One of the first "projected" standings, Sox dead last

[Melissa1334]

i couldnt agree more , 4th, 5th starters, 3b, 2b, cf, the health of pk, thome dye, cq.... i dont see how anyone should expect the experts or those websites from choosing us to finish 1st or 2nd. if the sox r truly going to go with the roster as it stands, might as well trade dye and the older players. we wont win anything this year. go all young

 

1. Making predictions about team standings before late March is absolutely pointless. You'd have better luck picking names out of a hat.

 

2. Conveniently, NYY is the one team who really seems to have bulked up their roster first, so naturally this blog would like to do standings NOW.

 

3. Evidence:

 

 

 

Conculsion: LOLOLOLOLOLOL

 

ok #1 makes sense but whats so funny? what, u think the sox r going to finish 1st or have a great team? ur being overly optimistic.

Edited January 14, 2009 by Melissa1334

[bmags]

i couldnt agree more , 4th, 5th starters, 3b, 2b, cf, the health of pk, thome dye, cq.... i dont see how anyone should expect the experts or those websites from choosing us to finish 1st or 2nd. if the sox r truly going to go with the roster as it stands, might as well trade dye and the older players. we wont win anything this year. go all young

 

 

 

ok #1 makes sense but whats so funny? what, u think the sox r going to finish 1st or have a great team? ur being overly optimistic.

 

what's funny was that was the prediction for last years team. Who finished first.

[elrockinMT]

I will let you know in October how the predictions panned out. I will say that the Sox have too much talent to finish last, but it is getting to be a tighter division for sure. If you base a pennant race finish off how much money you spend (or don't) the Yankmees should be runaway winners every year. But they ain't ...

[Kyyle23]

what's funny was that was the prediction for last years team. Who finished first.

 

That prediciton was almost completely opposite of what happened, not only the White Sox.

[NorthSideSox72]

what's funny was that was the prediction for last years team. Who finished first.

That, plus I also think its funny that these predictions are being made now, and by a blog whose perspective is skewed.

 

[Balta1701]

If they get Abreu, their young hitters play as well as they are capable/projected and the starting pitching holds up, they could definitely threaten for the Wild Card. But lots of things have to fall into place and break the right way for this to transpire.

Bobby Abreu would be really, really rough for the Reds. That'd give them Bruce, Votto, and Abreu all coming up from the left hand side. Their only bat threats from the right hand side would be Phillips and Hernandez. That's the kind of team that you can destroy with an average LOOGY or two.

 

They really need a guy like Dye to balance the 2 lefties.

[Steve9347]

Who cares?

[Dick Allen]

Bobby Abreu would be really, really rough for the Reds. That'd give them Bruce, Votto, and Abreu all coming up from the left hand side. Their only bat threats from the right hand side would be Phillips and Hernandez. That's the kind of team that you can destroy with an average LOOGY or two.

 

They really need a guy like Dye to balance the 2 lefties.

Abreu hits lefties pretty decently. He loses a little bit of power but has a nice average and OBP.

[MexSoxFan#1]

I'm very iffy on the team we have right now but you never know,everyone thought last year that Det and Clev were gonna fight till the end for the Central and the Sox and Twins wouldn't be anywhere near the top of the division,so there you go...Thats why baseball rocks,it dont mean nothing on paper.

[Balta1701]

Abreu hits lefties pretty decently. He loses a little bit of power but has a nice average and OBP.

For last year's splits, yes. Every other year before last one, his performance against lefties has been 150-250 points of OPS lower against lefties than against righties. In 2007 he put up a .678 OPS against lefties. 2008 was the anomaly in his L/R splits. Sometimes you do get those things with a small sample size (See: Thome against lefties in 2008).

[scenario]

what's funny was that was the prediction for last years team. Who finished first.

 

I think its hilarious that their system ran 100 simulations to try and 'scientifically' predict who would win the division and showed...

 

Cleveland winning 54 times,

Detroit winning 42 times,

Kansas City twice,

Minnesota only one time....

And the Sox winning zero times

 

LOL

 

 

Note to the authors....

Helloooooooo.... your prediction model SUCKS.

Burn your spreadsheets, take a baseball bat to your computer, and start over.

 

 

[bmags]

That, plus I also think its funny that these predictions are being made now, and by a blog whose perspective is skewed.

