Winter Meetings Chit-Chat

[bigruss]

Let's take a look at what we currently have compared to what we had last season...

 

C 08 Pierzynski - C 09 Pierzynski = WASH

1B 08 Konerko - 1B 09 Konerko = WASH, though hopefully he has a much better 09

2B 08 Ramirez - 2B 09 Getz/Lil/Nix/Betemit = 08

SS 08 Cabrera - SS 09 Ramirez = 09

3B 08 Crede/Uribe - 3B 09 Fields/Betemit = ?, while he'll probably have better offensive output, we're taking a big dip on D.

LF 08 Quentin - LF 09 Quentin = WASH

CF 08 Swish/JR - CF 09 Owens/Lil/Anderson = Wash, pretty much all suck

RF 08 Dye - RF 09 Dye = WASH

 

So what I'm seeing is a probably rebound from PK as he finished the season pretty strong, and probably regression from CQ and JD. Fields will outproduce the Crede/Uribe duo, but his defense isn't even close, though Crede sucked last year. We're losing a bit of power in CF, but gaining better defense. 2B and CF are probably the biggest toss ups offensively.

 

As far as SP goes, we've lost the Vazquez and will go most of the season (probably) without Contreras, so substitute in 2 of Richard/Poreda/Marquez/Egbert/Broadway. There is no doubt we're going to feel more hurt in the rotation than we do with the offense. I have some faith in Richard though. He pitched very well in the playoffs and had some promising starts. Endurance will surely be an issue with the 4/5 spots, which leads me to believe Carrasco will be used a lot in the long relief role and the 3rd place finisher of the competition might get a spot as a long man in the bullpen also. The bullpen is essentially the same right now.

 

The way I see it, if we go into 2009 with this team, it's going to be a long, rough season. Offensively, we can probably live with 2 of 2B/3B/CF being internal options, but to have all 3 as question marks going into the season isn't a great idea (barring any breakout surprises). As far as the pitching staff goes, again, barring any surprises (and expecting slight regression from Danks/Floyd), we won't be able to succeed with only 3 "sure things" in the rotation, but in any sport, nothing is a sure thing.

 

If I'm KW, my main targets right now are a lead off man who can play one of SS/2B/CF and a SP (#4 guy at worst) who can eat a lot of innings. I'd be content with the team if those 2 things were added right now. Thats why, if I'm KW, I sign Furcal and do my damndest to find a SP in FA (Johnson, Lowe, Wolf, Garland, Penny, Perez) or via the trade market. The only way I trade Dye is if I'm going to be adding 2 reasonably big salaries to the payroll, in which case 2 of Abreu/Dunn/Lowe/Furcal/Sheets/Rivera/Hudson.

Agreed at so many levels. Dye should not be traded unless we get a stud CF/leadoff guy or a #3/4 pitcher now. THen you have to sign Dunn, or Abreu, but Dunn replaces Thome after next year while giving an extra lefty batter threat now. Therefore we dont lose a bunch of power and RBI production, while we add a leadoff guy or a starter, sounds good to me. Bonus: we get younger.

[dmbjeff]

Let's take a look at what we currently have compared to what we had last season...

 

C 08 Pierzynski - C 09 Pierzynski = WASH

1B 08 Konerko - 1B 09 Konerko = WASH, though hopefully he has a much better 09

2B 08 Ramirez - 2B 09 Getz/Lil/Nix/Betemit = 08

SS 08 Cabrera - SS 09 Ramirez = 09

3B 08 Crede/Uribe - 3B 09 Fields/Betemit = ?, while he'll probably have better offensive output, we're taking a big dip on D.

LF 08 Quentin - LF 09 Quentin = WASH

CF 08 Swish/JR - CF 09 Owens/Lil/Anderson = Wash, pretty much all suck

RF 08 Dye - RF 09 Dye = WASH

 

So what I'm seeing is a probably rebound from PK as he finished the season pretty strong, and probably regression from CQ and JD. Fields will outproduce the Crede/Uribe duo, but his defense isn't even close, though Crede sucked last year. We're losing a bit of power in CF, but gaining better defense. 2B and CF are probably the biggest toss ups offensively.

