Rumors: Sox/Reds Talking Dye for Bailey Swap

[ThunderBolt]

More of the same for the Reds in terms of OF talks. Still looking for a power bat, concerned wit Baldelli's health and willing to explore Hairston in LF. Taveras in CF and Hairston in LF? They'll never learn will they? http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/12...t_jocketty_1227

[beck72]

On Major League Trade Rumors, during the Live chat today, Tim Dierkes mentioned a few times that he thought Dye would be traded.

 

http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php?opti...50&replay=y

 

2:48 [Comment From Tyler]

Who do you see the Reds adding to the Outfield before the season. Also, is Alex Gonzalez ever going to be healthy again to play SS for the Reds?

2:49 They seem to be cautiously penciling Gonzalez in as the opening day SS. I can see the Dye talks being reignited.

 

2:52 [Comment From The Baseball King]

Where do you think Giambi will wind up? And do you think Dye will be traded?

2:53 Oakland or TB. I do think Dye will be dealt.

 

2:57 [Comment From Jordan Anderson]

Who do you see the White Sox trading/signing....the market out there is really good but ken williams is just a damn peckerhead!!!! hope u can answer my question thanks

2:58 Oops I didnt mean to post that, reading the whole thing.

 

2:58 Anyway you have a great GM in KW. He operates away from the media. I expect some kind of starter to be added and can def. see a Dye trade.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2008 by beck72

[chunk23]

Yeah, he seems pretty confident in that happening.

[Kyyle23]

2:57 [Comment From Jordan Anderson]

Who do you see the White Sox trading/signing....the market out there is really good but ken williams is just a damn peckerhead!!!! hope u can answer my question thanks

2:58 Oops I didnt mean to post that, reading the whole thing.

 

 

LOL, WTF?

[shakes]

Yeah, he seems pretty confident in that happening.

 

 

Well, I appreciate the site he has put together, but I put zero stock into any of his personal predictions.

[ThunderBolt]

Agreed, Tom’s an excellent resource, but in no way is he an insider. Any opinion he has is based on informed conjecture so, we here at Soxtalk are on even ground with him.

[DaTank]

Agreed, Tom’s an excellent resource, but in no way is he an insider. Any opinion he has is based on informed conjecture so, we here at Soxtalk are on even ground with him.

 

If you're referring to the guy from MLBTR, his name's Tim.

[scenario]

Not trying to stir this up again. However, I found an interesting post on a Cincy fan site from someone suggesting he is a scout who had some info to share on Bailey and a potential trade.

 

"Guys, let me clear up some Homer Bailey issues. I am not sure when Bailey began having his problems but lets first clear up when Bailey's problem: his knee. Literally. Before the 2005 season he had to have it scoped and he didn't have anymore problems with it to at least to the end of the 2006 season.

 

I scouted Homer Bailey starting in the 2006 instructional season and was sorta disappointed. Homer generally is comfortable hitting in the 93-96 range while dialing it up to 97-98 at times. But he also had a nice power curve that was fairly developed at least by his 2006 footage, especially mid-year which is why the Reds were confident to promote him to AA if I had to guess.

 

But in the 2006 instructional league he wasn't as good. His fastball was more around 92-94 which isn't surprising, Homer had worked at those speeds before rather than the more common 94-95 range in AA, but generally in the instructional league, you do have times of full speed pitching and I never saw the consistant higher velocities he demonstrated in his first 2 minor league seasons.

 

More importantly, his curveball, a power 11-5 variety was duller than it had been, especially in his AA stint. That was a sign obviously something was wrong. It continued in the 2007 and by spring he had pretty much lost his curveball.

 

Now, he did have a return stint late in the 2007 season where he was "close" to his previous AA form. But not quite. I don't know what happened after he went down to Sarasota for a pitching rehab stint, but he looked better upon returning.

