Here's what I don't understand from KW's perspective

[Greg Hibbard]

Assuming all the major deals are done and we head into Spring training with close to the current roster...

 

Why would an experienced, seasoned GM head into spring training/regular season relying on so many of the same things going right that went _inexplicably_ right last season? It's one thing to praise him for scooping undervalued legit major leaguers and turning them into productive major components on a team. It's quite another to thing they will magically retain what can only be described as peak value year after year after year.

 

Even if we accept the fact that CQ is a fantastic all-around ballplayer, how many individuals are able to his .290/30/100 year after year after year? How many that do break out with a single season like that are pitched much differently in year 2 and regress a bit? Even if we can establish that Gavin Floyd has come around and developed into a solid #3 starter, how do his peripherals suggest anything but a ceiling of 15-17 wins and a slightly above average ERA given his skill set/tools? Is it likely that Ramirez will be able to have a similar season and have as many clutch hits? Is it acceptable to just pencil John Danks in for another 3.32 ERA season - a season that was over 2 runs in ERA better than his previous?

 

Moreover, why are we even considering relying on guys like Contreras (injuries), Richard (little experience), Broadway (wayyyy unproven) as part of a competitive major league rotation? Why is Josh Fields going to work out at third base? Who sees anything of value in Wilson Betimet and why? Why are incomplete and substandard guys like Brian Anderson, who has admittedly been screwed over at times by this organization, still being considered as starting pieces of the puzzle? Why is this team still saddled with effectively 4 dh's, a problem we have wrestled with for going on 6 years?

 

I guess my main question is...where the bleeping hell is our insurance policy? There are so many questions regarding this team that as it appears now the decision making process has been somewhat baffling. From a transparency standpoint, all that's been done is shedding of payroll, and no major pieces have been added. What's especially baffling about this is that KW is setting this team up to be constructed primarily in such a way that he will shoulder 100% of the blame if it does come in at anything less than 80 wins. He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before.

[scenario]

He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before.

 

How is that any different than what most teams (other than the Yankees, RedSox, and Mets) do?

 

For example... how often do the Twins or Tribe go out and sign up big name free agents?

 

They don't. They 'ask AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before'... practically every year.

 

The key to making this work, of course, is the quality of the young guys being called up.

 

-----------------------

 

The only thing that makes me really nervous this year is the pitching situation.

 

With the 4&5 slots up for grabs, we REALLY can't afford to have any regression from the top 3.

 

That's why the starting pitching is KW's biggest gamble this year IMO.

 

I'm not losing any sleep over the offense at all.

 

But the pitching...? I'm pretty anxious to see how guys look in S/T.

 

[Balta1701]

Frankly, I feel like we have a lot better backup plans than we've had in the last 2 years at most of our spots.

[jphat007]

You are speaking as if there are other options that KW can go acquire. There are none. There is no more money. There are no more options. For this year, this was his only course.

[Reddy]

You are speaking as if there are other options that KW can go acquire. There are none. There is no more money. There are no more options. For this year, this was his only course.

i disagree, there were plenty of options at one point or another - and options that were CHEAP. why DIDN'T we trade Dye? In my book, the best thing we could've done was trade him (plus whatever) for a starter and signed a CHEAP ASS Adam Dunn.

[BigSqwert]

Trade Dye to which team? His contract isn't very cheap.

[lostfan]

You guys kill me.

[shipps]

You have to remember that KW's deadline isnt the start of the season. If his young options arent panning out the way he would like he will go get someone.......I would hope.

[mmmmmbeeer]

If every GM had the ability to have as many "sure things" as you seem to expect, the game of baseball would be pretty boring, imo.

 

 

[Kyyle23]

i disagree, there were plenty of options at one point or another - and options that were CHEAP. why DIDN'T we trade Dye? In my book, the best thing we could've done was trade him (plus whatever) for a starter and signed a CHEAP ASS Adam Dunn.

 

You are assuming someone else would take on his contract when they could also explore the CHEAP ASS options on the free agent market

[Greg Hibbard]

If every GM had the ability to have as many "sure things" as you seem to expect, the game of baseball would be pretty boring, imo.

 

This team has fewer "sure things", fewer proven components that have performed consistently over several seasons and are in the middle portion of their career and relatively injury free than any other team since 2000, IMO.

 

As far as pencilling people in, I could go with Buehrle for 14-18 wins, Konerko for .250/25/80, Dye for .280/30/100, and hope the rest of the guys who had great seasons last year don't regress.

 

As for other options, if there weren't any....why give up Vazquez? Why give up 200 innings of vet performance to merely shed payroll? Why jettison Swisher when he value has bottomed out?

[Reddy]

You are assuming someone else would take on his contract when they could also explore the CHEAP ASS options on the free agent market

fair enough, the market is/was saturated w/ corner OF. i guess i'm just really confused in general about how this offseason went down across the board. WHY was Dunn so undesirable? Abreu? All the bigger named guys who havent or JUST recently signed? i'm just amazed how we completely avoided upgrading the starting rotation and are accepting Owens in CF.

[jphat007]

You are assuming someone else would take on his contract when they could also explore the CHEAP ASS options on the free agent market

 

Exactly. It's mind blowing what I'm reading.

 

Time for everyone to go take Econ 101

[jphat007]

fair enough, the market is/was saturated w/ corner OF. i guess i'm just really confused in general about how this offseason went down across the board. WHY was Dunn so undesirable? Abreu? All the bigger named guys who havent or JUST recently signed? i'm just amazed how we completely avoided upgrading the starting rotation and are accepting Owens in CF.