 

As far as SP goes, we've lost the Vazquez and will go most of the season (probably) without Contreras, so substitute in 2 of Richard/Poreda/Marquez/Egbert/Broadway. There is no doubt we're going to feel more hurt in the rotation than we do with the offense. I have some faith in Richard though. He pitched very well in the playoffs and had some promising starts. Endurance will surely be an issue with the 4/5 spots, which leads me to believe Carrasco will be used a lot in the long relief role and the 3rd place finisher of the competition might get a spot as a long man in the bullpen also. The bullpen is essentially the same right now.

 

The way I see it, if we go into 2009 with this team, it's going to be a long, rough season. Offensively, we can probably live with 2 of 2B/3B/CF being internal options, but to have all 3 as question marks going into the season isn't a great idea (barring any breakout surprises). As far as the pitching staff goes, again, barring any surprises (and expecting slight regression from Danks/Floyd), we won't be able to succeed with only 3 "sure things" in the rotation, but in any sport, nothing is a sure thing.

 

If I'm KW, my main targets right now are a lead off man who can play one of SS/2B/CF and a SP (#4 guy at worst) who can eat a lot of innings. I'd be content with the team if those 2 things were added right now. Thats why, if I'm KW, I sign Furcal and do my damndest to find a SP in FA (Johnson, Lowe, Wolf, Garland, Penny, Perez) or via the trade market. The only way I trade Dye is if I'm going to be adding 2 reasonably big salaries to the payroll, in which case 2 of Abreu/Dunn/Lowe/Furcal/Sheets/Rivera/Hudson.

 

all i see is 3 positions where there are huge question marks and last time we had a season like that was in 2007. it wasnt pretty. not to mention if they trade dye, thats 4 positions where you dont have legit starters. not to mention we only have 3 capable SP, which is really the biggest problem. we are gonna have another 2007 season unless we sign 2 big free agents as you suggest or if this youth movement (getz,dayan,owens,fields,maybe beckham etc) is ready to actually contribute to at least league avg's at their positions.

[dmbjeff]

the biggest thing is this pitching youth movement. it is extremely rare for minor league talents to just step in and put up good era's, good whip's and pitch the required 200+innings you need as a SP. look at danks and floyd they struggled their first go arounds as a SP. at the moment we are asking 2 rooks to do this for us if we don't get a proven SP or 2 in there via trade or FA. i am really not looking forward to 2009. its gonna be a long year.

[caulfield12]

The Twins were able to get away with it with Blackburn and Perkins at their 4/5 with the likes of Livan Michelin Man Hernandez getting the majority of starts before Liriano was finally brought back up (too late).

 

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Richard/Marquez are/were similarly regarded, but you can certainly say that most scouts believe Poreda will have a bigger impact than G. Perkins (with the continued development of his secondary pitches, one caveat).

[SoxFan1]

The Twins were able to get away with it with Blackburn and Perkins at their 4/5 with the likes of Livan Michelin Man Hernandez getting the majority of starts before Liriano was finally brought back up (too late).

 

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Richard/Marquez are/were similarly regarded, but you can certainly say that most scouts believe Poreda will have a bigger impact than G. Perkins (with the continued development of his secondary pitches, one caveat).

Baseball America had Nick Blackburn as the Twins #1 prospect after 2007 and had a 2.11 ERA in AAA in 2007 before being called up. Perkins was a 1st round pick in 2004 and was up and down for years throughout the Twins organization. He was also called up after Scott Baker went down, but stuck.

 

Poreda was also a 1st round pick, 25th overall and is currently our 2nd rated prospect, and 56 overall according to mlb.com, which has a terrible list. Richard is currently listed as our #3 prospect by Baseball America, but was our 8th round pick in 2005. You could probably argue that Poreda/Richard are a better duo, based of minor league success, but if both of them are in our rotation, it leaves us with 4 lefties and Gavin. Marquez, on the other hand, was a supplemental round pick, and from what I see, was never a top 10 prospect for the Yanks. He had good success in AA in 2008 w/ a 2.93 ERA in 3 starts, giving up 5 runs and striking out 12 in 15.1 innings, but had a 4.96 ERA in AAA in 14 starts with some bad peripherals.

 

And just for no reason, the Twins 09 rotation looks like...

 

Scott Baker, 26

Francisco Liriano, 24

Kevin Slowey, 24

Nick Blackburn, 26

Glen Perkins, 26

 

That's a helluva nice, young rotation they have in place, not to mention they have Bonser just sitting there. How scary is it that they dealt Garza away too...

 

We're currently looking at this for 09...

