2 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 18.0 7.00

Jun 15 BOS L 0-9 L 2.1 4 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 0 12.1 8.76

Jun 10 STL L 2-7 L 3.2 8 5 5 2 3 2 0 2 0 10.0 6.30

Jun 5 @ PHI L 0-5 L 6.1 4 5 2 1 4 1 0 1 0 6.1 2.84

Total 36.1 59 36 32 8 17 18 0 6 0 0 7.93

 

May I ask why you posted his game logs from last year? We all know he pretty much stunk.

[caulfield12]

If the organization feels that it was injuries/confidence/coaching and not a stuff issue (like Floyd), they'll take on Bailey in a heartbeat. The potential is just too great to pass on...and Dye's stats can be reproduced without giving up talent by an Abreu, Dunn, Burrell type. Not to mention JD might get hurt finally this season.

Edited December 12, 2008 by caulfield12