 

So comes the 2007 instructional season and I expect to see the Homer Bailey which had been advertised. How wrong I was. He was now down to 91-92 and his curveball was truly gone. Nothing was left, nada. Talk about worried. That of course, no surprise, was the harbinger of a very disappointing 2008 season for Homer. Now, let me tell you what I believe happened to Homer and how I "told" it was resolved:

 

1.Homer Bailey's mechanics depend on a leg driven overhand throwing motion that is easy on the arm, but requires alot of leg movement and extension to drive the torque in his arm. Basically taking pressure off the arm and putting it on the legs. If he is not getting the proper balance in his legs, he can't get the arm torque to drive his velocity. He also can't get on top of his curveball which causes it to roll to the plate, which I believe is the bigger issue than even the loss of velocity. Homer is a 1/2 power pitcher. He doesn't rely on fancy movement or finesse. He must throw in the mid-90's and finish people off with his curveball. He is working on a slider,2 seamer and changeup, but for a guy this young, it takes awhile to develope those extras.

2.The Reds reaction was totally wrong. First they thought he was having lower back/groin area issues. Not only was that wrong, it was the improper balance that caused the "groin injury"(infamous?) in the first place. Then after his disappointing 2007 instructional season, they thought he was a basketcase and needed to tweak his mechanics to give him a "better state of mind". This just made a bad situation worse. His mechanics came completely unglued and unbalanced. He didn't know how to throw without a windup and he was completely lost for most of the season.

3.Resolution. When Walt Jocketty was made GM, one of his "to do lists" was findout what was wrong with Homer. He gave him 2 looks if I remember right that of course failed miserably(unsurprisingly). Jocketty like we all did in the scouting world, knew Homer was not getting the balance he needed. Now Walt like Krivsky thought it was lower back/groin area issues AGAIN. But Walt taking the information from the scouts, had a hunch and he got his confirmation when Bailey confirmed his knee had been bothering him badly since late April. Oh yeah, Walt also found out Homer had been have "discomfort" in his knee since 2006.

 

Guys, this type of stuff will drive a GM batty. Homer already had a "wounded duck" reputation going back to his secrecy of the 2005 knee scope that drove the Reds crazy. Now he almost ruined his career with that kind of thinking.

 

Homer then puts on a knee brace, goes into the AAA playoffs and what do you know. He looks like Homer Bailey. Mid-90's fastball that was touching occassionally at 97. Nasty 11-5 curveball that would freeze the batter at point. I wasn't at the game but my colleagues who attended were amazed. Welcome back Homer Bailey. Really sad when you think about it. Homer wasted 2 years. Bats manager Rick Sweet almost cried.

 

I got my confirmation at this years instructional. A dominating performance. He made Jay Bruce look terrible, he couldn't touch his curveball(another thread disussion, that is a worrying problem Jay has).

 

Bailey IMO is the 2008 offseason guy everybody wants. Jocketty would be crazy to give him away from a aging player like Dye. His refuting this "source" was quick and swift. Dye may end up a Red, but not for Bailey. Bailey has more value than Dye if I had to guess."

Edited January 3, 2009 by scenario

[GreatScott82]

Im guessing if this Roberts deal talks is true than the Dye for Bailey deal HAS to be alive. Because if Floyd leaves, we have a rotation of: Buerhle, Danks, Marquez, Broadway, Richard/Poreda and that my friends is horrendous!

[knightni]

This isn't X-Box.

 

KW won't trade Dye, Floyd and pitchers just to add more salary by taking on Jones, Roberts and Bailey.

[beck72]

Im guessing if this Roberts deal talks is true than the Dye for Bailey deal HAS to be alive. Because if Floyd leaves, we have a rotation of: Buerhle, Danks, Marquez, Broadway, Richard/Poreda and that my friends is horrendous!

I agree. The sox should get as many SP's with upside as they can to compete for spots. Bailey fits the bill rather nicely.

[scenario]

This isn't X-Box.

 

KW won't trade Dye, Floyd and pitchers just to add more salary by taking on Jones, Roberts and Bailey.