 

Mark Buehrle, 30

John Danks, 23

Gavin Floyd, 26

Clayton Richard, 25

Jeff Marquez, 24/Aaron Poreda, 22/Lance Broadway, 25

[witesoxfan]

Swisher singles. Cabrera grounds out into a fielders choice. Quentin singles sharply and the runner is held at 3rd. Thome walks the bases loaded. Konerko GIDP. No runs, two hits, a walk, and corpse ball.

 

vs.

 

Pods singles. Steals second. Iguchi grounds out to the right advances runner. Everett flies out with sac fly. Konerko K's. One run, one hit.

 

The Sox need to be able to manufacture runs on 40 degree April and September nights while the boppers are seeking the sage advice from Walker and rubbing bengay on their aging joints. They also need to bash the hell out of the ball at the Cell in July. There needs to be a mix. Besides, only half of the Sox games are played at the Cell.

 

Paul Konerko is more likely to hit a home run than he is to ground into a double play in that spot. Meanwhile, Carl Everett is more likely to ground into a double play than he is hitting a sacrifice fly, though not in the one extreme scenario you highlighted.

 

2008 - Konerko 22 HR, 17 GIDP

2005 - Everett 10 SF, 11 GIDP

 

You are using a case of extremes in this situation, and it's very likely that the Sox would have gotten atleast 1 and perhaps 2 or 3 in scenario 1. And besides all of that, you are looking at the probability of an event happening in a single scenario, when baseball is and always will be a game of averages.

[caulfield12]

I think Marquez was the #8 prospect for the Yankees, maybe as recently as coming into 2008 or 2007.

 

The Royals, with Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Hochevar/Torres

 

and the Indians

 

Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Lewis, Sowers/Laffey/Jackson

 

would appear to also at least have the potential to be very strong rotations, IF IF IF they pitch up to their potential.

 

From looking at it objectively, the Royals might have the best rotation in our division if Hochevar and Torres pitch as well as expected (unless Liriano gains his 2006 form and not the 2008 version after surgery).

[SoxFan1]

I think Marquez was the #8 prospect for the Yankees, maybe as recently as coming into 2008 or 2007.

 

The Royals, with Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Hochevar/Torres

 

and the Indians

 

Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Lewis, Sowers/Laffey/Jackson

 

would appear to also at least have the potential to be very strong rotations, IF IF IF they pitch up to their potential.

 

From looking at it objectively, the Royals might have the best rotation in our division if Hochevar and Torres pitch as well as expected (unless Liriano gains his 2006 form and not the 2008 version after surgery).

You're right, he was #9 going into 2006. 06 Yankees Top 10, Baseball America

[caulfield12]

Paul Konerko is more likely to hit a home run than he is to ground into a double play in that spot. Meanwhile, Carl Everett is more likely to ground into a double play than he is hitting a sacrifice fly, though not in the one extreme scenario you highlighted.

 

2008 - Konerko 22 HR, 17 GIDP

2005 - Everett 10 SF, 11 GIDP

 

You are using a case of extremes in this situation, and it's very likely that the Sox would have gotten atleast 1 and perhaps 2 or 3 in scenario 1. And besides all of that, you are looking at the probability of an event happening in a single scenario, when baseball is and always will be a game of averages.

 

 

Can you isolate that statistic for occasions when Konerko came up to bat with runners on 1st or runners on 1st and 2nd (or bases loaded)...whether he was more likely to GIDP, single or hit a homer? Weren't many of his HR's solo shots?

 

Also, with Konerko, last year was something of a statistical anomaly because of his injuries which wiped out the first half of the season. The player we saw for the last 6 weeks or so was the "healthy/normal" Konerko IMO.

Edited December 10, 2008 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

I think Marquez was the #8 prospect for the Yankees, maybe as recently as coming into 2008 or 2007.

 

The Royals, with Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Hochevar/Torres

 

and the Indians

 

Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Lewis, Sowers/Laffey/Jackson

 

would appear to also at least have the potential to be very strong rotations, IF IF IF they pitch up to their potential.

 

From looking at it objectively, the Royals might have the best rotation in our division if Hochevar and Torres pitch as well as expected (unless Liriano gains his 2006 form and not the 2008 version after surgery).

 

If every team has their pitchers pitch up to their potential, there's no rotation I'd take in the AL over Minnesota's. FWIW, and I think it's worth a lot, Liriano had a 2.76 ERA in 11 starts after coming up mid-season.