 

Well, I'm sure the people whom it was intended for didn't even bother looking at the other inferior divisions

[MO2005]

O.k. lets be serious here. Do you blame anyone for picking this team to be last in our division? The answer no..We have NOT made our team better than last year. All we are doing is taking our over the hill players and mixing them with inexperienced youth. We have 3 starters and question marks on 4 and 5. Our defense is now worse than it was last year, infield in particular. Crede vs. Fields/Betemit, Getz vs. Ramirez at 2nd, and Cabrera vs. Ramirez at shortstop. In all 3 scenarios I would take last year over this and so would the majority. I'm not sure how Ramirez will do at short and last year we had an experienced guy who has played that position his whole career in Cabrera.

 

Outfield is decent, not great. Anderson will be an upgrade defensively over Swisher, but his bat will hurt us in the lineup. Jerry Owens, in my eyes, will be a wash defensively and his bat will hurt us as well in the lineup. From what I have seen with this guy, he has a hole in his swing, and we all know Greg Walker has problems as a hitting coach. (It is only every year we want him fired on soxtalk)

 

Our bullpen is still promising, but Dotel has been injury prone in the past and we all saw Linebrink go down last year. The only problem I see with our bullpen is outside Thornton, we don't really have a promising left hander in our bullpen and if one of those guys go down in Dotel, Thornton, Linebrink, we will be in big trouble!

 

So we all can agree that pitching and defense win championships, right? Well who the hell would think for a second that this team stands a chance in this division when we have holes in both and can beat teams like the Twins and Indians. The Twins missed the playoffs by one game and their youth is only getting better. The Indians made some moves to tweak their roster and have a Cy Young Winner at the top of their rotation.

 

So to be real, I really don't think the critics will be wrong this time. I want to believe, but I can't because the holes we have are too large. Jerry, Kenny, and Ozzie took the wrong turn on this one and at the end of the season it'll be like we told ya so! Just watch!

[NorthSideSox72]

O.k. lets be serious here. Do you blame anyone for picking this team to be last in our division? The answer no..We have NOT made our team better than last year. All we are doing is taking our over the hill players and mixing them with inexperienced youth. We have 3 starters and question marks on 4 and 5. Our defense is now worse than it was last year, infield in particular. Crede vs. Fields/Betemit, Getz vs. Ramirez at 2nd, and Cabrera vs. Ramirez at shortstop. In all 3 scenarios I would take last year over this and so would the majority. I'm not sure how Ramirez will do at short and last year we had an experienced guy who has played that position his whole career in Cabrera.

 

Outfield is decent, not great. Anderson will be an upgrade defensively over Swisher, but his bat will hurt us in the lineup. Jerry Owens, in my eyes, will be a wash defensively and his bat will hurt us as well in the lineup. From what I have seen with this guy, he has a hole in his swing, and we all know Greg Walker has problems as a hitting coach. (It is only every year we want him fired on soxtalk)

 

Our bullpen is still promising, but Dotel has been injury prone in the past and we all saw Linebrink go down last year. The only problem I see with our bullpen is outside Thornton, we don't really have a promising left hander in our bullpen and if one of those guys go down in Dotel, Thornton, Linebrink, we will be in big trouble!

 

So we all can agree that pitching and defense win championships, right? Well who the hell would think for a second that this team stands a chance in this division when we have holes in both and can beat teams like the Twins and Indians. The Twins missed the playoffs by one game and their youth is only getting better. The Indians made some moves to tweak their roster and have a Cy Young Winner at the top of their rotation.

 

So to be real, I really don't think the critics will be wrong this time. I want to believe, but I can't because the holes we have are too large. Jerry, Kenny, and Ozzie took the wrong turn on this one and at the end of the season it'll be like we told ya so! Just watch!

If no other roster changes are made, then I generally agree, its probably a .500 team (though you never know for sure). But its still far too early to really get a feel. March 31st, we'll have a better picture.

 

[caulfield12]

80-84 wins if almost everything goes right and nothing major goes wrong, which is totally improbable.

[WCSox]

O.k. lets be serious here. Do you blame anyone for picking this team to be last in our division?

 

Are you kidding? The Sox won 89 games last year, despite losing their stud setup man and the would-be AL MVP. And they're supposed to drop to 72 wins? Based on what? I don't expect them to win the division again, but I see absolutely zero evidence for last place and 8 fewer wins than the Royals. It's difficult to make a prediction like this in mid-January, but I don't see how the Sox are going to fall that far below .500. I'll say 80-82 at this point.

 

And speaking of ridiculous, LOL at this Yankee fanboy for predicing 102 wins for HIS team.

Edited January 14, 2009 by WCSox

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

As of January 14, 2009, it is us and the Royals to battle it out for the basement.

 

As of April 1st, well I'd have to wait and see.

