White Sox Top 11 Prospects

[False Alarm]

I'll bet that they used defensive metrics in that evaluation, i.e. can he stay at catcher, and that probably dragged him down a lot. But, if it's true that last year was his first year behind the plate, there's another reason why the metrics might miss a useful factor...that he hadn't done it before.

goldstein is not a numbers guy. yes, he works for BP, but if you read his stuff and his chats, he pays little attention to BP's advanced metrics. these rankings are his, and he weighs scouting reports, discussions with scouts, and his own observations quite a bit more heavily than statistics. he was recruited to BP from BA and is kinda the anti-BP in some ways. i guarantee you he's not running any complex formulas or algorithms or anything like that. incidentally, nate silver has done a PECOTA-based projection of prospects for BP the last few years that might be more along the lines of what you're thinking balta. was always kinda interesting to compare em with goldstein's more scouting-based lists. doubt silver'll write those articles this year, though, since he's pretty much abandoned writing about baseball.

 

as for viciedo, it's reasonable to rank him. college draftees who haven't played an inning of pro ball (eg, pedro alvarez) get ranked all the time on these types of lists. i don't really see how viciedo's case is so different. however, i can understand how people'd have doubts about him too. i consider him our #2 prospect, but cuban prospects've been so tough to evaluate over the years that i can't blame someone for putting allen ahead of him.

[Balta1701]

goldstein is not a numbers guy. yes, he works for BP, but if you read his stuff and his chats, he pays little attention to BP's advanced metrics. these rankings are his, and he weighs scouting reports, discussions with scouts, and his own observations quite a bit more heavily than statistics. he was recruited to BP from BA and is kinda the anti-BP in some ways. i guarantee you he's not running any complex formulas or algorithms or anything like that. incidentally, nate silver has done a PECOTA-based projection of prospects for BP the last few years that might be more along the lines of what you're thinking balta. was always kinda interesting to compare em with goldstein's more scouting-based lists. doubt silver'll write those articles this year, though, since he's pretty much abandoned writing about baseball.

In that case, if we're still focusing on Silverio...the question for any particular person doing rankings is going to be...what does he judge that player's age to actually be and how is he weighting that? Pablo Ozuna wound up #8 on BA's lists a few years back because everyone thought he was 2-3 years younger than he actually was. If he's actually seen the kid and thinks he projects highly, then that's one thing. If he's projecting from what he knows and taking the age at face value, that's another.

[False Alarm]

In that case, if we're still focusing on Silverio...the question for any particular person doing rankings is going to be...what does he judge that player's age to actually be and how is he weighting that? Pablo Ozuna wound up #8 on BA's lists a few years back because everyone thought he was 2-3 years younger than he actually was. If he's actually seen the kid and thinks he projects highly, then that's one thing. If he's projecting from what he knows and taking the age at face value, that's another.

i'm guessing he's considering him to be 17--still silverio's officially listed age--until proven otherwise. i can't see a 21-year-old hitting .220 in low rookie ball getting any mention, no matter how good the tools.

[Cubano]

+1

 

Nobody outside of a few select scouts and executives have even seen him in action yet, and all they saw was a workout. We have no idea what he's going to do. All we know is that he tore it up in Cuba and must have some fantastic potential if it cost 10 mil to sign him essentially sight unseen.

 

Actually, I think he did not produce as much as he should have done in his later season in Cuba. I think he had his mind in the USA. Planning this trips take time and give you a lot of stress. If the cuban government catches you, you are reduced to almost nothing.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

goldstein is not a numbers guy. yes, he works for BP, but if you read his stuff and his chats, he pays little attention to BP's advanced metrics. these rankings are his, and he weighs scouting reports, discussions with scouts, and his own observations quite a bit more heavily than statistics. he was recruited to BP from BA and is kinda the anti-BP in some ways. i guarantee you he's not running any complex formulas or algorithms or anything like that. incidentally, nate silver has done a PECOTA-based projection of prospects for BP the last few years that might be more along the lines of what you're thinking balta. was always kinda interesting to compare em with goldstein's more scouting-based lists. doubt silver'll write those articles this year, though, since he's pretty much abandoned writing about baseball.

 

as for viciedo, it's reasonable to rank him. college draftees who haven't played an inning of pro ball (eg, pedro alvarez) get ranked all the time on these types of lists. i don't really see how viciedo's case is so different. however, i can understand how people'd have doubts about him too. i consider him our #2 prospect, but cuban prospects've been so tough to evaluate over the years that i can't blame someone for putting allen ahead of him.