 

I don't see Jones being part of the picture. Even at a discounted value he's too expensive for the putrid production he's put up two consecutive years.

 

But... if we did do a Roberts deal (a big IF)... I'm only suggesting that it would probably mean that KW had another trade planned to bring back pitching.

 

And since the Bailey rumor had some legs earlier, it might be the followup deal to fill the slot vacated by Floyd. Again... this is complete speculation... but it seems to make some sense.

 

So... who would we rather have? Floyd + one year of Dye... or Bailey + one year of Roberts.

Edited January 3, 2009 by scenario

[Jimmywins1]

So... who would we rather have? Floyd + one year of Dye... or Bailey + one year of Roberts.

 

If it was Bailey and THREE years of Roberts, sure.

The guy is apparently a physical freak and takes great care of himself, if he'd stick around for 3 years, I'd take that over Dye + Gavin.

[knightni]

Trade Dye to Cin for Bailey, send Bailey to Bal for Roberts, then.

[GreatScott82]

Trade Dye to Cin for Bailey, send Bailey to Bal for Roberts, then.

The O's want an MLB experienced starter who has show flashes of success. If we aqcuired Bailey- he would be replacing Floyds spot in the rotation. If we aqcuire Roberts- it would be after he signed an extension with us (See Freddy Garcia trade of 2004). This isn't like the Garland for Cabrera swap as both of those players were on the last year of their contracts. Floyd is under contract for the next 2 seasons at $400 K/season and is arbitration eligiable until 2013. Thats 5 more seasons....

 

 

[beck72]

So... who would we rather have? Floyd + one year of Dye... or Bailey + one year of Roberts.

It should read Floyd + one year of Dye... or Bailey + 1 year of Roberts + 2 draft picks

[Dick Allen]

BP's take on Homer Bailey pre-2008:

It's been around for less than 50 innings at the major league level, but Bailey's Ebby Calvin LaLoosh impression is aready starting to wear thin. In the movie, by the time "Nuke" reached the big leagues, he'd experienced some life lessons and gained some maturity. Bailey, on the other hand, appears disinterested to coaches and indifferent to opposing players-not the attitude you want to see from someone who still has a lot to learn about the craft of pitching. It's too soon to declare him the latest Texas schoolboy bust, but 2007 was a disappointment for a prospect who looked like he had the pure stuff to take the league by storm.

 

Then came 2008. He's far from a sure thing. If he can't be in the Cincinatti Reds' rotation what makes him so desirable to fans of the White Sox?

[Whitewashed in '05]

BP's take on Homer Bailey pre-2008:

It's been around for less than 50 innings at the major league level, but Bailey's Ebby Calvin LaLoosh impression is aready starting to wear thin. In the movie, by the time "Nuke" reached the big leagues, he'd experienced some life lessons and gained some maturity. Bailey, on the other hand, appears disinterested to coaches and indifferent to opposing players-not the attitude you want to see from someone who still has a lot to learn about the craft of pitching. It's too soon to declare him the latest Texas schoolboy bust, but 2007 was a disappointment for a prospect who looked like he had the pure stuff to take the league by storm.

 

Then came 2008. He's far from a sure thing. If he can't be in the Cincinatti Reds' rotation what makes him so desirable to fans of the White Sox?

 

Don.Cooper.

[santo=dorf]

Don.Cooper.

Isn't he busy enough?

 

God, Cooper has become quite the tired cliche.

[Chisoxfn]

I still think when the dust settles Homer Bailey will be a White Sox.

[jenksycat]

Isn't he busy enough?

 

God, Cooper has become quite the tired cliche.

 

 

Pff yeah, tell me about it. People talk like he helped develop an ace and a 17 game winner or something. What a loser.

[Whitewashed in '05]

Isn't he busy enough?

 

God, Cooper has become quite the tired cliche.

