10 Worst Predictions of 2008

[BigSqwert]

Here's an interesting read to kill your next 10 minutes.

 

 

[lostfan]

All the ones about the economy are epic fails. The first one is pretty bad too.

[BigSqwert]

Jim Cramer got pwned.

[mr_genius]

Bill Krystol has the amazing ability to be wrong, constantly.

[BigSqwert]

Bill Krystol has the amazing ability to be wrong, constantly.

I honestly think they could pick some random person off the street and they'd guess things more accurately then that guy.

[Balta1701]

The remarkable thing about these things is not that people get things wrong.

 

It's that the people who keep consistently getting things wrong also keep getting promoted.

[StrangeSox]

The remarkable thing about these things is not that people get things wrong.

 

It's that the people who keep consistently getting things wrong also keep getting promoted.

 

Or air time/ print space.

 

Seriously, has Kristol been right about anything in the past decade? And yet he's still on TV week-in, week-out.

[mr_genius]

Or air time/ print space.

 

Seriously, has Kristol been right about anything in the past decade? And yet he's still on TV week-in, week-out.

 

truth is you can find a number of political 'experts' on tv or print that miss the mark very often.

 

even though he has a lot of competition, Bill Krystol is still tough to beat when it comes to being wrong about stuff.

Edited December 23, 2008 by mr_genius

[bmags]

Jim Cramer needs to be fired, man. Why do people listen to him? I don't care if he gets you ratings, the man is probably hurting people's lives. "SEARS is great man, go buy sears!" "The subprime mortgage crisis is a load of hooey" "Don't move your money out of bear stearns!" (when market is at 8300) "Get all your money out now, get it all out"

 

Unbelievable.

edit: also, Foreign Policy probably should've added a bloop of their own too...ha

Edited December 23, 2008 by bmags

[juddling]

Jim Cramer needs to be fired, man. Why do people listen to him? I don't care if he gets you ratings, the man is probably hurting people's lives. "SEARS is great man, go buy sears!" "The subprime mortgage crisis is a load of hooey" "Don't move your money out of bear stearns!" (when market is at 8300) "Get all your money out now, get it all out"

 

Unbelievable.

edit: also, Foreign Policy probably should've added a bloop of their own too...ha

 

 

I don't watch Cramer but there are a couple of clips on Youtube that compare his rants from one week to the next and clearly shoe the contradictory nature of his statements. Heck...he might as well go start guessing the weather too.

[southsider2k5]

I don't watch Cramer but there are a couple of clips on Youtube that compare his rants from one week to the next and clearly shoe the contradictory nature of his statements. Heck...he might as well go start guessing the weather too.

 

Out of curiousity, why wouldn't you believe that a stock's status could change dramatically in a week in these times?

[mreye]

“The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months.” —Arjun Murti, Goldman Sachs oil analyst, in a May 5, 2008, report

 

The vaunted predictive powers of Murti, dubbed the “oracle of oil” in a glowing New York Times profile, failed him this time. Oil prices peaked in July at about $147 a barrel before beginning a long decline. Thanks to a decrease in demand because of the global recession, prices are now nearing the $40 mark, and some experts even see $25 as a possibility next year.

 

 

$147 is pretty close to $150 and all he said was "increasingly likely." If this makes their top ten I'd say the predictors had a good year.

[HuskyCaucasian]

“There is a real possibility of creating destructive theoretical anomalies such as miniature black holes, strangelets and deSitter space transitions. These events have the potential to fundamentally alter matter and destroy our planet.” —Walter Wagner, LHCDefense.org

 

People keep saying that. But, the type of collision being created by the Large Hadron Collider happens ever second of every day in our atmosphere. They are simply doing it a controlled environment where you can see the results.

[NorthSideSox72]

People keep saying that. But, the type of collision being created by the Large Hadron Collider happens ever second of every day in our atmosphere. They are simply doing it a controlled environment where you can see the results.

That isn't the impression I got at all. I don't think these collisions happen all the time in our atmosphere.

 

Balta?

 

[Balta1701]

That isn't the impression I got at all. I don't think these collisions happen all the time in our atmosphere.

 

Balta?

Yea, they pretty much do.

[Balta1701]

Jim Cramer needs to be fired, man. Why do people listen to him? I don't care if he gets you ratings, the man is probably hurting people's lives. "SEARS is great man, go buy sears!" "The subprime mortgage crisis is a load of hooey" "Don't move your money out of bear stearns!" (when market is at 8300) "Get all your money out now, get it all out"

 

Unbelievable.

edit: also, Foreign Policy probably should've added a bloop of their own too...ha

Jim Cramer interestingly is a guy who makes enough predictions for you to do a statistically significant analysis of his work. Turns out you'd make more money if you didn't listen to him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yea, they pretty much do.

