Our Current Depth Chart

scenario · January 19, 2009

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 19, 2009 -> 02:26 PM)

Colon looked pretty damn good at times last year, im hoping he is in even better shape.

Yep. When he's healthy he can still bring it.

There are a couple of good video clips of games he pitched in last year on whitesox.com.

Against Seattle, he hit 95mph on a couple of pitches.

The key will be keeping him on the field and off the DL.

Edited January 19, 2009 by scenario

SouthsideDon48 · January 19, 2009

Speaking of Beckham...

Lots of people hope he'll be an impact player when he gets called up to the MLB.

My question is: Do people see him being an impact rookie like Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, and Evan Longoria?

Or is he another first round draft pick that we're hopeful on like we were with Joe Borchard and Brian Anderson?

I'm trying to figure out how much of an impact people on this board can see Beckham having, and if people think he might be of the same caliber of Braun/Bruce/Longoria, then that'd be eff-ing sweet.

DaTank · January 19, 2009

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Jan 19, 2009 -> 02:42 PM)

Speaking of Beckham...

Lots of people hope he'll be an impact player when he gets called up to the MLB.

My question is: Do people see him being an impact rookie like Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, and Evan Longoria?

Or is he another first round draft pick that we're hopeful on like we were with Joe Borchard and Brian Anderson?

I'm trying to figure out how much of an impact people on this board can see Beckham having, and if people think he might be of the same caliber of Braun/Bruce/Longoria, then that'd be eff-ing sweet.

I can see him having a Longoria type of impact in his first full year.

greg775 · January 20, 2009

Thanks for the Colon optimism.

Why don't the Sox people get hold of him now and start running him.

He can't be a fatso and win.

Swingandalongonetoleft · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Karko's Throat Skin @ Jan 19, 2009 -> 03:04 PM)

With all the chicken littles around here...can someone tell me how we have gotten worse?

We lost Swisher, Vazquez, Crede, Uribe, Griffey....I have no doubt that Owens/Anderson, Fields, Getz, and Colon/Marquez can match or damn near match what those players offered to this team last year. I also expect Konerko to come back very strong, as is his MO.

While I don't think this is a 90 win team, I do believe it is a 84-86 win team and a competitor in the division.

Yousa sellin this here division short. Down years happen, 2008 was just that. 84 wins and competing? What is this, NL West?

IMO Swisher would have been a valuable part of this team going into the future. Dislike him as I may, Javy was the 4/5 starter that any club wants, you just sit his ass when there is a game of worth to be played. These guys have been replaced by Yankee scrap, and some Braves prospects that are promising- but not in 2009 they aren't, oh and Colon. Betemit v. Uribe- f***, f***. I hate that Swisher trade so much. If the Sox were so desperate to lose him, I'd rather straight up cut the guy and pay his s*** than have those clowns we recieved for him sit here and taunt me from the roster. I never liked Betemit then, and I like him even less now that he was part of a deal that took Nicholas outta here and essentially replaced Juan Uribe. I wish him no good, I hope he hits .000 in spring training and is banished from the game, or to the Winston Salem Phallus. Crede, made no impact on the team aside from a strong first 4 weeks, and while Griffey hit a hell of a lot of doubles and I wished him back, his production could probably be replaced for less money. The question mark of a signing Dayen, and the promising crop harvested from Atlanta are great, but we may as well have traded Swisher for an upper deck seat for me in new Yankee Stadium. Or at least free parking... Guys drafted by the Yanks are about as interesting to me as a Chicago Tribune I read 3 days ago.

I hope I'm wrong, and I don't pretend to sit here and study every aspect of team X's farm clubs, but if there was anything of worth in a NY minor league affilate, would they be tossing green all over the place?

Why Betemit? Why not just nothing, or a cup of dirt from old Yankee stadium?

Jimbo's Drinker · January 20, 2009

I think the Sox will put him in shape. I also think this is Bartolo's last chance to keep from fading into retirement.

GREEDY · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 03:08 AM)

but we may as well have traded Swisher for an upper deck seat for me in new Yankee Stadium. Or at least free parking...

Why Betemit? Why not just nothing, or a cup of dirt from old Yankee stadium?

