ESPN-Vazquez Trade report

[elrockinMT]

I am not ceratin this was ever posted, but if so please delete. I just came across the ESPN Hot Stove Report and their analysis of the Vazquez trade to Atlanta. What do you think?

 

Young catcher could be key to Vazquez trade

 

Thursday, December 4, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

 

 

Posted by Keith Law

Javier Vazquez comes to Atlanta for one good prospect, a wild-card arm, and some filler.

 

"Big Game Javy" is a durable mid-rotation starter, good for 200 innings a year, still young at 31, and maddening in his inability to meet expectations based on his peripheral stats. He sits 90-93 mph, bumping 94, without much movement. He tends to miss in the upper-middle part of the zone two or three times a game, and because he defaults to his fastball when he's behind in the count, it results in some very hard-hit balls. He works with three off-speed pitches -- slider, curve and changeup -- none plus, both breaking balls around average, the change slightly below, and has better control than command; his 59 unintentional walks this year actually his made up his highest total since his rookie year in 1998.

 

Vazquez actually ranks ninth among active starters in strikeouts, 14th in innings pitched, 13th in fewest walks per nine innings … and 11th in home runs allowed, behind eight pitchers aged 40 and up. He holds the patent on the Really Bad Pitch and is currently litigating for trademark rights to the term "One Bad Inning," all of which seems small beans now that his former manager, Ozzie Guillen, has tagged Vazquez as unable to pitch in big games.

 

In the six-player trade, Atlanta also gets Boone Logan, a low-slot lefty specialist who almost shot-puts the ball to the plate. He tops out at 91 mph and his slider doesn't have great tilt, so he's limited to platoon duty and is going to be prone to the long ball. But he could have a good run as a one-out lefty, and he's cheap for 2009 and under control for three years after that. Logan is interesting if for no other reason than the fact that he has thrown only 5 1/3 innings between short-season ball and Triple-A.

 

The package going back to the White Sox relies heavily on one prospect, breakout slugger Tyler Flowers, to make it a solid return. Brent Lillibridge is a nice utility player who can handle playing shortstop, second or center field but who is little more than a slap-hitter without good secondary skills, limiting his upside to a bench role. Third baseman Jon Gilmore is a moderate-tools prospect with very limited feel, below-average speed, and a limited power ceiling; he reminds me of Ryan Sweeney, another player from Iowa who was hyped as an amateur beyond what his actual tools merited.

 

The wild card for Chicago is left-hander Santos Rodriguez, a Gulf Coast League repeater with an outstanding arm. He's a long, lanky kid whose fastball sits 95-96 mph, and he shows some feel for a breaking ball. The delivery isn't pretty, and his command is still well below average, so he probably projects as a reliever. But his upside, even in the pen, is substantial, although his probability of reaching it right now given his inexperience and delivery is not that high.

 

Flowers, on the other hand, is going to produce offensively at the big-league level, possibly as soon as 2010. It's not quite the way you'd draw it up -- he bars his front arm slightly with his hands all the way back and takes an all-out swing -- but he has a very good eye and raw power, particularly to left and left-center. (His 17 home runs may not look impressive, but Myrtle Beach -- high Class A -- is a horrible place to hit.) He may not hit for a high average -- I'd like to see him prove he can catch up to better fastballs, as his bat speed isn't great on top of where he starts his hands -- but he'll post a high OBP and should be a 25-plus home run guy when he's established in the majors, perhaps more in a homer-friendly park like Chicago's. Flowers' drawback is behind the plate, where he's slow and blocky and has a fringe-average arm; he'll never be a defensive asset, but the White Sox have lived with A.J. Pierzynski back there for years and won a World Series with him, so they don't seem likely to overvalue defense at catcher. If Flowers reaches or comes near his ceiling, he alone is a good return on two years of Vazquez at a slightly below-market $11 million per year. But if Flowers can't catch or has too much trouble making contact at higher levels, the rest of the package isn't likely to make up for it.

 

 

[Princess Dye]

I'm not hating the return for Vaz but it couldve been more

 

This is what we get Oz when we run our mouth and decrease the value of our own assets in the media. You tried to pump up Javy and it backfired now in two ways.

 

 

With Vaz we should have let him get to the offseason and try to trade him on the laurels of his stats alone.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm not hating the return for Vaz but it couldve been more

 

Posts like this drive me batty. How could you POSSIBLY know this? Know what market was out there for him? And if it could have been more, why on earth would they have not done that? It makes absolutely no sense.

 

I could understand saying that the return is not enough, so you keep him. But to say they could have done better is ridiculous.

 

With Vaz we should have let him get to the offseason and try to trade him on the laurels of his stats alone.

 

This is exactly what happened. So what is the complaint?

