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Here's what I don't understand from KW's perspective


Greg Hibbard

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QUOTE (jphat007 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 10:03 AM)
Raises to Arbitration eligible players and players that were due for a raise, plus to account for the fact that the economy sucks and attendance/revenues will likely be way down this year.

Reinsdorf said he doesn't really expect attendance to drop much because families might be canceling more expensive things like vacations but adding less expensive things for entertainment like a trip to the ball park. He also said the payroll isn't attendance driven as much as it used to be and corporate sponsorship , which will be less this year, pays for much of the salaries in baseball now.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:09 PM)
Reinsdorf said he doesn't really expect attendance to drop much because families might be canceling more expensive things like vacations but adding less expensive things for entertainment like a trip to the ball park. He also said the payroll isn't attendance driven as much as it used to be and corporate sponsorship , which will be less this year, pays for much of the salaries in baseball now.

 

Attendance is just one side of revenue, and I'm sure he is hoping that what he says is the case, but he's not made all that money by not assuming the worst in some spots. Everybody is doing it but the Yanks. It's not just us.

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Danks, CQ and Alexei and the Sophmore jinx? I leave out Floyd cause this is his 3rd year I believe? But, maybe there in a junior jinx? KW apprently thinks going younger is going to translate into a winner. I don't know how one can say for certain this or that wil work-today anyway. We coud have added folks like A-Rod, K-Rod and all the Rods and still end up losing. The Yankmees do. The off season moves are just a crap shoot anyway. I would rather use hindsight to complain and say I said you so in October. I just want the season to start and hopefully it will be a fun year. All I can say is let's just accept that KW did the best he could within the budget he has and hopefully all cylinders will fire up and we make a real run at it. Oh by the way bring Joe Crede back Kenny! :lolhitting :gosoxretro: :headbang

Edited by elrockinMT
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:09 PM)
Reinsdorf said he doesn't really expect attendance to drop much because families might be canceling more expensive things like vacations but adding less expensive things for entertainment like a trip to the ball park. He also said the payroll isn't attendance driven as much as it used to be and corporate sponsorship , which will be less this year, pays for much of the salaries in baseball now.

The Sox lost 2 sponsors. Pontiac and Motorola. In Crains, Brooks said if Motorola continued with their sponsorship 10 people at their company would lose their jobs. Let's just say with benefits and salary, that's $200k a year per employee X 10=$2 million. I have no idea what Pontiac paid, but the White Sox will get some sort of replacement, even if it is less financially. If the Sox draw 2.2 million and increased ticket prices $2.50 a ticket, that's an additional $5.5 million. If the difference between what Pontiac paid and what the new sponsor will pay is $3.5 million (probably much less) its a wash.

 

 

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 12:04 PM)
It was never there to begin with.

 

We have lowered our payroll.

 

We did not keep it constant.

 

So just because it was theoretically budgeted at some point, our budget was reduced this year because of economic conditions. It's staying in your pockets, or it's staying in some employer's coffers who laid off Joe laborer, or it's staying in some big corporation who did not renew their skybox tickets (or won't renew for 2010). That's where it went.

 

I can understand people being sympathetic to economic conditions, but to be fair, revenue was just fine for the White Sox in 2008 and we averaged almost 31,000 fans in attendance, 76% capacity. Since they won the World Series in 2005, The Sox have had over 30,000 seats in the stands 3 straight years (36,000 in 2006) and while they have increased payroll, I would sincerely doubt it more than offsets their increased revenue, especially when you factor in certain aspects such as salaries being paid by other teams.

 

EDIT: just saw the comment about attendance and sponsorships, so I guess that's a good point, but do we really expect the White Sox not to pick up other sponsors somehow?

 

Is it fair to expect a decline in attendance this year? Absolutely, given the economic conditions. A precipitous decline? Hell no. At worst I could see it dipping to 27-28k, 2005 levels.