I am a Swisher fan, but when you see what free agent corner outfielders signing for, it makes me wonder how Kenny got anything back for Nick. Swisher is owed around 27 million dollars.

caulfield12 · January 20, 2009

The recent talk is Dunn's contract might go lower than Swisher's, and Nick's is guaranteed at that salary for longer.

09:$5.3M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$9M,

12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)

cot's baseball contracts

2008 Gerrit Cole RHP Orange (Calif.) Lutheran H.S. 28

2007 Andrew Brackman RHP North Carolina State 30

2006 Ian Kennedy RHP Southern California 21

2005 Carl Henry SS Putnam City HS (OK) 17

2004 Philip Hughes RHP Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA 23

2003 Eric Duncan 3B Seton Hall Prep (NJ) 27

2001 John-Ford Griffin OF Florida State U 23

2000 David Parrish C Yorba Linda, CA 28

1999 David Walling RHP U. of Arkansas 27

1998 Andrew Brown OF Richmond, IN 24

1997 *Tyrell Godwin OF Elizabethtown, NC 24

However, the Yankees have drafted Eric Milton, Jeter and Carl Everett, to name a few. The big bust was Brien Taylor at #1. Look where they are drafting, though.

What do you expect?

On the other hand, they've been able to develop Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Alphonso Soriano, Matsui, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Contreras, Chien Ming Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, Bernie Williams, etc.

Their farm system and international talent pool has been huge....I guess Hideki Irabu, Contreras and Kei Igawa are among the biggest disasters.

What have the White Sox produced in the last ten years?

Rowand

Crede

(Carlos Lee, Durham and Ordonez don't count anymore)

Buehrle

Frank Francisco (that's a major exaggeration to credit us, we had him less than a year I think)

Chris B. Young

Garland (once again, the Cubs drafted him)

Brandon McCarthy

Ryan Sweeney

Miguel Olivo

Jeremy Reed

Josh Fields

Chris Singleton (another big stretch)

I'm really struggling to name any more from the past decade that had a huge impact. You can expand a little to Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch maybe...Willie Harris, he was Baltimore property.

Edited January 20, 2009 by caulfield12

scenario · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 07:29 AM)

What have the White Sox produced in the last ten years?

Rowand

Crede

(Carlos Lee, Durham and Ordonez don't count anymore)

Buehrle

Frank Francisco (that's a major exaggeration to credit us, we had him less than a year I think)

Chris B. Young

Garland (once again, the Cubs drafted him)

Brandon McCarthy

Ryan Sweeney

Miguel Olivo

Jeremy Reed

Josh Fields

Chris Singleton (another big stretch)

I'm really struggling to name any more from the past decade that had a huge impact. You can expand a little to Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch maybe...Willie Harris, he was Baltimore property.

I vote for Chris Carter. The kid hasn't even sniffed AA yet... and look what a huge positive impact he has had on our ballclub. Not shabby for a 15th round draft pick.

Greg Hibbard · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Karko's Throat Skin @ Jan 19, 2009 -> 04:04 PM)

With all the chicken littles around here...can someone tell me how we have gotten worse?

We lost Swisher, Vazquez, Crede, Uribe, Griffey....I have no doubt that Owens/Anderson, Fields, Getz, and Colon/Marquez can match or damn near match what those players offered to this team last year. I also expect Konerko to come back very strong, as is his MO.

While I don't think this is a 90 win team, I do believe it is a 84-86 win team and a competitor in the division.

Because just like after 2000 heading into 2001, we have at least four young players who had absolutely off-the-charts career years in terms of expectations vs. results. All are young and thus, prone to variance much more than vets. I don't care if you think Quentin and Ramirez and Danks and Floyd are all the real deal, and think are all capable of doing what they did in 2008 in 2009, the likelihood of all four of them having years that good again is just infinitessemily small given what we've seen in 110 years of the modern era of baseball. What's likely is that 2 or 3 of the four will have comparable years - and 1 or 2 of them will have mediocre to bad years in comparison, or there will be an injury.

Do I expect Konerko to hit .240/25 again? No, but I don't expect much more from him than .265/32, which is not going to make too much of a difference, honestly.