[Bubba Philips]

Are you kidding? The Sox won 89 games last year, despite losing their stud setup man and the would-be AL MVP. And they're supposed to drop to 72 wins? Based on what? I don't expect them to win the division again, but I see absolutely zero evidence for last place and 8 fewer wins than the Royals. It's difficult to make a prediction like this in mid-January, but I don't see how the Sox are going to fall that far below .500. I'll say 80-82 at this point.

 

And speaking of ridiculous, LOL at this Yankee fanboy for predicing 102 wins for HIS team.

I just hope for the best but if any of us would put all the variables into a computer we would end up with too many question marks. Start at first will Konerko have high numbers like in August and september Konerko or dreadful like in April, May, June and July. We have a lot of choices or question marks at second can getz, lillibridge or even Betemit handle 2nd> Can Alexei be a better shortstop than OC. Can Fields field well enough to handle 3rd will he have another year like o7 at the plate. Or will Betemit handle the position better or will their be a lot of platooning.. Will the platooning work.. I believe that TCQ will have another great year if Dye is not traded will he continue to handle the field and his bat. I love the idea of Anderson although a little better at the plate he still needs some improvement.. We have Aj at the plate he's pretty consitstent with the bat but I still get frightened when a runner gets on base knowing he has a very poor chance of throwing them out. I like the idea of flowers but they said he's not too good defensively.. Pitching we are going to throw two rookies into the 4th and fifth spots in the rotation while giving up a pitcher who we knew would give us at least 200 innings every year. Our relievers and closer had some injury problems last year and to cite one pitcher he is either lights out or horrible. I myself would be happy with a 500 season I think there is some talent developing that may need some on the field training to be fully appreciated.. Beckham, Flowers Marquez, Richard, Lillibridge, Fields, Betemit, Nunez all could be great ball players but their star might not shine this year. We got 4 shining stars last year Danks, Floyd, Alexei and TCQ so maybe 4 shining new stars will appear. I hope so.

[witesoxfan]

what move did Detroit make that makes them a better team than the Sox? They traded for a mediocre starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson, traded for a so-so catcher, and signed one of the worst offensive shortstops in the game to platoon with a utility guy at SS? And they are suddenly going to finish ahead of the Sox? Consider me confused on that part alone.

[caulfield12]

what move did Detroit make that makes them a better team than the Sox? They traded for a mediocre starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson, traded for a so-so catcher, and signed one of the worst offensive shortstops in the game to platoon with a utility guy at SS? And they are suddenly going to finish ahead of the Sox? Consider me confused on that part alone.

 

If Bonderman and/or Dontrelle Willis make the 2009 AL All-Star team, then I'll start to get worried.

 

Who is going to be their closer? Dolsi? Rodney? Zumaya, with one pitch, multiple injuries and possibly psychotic behavior?

[WCSox]

what move did Detroit make that makes them a better team than the Sox? They traded for a mediocre starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson, traded for a so-so catcher, and signed one of the worst offensive shortstops in the game to platoon with a utility guy at SS? And they are suddenly going to finish ahead of the Sox? Consider me confused on that part alone.

 

Agreed, and I'll add that the Central doesn't look very competitive at all right now.

 

[Texsox]

To me the only interesting conversation, and certainly the only worthwhile one, is what criteria, or what code was written and run, that produced these results. Someone set the parameters, what were they? What values were placed on health, starting pitching, defense, schedule, etc. etc. etc.

[sircaffey]

what move did Detroit make that makes them a better team than the Sox? They traded for a mediocre starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson, traded for a so-so catcher, and signed one of the worst offensive shortstops in the game to platoon with a utility guy at SS? And they are suddenly going to finish ahead of the Sox? Consider me confused on that part alone.

 

They did have a lot of down seasons and injuries last year.

[witesoxfan]

They did have a lot of down seasons and injuries last year.

 

that's the thing, I don't see a lot of them. Sheffield and Rogers were both old, so bad seasons makes sense (though possibly not to the level that they had), Nate Robertson just isn't very good (though again, maybe not to a 6+ ERA...he's not much better than a 5 ERA pitcher though), their bullpen isn't that talented and they cut Aquilino Lopez who was one of their best relievers last year, and outside of really Guillen and Bonderman, injuries didn't strike them that badly (Granderson missed like 2-3 weeks at the beginning of the season but was healthy the rest of the season). I just don't think they are a very good team at all and without another move or so, I'd be surprised if they finished out of last place.

 

That said, I'd agree with whoever said that the Central won't be very competitive. I see the Twins and Indians as the favorites and I could honestly see any team winning it with just a couple breaks.

[Balta1701]

Agreed, and I'll add that the Central doesn't look very competitive at all right now.

I fully expect that at least one team will be surprisingly good, maybe more than that. That's how it always is in baseball.