Kenny's Big Board revisited - Holiday Edition!

[ILMOU]

What's Kenny's Big Board looking like right about now, with the new prospects in the pipeline?

 

My belief is that Kenny's hunkering down for the recession, with predictable and controllable payroll season to season, that relies on a healthy return from our prospects. I'm assuming a Dye trade, an Abreu signing, a mid-seson Fields trade, and a few other happenings, and I'll propose the following scenario:

 

The lineup at the end of the season '09/playoff roster:

 

Beckham 2B

Abreu LF

Q RF

Thome DH

Konerko 1B

Axelei SS

AJ C

Viciedo 3B

Taveras CF

 

Rotation:

Danks

Floyd

Buehrle

Bailey/Contreras

 

 

Pen:

Jenks

Thornton

Linebrink

Poreda

Dotel

Richard

Bailey or Contreras

 

Most likely to replace one of the above: Link

 

Bench:

? Backup catcher

Getz

Lillibridge OR Betemit

Wise

Anderson OR Owens

 

This might kick ass. Payroll looks acceptable in '10 with Thome and Contreras coming off the books. Konerko and AJP coming off before '11. Those year's projections to follow.

[ThunderBolt]

IF we're out of contention by the deadline Konerko and Dye will be gone. That's all i'll speculate about at this point

 

[witesoxfan]

IF we're out of contention by the deadline Konerko and Dye will be gone. That's all i'll speculate about at this point

 

it will be hard to trade Konerko and his NTC. That's all.

[ThunderBolt]

it will be hard to trade Konerko and his NTC. That's all.

Think they'll manage if they're really out of it.

[witesoxfan]

also, at this point, I'll be surprised if Dye is traded to the Reds. There was definitely something to that, but whatever it was fell apart. I'm sure if the Sox wanted to trade him for Harang they could, but that doesn't do anything for the Sox financial situation whatsoever as Dye and Harang have essentially the same exact contract. The Reds have traded for Ramon Hernandez and I see them taking a shot on a guy like Juan Rivera, and I imagine they feel they get more value out of that then by trading a pitcher with big potential for a guy like Jermaine Dye.

 

I wouldn't rule out a deal of Dye simply because I think KW wants Abreu in the lineup rather than Dye just because of the contrast in styles, but he's not going to merely give Dye away as Dye is still a damn good player. The Sox almost certainly aren't getting enough value for Dye by getting solely Bailey/good pitching prospect in return for him, but it accomplishes the Sox goal of getting a starting pitcher while freeing up the money and room to bring in Abreu. If such a deal is struck, I could also see the Sox going a bit over budget and bringing in Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon too on a short deal merely because the possibility of a rotation including 2 of Marquez/Poreda/Richard/pitching prospect is scary as hell and likely doesn't give the Sox the best chance to win. Regardless of whether Dye is dealt or not, I see a veteran starting pitcher being brought in on a short-term deal like that.

 

Further, I see one of Owens and Taveras - preferably Taveras, simply because he's a far better defender and nothing more - leading off for the Sox.

 

So, now that the picture is painted a bit clearer, I see 2 more moves being made for sure with a Dye deal triggering another move to bring in Abreu.

 

Taveras/Owens - CF

Abreu/Ramirez - RF/SS

Quentin - LF

Thome - DH

Konerko/Dye - 1B/RF

AJP/Konerko - C/1B

Ramirez/AJP - SS/C

Fields+Betemit - 3B

Getz - 2B

 

Buehrle

Floyd

Danks

vet SP

Marquez/Richard/Poreda/prospect brought in for Dye if done

 

the bullpen remains the same with Richard or Poreda - likely Richard - taking Boone Logan's spot, though Jimenez can't be ruled out either (which is scary)

 

the bench consists of Stewart/Miller, Lillibridge, Betemit, and Anderson. Though I really don't ever see Anderson getting another shot to claim a starting spot on this team barring injuries, I think Ozzie likes him as a tool late in games.

[Baines3]

Konerko is going any where and neither is Dye.

[ILMOU]

Further, I see one of Owens and Taveras - preferably Taveras, simply because he's a far better defender and nothing more - leading off for the Sox.

 

So, now that the picture is painted a bit clearer, I see 2 more moves being made for sure with a Dye deal triggering another move to bring in Abreu.

 

Taveras/Owens - CF

Abreu/Ramirez - RF/SS

Quentin - LF

Thome - DH

Konerko/Dye - 1B/RF

AJP/Konerko - C/1B

Ramirez/AJP - SS/C

Fields+Betemit - 3B

Getz - 2B

 

Buehrle

Floyd

Danks

vet SP

Marquez/Richard/Poreda/prospect brought in for Dye if done

 

the bullpen remains the same with Richard or Poreda - likely Richard - taking Boone Logan's spot, though Jimenez can't be ruled out either (which is scary)

 

the bench consists of Stewart/Miller, Lillibridge, Betemit, and Anderson. Though I really don't ever see Anderson getting another shot to claim a starting spot on this team barring injuries, I think Ozzie likes him as a tool late in games.