Edited by Greg Hibbard
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QUOTE (Jimmywins1 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 12:53 PM)
Danks year was completely solid and fluke free, there are pretty much no signs that he should regress. If anything, we should be expecting more out of him in 09.

 

What about dead arm from piling up innings like never before? There's no other explanation for Buehrle's 06 season other than arm fatigue and subsequent loss of velocity/command after pitching 270 innings combined regular season/postseason.

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QUOTE (jphat007 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 11:54 AM)
Because there is NOOOOOOOOOO MORRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEE MONEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

 

Bulls**t you are going to tell me there is no more money! Are you Reinsdorf's accountant, funds holder, money guy? The answer is no..The only source you have is the economy and what the internet tells you. There is money..there always is..it just depends on the owener spending it or not!

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 12:45 PM)
I can understand people being sympathetic to economic conditions, but to be fair, revenue was just fine for the White Sox in 2008 and we averaged almost 31,000 fans in attendance, 76% capacity. Since they won the World Series in 2005, The Sox have had over 30,000 seats in the stands 3 straight years (36,000 in 2006) and while they have increased payroll, I would sincerely doubt it more than offsets their increased revenue, especially when you factor in certain aspects such as salaries being paid by other teams.

 

EDIT: just saw the comment about attendance and sponsorships, so I guess that's a good point, but do we really expect the White Sox not to pick up other sponsors somehow?

 

Is it fair to expect a decline in attendance this year? Absolutely, given the economic conditions. A precipitous decline? Hell no. At worst I could see it dipping to 27-28k, 2005 levels.

 

So that is about a 10% decline, which isn't too far off of what the Sox have cut off of their payroll from last year to this, once extra costs such as the spring training buyout are included.

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QUOTE (MO2005 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:18 PM)
Bulls**t you are going to tell me there is no more money! Are you Reinsdorf's accountant, funds holder, money guy? The answer is no..The only source you have is the economy and what the internet tells you. There is money..there always is..it just depends on the owener spending it or not!

 

Not that you have your mind made up or anything...

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QUOTE (MO2005 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:18 PM)
Bulls**t you are going to tell me there is no more money! Are you Reinsdorf's accountant, funds holder, money guy? The answer is no..The only source you have is the economy and what the internet tells you. There is money..there always is..it just depends on the owener spending it or not!

 

LOLOL. What the f*** is the difference? KW has no more money to acquire players. Bottom line. There is no money in his coffers. Whether JR is hording a bunch of cash or not doesn't make a difference. It's not like we're the little sisters of the poor here. We have a 100 million dollar payroll.

 

There is no money.

 

I edited out some f bombs

Edited by jphat007
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QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:04 PM)
Teams wanted dye this off-season, KW confirmed that much.

Yeah, but then when you see guys like Bobby Abreu settling for 5M for 1 season right now, then it kind of makes it harder to unload JD unfortunately when he's making around 11.5M this season.

 

FWIW, I still think this team can absolutely win the division, the AL Central is wide open this season.

 

But I would like to see the Sox sign a player such as Orlando Hudson is he was available for 1 season at around 5M. That kind of signing could put this tea over the top IMO.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:21 PM)
So that is about a 10% decline, which isn't too far off of what the Sox have cut off of their payroll from last year to this, once extra costs such as the spring training buyout are included.

Spring Training buyout should in no way effect 2009 payroll. If it means the White Sox can't add an Orlando Hudson, I'm sure White Sox fans everywhere would say they should just ride out their obligation to Tucson. They will be making more money in Phoenix.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:21 PM)
So that is about a 10% decline, which isn't too far off of what the Sox have cut off of their payroll from last year to this, once extra costs such as the spring training buyout are included.

The Spring training contracts and Viciedo's contract alone make up around 11-12M for this season don't they?

 

Trading Swish and Javier only saves us around 16M from this season IIRC, and most of the difference there is taken up easily by a raise to Bobby Jenks.