 

 

Back to Viciedo. He received, essentially, a signing bonus bigger than anyone under 21 years old in the history of baseball.

 

Many scouts have said he's a Top 5-10 hitter in ALL OF THE MINORS just based on his hitting ability ("major league ready") alone.

 

He's right now listed as a 3B, which is a more premium position than 1B/LF/DH...or as a a RF, because of his plus arm.

 

So the main negative that any scouting report from his workout details was his being a bit out of shape...which has NEVER happened with a 19 year old before? And it's not like he's a pretty big guy who can be projected at that age to fill out and turn that into muscle, or should he be LeBron James already?

 

That he is listed as a 3 star or outside the top 100 prospects list is a joke. Maybe, just maybe, if everyone wasn't so wrong about Alexei Ramirez, who fared even worse in projections coming into last year, I would give it more serious consideration. But scouts all said he was going to be like Ramon Santiago/Miguel Cairo, some AAAA filler or 25th man type. It turned out he had the quickest bat on the team (Stone noticed this right away) and maybe in the entire AL. How can so many miss that? I mean, the kid's a stick and he almost has Soriano's pop and he can run nearly as well, too.

 

If he was with the Yankees/Mets/Cubs, he would be the most hyped prospect in baseball, just like Juan Uribe's catch would have eclipsed anything Jeter did in the playoffs, even that shovel pass to nail Giambi at the plate, IMO.

Edited February 3, 2009 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

That he is listed as a 3 star or outside the top 100 prospects list is a joke. Maybe, just maybe, if everyone wasn't so wrong about Alexei Ramirez, who fared even worse in projections coming into last year, I would give it more serious consideration. But scouts all said he was going to be like Ramon Santiago/Miguel Cairo, some AAAA filler or 25th man type. It turned out he had the quickest bat on the team (Stone noticed this right away) and maybe in the entire AL. How can so many miss that? I mean, the kid's a stick and he almost has Soriano's pop and he can run nearly as well, too.

 

Agreed. The so-called experts were largely caught with their pants down regarding Lexi. The fact that he strikes out so much less than Soriano, and that he can play a middle infield position, makes him a more valuable player overall, IMO.

 

If Alexei backs up his '08 performance, perhaps JR should rework his deal. I want to keep the Cubans happy, so we can keep the pipeline flowing. This connection might be our best chance to stay competitive with Yanks and BoSox going forward. We're off to a great start.

 

I can't remember being as excited about a prospect as I am about Dayan. Admittedly, there is something enticing about not knowing how good this guy might become. Gotta get to AZ in a few weeks! I'm going to go WAY out on a limb and predict he'll be the first Sox player to have a 50 HR season.

[beautox]

Agreed. The so-called experts were largely caught with their pants down regarding Lexi. The fact that he strikes out so much less than Soriano, and that he can play a middle infield position, makes him a more valuable player overall, IMO.

 

If Alexei backs up his '08 performance, perhaps JR should rework his deal. I want to keep the Cubans happy, so we can keep the pipeline flowing. This connection might be our best chance to stay competitive with Yanks and BoSox going forward. We're off to a great start.

 

I can't remember being as excited about a prospect as I am about Dayan. Admittedly, there is something enticing about not knowing how good this guy might become. Gotta get to AZ in a few weeks! I'm going to go WAY out on a limb and predict he'll be the first Sox player to have a 50 HR season.

 

I Think CQ makes that happen before Dayan gets a chance.

[daa84]

im surprised at alot of the expectations for Viciedo....I guess its hard for me to get excited over a guy who i've never seen before, or have real stats on...especially when there are some doubts surrounding him. I'm much more excited about Beckham and Flowers...specifically Beckham, as i've seen him play probably a dozen times in person over the last 4 years and I think the guy has a chance to be a nomar garciaparra/michael young type ball player

Edited February 3, 2009 by daa84

[Cubano]

I can't remember being as excited about a prospect as I am about Dayan. Admittedly, there is something enticing about not knowing how good this guy might become. Gotta get to AZ in a few weeks! I'm going to go WAY out on a limb and predict he'll be the first Sox player to have a 50 HR season.

 

 

Is MLB stopping its steroids testing?

[ThunderBolt]

In terms of excitement i'd say i'm:

1) Slayer

2) Danks 2

3) Viciedo

4) Allen

There's just so much offensive potential for this team especially, if Fields can get it going again.