 

[caulfield12]

It reminds me of all the angst over the supposed three player deal for Jon Garland with the Astros that blew up...people read the Internet, blogs, mlbtraderumors, and they're convinced their GM is an idiot because half of what is written there is nonsense. I mean Gilmore gets compared to Ryan Sweeney and is labelled a disappointment simply because he's from Iowa? What? I mean, give the kid a chance to develop, c'mon. I've seen some premature rushes to judgment, and I'm not saying this is going to work out like the Herschel Walker trade did in the end, but there's almost no point in saying who won and lost a trade until 3-5 years have elapsed. Even then, it's kind of tricky. You can make many arguments back and forth about Vazquez for Chris Young still today...about who won and lost that deal. It might look very different again in another year. Same thing with the Swisher trade/s and the development of Viciedo. Maybe if we don't trade Swisher, we can't sign Viciedo for that amount of money...there are many ripple/cause-and-effect what if's with any trade. Like the one that got us Cotts, who played a big part in leading us to the World Series, even though that trade looked like a disaster at the time. Or Olivo for Bradford. Because it netted us Garcia eventually.

[elrockinMT]

My own feeling on this trade is that Javy Vazquez was going to be traded this off season no matter what. I would like to think he was worth some solid return-maybe we got the best trade maybe not-only time will tell I guess. I think we may have gotten some major talent that we will see in 2010. The issue with catching is pretty big in our organization so getting a top minor league prospect at that posiiton is a plus. Now we can have something to discuss next off season an that's: what will happen with AJ?

[BearSox]

I think it was a good trade for both teams. We got a 4 good young prospects, and they got a pitcher who can be their no. 1 or 2, or at least be a solid 4 or 5. They also got a good LOOGY, if used properly.

 

I think both teams will be happy this trade.

[scenario]

I wish I had book-marked some of the "Just cut Javy... because we'll never get a bag of balls for that loser" posts that seemed pretty common right after the season ended.

 

 

 

 

[Princess Dye]

Posts like this drive me batty. How could you POSSIBLY know this? Know what market was out there for him? And if it could have been more, why on earth would they have not done that? It makes absolutely no sense.

 

I could understand saying that the return is not enough, so you keep him. But to say they could have done better is ridiculous.

 

You kind of missed the point of my post in totality.

 

Vazquez value was not at all aided by Guillen's slamming him in the media at the very end of the regular season. Maybe we got fair value for Javy but I would absolutely like to have known what he'd net without the Guillen comments. That's all that's being said here.

 

If you have GM/Mgr synchronicity---if they are at all working together---- then you wont use the press to potentially tank the value of guys you are 2 months away from putting on the trade market.

 

 

You have to admit that Guillen saying "he's not a big game pitcher" followed by him losing the following starts makes him look like a dud on the market. It sure doesnt help.

Edited January 1, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Jimmywins1]

I don't know what you're complaining about, I think we got a pretty damn good haul for Javy, considering his blowup down the stretch.

[caulfield12]

I don't think Guillen's calling out Vazquez or even Swisher had any effect on their trade value.

 

Lots of NL teams (and GM's) still see (for whatever reason) Vazquez as a 1/2 caliber starter. That will always be the case. The other thing you have to take into consideration is he's not exactly cheap.

 

Lowe's being offered $36 million for 3 years by the Red Sox. I'm pretty sure he will get a little bit more than that, but that's right in line with what Dempster and Vazquez make per season, although Javier's deal only goes for two more seasons. If the White Sox agreed to take on some of that salary (unlikely), then they would have received an even better returned, potentially the top 3 names we heard bandied about so often at that time. But, at least for the White Sox, he was nothing close to what Dempster and Lowe would be expected to be for their new teams, which is a 2-3 type.

[Marky Mark]

I am not ceratin this was ever posted, but if so please delete. I just came across the ESPN Hot Stove Report and their analysis of the Vazquez trade to Atlanta. What do you think?

 

Young catcher could be key to Vazquez trade

 

Thursday, December 4, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

 

 

Posted by Keith Law

Javier Vazquez comes to Atlanta for one good prospect, a wild-card arm, and some filler.

 

"Big Game Javy" is a durable mid-rotation starter, good for 200 innings a year, still young at 31, and maddening in his inability to meet expectations based on his peripheral stats. He sits 90-93 mph, bumping 94, without much movement. He tends to miss in the upper-middle part of the zone two or three times a game, and because he defaults to his fastball when he's behind in the count, it results in some very hard-hit balls. He works with three off-speed pitches -- slider, curve and changeup -- none plus, both breaking balls around average, the change slightly below, and has better control than command; his 59 unintentional walks this year actually his made up his highest total since his rookie year in 1998.

 

Vazquez actually ranks ninth among active starters in strikeouts, 14th in innings pitched, 13th in fewest walks per nine innings … and 11th in home runs allowed, behind eight pitchers aged 40 and up. He holds the patent on the Really Bad Pitch and is currently litigating for trademark rights to the term "One Bad Inning," all of which seems small beans now that his former manager, Ozzie Guillen, has tagged Vazquez as unable to pitch in big games.

 

In the six-player trade, Atlanta also gets Boone Logan, a low-slot lefty specialist who almost shot-puts the ball to the plate. He tops out at 91 mph and his slider doesn't have great tilt, so he's limited to platoon duty and is going to be prone to the long ball. But he could have a good run as a one-out lefty, and he's cheap for 2009 and under control for three years after that. Logan is interesting if for no other reason than the fact that he has thrown only 5 1/3 innings between short-season ball and Triple-A.