Therefore, I would have expected KW to factor in the fact that all things considered, the stars sort of aligned for the White Sox in terms getting great years unexpectedly - and they won the division by the hair of their chinny chin chin - and didn't even win 90 games given all those great years. Even if I call Vazquez vs. Colon a wash, and Swisher vs. Anderson a wash (which it's clearly not - Anderson as-is is a significant offensive downgrade), where have the White Sox vastly improved? They haven't, and they've certainly lost major league depth, especially in the infield and centerfield.

Edited January 20, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

ILMOU · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 12:15 PM)

All are young and thus, prone to variance much more than vets.

I don't care if you think Quentin and Ramirez and Danks and Floyd are all the real deal, and think are all capable of doing what they did in 2008 in 2009, the likelihood of all four of them having years that good again is just infinitessemily small given what we've seen in 110 years of the modern era of baseball.

Yes, and that variance could be Improvement.

These players are 23, 26, 27 and 26 entering the season. I hate it when someone says "well, he had a career year" as I see so many times around here in projecting the future of these guys. We don't KNOW if it's a "career year" until they've had a bit of a "career"do we?

There are significant possibilities that each of these guys will be better in '09 and onward. Well, probably not better for Q, other than a full season of health. And I don't like Danks in the WBC, but otherwise I'm optimistic. I don't see a reason for such pessimism, really. On the whole, our pitching staff will be better than that of Cleveland, who will be our main competition, IMO. You talk about infinitesimal odds? That would be Cliff Lee equaling his '08 season.

I'm surprised you haven't died of shock already, given how the Sox have outperformed predictions so often.

caulfield12 · January 20, 2009

The main reason for hope is that no team in the AL Central is clearly better today than they were at the end of the 2008 season...someone might argue CLE, with DeRosa and Wood, but CLE is without Westbrook, Franklin Gutierrez and it looks like Travis Hafner's career might be coming to an end. DeRosa will be hard pressed to repeat his career year of 2008 in a transition to the more challenging AL, and he's ready for a decline...while Wood could go to the DL just about any day of the season. Minnesota has done nothing, as is their custom, standing pat...adding Eric Gagne to replace Jesse Crain/Guerrier might actually cost them 3-5 games instead of adding them to the win column.

Greg Hibbard · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 02:50 PM)

I'm surprised you haven't died of shock already, given how the Sox have outperformed predictions so often.

Please - spare me the melodramatics.

The fact of the matter is that during the 2000 season, Carlos Lee, Mags Ordonez, Jim Parque, Mike Sirotka and James Baldwin all had career years. Four of those six guys were young and unproven. The next two years (after hitting .301 as a 24 year old in 2000), CLee had years of .264 and .269 respectively - and eventually grew into a superstar. Parque was never the same pitcher again, Sirotka was injured and never made it back to the big leagues. Would you have guessed all of those things would have happened after 2000? Of course not. But it was likely one or two of those things was going to happen in hindsight, given that all players played way above expectations in 2000.

If your argument is that they had a breakout season and we can expect similar results, here's my counter:

What about Gavin Floyd's peripherals suggest that he's going to be able to sustain success long term? Other than "he won a lot of games despite he peripherals not being very good" - what exactly is your argument for him? He pitched a ton more innings than he ever has before and I'm afraid of dead arm and the fragile psychology that has plagued in every year except the last. I don't see him being quite as bad as he was in philly, but I just can't see him being quite as good given his peripherals and history.

Is it more likely that Quentin is going to be the next Frank Thomas at 25, and continue to hit .300/30/100 for the rest of the peak of his career, or is it more likely that he outperformed even slightly and is overdue for a slump at some point? I think he's the real deal, but I think that real deal can be someone who's .280/27/90 or someone who is .300/30/100. I think it's more likely that he's due for a slump at some point, even a minor one.

After Buehrle pitched 1,000,000 innings in the 2005 season, he immediately followed with a fairly dreadful 2006 season. I agree that Danks in the WBC is a bad, bad, bad idea and I think even if he pitches the same we are expecting a ton from a young pitcher, just as we expected a ton from him last year.

Ramirez is very young, and although I love what I've seen from him, I think penciling him in for the same kind of year is absolutely foolish.