Really. Fascinating. I was under the impression these were special events.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Really. Fascinating. I was under the impression these were special events.

basically it's two particles running into each other near the speed of light. Something like 99.99999% the speed of light. That happens with particles thrown from the sun all the time.

[DukeNukeEm]

“It starts with the taking over of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which has already happened. It goes on to the destruction of the Georgian armed forces, which is now happening. The third [development] will probably be the replacement of the elected government, which is pro-Western, with a puppet government, which will probably follow in a week or two.” —Charles Krauthammer, Fox News, Aug. 11, 2008

 

----------

 

This was a shockingly prevalent fear back in August among a lot of Americans. Russia is big and scary grrrr

[bmags]

was there a worse time for them to do it then right before commodities collapse? It was like a preview that we'll have to wait 2 years for the movie. They are certainly less scary when the ruble drops to a 3-year low, oil and nat. gas prices plummeting and their gov't action scared away foreign investors before the economy even scared away foreign investors. I hope it cripples them into doing somehting incredibly stupid. I hate Medvedev/Putin.

 

Side note: DId Medvedev's propsed increase of term limits pass through?

[mr_genius]

“It starts with the taking over of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which has already happened. It goes on to the destruction of the Georgian armed forces, which is now happening. The third [development] will probably be the replacement of the elected government, which is pro-Western, with a puppet government, which will probably follow in a week or two.” —Charles Krauthammer, Fox News, Aug. 11, 2008

 

----------

 

This was a shockingly prevalent fear back in August among a lot of Americans. Russia is big and scary grrrr

 

 

Krauthammer did not take into consideration the strong support the Georgian government would get. The Russians now are still trying their power moves with their sad naval exercises; sending war ships around to South America and off our coasts to Cuba. I'm sure there will be more shenanigans in Eastern Europe, they'll likely test Obama and will probably be disappointed when they find out he's not going to abandon NATO allies. They are trying to show how strong they are, but it's failing. It's fairly surprising to hear people who support the Russians moves, but I suppose it should come as no surprise as some (a very small minority of people) feel a communist doctorial government is necessary for true social justice.

Edited December 23, 2008 by mr_genius

[Soxbadger]

Well there is also some evidence that perhaps Georgia was not as innocent as they claimed.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle5114401.ece

 

Grist, who resigned from the OSCE shortly afterwards, has told The New York Times it was Georgia that launched the first military strikes against Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital.

 

“It was clear to me that the [Georgian] attack was completely indiscriminate and disproportionate to any, if indeed there had been any, provocation,” he said. “The attack was clearly, in my mind, an indiscriminate attack on the town, as a town.”

 

Last month Young gave a similar briefing to visiting military.

 

The inquiry comes as the EU softens its hardline position towards Russia amid mounting European scepticism about Saakashvili’s judgment.

 

There is also something about in November the US coming out and saying that Georgia's response was a mistake.

 

I cant find the actual press release so Im not going to quote it, but it appears that Georgia was not as innocent as once believed.

 

It just shows how easily most American's are willing to accept that Russia are the "bad guys".

[mr_genius]

Well there is also some evidence that perhaps Georgia was not as innocent as they claimed.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle5114401.ece

 

 

 

 

 

There is also something about in November the US coming out and saying that Georgia's response was a mistake.

 

I cant find the actual press release so Im not going to quote it, but it appears that Georgia was not as innocent as once believed.

 

It just shows how easily most American's are willing to accept that Russia are the "bad guys".

 

The truth in these scenarios really do boil down to a classic realists view of world events in which countries act mainly out of self interest. Of course, there is also the 'blame America and it's allies for everything, no matter what the majority of evidence shows'; there is of course American national interest, which our country (like all others) pursues. I will definitely agree with you that it is not as simple as 'evil America' or 'Russia is evil'. Both have agendas.

 

a pretty good evaluation of the situation, from a ex-Clinton guy

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Story?id=5595811&page=1

 

They [the Russians] sent a message that Georgia has been their backyard, was their backyard and will be their backyard," said Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, who has studied Russia and its economy and was a State Department officer during the Clinton administration. "And included in that is control of the energy transportation routes in that area."

Edited December 23, 2008 by mr_genius