 

I guess you don't see any contribution from Jose? I have a feeling he just might contribute at the end of the season.

 

The veteran starting pitcher acquisition as a #4 is a likely move indeed. The budget for this move might negate an Abreu signing, depending.

[witesoxfan]

I guess you don't see any contribution from Jose? I have a feeling he just might contribute at the end of the season.

 

The veteran starting pitcher acquisition as a #4 is a likely move indeed. The budget for this move might negate an Abreu signing, depending.

 

I'm not counting on anything from Contreras this season. Older players usually don't recover quickly, and his injury was pretty brutal. If anything, I see him as a Carrasco type from about the trade deadline on, and that might even be stretching it.

[GreatScott82]

KW has said about 100 times thats Getz and Fields will be starting the season at 3b and 2b unless a guy like Viciedo and Beckham/Nix beat them in ST. Our infield is set. THe OF is KWs next area of focus. As of right now, there is no 'sure' CF AND with all the Dye trade rumors swirling around, I can see Quentin shifting to RF. That leaves LF and CF open. Does KW give Brian Anderson one last shot? Does he let Owens and Wise battle for a spot to become our leadoff hitter? Im not so sure about any of those. I could see KW go after a cheap bargain in Willy Tavarez. He could play LF. Meanwhile, Anderson, Wise and Owens can battle it in ST for CF.

 

If the Sox do trade Dye (which i think they absolutley should), that should give them pleanty of space to sign Tavarez, Blanco AND a Daniel Cabrera type pitcher.

 

Starting Lineup:

Getz 2B

Ramirez SS

Quentin RF

Thome DH

Konerko 1B

Pierzynski C

Fields 3B

Anderson CF

Tavarez LF

 

Rotation: Buerhle, Floyd, Danks, Cabrera, Poreda (wins close ST battle)

Bullpen: Jenks, Thorton, Linebrink, Dotel, Richard, Wasserman

Bench: Blanco C, Wise OF, Owens OF, Betemit 3b-1b, Lillybridge SS, 2b,

 

Coming up through out the season: Viciedo, Beckham, Flowers, Marquez, Homer Bailey ??

 

 

I know i have created a lot of these this offseason, but i truly believe that this is what its going to look like the closest. Listening to what KW had to say about why he is doing what he is doing last saturday really put it all in perspective.

 

 

 

[ptatc]

I'm not counting on anything from Contreras this season. Older players usually don't recover quickly, and his injury was pretty brutal. If anything, I see him as a Carrasco type from about the trade deadline on, and that might even be stretching it.

 

My guess is Contreras will be back around the All-Star break. That is a very conservative estimate based on age and getting his arm in shape.

 

[DaTank]

KW has said about 100 times thats Getz and Fields will be starting the season at 3b and 2b unless a guy like Viciedo and Beckham/Nix beat them in ST. Our infield is set. THe OF is KWs next area of focus. As of right now, there is no 'sure' CF AND with all the Dye trade rumors swirling around, I can see Quentin shifting to RF. That leaves LF and CF open. Does KW give Brian Anderson one last shot? Does he let Owens and Wise battle for a spot to become our leadoff hitter? Im not so sure about any of those. I could see KW go after a cheap bargain in Willy Tavarez. He could play LF. Meanwhile, Anderson, Wise and Owens can battle it in ST for CF.

 

If the Sox do trade Dye (which i think they absolutley should), that should give them pleanty of space to sign Tavarez, Blanco AND a Daniel Cabrera type pitcher.

 

Starting Lineup:

Getz 2B

Ramirez SS

Quentin RF

Thome DH

Konerko 1B

Pierzynski C

Fields 3B

Anderson CF

Tavarez LF

 

Rotation: Buerhle, Floyd, Danks, Cabrera, Poreda (wins close ST battle)

Bullpen: Jenks, Thorton, Linebrink, Dotel, Richard, Wasserman

Bench: Blanco C, Wise OF, Owens OF, Betemit 3b-1b, Lillybridge SS, 2b,

 

Coming up through out the season: Viciedo, Beckham, Flowers, Marquez, Homer Bailey ??

 

 

I know i have created a lot of these this offseason, but i truly believe that this is what its going to look like the closest. Listening to what KW had to say about why he is doing what he is doing last saturday really put it all in perspective.

