Garland thread continues in Diamond Club

[Ozzie Ball]

LOL. You say that like it's nothing. Does a CF have to be a combination of prime Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. to impress people around here? The guy is young, athletic, has plus power/speed/defense (many believe Young should've won a GG last year). And most importantly room to grow. I'd gladly live with the K's and low OBP considering all the other things he provides. In the last three years, we've trotted out Brian Anderson, Rob Mackowiak, Darin Erstad, Jerry Owens, Luis Terrero, Nick Swisher, and a 7-8 years past his prime Griffey Jr. to CF. And we've got people harpin' on Young's K rates in a futile attempt to make the trade not look as bad? Amazing.

His defense really isn't that good, for his career his UZR is -1.8 and last season it was +1 which ranked him 13th among CF's with at least 500 innings of play, (Carlos Gomez led all centre fielders at +17). That being said he was still more deserving of the gold glove than Nate McClouth was, McClouth had a UZR of -15.3 last season ranking him dead last among centre fielders, I believe he was also a -30 going by John Dewans +/- system surely making him one of the worst GG winners of all time.

 

As for the second bold point Nick Swisher is a much better player than Young right now, he was just very unlucky last season, his line drive % stayed at a reasonable 19.3% but his BABIP plummeted 55 points and was 50 points lower than league average, that's not just unlucky, that's catastrophically unlucky. Nick's going to bounce back next season (given the appropriate amount of playing time) to post his usual .850 OPS and show Kenny just how bad that trade was. I'd take him back here as our centre fielder in a second.

[santo=dorf]

How many Sox games do you watch across the pond?

 

[ptatc]

Which sounds better than a lot of what we have now.

 

not really. I think BA could come close to that, plus we got Javy who was a good starting pitcher for us. Then we turned him into the prospects from Atlanta and I think flowers is going to turn into a very good hitter. He might be a DH but he will hit and have a good OBP unlike the others we're discussing.

 

So, personally I like the Javy scenario better than the Young scenario.

 

[ptatc]

He's 25 and has barely two years of service time in the bigs. His cons are well known. There's plenty of time for him to (even if he never becomes good) improve in areas where he can be considered below average. Even if he doesn't improve, he's 10 times better than anything we've trotted out there the last three years.

 

 

 

 

LOL. You say that like it's nothing. Does a CF have to be a combination of prime Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. to impress people around here? The guy is young, athletic, has plus power/speed/defense (many believe Young should've won a GG last year). And most importantly room to grow. I'd gladly live with the K's and low OBP considering all the other things he provides. In the last three years, we've trotted out Brian Anderson, Rob Mackowiak, Darin Erstad, Jerry Owens, Luis Terrero, Nick Swisher, and a 7-8 years past his prime Griffey Jr. to CF. And we've got people harpin' on Young's K rates in a futile attempt to make the trade not look as bad? Amazing.

 

it's not nothing but it's nothing special either. I think BA could play as good defense with 20 some homers given the same scenario which isn't quite as good but not much off either. I would rather have the good starting pitcher (Javy) and the not quite as good BA than Young who isn't special.

 

This scenario improves even more with acquisition of Flowers et al. from Atlanta. I think Flowers will turn into special hitter. He may be a DH, his defense has yet to be determined but I think he will hit.

 

So as I said in another response the I think the Javy scenario is better than the Young scenario. Good pitching always is better than good hitting. You always get the good pitcher unless it's a special hitter. That is why trading Young was a good deal.

[WCSox]

not really. I think BA could come close to that, plus we got Javy who was a good starting pitcher for us. Then we turned him into the prospects from Atlanta and I think flowers is going to turn into a very good hitter. He might be a DH but he will hit and have a good OBP unlike the others we're discussing.

 

So, personally I like the Javy scenario better than the Young scenario.

 

As much as Javy (deservedly) gets pissed on here, he helped the Sox win quite a few games and became a valuable part of the rotation when Freddy fizzled out and Contreras suffered a number of injuries.

 

[Ozzie Ball]

How many Sox games do you watch across the pond?

