Marquez 2009 Stats = Javy 2008?

[Dick Allen]

well, whatever. You still need to tone down your posts. I wish yours were laughable, but they are more annoying and grating.

The ignore button is your friend.

[scenario]

The only problem with doing that is not many teams, if any, are willing to deal during spring training.

 

That's true during the early weeks. But there's always some movement late in spring training once teams figure out what they have and what they need.

 

If somebody in a team's camp steps up... all of a sudden you have spare parts you can use to fill other needs.

 

Anyway... that's what I'm figurin'...

Edited December 21, 2008 by scenario

[beck72]

Trust me, the people making those comparisons are nuts.

So, I take it you have first hand knowledge of Marquez?

[fathom]

So, I take it you have first hand knowledge of Marquez?

 

My brother saw him a few times, and was extremely unimpressed.

[False Alarm]

From Minor League Baseball:

For 2007:

 

"Was 15-9 with a 3.65 ERA (155.1IP, 166H, 80R, 63ER, 44BB, 94K) in 27 starts with Double-A Trenton...opponents batted .270 (166-for-615, 11HR); LH .292 (83-for-284, 5HR), RH .251 (83-for-331, 6HR)...led the Eastern League in wins, ranked second in innings pitched and placed 10th in ERA... his 15 wins placed him second among all Double-A pitchers and tied for ninth overall in the minors..."

 

Also the Eastern League All Star Game Starting Pitcher

 

GB / FB rate: 1.30, not 52%

nothing in this post takes issue with anything i said. not sure why you posted it, to be honest.

 

as for his GB rate, my number comes from minor league splits (52.7% at AA trenton in 2007): http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=457812.

 

not sure where your 1.30 ratio comes from.

[False Alarm]

Really... What scouting reports have you read?

sorry, i thought it was understood i was saying that no publicly available scouting reports suggest his stuff is improving. if you can direct me to something that suggests otherwise, i'd be excited to check it out. failing that, we have obsolete reports saying he has #2 upside. sorry if those don't get me worked up.

 

I guess KW didn't get the memo...

 

 

"He absolutely can challenge for a spot," White Sox general manager Ken Williams said. "We have a good read as to who he is and what he brings to the table. He shows a fastball at 90-94 mph, with a lot of sink."

 

Marquez entered 2008 ranked as the Yankees' No. 7 prospect but suffered through a disappointing season, limited to 19 starts because of a shoulder strain.

 

Williams compares him to former White Sox righthander Jon Garland, whose sinker allowed him to be successful at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Park.

 

"It's a similar style to Garland in our ballpark," Williams said. "In addition, he has a slider and curveball with depth, and a power change to both righthanded and lefthanded hitters. He also holds runners on well, something we have not been too successful with in the last couple of years, and he fields his position."

stop it. neither of us is naive enough to put any stock in anything KW says.

 

i think marquez has a chance to be a poor man's garland eventually. i didn't say he's completely hopeless. it's just silly to expect much of anything from him this year.

[beck72]

nothing in this post takes issue with anything i said. not sure why you posted it, to be honest.

 

as for his GB rate, my number comes from minor league splits (52.7% at AA trenton in 2007): http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=457812.

 

not sure where your 1.30 ratio comes from.

You said Marquez's 2007 in AA was nothing special. If being the starting pitcher in the AA Allstar game is nothing special, not to mention his other numbers, then I'd like to know what a decent year in AA would look like.

[Dick Allen]

You said Marquez's 2007 in AA was nothing special. If being the starting pitcher in the AA Allstar game is nothing special, not to mention his other numbers, then I'd like to know what a decent year in AA would look like.

His 2007 was pretty similar to Wes Whisler's 2008. Whisler did his in a AAA bandbox while Marquez was in AA. They both were drafted the same year. Marquez was picked 41st, Whisler 53rd. Whisler was available to any team for 50k this offseason. Every team passed. He's not much of a prospect. There are a lot of players that have had decent years in AA and 2 seasons later weren't contributing at the major league level. He did have a decent year in 2007, but it wasn't eye-poppingly impressive. I'm glad that you and a few others are optimistic about how he will pitch at the major league level in 2009. I hope you are right. I just don't see it. Check what Ian Kennedy did as his teammate in 2007. I don't think you'd trust him with a rotation spot in 2009.