 

He did say it would be his lineup at the end of the season, just saying. I agree with yours for the most part except I don't think Flowers will make it the Show this year unless it's only a couple of at bats in September. I also think the 4 slot will either be occupied by Cabrera or Bailey as well.

 

[SoxFanForever]

Konerko is going any where and neither is Dye.

[caulfield12]

Well, the "Big Board" is supposed to be 2-3 years down the line.

 

That said, competition for 6th reliever's position:

Link

Nunez (KW is really high on this kid)

Richard/Poreda (whoever loses out of a starter)

Jimenez (Blue Jays)

Russell

Wasserman

 

4th/5th starter

Marquez, Richard/Poreda, Broadway, Egbert, FA/Trade

 

Lillibridge, Fields, Beckham, Viciedo, Jordan Danks and Flowers are the potential starters (not counting Getz) in our system....with the possible exception of Brandon Allen and MAYBE Shelby, although I see him as a bench/role player at the major league level at this point.

 

Ideally, Lillibridge would beat out Getz for 2B and be the leadoff hitter...although Getz as a 2 hitter would be fine as well, not sure about leading off yet. Either one would be better than Nix IMO. Down the line, though, you have to feel that Beckham is best suited for 2B, both offensively and defensively.

 

Fields, if he can hold off Viciedo and stay healthy, would push Viciedo to LF or 1B/DH down the line...or possibly RF, if they felt his arm made him a better candidate for that position, and Quentin would stay in LF.

 

Flowers, ideally, will mature defensively, although he could replace Konerko or Thome down the line.

 

Allen, Viciedo, Fields and Flowers all could theoretically end up at 1B in 2011.

 

CF continues to be the biggest mystery. Owens, Anderson and Lillibridge would fight it out right now...with Jordan Danks on their heels in 2010 or 2011. That's assuming he doesn't roll the dice/kick the tires on Taveras.

 

I continue to believe that Cabrera/Taveras (or something like that) is much more likely than Abreu and any pitcher costing upwards of $8 million per season.

 

Marquis (with the Cubs eating 60% of his salary) and some combination of Pie OR Fukudome would be an interesting trade to fill two pressing needs for the White Sox right now. Not sure who'd we have to give up, and I think the Cubs would be scared to see Fukudome OR Pie excel on the SouthSide like Jon Garland did after the Karchner trade.

 

 

[ILMOU]

Well, the "Big Board" is supposed to be 2-3 years down the line.

 

I'll skip ahead then to 2011. Most of this could be in place at end of 2010:

 

Beckham 3B

Getz 2B (or Lilli, Nix etc. depending on who steps up)

Q RF

Brandon Allen/Flowers 1B other could be DH

Viciedo LF

Jordan Danks CF

Alexei SS

Unknown DH

Armstrong/Flowers C

 

All starters under 30, Alexei 29, Q 28

 

Rotation:

 

Danks

Floyd

Buehrle

Poreda

?

 

Only MB over 30

 

Could be potent, and affordable.

 

[scenario]

I'll skip ahead then to 2011. Most of this could be in place at end of 2010:

 

Beckham 3B

Getz 2B (or Lilli, Nix etc. depending on who steps up)

Q RF

Brandon Allen/Flowers 1B other could be DH

Viciedo LF

Jordan Danks CF

Alexei SS

Unknown DH

Armstrong/Flowers C

 

All starters under 30, Alexei 29, Q 28

 

Rotation:

 

Danks

Floyd

Buehrle

Poreda

?

 

Only MB over 30

 

Could be potent, and affordable.

 

As above with...

 

Viciedo --> DH

Shelby --> LF

Ely --> 5th starter

Brandon Allen --> 1B

Flowers --> C

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

I guess it's a pretty good sign of progress with our farm system that neither Marquez nor Ely are Top 10 prospects, and yet are realistically viewed as options for 4/5 starter down the line.

 

Gone are the days of Juan Silverio, Andy Gonzalez, Adam Russell, McCulloch, Broadway, Tracey, Francisco Hernandez, Arnie Munoz, etc. We also have a good group of pitching talent just coming into the system (like Carter and Hudson) that aren't in top 10 either. Link didn't make the cut as well. Same with Nunez, Gilmore and Rodriguez.

Edited December 17, 2008 by caulfield12

[MO2005]

Here's what i got

 

CF Taveras

2B Lillibridge

LF Quentin

RF Abreu

DH Thome

1B Konerko

C AJ

SS Ramirez

3B Viciedo

 

P Buehrle

P Danks

P Floyd

P Bailey

P Poreda

 

I know that pitching staff is scary good, right?

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Or scary bad. Lots of potential with Poreda and Bailey, but both of them could also be out of baseball in 3 years, too.

 

Buehrle and probably Danks are the closest to "known" quantities at this point. Anything could happen with Floyd, although I'm crossing my fingers he puts up the same numbers as last season. I'd definitely take that...but not counting on it.