Here's what I think is GOING to happen: Danks will be almost as good, Quentin will be almost as good, Ramirez will be almost as good, and Floyd will not be as good. Our pitching staff, thin as it is, will be even thinner and we'll be in it all year but be just short. I don't see disaster, but I can't see how this team has improved and penciling in those four guys for the same years seems utterly ridiculous.

Edited January 20, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

greg775 · January 20, 2009

Here's what I think is GOING to happen: Danks will be almost as good, Quentin will be almost as good, Ramirez will be almost as good, and Floyd will not be as good. Our pitching staff, thin as it is, will be even thinner and we'll be in it all year but be just short. I don't see disaster, but I can't see how this team has improved and penciling in those four guys for the same years seems utterly ridiculous.

Interesting.

The key then is Konerko and Thome and Dye and AJ to be very good to go with the still developing Lexi and CQ and Getz, Owens; those bullpen Jeckyll-Hydes to get their fricking act together and excel. There will have to be more a contribution from others because you are probably right about Floyd.

We still have a lot of big name everyday lineup baseball players. I'm a little worried about our D. I guess we'll know in spring training if Lexi and Fields will be decent on the left side.

scenario · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 02:33 PM)

What about Gavin Floyd's peripherals suggest that he's going to be able to sustain success long term? Other than "he won a lot of games despite he peripherals not being very good" - what exactly is your argument for him? He pitched a ton more innings than he ever has before and I'm afraid of dead arm and the fragile psychology that has plagued in every year except the last. I don't see him being quite as bad as he was in philly, but I just can't see him being quite as good given his peripherals and history.

I always find it interesting when people try and project a 25 year old pitcher's future based on his 'career-to-date' MLB stats.

caulfield12 · January 20, 2009

We also have the potential to receive contributions from Viciedo, Beckham, Poreda and even Flowers this year...or, at the latest, next.

Fields should put up much better overall offensive numbers than the position gave us last year. Ramirez's numbers SHOULD be plenty better at SS than Cabrera.

Contreras and Colon have the ability to step up as well. There's no reason to believe that, combined with Marquez, those three can't replicate Vazquez's numbers.

There's one more thing...we should have more payroll flexibility and the minor league depth chart to bring in a really good player if we're in at the ASB.

Edited January 20, 2009 by caulfield12

Greg Hibbard · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (scenario @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 03:46 PM)

I always find it interesting when people try and project a 25 year old pitcher's future based on his 'career-to-date' MLB stats.

So we should throw our hands up and say "we have no clue what's going to happen" with any pitcher 25 or under? How is this useful?

Clearly there are some peripherals that are useful to analyze and tend to paint a picture of what's somewhat predictable. I'm not saying it's always correct, but it's certainly useful. Some people think that Floyd's results are because of a somewhat wacky BABIP number and some other things - and I think that's worth noting.

for example

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...orward-or-fluke

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...7&type=full

Edited January 20, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

Greg Hibbard · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 03:46 PM)

We also have the potential to receive contributions from Viciedo, Beckham, Poreda and even Flowers this year...or, at the latest, next.

Fields should put up much better overall offensive numbers than the position gave us last year. Ramirez's numbers SHOULD be plenty better at SS than Cabrera.

Contreras and Colon have the ability to step up as well. There's no reason to believe that, combined with Marquez, those three can't replicate Vazquez's numbers.

There's one more thing...we should have more payroll flexibility and the minor league depth chart to bring in a really good player if we're in at the ASB.

Honestly I have no bloody idea what to expect from Fields offensively. I can't even begin to predict this. We do know that defense will be much, much worse.

I think it's interesting that Contreras, Colon, even Garcia who's not even signed yet, along with Floyd and Danks and the rest of the young dudes - these aren't guys who are in a position to be evaluated strongly either because of injury (Contreras), age (all), conditioning (Garcia and Colon), or lack of a proven track record (all the young guns). The only pitcher who it seems we can project with any sort of confidence is Buehrle, IMO. I can't recall when we've entered a season as an alleged contender with so many question marks from #2 on down.