[caulfield12]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ak27...o&type=lgns

 

Just thought I'd repost this Viciedo article for those who didn't see it the first time...

Edited February 3, 2009 by caulfield12

[DaTank]

Why does everybody think Allen is too high? He is pretty comparable to a Ryan Howard type player (High K rate, raw power, heritage). I wouldn't be surprised if he does actually become a Howard clone (If he pans out). You guys wouldn't take Ryan Howard on our team?

[Balta1701]

Why does everybody think Allen is too high? He is pretty comparable to a Ryan Howard type player (High K rate, raw power, heritage). I wouldn't be surprised if he does actually become a Howard clone (If he pans out). You guys wouldn't take Ryan Howard on our team?

It's the lack of walks.

[ILMOU]

Is MLB stopping its steroids testing?

 

I hope not. The kid looks "country strong".

 

Cubano, I don't know if you saw my post from yesterday or so, but I was wondering if there was any news on LHP Noel Arguellez. I searched, but couldn't find anything.

 

The Liriano comparison that I saw awhile back had me intrigued.

 

BTW, I love your site.

 

[RockRaines]

In terms of excitement i'd say i'm:

1) Slayer

2) Danks 2

3) Viciedo

4) Allen

There's just so much offensive potential for this team especially, if Fields can get it going again.

I echo those rankings. I really like Danks2 a bunch and I think Slayer outhits almost every reserve player on the Sox right now.

[SoxAce]

Perhaps our new De Los Santos?

 

Nathan Jones, rhp, White Sox

Born: Jan. 28, 1986. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Northern Kentucky, 2007 (5th round). Signed by: Mike Shirley.

Jones has some of the best stuff in the White Sox system but never has been able to find the strike zone, not even with a GPS or a group of Sherpas leading the way. Because of his wildness, Jones worked only 82 innings in three years at NCAA Division II Northern Kentucky, but that didn't deter the White Sox from drafting him in the fifth round in 2007. He has gone just 2-11, 5.72 while splitting time between starting and relieving in pro ball, but Chicago dreams of what he might do if he could add polish to a deadly pair of pitches. He has gained velocity on his fastball as a pro, working in the mid-90s and hitting 99 mph at times last season, and his knee-buckling curveball gets scouts buzzing even more. Hitters fall down trying to escape curves that break over the plate for strikes, though he often has trouble locating his breaking ball. He has no feel for a changeup, so he's probably going to wind up as a reliever in the long run. Scouts don't like his delivery or arm action, and he missed seven weeks during the summer with a strained shoulder. The White Sox will send him back to low Class A as a starter in 2009 to get him as many innings as possible.

 

[RockRaines]

Perhaps our new De Los Santos?

Because he's going to need arm surgery?

[bighurt4life]

Because he's going to need arm surgery?

 

ha

[maggsmaggs]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/radio/audio/bpr_090202.mp3

 

Interview with Poreda, sounds like a real intelligent and likable guy.

[SoxAce]

Love that interview.

 

Even Poreda knows his change-up would mostly predict his future as a starter or BP guy. He's really been working hard to get to where he is. I love this kid.

 

[Cubano]

I hope not. The kid looks "country strong".

 

Cubano, I don't know if you saw my post from yesterday or so, but I was wondering if there was any news on LHP Noel Arguellez. I searched, but couldn't find anything.

 

The Liriano comparison that I saw awhile back had me intrigued.

 

BTW, I love your site.

 

No, I have not heard anything knew. If I do, I will let you know. They are probably stuck in the D.R. waiting for their Dominican papers so Bud Selig can declare them free agents. That is the price to pay for being Cuban I guess.

 

[scenario]

No, I have not heard anything knew. If I do, I will let you know. They are probably stuck in the D.R. waiting for their Dominican papers so Bud Selig can declare them free agents. That is the price to pay for being Cuban I guess.

 

BTW Cubano... great job on your blog.

 

 

[ILMOU]

No, I have not heard anything knew. If I do, I will let you know. They are probably stuck in the D.R. waiting for their Dominican papers so Bud Selig can declare them free agents. That is the price to pay for being Cuban I guess.

 

Thanks. I'll be checking your site.

 

[Jeremy]

It's the lack of walks.

 

60 walks in 130 games isn't too shabby IMO.

[elrockinMT]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8459

 

Are these rating based on whether or not the player is deemed reasy to contribute at the Major league level now or are they just by potential talent? I am surprised that Viciendo in only 3rd.