I have mlb.tv so quite a lot, I probably saw about 100 live games last season and another 20-30 on archive.

[sircaffey]

His defense really isn't that good, for his career his UZR is -1.8 and last season it was +1 which ranked him 13th among CF's with at least 500 innings of play, (Carlos Gomez led all centre fielders at +17). That being said he was still more deserving of the gold glove than Nate McClouth was, McClouth had a UZR of -15.3 last season ranking him dead last among centre fielders, I believe he was also a -30 going by John Dewans +/- system surely making him one of the worst GG winners of all time.

 

As for the second bold point Nick Swisher is a much better player than Young right now, he was just very unlucky last season, his line drive % stayed at a reasonable 19.3% but his BABIP plummeted 55 points and was 50 points lower than league average, that's not just unlucky, that's catastrophically unlucky. Nick's going to bounce back next season (given the appropriate amount of playing time) to post his usual .850 OPS and show Kenny just how bad that trade was. I'd take him back here as our centre fielder in a second.

 

Chris Young's +/- for 2008 was +7 (enhanced +23) good enough for 3rd of all CF. This despite lacking in the arm department where he ranks in the bottom half. He can track 'em down with the best of them. Nick Swisher on the other hand, is Mackowiak-like in CF.

[santo=dorf]

Chris Young's +/- for 2008 was +7 (enhanced +23) good enough for 3rd of all CF. This despite lacking in the arm department where he ranks in the bottom half. He can track 'em down with the best of them. Nick Swisher on the other hand, is Mackowiak-like in CF.

Obviously Chris Young completely forgot how to play CF. Same with Grady Sizemore.

 

Swisher sucked last year. PERIOD.

 

Why is it "his BA was low because his BABIP was low," and not "his BABIP was low because his BA was low." Swisher does have control over his batting average, it is not completely random. His approach at the plate sucked. If it's so impossibly unlucky for Swisher to have the season he did last year, how was it Konerko put up a better line despite having a higher LD% and LOWER BABIP???

 

 

[greg775]

I wonder why KW doesn't sign Jon for a year or two.

[Kalapse]

I wonder why KW doesn't sign Jon for a year or two.

Probably because Jon Garland isn't ready to settle for a year or two or give up on his dream of $13M a year. It's a 2 way street.

[bmags]

Probably because Jon Garland isn't ready to settle for a year or two or give up on his dream of $13M a year. It's a 2 way street.

 

Is there a pitcher that will sign that gives Garland a better clue what he is worth?

[Kalapse]

Is there a pitcher that will sign that gives Garland a better clue what he is worth?

Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf. Derek Lowe sure as hell didn't help matters when he signed that giant deal, I'm sure it got Garland's hopes up being a 29 year old, innings eating sinkerballer and all. He's basically a younger, much lesser version of Derek Lowe.

[southsider2k5]

Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf. Derek Lowe sure as hell didn't help matters when he signed that giant deal, I'm sure it got Garland's hopes up being a 29 year old, innings eating sinkerballer and all. He's basically a younger, much lesser version of Derek Lowe.

 

So out of curiousity, what do you think Jon signs for in terms of dollars and/or years?

[caulfield12]

I'm going to say 2 years, $13-16 million.

 

I can't imagine the top of the guaranteed market for Ben Sheets is 2/$18 and that Garland will get MORE.

 

Compare Sheets and Burnett and most comparisons career-wise come out in favor of Sheets, and yet he's been relegating to begging status now.

[bmags]

Yeah. I think it's fair to say there were a small number of teams willing to pay a fair price in compared to last year for the top free agents this year. But it does not seem like these mid-level free agents will see the same type of demand. Much like how an expiring contract can be as attractive as a superstar in the NBA, it seems like young pitchers and hitters are going to get a shot this year.

[Ozzie Ball]

Why is it "his BA was low because his BABIP was low," and not "his BABIP was low because his BA was low." Swisher does have control over his batting average, it is not completely random. His approach at the plate sucked. If it's so impossibly unlucky for Swisher to have the season he did last year, how was it Konerko put up a better line despite having a higher LD% and LOWER BABIP???