 

Because there is NOOOOOOOOOO MORRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEE MONEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

[Reddy]

Why jettison Swisher when he value has bottomed out?

this is what i disagree with the most.

 

he would NOT have been worse than Owens.

[Greg Hibbard]

Again, if that's the market right now...why are we selling off components without adding big pieces. We have not added significant players yet we have effectively said we're going into next season without replacing Contreras and Vazquez with similarly reliable talent.

[iamshack]

i disagree, there were plenty of options at one point or another - and options that were CHEAP. why DIDN'T we trade Dye? In my book, the best thing we could've done was trade him (plus whatever) for a starter and signed a CHEAP ASS Adam Dunn.

 

Dye was rumored to go to practically every team in the National League at some point. Do you think he didn't TRY to trade him? It's fairly clear to me that it was going to pretty difficult to get anything of value for Dye when there were indeed guys like you mentioned out there on the FA market - Dunn and Abreu, for instance. Do you not think that these teams Kenny was trying to move Dye to didn't realize that?

 

I think Kenny did the best with the situation he was given that can be expected. Obviously we don't know the exact parameters and conditions JR gave him when the offseason began, but it's fairly clear that he was given a mandate to shed some salary. Couple that with his desire to get a bit younger and more athletic, and you see the result.

 

Could other moves have been made, perhaps? Certainly. But all in all, I don't think there were a whole lot of other impact moves available out there that were wise in both the short and long term picture for the organization.

 

It's kind of a shame that we do have so many holes that are sort of riskily being patched-up this season, but I think that is more the rule than the exception in the league this year.

[Reddy]

Because there is NOOOOOOOOOO MORRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEE MONEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

aight.

[Kyyle23]

fair enough, the market is/was saturated w/ corner OF. i guess i'm just really confused in general about how this offseason went down across the board. WHY was Dunn so undesirable? Abreu? All the bigger named guys who havent or JUST recently signed? i'm just amazed how we completely avoided upgrading the starting rotation and are accepting Owens in CF.

 

I think most of these late signees were set on getting X amount of money this offseason, and when it wasnt coming, they all tried to play the "wait for the first domino to fall" game so they could get the contracts they desired. When the first domino never fell, they all have started scrambling for what they could get before the team wallets became empty

[jphat007]

aight.

 

Word. It sucks but thats the way it is. Let's go yell at the banks.

[Reddy]

ps, where did all the money go from dumping Swish, Javy, etc?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think if KW made any mistakes this off season it was underestimating just how far the market for free agents would drop. If he had a chance to do it all over again knowing what he knows now Dye and his salary would be on the Reds and the Sox would have Homer Bailey and the ability to sign Abreu and possibly another free agent. All in all if Reinsdorf and his cohorts said make payroll $100mill. then KW's hands were tied from the very beginning of the off season.

[jphat007]

ps, where did all the money go from dumping Swish, Javy, etc?

 

Raises to Arbitration eligible players and players that were due for a raise, plus to account for the fact that the economy sucks and attendance/revenues will likely be way down this year.

[iamshack]

ps, where did all the money go from dumping Swish, Javy, etc?

 

It was never there to begin with.

 

We have lowered our payroll.

 

We did not keep it constant.

 

So just because it was theoretically budgeted at some point, our budget was reduced this year because of economic conditions. It's staying in your pockets, or it's staying in some employer's coffers who laid off Joe laborer, or it's staying in some big corporation who did not renew their skybox tickets (or won't renew for 2010). That's where it went.

[False Alarm]

honestly, i feel like KW (despite what he says) is thinking of this as a bit of a rebuilding year. i think we'll be reasonably competitive--.500 or so--but our lineup is still pretty one dimensional, most of our sluggers are aging, and our rotation is cause for concern. despite the fact that three extra home games gave us extra revenue last season and the sox raised ticket prices for 2009, he did little to address those issues, instead slashing payroll and acquiring good young talent that's probably not ready just yet.

 

looking at these moves, in our situation, and looking at the money coming off the books over the next year or two, i can conclude only that he's repositioning us to be truly competitive again in 2010 and beyond. i do feel better about the 2009 team than i did about the 2007 team at this time that year, but i remember thinking than there were just too many question marks to comfortably predict success for the sox. i feel somewhat similar now. (no, i didn't feel that way last year. i was a big believer in danks and thought contreras would bounce back.) the difference is that now those questions involve a lot more young guys with potentially bright futures than the guys in 2007, and our minor-league system is improved to boot.

 

so yeah, i think there's a chance everything goes right and we compete for the division--maybe colon'll stay healthy, danks won't suffer the frequent slump or injury for a young pitcher who sees that big a jump in IP, broadway/marquez/poreda/egbert/whoever'll turn in an adequate performance from the #5 spot, jerry owens'll manage a .350 OBP/brian anderson'll break out and establish himself, dye and thome'll maintain their production despite their advanced age, konerko'll bounce back despite a steady decline the past couple of years, and fields/betemit/viciedo and getz'll establish themselves as solid regulars. it's not a great chance, but it's a chance. but even if we don't see most of those things happen and it becomes a bit of a lost year, i think enough youth and talent have been injected into the org that it'll be a fun team to watch, and i think we'll be in real good position to field a contender beyond 2010.