[caulfield12]

Yes, but look at who most of those starts were against...

 

He somehow ended up missing almost all of the really good teams in the AL. I think his most impressive win was beating up the Indians when they were in one of their patented 2nd half hot streaks to look respectable. However, in the biggest start of his career, he was roughed up by the Royals, which was one of the most important losses of the season in tipping the division back in our direction.

 

I'm yet to be convinced he's even close to the same pitcher. I think half his results were intimidation/name factor from 2006 and the fact that he was facing almost all "inferior" AL teams and not pitching against any contending teams....maybe once or twice in those 11 starts.

 

He beat the Rays and a hot Indians team on the road.

 

In his other nine starts, KC three times (including the crucial loss the final weekend), Detroit (dead team walking, was a good offense earlier before they phoned it in), Oakland twice and Seattle twice (and a second Indians' start). Those were arguably the three of the worst offenses (along with TOR) in the AL for most of last season.

Edited December 10, 2008 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Can you isolate that statistic for occasions when Konerko came up to bat with runners on 1st or runners on 1st and 2nd (or bases loaded)...whether he was more likely to GIDP, single or hit a homer? Weren't many of his HR's solo shots?

 

Also, with Konerko, last year was something of a statistical anomaly because of his injuries which wiped out the first half of the season. The player we saw for the last 6 weeks or so was the "healthy/normal" Konerko IMO.

 

He was much worse with a runner on first base, so my initial post is a bit inaccurate as, for whatever reason, I didn't account for solo homers. And yes, 16 of his 22 homers were solo. That's a bit odd only because it doesn't play into what he generally has done throughout his career; 73% of his homers were solo, whereas it's closer to 60% for his career, including last year.

 

However, throughout the year he was also more likely to hit for an extra base hit with men on base (18 XBH to 17 GIDP...yes, I'm cherry picking...anybody else can do it too). Anybody can do what they want, because, as you mentioned, last year was an anomaly for Konerko, and I'd expect something more along the lines of his 2007 season at the very least and quite possibly something to his '04 or '05 seasons, though probably without the 40 homers.

[SoxFan1]

Yes, but look at who most of those starts were against...

 

He somehow ended up missing almost all of the really good teams in the AL. I think his most impressive win was beating up the Indians when they were in one of their patented 2nd half hot streaks to look respectable. However, in the biggest start of his career, he was roughed up by the Royals, which was one of the most important losses of the season in tipping the division back in our direction.

 

I'm yet to be convinced he's even close to the same pitcher. I think half his results were intimidation/name factor from 2006 and the fact that he was facing almost all "inferior" AL teams and not pitching against any contending teams....maybe once or twice in those 11 starts.

This is true. He faced CLE x2, KC x3, SEA x2, OAK x2, DET once and TB once. Out of his 11 2nd half starts, he struck out more than 5 only 4 times, and got raped once by KC and once by CLE when it mattered most. His best start was 7 innings vs TB where he gave up 1 run on 5 hits and struck out 7 but walked 4.

[witesoxfan]

Yes, but look at who most of those starts were against...

 

He somehow ended up missing almost all of the really good teams in the AL. I think his most impressive win was beating up the Indians when they were in one of their patented 2nd half hot streaks to look respectable. However, in the biggest start of his career, he was roughed up by the Royals, which was one of the most important losses of the season in tipping the division back in our direction.

 

I'm yet to be convinced he's even close to the same pitcher. I think half his results were intimidation/name factor from 2006 and the fact that he was facing almost all "inferior" AL teams and not pitching against any contending teams....maybe once or twice in those 11 starts.

 

He beat the Rays and a hot Indians team on the road.

 

In his other nine starts, KC three times (including the crucial loss the final weekend), Detroit (dead team walking, was a good offense earlier before they phoned it in), Oakland twice and Seattle twice (and a second Indians' start). Those were arguably the three of the worst offenses (along with TOR) in the AL for most of last season.

 

and they still have 4 other starters too. I'm not as high on Liriano as most, but he was dominant when he came up last year and they have a loaded rotation. As of this second, and I know a lot is going to change, the Twins are probably the favorites to win the division.

[caulfield12]

This is true. He faced CLE x2, KC x3, SEA x2, OAK x2, DET once and TB once. Out of his 11 2nd half starts, he struck out more than 5 only 4 times, and got raped once by KC and once by CLE when it mattered most. His best start was 7 innings vs TB where he gave up 1 run on 5 hits and struck out 7 but walked 4.