All his other percentages (LD%, FB%, GB%, IF%) all stayed around his career average yet his BABIP dropped 55 points, that's something a hitter can't control hence the "his BA was low because his BABIP was low."

[santo=dorf]

All his other percentages (LD%, FB%, GB%, IF%) all stayed around his career average yet his BABIP dropped 55 points, that's something a hitter can't control hence the "his BA was low because his BABIP was low."

Ever think that defenses adjusted to him? Is it unlucky when Jim Thome or David Ortiz to groundout to the second baseman in short left field when the shift is on?

 

Why is a soft line drive to the second baseman considered the same as a rocket hit down the line? If people can take the time to record the number of flyballs, groundballs, and line drives, why can't they make note of soft line drives vs. rockets?

[witesoxfan]

Ever think that defenses adjusted to him? Is it unlucky when Jim Thome or David Ortiz to groundout to the second baseman in short left field when the shift is on?

 

Why is a soft line drive to the second baseman considered the same as a rocket hit down the line? If people can take the time to record the number of flyballs, groundballs, and line drives, why can't they make note of soft line drives vs. rockets?

 

because a soft line drive is going to fall in quite a bit too. And at some point, what is a soft line drive and what is a hard line drive?

[Dick Allen]

because a soft line drive is going to fall in quite a bit too. And at some point, what is a soft line drive and what is a hard line drive?

Watching Nick Swisher in 2008, he didn't appear any more "unlucky" than any other player. As was pointed out earlier, Konerko, using the same theories, was more "unlucky" than Swisher, still outperformed him, and a lot of people were still calling for Swisher to be Paulie's replacement while he was shown the door. If Swisher is a lock to bounce back, so must be Konerko.

[DBAHO]

Watching Nick Swisher in 2008, he didn't appear any more "unlucky" than any other player. As was pointed out earlier, Konerko, using the same theories, was more "unlucky" than Swisher, still outperformed him, and a lot of people were still calling for Swisher to be Paulie's replacement while he was shown the door. If Swisher is a lock to bounce back, so must be Konerko.

Well Konerko definitely bounced back in the 2nd half of the season at least (and was our best hitter after the ASB), while Swisher after having respectable numbers in mid July went completely downhill.

 

I think the main thing for Paulie is to keep healthy, but he's certainly not the hitter he once was.

 

At least with Swisher you could argue he's not in his 30's yet, so he could be an excellent candidate for a bounce-back season, but I don't think he'll hit above .250 again anytime soon.

[Dick Allen]

Well Konerko definitely bounced back in the 2nd half of the season at least (and was our best hitter after the ASB), while Swisher after having respectable numbers in mid July went completely downhill.

 

I think the main thing for Paulie is to keep healthy, but he's certainly not the hitter he once was.

 

At least with Swisher you could argue he's not in his 30's yet, so he could be an excellent candidate for a bounce-back season, but I don't think he'll hit above .250 again anytime soon.

Even with Konerko's improved second half, his "unlucky" level was higher than Swisher's. Paulie is in his early 30's. He'll be fine in 2009.

[witesoxfan]

Even with Konerko's improved second half, his "unlucky" level was higher than Swisher's. Paulie is in his early 30's. He'll be fine in 2009.

 

I'm actually expecting a huge year from Konerko assuming he can stay healthy.

[Steve9347]

I'm actually expecting a huge year from Konerko assuming he can stay healthy.

As long as a huge year from Pauly is .275, 30, 100, I think you'll be happy.

[DBAHO]

I'm actually expecting a huge year from Konerko assuming he can stay healthy.

That's always been the question with Paulie, with his hip issue and everything.

 

Still he had an .910 OPS in the 2nd half of last season, basically on a huge September with 9 HR's.

 

I don't know if he's a .270 hitter though, something around the .250 mark, very similar to what Thome has put up I think will be the norm going forward.

[MEANS]

I'm interested in seeing if a new PK shows up at ST, he was suppose to be doing a lot of working out this off season, which he never did in the past. Hopefully an in-shape PK will be less prone to injuries.