Edited December 21, 2008 by Dick Allen

[scenario]

His 2007 was pretty similar to Wes Whisler's 2008. Whisler did his in a AAA bandbox while Marquez was in AA.

 

OMG... I don't BELIEVE you're attempting this comparison.

 

Marquez is a power arm.

 

He has a 94-95mph fastball and a 90-93mph power sinker.

 

As pitchers go... Wes Whisler is a great hitter. Period.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2008 by scenario

[hitlesswonder]

OMG... I don't BELIEVE you're attempting this comparison.

 

Marquez is a power arm.

 

He has a 94-95mph fastball and a 90-93mph power sinker.

 

As pitchers go... Wes Whisler is a great hitter. Period.

 

As even Jeff Marquez says, he is not a power pitcher. That is simply not what he is all about. However, he can still bring it with some good heat. Marquez's fastball is usually in the low 90's and topping out around 94 MPH. He does have what some would call a power fastball, but his fastball is used more so to get groundballs.

link here

 

It's an old scouting report, but I don't think his stuff has changed much. His fastball sits in the low 90s. Guys with fastballs that sit at 94 are very rare.

[Dick Allen]

OMG... I don't BELIEVE you're attempting this comparison.

 

Marquez is a power arm.

 

He has a 94-95mph fastball and a 90-93mph power sinker.

 

As pitchers go... Wes Whisler is a great hitter. Period.

I'm not comparing their tools, just their seasons, but Marquez is not a power pitcher. Here's BPs scouting report after his "stellar" 2007.

 

Marquez was the Yankees' supplemental-round pick in the 2004 draft. He throws a sinking fastball and, given his declining strikout rates, seems to want to take the Chien-Ming Wang path to success. It's a grand idea but for two problems: his ground-ball rate took a step back last year, and there's only one Wang. Marquez will be among the team's starting prospects to be considered for the major league pen this spring, but will likely start the season in the Triple-A rotation.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2008 by Dick Allen

[scenario]

Here is a preseason 2008 report on Marquez...

 

Strengths: Known as a groundball guy, Marquez works off his power 89-93 mph sinker. His fastball has as much life as any in the (Yankees) system, with excellent run to go with its sink. His changeup and curveball have improved to be solid-average pitches. He commands his changeup better, making it his preferred secondary pitch. He has the best pickoff move of any righthander in the system.

 

Weaknesses: Marquez doesn't have enough power or bite to his curveball for it to be a strikeout pitch, and he's dependent on his defense because he doesn't miss a lot of bats. He'll have to continue to refine his fastball command and have that pitch play up if his curve doesn't improve.

 

The Future: Marquez has the chance to become a workhorse groundball machine who fills the No. 3 or 4 slot in a rotation. Because of New York's pitching depth, he'll start 2008 in Triple-A and won't challenge for a big league job until the following year.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Here's additional information from a mid-season 2007 article by BA's Chris Kline.

 

Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne have the best pure stuff in the Trenton rotation, and no scout would go out on a limb to give either one an edge at this point. Marquez, a supplemental first-rounder in 2004, has a live arm that consistently produces 94-95 mph four-seamers. His sinker is even better, though both his curveball and changeup lag behind the other two offerings right now.

 

"He's got a real quick arm and works very fast, good rhythm," a scout from an American League club said. "His curveball is a little too soft, too loopy at times. He can really get around it and doesn't have the consistency you might think. But he's a power arm with an awful lot of upside. He could really be a groundball machine."

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The pro's on Marquez are his fastball and sinker. Both are reportedly very good pitches.

 

The knock on Marquez seems to be:

- Lack of consistency/command with his change and curve

- Lack of a true out pitch

- Nothing he's been able to throw consistently inside to left-handed hitters

 

As a result, he ends up being a two-pitch pitcher who's dependent on pitching to contact to get outs. The strange thing is that on occasion both the curve and changeup are reported to be looking really good. Plus pitch potential. Then they disappear again. So, is it mechanical? Or mental?