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Vazquez - $11.5M

Hall - $1.75M

Cabrera - $7.5M

Crede - $5.1M

Uribe - $4.5M

Swisher - $3.5M

--------

$33.85M

 

Betemit + $1.3M

Colon + $1M

Dotel + $1M

Dye + $2M

Jenks + $5.01M

Linebrink + $500K

MacDougal + $700K

Pierzynski + $400K

Ramirez + $150K

Thome + $6.33M

Thornton + $450K

Viciedo + $5M

Buyouts + $2.35M

--------

$26.19M

 

$33.85M - $26.19M = $7.66M

 

Is a $7.66M reduction in payroll acceptable considering the current state of the economy, the lost sponsors, a probable drop in attendance, the spring training buyout and the possibility that KW might have a little cash to work with around the trade deadline (something he's said he would like to do from now on)?

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 10:44 AM)
Assuming all the major deals are done and we head into Spring training with close to the current roster...

 

Why would an experienced, seasoned GM head into spring training/regular season relying on so many of the same things going right that went _inexplicably_ right last season? It's one thing to praise him for scooping undervalued legit major leaguers and turning them into productive major components on a team. It's quite another to thing they will magically retain what can only be described as peak value year after year after year.

 

Even if we accept the fact that CQ is a fantastic all-around ballplayer, how many individuals are able to his .290/30/100 year after year after year? How many that do break out with a single season like that are pitched much differently in year 2 and regress a bit? Even if we can establish that Gavin Floyd has come around and developed into a solid #3 starter, how do his peripherals suggest anything but a ceiling of 15-17 wins and a slightly above average ERA given his skill set/tools? Is it likely that Ramirez will be able to have a similar season and have as many clutch hits? Is it acceptable to just pencil John Danks in for another 3.32 ERA season - a season that was over 2 runs in ERA better than his previous?

 

Moreover, why are we even considering relying on guys like Contreras (injuries), Richard (little experience), Broadway (wayyyy unproven) as part of a competitive major league rotation? Why is Josh Fields going to work out at third base? Who sees anything of value in Wilson Betimet and why? Why are incomplete and substandard guys like Brian Anderson, who has admittedly been screwed over at times by this organization, still being considered as starting pieces of the puzzle? Why is this team still saddled with effectively 4 dh's, a problem we have wrestled with for going on 6 years?

 

I guess my main question is...where the bleeping hell is our insurance policy? There are so many questions regarding this team that as it appears now the decision making process has been somewhat baffling. From a transparency standpoint, all that's been done is shedding of payroll, and no major pieces have been added. What's especially baffling about this is that KW is setting this team up to be constructed primarily in such a way that he will shoulder 100% of the blame if it does come in at anything less than 80 wins. He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before.

 

 

Dude I love your post! Finally someone with some guts just to admit the truth! I mean I am tired of people on this saying and stating that Lillibridge is going to do this..or Owens will do this..or Getz/Fields/Nix will do this. I mean I understand people being optimistic, but let's just cut to the chase here and be honest with ourselves. Everything Kenny has done is set up exactly like you said to blame himself at the end of the season. There is way too much pressure on these young guys to perform when we all know we know absolutely squat about these guys other than what they did in the minors.

 

Quentin had ONE good season with us. I would like to say he could duplicate, but you can't really judge a player and say he is a hall of famer/superstar after one good season. I mean how many players in this league have flopped after one good season? Ramirez..same thing! Danks and Floyd had horrible 2007's and rebounded in 2008. Again players with one good season. I know everyone is basing their predictions off of last year and what these players did. There is that possibility that these players may of just had career years. I don't know...but what i do know is that there are too many question marks to even have any confidence in this team this year. I am just a die hard Sox fan disappointed with the direction Kenny has taken since 2005. Prove me wrong, but how can anyone be confident in this team? See what I never understand about Kenny is how he contradicts himself all the time. He wants young guys, then he doesn't..then he does..then he doesn't..This is why are minor league system has sucked now for the longest time because we trade everything away. But now he wants to develop..Make up your mind Kenny!

