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Sox have inside track on Abreu


Hatchetman

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:18 AM)
Abreu would be a great asset offensively, though he has seemingly regressed the last couple of years.

His production last year was nearly identical to where it was in 2002-2003. People seem to want 30+ homers out of him, which was never really his game.

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QUOTE (striker62704 @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 09:30 AM)
I'm not a fan of Owens leading off. I'm fine with him in CF batting 9th but I'd prefer Getz over Owens leading off. Getz, Abreu then Quentin could give you three straight guys with OBP over .370. Owens has speed but doesn't have the OBP capabilities Getz has. I think this one reason we were in the top 5 in HRs and bottom 5 in runs scored (or something like that) because with Swisher/Cabrera leading off and Wise/Pierzynski batting second, we had terrible OBP out of our first two spots in the lineup.

 

I realize you don't write the lineup I'm just commenting for arguments sake.

I'm still not exactly sure what to say about Owens in the OBP term, because his walk numbers are actually reasonably good for a generic leadoff man in the minors and in his late majors stint in 07. Problem is, he's been bloody inconsistent with the batting average, which is something that shouldn't happen to a guy who's a slap hitter as much as it does for him, since ideally even if he's slumping he should still be beating out hits.

 

Typically he's been a 1 walk/10 or so plate appearances guy at most of his stops, except it takes him a bit of time to get to that point his first year at a new level. With a reasonable, .280 or so batting average, that winds up with an OBP for him of .340-.350, which is in the range I'd be happy with for him given his speed. (If he's healthy enough to be a base stealing threat, that is)

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I'd much rather sign Dunn, who is younger and better, but I won't throw a fit if we sign Abreu instead. A high OBP near the top of the order was something this team greatly missed last year. Since he's reportedly good friends with Ozzie, I wouldn't be surprised if he's willing to sign with us at a slight discount.

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QUOTE (Sox It To Em @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 09:38 AM)
I'd much rather sign Dunn, who is younger and better, but I won't throw a fit if we sign Abreu instead. A high OBP near the top of the order was something this team greatly missed last year. Since he's reportedly good friends with Ozzie, I wouldn't be surprised if he's willing to sign with us at a slight discount.

That's another thing worth keeping in mind...if we were to trade Dye first...and then somehow BAb slips thorugh our fingers, we still have another option or two at similar dollars, perhaps with an added year or two.

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QUOTE (Sox It To Em @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:38 AM)
I'd much rather sign Dunn, who is younger and better, but I won't throw a fit if we sign Abreu instead. A high OBP near the top of the order was something this team greatly missed last year. Since he's reportedly good friends with Ozzie, I wouldn't be surprised if he's willing to sign with us at a slight discount.

I personally think Dunn would be a horrible fit to put in a lineup with Thome and Konerko. He brings nothing new to the table, whereas Abreu can still run and hit for a much much higher average.

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QUOTE (Sox It To Em @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:38 AM)
I'd much rather sign Dunn, who is younger and better, but I won't throw a fit if we sign Abreu instead. A high OBP near the top of the order was something this team greatly missed last year. Since he's reportedly good friends with Ozzie, I wouldn't be surprised if he's willing to sign with us at a slight discount.

 

Dunn will probably (I think? who knows with this market) cost more, and the comparison I'm about to make isn't totally fair, but here goes. Dunn is the exact kind of guy that Kenny is tired of in that he hits for a ton of power, but is a horrible fielder, can't run, and hits for a low batting average. Now, he hits for a high slugging and walks a ton, so he's a better version of that kind of player than we have had here outside of Thome (he actually is pretty similar to Thome outside of the low batting average), but he's still the kind of guy KW seems tired of dealing with. Abreu, on the other hand, seems like a perfect fit for the kind of guy KW wants right now.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:39 AM)
I personally think Dunn would be a horrible fit to put in a lineup with Thome and Konerko. He brings nothing new to the table, whereas Abreu can still run and hit for a much much higher average.

He is a bad fit. Our team wants to focus on BA and OBP. Dunn satisfies ONE of those aspects.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 09:39 AM)
I personally think Dunn would be a horrible fit to put in a lineup with Thome and Konerko. He brings nothing new to the table, whereas Abreu can still run and hit for a much much higher average.

I agree, and out of the 2 I'd take Abreu. But considering Thome probably walks after 09, adding in Dunn keeps you having the gigantic lefty power/OBP machine in the lineup after TCQ, which is a very useful thing for a number of reasons.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:39 AM)
I personally think Dunn would be a horrible fit to put in a lineup with Thome and Konerko. He brings nothing new to the table, whereas Abreu can still run and hit for a much much higher average.

 

True, but Abreu is horrid defensively and is about to enter his decline years. Dunn isn't much better defensively, but can easily replace Thome's production at DH in 2010. Dunn walks 120 times a year and consistently bangs out 40 home runs. To me, Dunn's walks are far more valuable than Abreu's speed. I agree we need some more high average hitters, but we also need to replace the power of Dye, Konerko, and Thome as they decline and leave.

 

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 09:27 AM)
Thats a good point as well. We already know that Danks is slated for the MLB level in 2-3 years and can play CF, but most likely at one point will end up in the corner. By that time Q will have been a mainstay in RF.

Danks and Shelby might very well be those guys.

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QUOTE (Sox It To Em @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 11:38 AM)
I'd much rather sign Dunn, who is younger and better, but I won't throw a fit if we sign Abreu instead. A high OBP near the top of the order was something this team greatly missed last year. Since he's reportedly good friends with Ozzie, I wouldn't be surprised if he's willing to sign with us at a slight discount.

I'm not sure how much of a discount he will offer if any. I'm sure it would be worth something to play for a team knowing you will have fun. Ozzie might have a "vague perception" of what it will cost to get Abreu and an "inkling" about where Abreu wants to play. I'm sure that in a non tampering sort of way, Ozzie has gotten to know Abreu well over the years and understands Abreu. I think Ozzie may have had a similar "vague perception" about what it would take to re-sign Freddie before the Sox acquired him. I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

 

If Taveras gets non-tendered, unless his legs are falling off, I think the Sox will add him to the mix and see what happens. Bailey, Abreu, and Tavares, and KW can call it an offseason unless some free agent pitching falls in his lap cheaply. I'd still prefer Fucal over Tavares and move Alexei to CF or 2nd.

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On a sidenote, I believe the Sox having an inside track has everything to do with Ozzie's relationship with Abreu and doesn't necessarily have to do with the Sox making any significant overtures at this point. I don't think Kenny will have told Abreu his plans this early cause it could leak out and Kenny doesn't want to get burned like he did last year.

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