 

He was working on a slider this year to give him a solid 3rd pitch. My guess is that Coop already has him learning the cutter as an off-season assignment.

 

So... what can we expect from him this year? Dunno. But if... a big if... he demonstrates consistency in an offspeed pitch and makes progress in the three issues listed above... he could make an impact in 2009.

 

I'm not saying that his success is a given. Not at all.

 

But consider that a year ago this time, most people were saying very similar things about Danks. (Two good pitches... inconsistent changeup... no pitch to throw inside to righties.) What happened? He improved the change and added a cutter. And got some pretty dramatic improvements in results.

 

Let's hope the Sox can make similar changes and progress with JM.

Edited December 22, 2008 by scenario

[Jeremy]

Is it impossible that Marquez contributes to the team next season or that he has a good career? Of course not, it's just unlikely.

 

We're looking at a pitcher without great numbers, who's never been considered better than a solid prospect, and who's not particularly young, so I see no reason to be excited about him. Most teams have middling prospects like this in their system (I don't see a huge difference between Marquez and Broadway either).

 

Sometimes a pitcher like this defies the odds and becomes good, so you will be able to find comparisons like Wang. It's just important to remember that it happens infrequently. Comparisons to guys like Garland, Floyd, and Danks are misguided because all those pitchers were considered excellent prospects at one point for clear reasons.

 

If the idea here is to look at Kenny's past moves as precedents, then turning Marquez into a successful starter will be a failure. We whiffed when we tried that with mediocre prospects like Masset, Grilli, and Glover. If we get something out of Marquez, I'm guessing it will be out of the pen.

[scenario]

Let's see...

 

Players/Round selected/Minor league ERA and # of seasons in the minors

 

Garland 1st round (3.55 in 5 minor league seasons)

Danks 1st round (4.20 in 4 seasons)

Floyd 1st round (3.69 in 6 seasons)

 

Masset 8th round (4.57 in 7 minor league seasons)

Grilli 24th round (4.51 in 8 seasons)

Glover 15th round (4.75 in 12 seasons)

 

And Marquez....... 1st round (supplemental)

The 41st player picked in the entire 2004 draft

Minor league career ERA... 3.60 in 5 minor league seasons

Edited December 22, 2008 by scenario

[witesoxfan]

There are similarities, such as having good numbers in most of his minor league stops and playing in an ASG. Yet Egbert only was looked at as a top prospect heading into 2008, a 13th rd pick, a year older than Marquez, and viewed as a 5th SP at best. Going by numbers, Egbert would seem a decent bet to bounce back. But "stuff-wise", Egbert hasn't had the tools to get people's attention. It's odd, but hardly a word of him gets mentioned.

 

I recall differently, especially on this board (and I'm not talking about just Heads here, there were several, myself included, who thought Egbert had/has a chance to be a decent starting pitcher in the majors). You wanted an example of that, and I gave you one. Egbert had been good in the minors up until he hit AAA, had one bad year, and he was suddenly an afterthought.

[Jordan4life_2007]

How many young starting pitchers has KW acquired who have had an immediate successful impact on the White Sox major league team?

 

None that I can think of. Contreras went on his 1 1/2 tear after about 15 up-and-down starts in 2004. But that's about it. I don't think anyone is predicting Marquez to win the ROY.

 

Maybe you backed off of your Richard criticism but saying you deserve slack because he was a White Sox draftee and Marquez was not, making it a totally different situation is beyond laughable. I still haven't called Marquez garbage. The biggest slam I've given him is he's more like Lance Broadway than any of the other names mentioned. Of course, that may be considered worse than calling him garbage.

 

I didn't say anywhere in that post that I deserved slack. I admitted a week ago that I was being ignorant as far as Richard goes. But when Mark Buehrle is the only homegrown starting pitcher you've produced in, I don't know, 8 years, it's easy to question or even slam any White Sox draftee (again, I admit I was wrong). Kenny has apparently been after Marquez for a couple years now. We know when Kenny is chasing a guy for that long it must be for a reason. We've seen these exact types of acquisitions before. And many of them have worked out. That's where my "selective" memory comment came in.

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

My brother saw him a few times, and was extremely unimpressed.