Baines3 · January 20, 2009

Center Field seems thin to me, of course I have never been a Brian Anderson fan. I would have Josh Fields starting at 3b. Hopefully Colon still has some good pitching left in him.

elrockinMT · January 20, 2009

Depth chart in January and predictions of utter failure and ruin? Must have been sugested by a Cubs fan. I will wait till Ozzie Guillen and Ken Williams tell us who is on the 25 man roster. I will then join in the predictions of gloom and doom...

unless we win of course :lol: :gosox2:

Edited January 20, 2009 by elrockinMT

scenario · January 20, 2009

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 02:53 PM)

So we should throw our hands up and say "we have no clue what's going to happen" with any pitcher 25 or under? How is this useful?

Would evaluating Floyd's pre-2008 MLB stats have given you any clue about how he would play last season? Ditto for Danks.

So... how were they useful?

Edited January 20, 2009 by scenario

caulfield12 · January 21, 2009

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 03:03 PM)

Honestly I have no bloody idea what to expect from Fields offensively. I can't even begin to predict this. We do know that defense will be much, much worse.

I think it's interesting that Contreras, Colon, even Garcia who's not even signed yet, along with Floyd and Danks and the rest of the young dudes - these aren't guys who are in a position to be evaluated strongly either because of injury (Contreras), age (all), conditioning (Garcia and Colon), or lack of a proven track record (all the young guns). The only pitcher who it seems we can project with any sort of confidence is Buehrle, IMO. I can't recall when we've entered a season as an alleged contender with so many question marks from #2 on down.

Well, look at the 2005 season, when we weren't even an alleged contender (I know this is yet further condemnation of the idea of judging a season before spring training starts, as I tried to do in another thread).

1) Nobody knew anything about Iguchi, besides the fact that KW had scouted him through tape and what he got/expected to get in terms of a contract were very divergent....maybe because of K. Matsui's failure with the Mets.

2) Takatsu was already suspected to be a one-trick pony, and nobody had a clue of the emergence of Hermanson (especially), Cotts or Politte.

3) Nobody knew how AJ would do in a "crazy" clubhouse coming off the gossip/innuendo of that SF year.

4) Did El Duque have anything left (similar to concerns about Colon, Contreras and maybe Garcia)

5) Pods was coming off a season when he hit around .240 in the NL

6) We'd lost Valentin, Ordonez and Carlos Lee, three of our best power hitters....we're replacing much less in the line-up this year (Swisher, Cabrera, Uribe/Crede and Griffey)

7) Nobody knew what we could get out of Frank Thomas at that point...

8) Garland and Contreras, especially, had never proven themselves to be "big game" or anything but average MLB pitchers...especially Jose, who would morph/evolve into the best in the game for a period of almost one year

9) Brandon McCarthy was another Sox prospect/suspect with high expectations and no clear idea what he'd produce

10) Jermaine Dye...nobody had an idea what he would do for the next four seasons either, coming off injuries and signing for less with Chicago than he could have gotten elsewhere, he was just seen as a "high reward/low risk" signing, but anyone who predicted MVP numbers consistently, I would like to see that thread/post/message.

Edited January 21, 2009 by caulfield12

Greg Hibbard · January 21, 2009

QUOTE (scenario @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 05:55 PM)

Would evaluating Floyd's pre-2008 MLB stats have given you any clue about how he would play last season? Ditto for Danks.

So... how were they useful?

I don't think saying the approach that _x player_ will be as good because he was good last season has been an accurate indicator of future performance ever.

Look man, I offered up the explanation statistically as to why Gavin Floyd had an anomylously great season.

So far the counterargument has simply said "look man, he was good last year...he'll be good again!" without any analysis whatsoever as to WHY he was good last year or why he'll be good this year.

Again....WHY will he be good this year?

He had a lot of things go his way statistically and given his makeup a regression is almost certain. In the history of baseball, it's been all-but statistically PROVEN that a player cannot veer THAT far off of a stat like BABIP in one season and sustain it. It's just not possible, given what BABIP measures.

Bear in mind that BABIP and his makeup (meaning the pitches he is capable of throwing) has nothing to do with his history in philly or even 07 with the Sox.

Edited January 21, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

Greg Hibbard · January 21, 2009

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 20, 2009 -> 09:37 PM)