 

The package going back to the White Sox relies heavily on one prospect, breakout slugger Tyler Flowers, to make it a solid return. Brent Lillibridge is a nice utility player who can handle playing shortstop, second or center field but who is little more than a slap-hitter without good secondary skills, limiting his upside to a bench role. Third baseman Jon Gilmore is a moderate-tools prospect with very limited feel, below-average speed, and a limited power ceiling; he reminds me of Ryan Sweeney, another player from Iowa who was hyped as an amateur beyond what his actual tools merited.

 

The wild card for Chicago is left-hander Santos Rodriguez, a Gulf Coast League repeater with an outstanding arm. He's a long, lanky kid whose fastball sits 95-96 mph, and he shows some feel for a breaking ball. The delivery isn't pretty, and his command is still well below average, so he probably projects as a reliever. But his upside, even in the pen, is substantial, although his probability of reaching it right now given his inexperience and delivery is not that high.

 

Flowers, on the other hand, is going to produce offensively at the big-league level, possibly as soon as 2010. It's not quite the way you'd draw it up -- he bars his front arm slightly with his hands all the way back and takes an all-out swing -- but he has a very good eye and raw power, particularly to left and left-center. (His 17 home runs may not look impressive, but Myrtle Beach -- high Class A -- is a horrible place to hit.) He may not hit for a high average -- I'd like to see him prove he can catch up to better fastballs, as his bat speed isn't great on top of where he starts his hands -- but he'll post a high OBP and should be a 25-plus home run guy when he's established in the majors, perhaps more in a homer-friendly park like Chicago's. Flowers' drawback is behind the plate, where he's slow and blocky and has a fringe-average arm; he'll never be a defensive asset, but the White Sox have lived with A.J. Pierzynski back there for years and won a World Series with him, so they don't seem likely to overvalue defense at catcher. If Flowers reaches or comes near his ceiling, he alone is a good return on two years of Vazquez at a slightly below-market $11 million per year. But if Flowers can't catch or has too much trouble making contact at higher levels, the rest of the package isn't likely to make up for it.

 

 

Javy has tons of fastball movement. What is he talking about?

[witesoxfan]

You kind of missed the point of my post in totality.

 

Vazquez value was not at all aided by Guillen's slamming him in the media at the very end of the regular season. Maybe we got fair value for Javy but I would absolutely like to have known what he'd net without the Guillen comments. That's all that's being said here.

 

If you have GM/Mgr synchronicity---if they are at all working together---- then you wont use the press to potentially tank the value of guys you are 2 months away from putting on the trade market.

 

 

You have to admit that Guillen saying "he's not a big game pitcher" followed by him losing the following starts makes him look like a dud on the market. It sure doesnt help.

 

Ozzie called Javy out for not being a big game pitcher with the hopes that Javy would step up and become a shutdown pitcher. It didn't happen. That's who Ozzie is and it's how he manages, and Javy would have choked either way. Ozzie's comments had little to no effect on Javy's value because Vazquez is who he is and teams know what they are getting into when they trade for him.

[scenario]

Javy has tons of fastball movement. What is he talking about?

 

Another good example of why I take everything Law writes with a grain of salt.

 

Javy may have had 'problems', but lack of movement on his pitches was not one of them.

 

He has absolutely nasty movement on his pitches.

 

[CWSOX45]

Another good example of why I take everything Law writes with a grain of salt.

 

Javy may have had 'problems', but lack of movement on his pitches was not one of them.

 

He has absolutely nasty movement on his pitches.

 

My thoughts exactly. You and Caulfield hit it right on the head. I hate reading blogs from these ESPN "experts." Most of them just regurgitate scouting reports that have been written in the past. Santos is turning 20 years old tomorrow. It's too early to simply say that the White Sox only got one proven prospect in this deal. More than likely Law hasn't even seen Gilmore or Rodriguez, not many national media members travel down to small minor league clubs to write about "raw" prospects, which is why most scouting reports found on the internet are usually flawed. I was reading another article the other day about Brad Holt, the Mets first round pick. The writer was from Baseball Prospectus. While breaking down his repitoire of pitches he claimed Holt had an above average slider. Had he done his homework he would have known that Holt's "slider" is actually a power curve, and towards the end of the year was relying on it much more than his fastball.

 

Basically the bottom line is that you can't believe everything you hear from the media, even if media members at one point were directly involved in baseball operations.

 

 

[elrockinMT]

Another good example of why I take everything Law writes with a grain of salt.

 

Javy may have had 'problems', but lack of movement on his pitches was not one of them.

 

He has absolutely nasty movement on his pitches.

 

I am sure a lot of teams recognize the upside to Vazquez and that's a 200 inning/200 K a year guy. He has the talent it's just that he can't step up and be more than a .500 pitcher. It must be totally freustrating to his pitching coaches and managers.