[ptatc]

I guess it's a pretty good sign of progress with our farm system that neither Marquez nor Ely are Top 10 prospects, and yet are realistically viewed as options for 4/5 starter down the line.

 

Gone are the days of Juan Silverio, Andy Gonzalez, Adam Russell, McCulloch, Broadway, Tracey, Francisco Hernandez, Arnie Munoz, etc. We also have a good group of pitching talent just coming into the system (like Carter and Hudson) that aren't in top 10 either. Link didn't make the cut as well. Same with Nunez, Gilmore and Rodriguez.

 

I still think Broadway will be an adequate starting pitcher in MLB. No better than a 4 or 5 but I think he has a future in the league.

 

[ThunderBolt]

Gone are the days of Adam Russell

Adam Russell is going to be in the bullpen this year, and from the looks of it will have to carry a decent weight.

Edited December 17, 2008 by Thunderbolt

[caulfield12]

For the record, KW has already mentioned he expects Nunez to contribute THIS season out of the pen. He has also talked about Jimenez being a "plus" arm and about Link as well. I haven't heard many quotes from KW counting on Russell or Wasserman to do much this season. If he does, then it's a very pleasant surprise. His presence on the roster would also "knock" Poreda/Richard back down to Charlotte if they didn't make it as fifth starter....and I think both of them would be benefitted more from remaining on the major league roster with Cooper and pitching out of the pen ala Buehrle 2000.

Edited December 17, 2008 by caulfield12

[Princess Dye]

In the year 2090 our leadoff hitter will be John Shelby VIII

[Soxfest]

IF the Sox want to go cheaper in 2009 that is fine, but the 11% increase in ticket price is a bit hard to swallow. Only 10 teams increased prices for 2009.

[heirdog]

IF the Sox want to go cheaper in 2009 that is fine, but the 11% increase in ticket price is a bit hard to swallow. Only 10 teams increased prices for 2009.

 

That's a signal...JR is a smart business man. If you lower payroll and cry "recession" and then increase ticket prices, well, then you lose your fanbase as they cry "recession." So for a product that has been gaining momentum from 2005 on, you don't cut off the fans at this time. That would be suicide for the club and would set them back for years. I really think we are trimming payroll in order to reinvest it into more players. I'm not saying we will top last year's payroll or equal it but it won't be substantially less.

 

I think the hold up in the Dye-Bailey deal is that we are looking to have a contract worked out with Abreu first so that we don't have a gaping hole after trading Dye. The "financial" matters in that deal is that we are looking for Bobby to come down to about $9-10 million per for a max 2 yr deal, maybe an option on a third year.

 

I also think we'll sign Brad Penny on the cheap...just a gut feeling, no source. At that point in time, we may look to acquire Brian Roberts for a package of our young talent (Fields, BA, Poreda).

 

2009:

2B: Roberts

LF: Abreu

RF: CQ

DH: Thome

1B: Konerko

SS: Ramirez

3B: Betemit/Viciedo

C: AJP

CF: Owens/Tavares

 

Bench: Back-up Catcher, Wise, Lillibridge, Getz

 

LHP: Buehrle

RHP: Floyd

LHP: Danks

RHP: Penny

L/RHP: Richard, Marquez, Broadway

 

CL: Jenks

RHSU: Linebrink

LHSU: Thornton

RH: Dotel

RH: Russell

LH: Richard or FA

RH: Marquez/Broadway

 

[harfman77]

For 2009:

 

CF Owens/Wise

RF Abreu

LF Quentin

DH Thome

1B Konerko

C AJP

SS Ramirez

3B Fields/Betemit

2B Getz

 

SP Buerhle

SP Floyd

SP Danks

SP Marquez

SP Bailey/Penny/Contreras

 

CP Jenks

RP Linebrink

RP Dotel

RP Thornton

RP Russell

RP Richard

RP Carasco

 

BE Owens/Wise

BE Anderson

BE Fields/Betemit

BE Miller/???

 

For 2011:

 

 

LF Shelby/Lillibridge

SS Ramirez

LF Quentin

1B Allen

DH Viciendo

2B Beckham

CF Danks

C Flowers

3B Morel

 

SP Bailey

SP Danks

SP Floyd

SP Buerhle

SP Marquez

 

CP Link

RP Poreda

RP Nunez

RP Santeliz

RP Russell

RP Richard

RP Jiminez

 

BE Getz

BE Armstrong

BE Shelby/Lillibridge

BE Negron

 

Pretty right handed lineup so I think that there will some moves made to brought in some veteran LH bats. That bullpen is big on power arms until you get to the back end, and that is usually a crap shoot.