 

 

I don't think the win against TB was when they were in the midst of their terrible slump...was it?

 

[caulfield12]

and they still have 4 other starters too. I'm not as high on Liriano as most, but he was dominant when he came up last year and they have a loaded rotation. As of this second, and I know a lot is going to change, the Twins are probably the favorites to win the division.

 

 

I think you have to consider Perkins and Blackburn as question marks, and Slowey a combination of Maddux and Sonnanstine. Can he continue to pitch as well as he did with his stuff? We'll see.

 

They certainly look stronger than the White Sox as of this instant. Then you consider Humber, Mulvey (from Mets) and I think one other AA/AAA starter who's drawing a lot of interesting at the Winter Meetings (think his names ends in a vowel)

[SoxFan1]

I don't think the win against TB was when they were in the midst of their terrible slump...was it?

No, it was shortly after. On Aug 31, the Rays had a 5.5 game lead and on Sept 15, they were tied with BOS. The Liriano game was Sept 21.

[EvilJester99]

Heard this morning on the Score... CC is set to sign with the Yanks for 6 yrs/140 million... seems they are recession proof.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

the biggest thing is this pitching youth movement. it is extremely rare for minor league talents to just step in and put up good era's, good whip's and pitch the required 200+innings you need as a SP. look at danks and floyd they struggled their first go arounds as a SP. at the moment we are asking 2 rooks to do this for us if we don't get a proven SP or 2 in there via trade or FA. i am really not looking forward to 2009. its gonna be a long year.

I agree with all of this, except I would be more than willing to deal with two young guys' growing pains in 2009 so long as we had better talent to pencil in than Marquez and CR/AP.

[harfman77]

You're right, he was #9 going into 2006. 06 Yankees Top 10, Baseball America

And #7 in 2008 2008 Yankees Top 10 from BA

Edited December 10, 2008 by IowaSoxFan

[Dick Allen]

Sox general manager Ken Williams, sticking to his stealth plan, ducked a question about free agents he might meet with this week. ''If I answered that question, it would go against my tactics of trying to mislead you guys as much as I can,'' he said. ''So I just have to continue on with my pattern of dodging and weaving. We generally have more success when we are operating out of sight.''

[tonyho7476]

Sox general manager Ken Williams, sticking to his stealth plan, ducked a question about free agents he might meet with this week. ''If I answered that question, it would go against my tactics of trying to mislead you guys as much as I can,'' he said. ''So I just have to continue on with my pattern of dodging and weaving. We generally have more success when we are operating out of sight.''

 

Hopefully he dodges and weaves us a proven starting pitcher and lead off hitting centerfielder. I won't hold my breath.

[maggsmaggs]

Hopefully he dodges and weaves us a proven starting pitcher and lead off hitting centerfielder. I won't hold my breath.

 

I agree. My main reason thinking is that our name has been linked to no one. It is incredibly hard these days, if not impossible, to keep out of the media who is interested in who. Let's hope KW is just that good, but either the agent or someone in the Sox organization usually lets the cat out of the bag and says we are going after someone. We better make some moves or else there is no way we win the division. The twins by standing pat get better because of the their youngsters in the rotation maturing, the Indians are making some moves, the Royals are getting competitive and the Tigers still have plenty of all-stars. This is our division with three or four moves, with one or two big ones, but as in, we are going to just suffer through another one of those years where we are competitive until the end, may win the division, may not, but it won't matter because we can't compete with the other teams outside the Central,.

Edited December 10, 2008 by maggsmaggs

[daa84]

i can't believe how quiet our club has been during these meetings...the only rumor with any substance was the dye for bailey one, and that was shot down really quickly....even with free agents, Rock has said KW has been talking to some, but who? Bruce levine said the sox might go after some mid level free agents (in the area of 5 or 6 mil), but who is out there at that price that we would want? We'll see, but I was expecting KW to make some more moves cuz right now our team has some enormous holes (2b CF 3b....im fine going young at one or two spots, but not all three, and two holes in the rotation... which im fine having richard marquez or poreda fill one, but not two)

[EvilJester99]

KW was on the Score update saying he believes his team currently can win the division as the team stands... now of course what else is he going to say but I sure hope he doesn't really believe that.