 

Not at all trying to be a smartass here. But your brother seems to be awfully hard to impress. Does he have any legitimate credentials when it comes to scouting? You might've shared this info already. I just don't recall.

Edited December 22, 2008 by Jordan4life

[Jeremy]

Let's see...

 

Players/Round selected/Minor league ERA and # of seasons in the minors

 

Garland 1st round (3.55 in 5 minor league seasons)

Danks 1st round (4.20 in 4 seasons)

Floyd 1st round (3.69 in 6 seasons)

 

Masset 8th round (4.57 in 7 minor league seasons)

Grilli 24th round (4.51 in 8 seasons)

Glover 15th round (4.75 in 12 seasons)

 

And Marquez....... 1st round (supplemental)

The 41st player picked in the entire 2004 draft

Minor league career ERA... 3.60 in 5 minor league seasons

 

The round a player was drafted is a terrible way of comparing (advanced) prospects because it doesn't account for anything they've done in the minor leagues. Here we're talking about players with several minor league seasons apiece so we don't need to give much weight to what scouts thought of them before they had the opportunity to watch them pitch many times against more advanced competition.

 

Your analysis of prospects is grossly oversimplified for one primary reason: you appear to look solely at ERA.

 

First, ERA is a small piece of the puzzle when all is said and done because the player's age relative to his level, the quality of his stuff, and his peripheral stats, are at least as important as ERA. Marquez doesn't come out very well on any of those accounts: he's never been young for his level, he doesn't have nasty stuff (as evidenced by his low K-rate and his absence from top prospect lists), and his peripheral stats are decent at best.

 

Take Masset for instance: he was easily considered roughly as good a prospect than Marquez (BA ranked him 8th in a solid Rangers system in 2006). Yeah, his career minor league ERA was not as good as Marquez's but scouts liked him because he could hit the high 90's with his fastball.

 

I didn't really cite Masset, Grilli, and Glover because I think they're highly similar prospects to Marquez, I did it because people seem to be caught up in the notion that Kenny acquired an unheralded prospect who could fit into the rotation. My point is that if we really want to compare Marquez to other pitchers Kenny has tried that with, we should look at Grilli, Glover, and Masset before Garland, Floyd, and Danks.

 

We can break it down more meaningfully than you did:

 

Age at time of major league debut:

 

Garland - 20

Floyd - 21

Danks - 22

Glover - 22

Grilli - 23

Masset - 24

Marquez - 24 (?)

 

Peak Top 100 Prospects Ranking (Baseball America):

 

Floyd - 9

Garland - 32

Grilli - 44

Danks - 56

Glover - N/A

Masset - N/A

Marquez - N/A

 

 

[Heads22]

Egbert was hurt this year and never recovered.

[scenario]

I didn't really cite Masset, Grilli, and Glover because I think they're highly similar prospects to Marquez, I did it because people seem to be caught up in the notion that Kenny acquired an unheralded prospect who could fit into the rotation.

 

Well... if you were clearer about that earlier you would have saved us both a lot of time responding to each other's posts.

[beck72]

The round a player was drafted is a terrible way of comparing (advanced) prospects because it doesn't account for anything they've done in the minor leagues. Here we're talking about players with several minor league seasons apiece so we don't need to give much weight to what scouts thought of them before they had the opportunity to watch them pitch many times against more advanced competition.

 

Your analysis of prospects is grossly oversimplified for one primary reason: you appear to look solely at ERA.

 

First, ERA is a small piece of the puzzle when all is said and done because the player's age relative to his level, the quality of his stuff, and his peripheral stats, are at least as important as ERA. Marquez doesn't come out very well on any of those accounts: he's never been young for his level, he doesn't have nasty stuff (as evidenced by his low K-rate and his absence from top prospect lists), and his peripheral stats are decent at best.

 

Take Masset for instance: he was easily considered roughly as good a prospect than Marquez (BA ranked him 8th in a solid Rangers system in 2006). Yeah, his career minor league ERA was not as good as Marquez's but scouts liked him because he could hit the high 90's with his fastball.