 

haha are you seriously giving me s*** for suggesting the white sox would take homer bailey because they think coop can help? how many pitchers has coop helped? did i suggest signing every pitcher off the scrap heap so coop can fix them? homer bailey has talent, but has had trouble in the majors. is it that far fetched to believe he can be straightened out? i would agree with you if someone suggested coop will work a miracle for loaiza again, but with bailey?

[Jordan4life_2007]

I don't usually bump old threads outta the blue. But considering this has been the most boring spring training in years, we're still some 17 days away from opening day, and we've got threads highlighting players NCAA brackets, I don't see any harm.

 

Was it ever determined why this deal never materialized? Did we want too much? Did the Reds not want to pay Dye's entire salary? Was it just BS from the start? I really don't remember. I'd hope that it had nothing to do with us either wanting too much (Bailey+) or refusing to part with any money to cover at least a portion of Dye's '09 salary. Because if so we totally dropped the ball. Bailey was filthy in his last 9 starts last year. And all the talk about how his stuff/velocity just vanished was all that, talk. Bailey's average FB velocity last year was 94.5. It was believed that the reason it was down in '08 was because of injuries. Of course, we had some (not naming names), that chose to ignore all that and come to their own "expert" conclusions. To those people, whatever your day job is, please, don't EVER quit it. I know it's worthless to sulk about it now. Especially when you consider that Jermaine Dye is currently rotting somewhere in baseball's abyss. But I can't help but imagine a Peavy/Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Bailey starting 5.

Edited March 19, 2010 by Jordan4life

[Pants Rowland]

I don't usually bump old threads outta the blue. But considering this has been the most boring spring training in years, we're still some 17 days away from opening day, and we've got threads highlighting players NCAA brackets, I don't see any harm.

 

Was it ever determined why this deal never materialized? Did we want too much? Did the Reds not want to pay Dye's entire salary? Was it just BS from the start? I really don't remember. I'd hope that it had nothing to do with us either wanting too much (Bailey+) or refusing to part with any money to cover at least a portion of Dye's '09 salary. Because if so we totally dropped the ball. Bailey was filthy in his last 9 starts last year. And all the talk about how his stuff/velocity just vanished was all that, talk. Bailey's average FB velocity last year was 94.5. It was believed that the reason it was down in '08 was because of injuries. Of course, we had some (not naming names), that chose to ignore all that and come to their own "expert" conclusions. To those people, whatever your day job is, please, don't EVER quit it. I know it's worthless to sulk about it now. Especially when you consider that Jermaine Dye is currently rotting somewhere in baseball's abyss. But I can't help but imagine a Peavy/Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Bailey starting 5.

 

If Bailey did join the Sox, I doubt the Peavy trade happens. However, with that said, the Sox may have taken some of their trading chips from the Peavy trade (and anything else) and had some more flexibility to pick up another bat. So many variable change if that deal happened, though. If I recall correctly, however, I think the holdup in the trade had something to do with Abreu, didn't it? I am probably mistaken, but I seem to recall the Sox needed to come to terms with a FA outfielder first before dealing Dye.

[witesoxfan]

1) I don't think it is OK to assume that the Sox still don't trade for Peavy. We don't know what Bailey does in the White Sox system, and pre-determined destiny is not something you can use. He may completely flop; no one knows.

2) The Sox, as a general rule, never take on money in deals. I don't know why, but they don't. It would have made sense for them to do so, but they just didn't. Had they done so, they could have essentially paid for $4 mill of Dye's salary, brought in Abreu for $8, and the team looks great on paper. It wasn't so, so there's not much we can fret about.

3) I don't know that the Reds ever really wanted to do it to begin with. They wanted right handed power, and while Jermaine Dye is better than Ramon Hernandez and Jonny Gomes, they weren't willing to pay a very talented and (once) highly touted arm from their system for a 1 year deal. So, they considered the opportunity cost of getting Dye as opposed to getting Hernandez/Gomes, and considering the money they saved and the prospect(s) they kept, I'd say they came out light years ahead.