 

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I didn't actually realise Thome's contract went up that much this season.

 

But I think a 7-8M reduction in this current market is very acceptable.

 

And it's not like KW has traded away our let go of our best players either.

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QUOTE (MO2005 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:35 PM)
Dude I love your post! Finally someone with some guts just to admit the truth! I mean I am tired of people on this saying and stating that Lillibridge is going to do this..or Owens will do this..or Getz/Fields/Nix will do this. I mean I understand people being optimistic, but let's just cut to the chase here and be honest with ourselves. Everything Kenny has done is set up exactly like you said to blame himself at the end of the season. There is way too much pressure on these young guys to perform when we all know we know absolutely squat about these guys other than what they did in the minors.

 

Quentin had ONE good season with us. I would like to say he could duplicate, but you can't really judge a player and say he is a hall of famer/superstar after one good season. I mean how many players in this league have flopped after one good season? Ramirez..same thing! Danks and Floyd had horrible 2007's and rebounded in 2008. Again players with one good season. I know everyone is basing their predictions off of last year and what these players did. There is that possibility that these players may of just had career years. I don't know...but what i do know is that there are too many question marks to even have any confidence in this team this year. I am just a die hard Sox fan disappointed with the direction Kenny has taken since 2005. Prove me wrong, but how can anyone be confident in this team? See what I never understand about Kenny is how he contradicts himself all the time. He wants young guys, then he doesn't..then he does..then he doesn't..This is why are minor league system has sucked now for the longest time because we trade everything away. But now he wants to develop..Make up your mind Kenny!

Well for starters I'm a lot more confident in this team right now than I was this time last season.

 

That should tell you something about the moves KW has made.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:21 PM)
So that is about a 10% decline, which isn't too far off of what the Sox have cut off of their payroll from last year to this, once extra costs such as the spring training buyout are included.

They've cut the payroll by approximately 6%.

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QUOTE (jphat007 @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:27 PM)
LOLOL. What the f*** is the difference? KW has no more money to acquire players. Bottom line. There is no money in his coffers. Whether JR is hording a bunch of cash or not doesn't make a difference. It's not like we're the little sisters of the poor here. We have a 100 million dollar payroll.

 

There is no money.

 

I edited out some f bombs

 

My point exactly Jerry Reinsdorf!

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QUOTE (DBAHO @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:37 PM)
Well for starters I'm a lot more confident in this team right now than I was this time last season.

 

That should tell you something about the moves KW has made.

 

Explain...how are you more confident?

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QUOTE (DBAHO @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 02:37 PM)
Well for starters I'm a lot more confident in this team right now than I was this time last season.

 

That should tell you something about the moves KW has made.

Here's the problem I have, the White Sox made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth last year. Will Quentin and Ramirez be able to maintain their performance levels or improve them? Can you reasonably ask Gavin Floyd to be as good or better than he was last year? Can you do the same with Danks? Can Colon hold up? Clayton Richard and/or Jeff Marquez better be a lot better than they were last year. Is Linebrink going to be the guy he was before his injury or the guy who should be pitching for Home Run Derby after he came back? Will Fields, Lillibridge and/or Owens perform better in the major leagues in 2009 than they did in the minor leagues in 2008? Will Dye, Thome, Konerko and Pierzynski be able to hold off father time one more season? Can you reasonably suspect Detroit to be the total trainwreck they were last year? Can you expect Cleveland to be as bad as they were in the first half last year? One or two no answers to the previous questions spell no playoffs IMO.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 01:32 PM)
Spring Training buyout should in no way effect 2009 payroll. If it means the White Sox can't add an Orlando Hudson, I'm sure White Sox fans everywhere would say they should just ride out their obligation to Tucson. They will be making more money in Phoenix.

 

Why not? Its $5 million coming out of the teams budget. Where else would it come from?

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