 

I didn't really cite Masset, Grilli, and Glover because I think they're highly similar prospects to Marquez, I did it because people seem to be caught up in the notion that Kenny acquired an unheralded prospect who could fit into the rotation. My point is that if we really want to compare Marquez to other pitchers Kenny has tried that with, we should look at Grilli, Glover, and Masset before Garland, Floyd, and Danks.

 

We can break it down more meaningfully than you did:

 

Age at time of major league debut:

 

Garland - 20

Floyd - 21

Danks - 22

Glover - 22

Grilli - 23

Masset - 24

Marquez - 24 (?)

 

Peak Top 100 Prospects Ranking (Baseball America):

 

Floyd - 9

Garland - 32

Grilli - 44

Danks - 56

Glover - N/A

Masset - N/A

Marquez - N/A

A few things:

 

*Marquez' peripheral stats from the minors are similar to Garland and Wang, two guys he's compared to. I posted those in this thread. Looking at what they did in the minors, and what Marquez has done, it's not that far from reality that Marquez could put up major league numbers probably not as good as Wang, but maybe better than what Garland has done.

 

*The age a person breaks through to the majors is often irrelevant. Players are often rushed when they aren't ready, and it may be for a cup of coffee. I'd take more stock in when a pitcher "gets over the hump" [finds success and stays in the majors].

 

*Your rationale of Marquez' "Absence from top prospects lists" as a reason he shouldn't make it in the majors doesn't cut it. In any given year, for every top 100 minor league prospect that has a good career, there are many more outside of that 100 that can be productive major leaguers.

 

*Masset was only 8th in the Texas system afeter being converted into a reliever. He toiled for years outside the Texas top 30. Marquez was always a top prospect with the Yanks since being drafted. Marquez fits in better with the Garland, Danks and Floyd group, based on potential, stuff and performance in the minors than with Grilli, Glover and Masset.

 

 

[beck72]

I like your optimism but when you ask fans for their opinions 90% of the time it's going to be pessimistic.

 

I think Marquez seems to have good tools for success. Whether that happens in 2009 or 2010 I'll reserve judgement for spring training. Remember that Floyd had good tools but spent a full year in AAA with the White Sox before he contributed at the major league level. Of course Danks impressed right away and made the jump to the major league level.

 

I think the tools are there, the opportunity is there, now it's up to Marquez to take advantage.

I knew I'd take some hits. But it's sometimes better to go out on a limb.

 

I thought it would be a good comparison of when Danks and Floyd were not only able to come to the majors, but actually help and possibly Marquez, to see if Marquez could actually pitch in the rotation in 2009 and have some success.

 

Floyd was acquired because he had a lot of issues to work through, and was a project. Danks wasn't screwed up, only young for his age in the various minor league stops. Danks could have used more time in the minors, and Floyd was brought in on a good timetable. Marquez doesn't seem as screwed up as Floyd was, and seems more ready than Danks as far as seasoning in the minors. Whether Marquez can put it together in Spring, who knows. But based on the sox offseason moves, esp. not getting a Reyes or Morton in the Javy deal, they seem relatively assured he can challenge for a SP spot for them in 2009.

[Dick Allen]

Let's see...

 

Players/Round selected/Minor league ERA and # of seasons in the minors

 

Garland 1st round (3.55 in 5 minor league seasons)

Danks 1st round (4.20 in 4 seasons)

Floyd 1st round (3.69 in 6 seasons)

 

Masset 8th round (4.57 in 7 minor league seasons)

Grilli 24th round (4.51 in 8 seasons)

Glover 15th round (4.75 in 12 seasons)

 

And Marquez....... 1st round (supplemental)

The 41st player picked in the entire 2004 draft

Minor league career ERA... 3.60 in 5 minor league seasons

 

Garland, Danks, Floyd were taken out of HS. Marquez went to college.

 

[beck72]

Garland, Danks, Floyd were taken out of HS. Marquez went to college.

Community college for 1 year. Marquez started in the minors at age 19.

[Dick Allen]

Community college for 1 year. Marquez started in the minors at age 19.

Considering Garland at Marquez's age had pitched more innings in the major leagues than Marquez had pitched as a professional, I don't think comparing their minor league ERA's would be an accurate measure of what Marquez will do. I hope he's as good as you think. I believe, at least for 2009, its a pipedream.