Here's what I don't understand from KW's perspective

[Dick Allen]

Why not? Its $5 million coming out of the teams budget. Where else would it come from?

To begin with, there will be some accounting taking place that will make this expense a lot less than $5 million in actual cost. Do you think they don't separate expenses? Do you think if they hire another guy to print tickets at the box office, it will be that much less for player salaries? There are different budgets for different departments. While in theory, that would still mean there is less money to give to the salary budget, this is an expense that can be made up over time. Obviously, there is something that makes it worth it to them to pay the $5 million, and its not going to be at the expense of their baseball team. I am willing to bet if you asked KW and JR about it, they will tell you it has no effect. Spring training expenses will be cut down as well as revenues rising. Forbes says they make as much profit as any team in baseball, and there's really no reason not to believe them, if you believe all of their other numbers.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Dick Allen

[DBAHO]

Explain...how are you more confident?

1 - In 2006 we were coming off a 72-90 season. In 2007, we're coming off a 89-74 season.

2 - In ST last year, it looked for a minute like both BA and JO would be starting in our OF. That won't be happening this season.

3 - John Danks and Gavin Floyd took big steps upwards, and entering 2008 they were big question marks. Danks has put on 15 extra pounds of muscle, and I'm probably more worried about Gavin out of the 2. Still they should put up ERA's around 4 I'm thinking.

4 - We know that we have a stud player in CQ now. When healthy, he's proven over his minor and major league career that he can produce. That's the key for him, to stay healthy.

5 - Entering 2008, I thought Javier Vazquez was our best pitcher, and we were going with 2 unproven young guys in Danks and Floyd. That's not the case this season.

6 - Our bullpen looks to be a plus again, entering 2008 we didn't know how good it was going to be. Adding Poreda to the mix could give the Sox a serious weapon of the pen also.

[Dick Allen]

1 - In 2006 we were coming off a 72-90 season. In 2007, we're coming off a 89-74 season.

2 - In ST last year, it looked for a minute like both BA and JO would be starting in our OF. That won't be happening this season.

3 - John Danks and Gavin Floyd took big steps upwards, and entering 2008 they were big question marks. Danks has put on 15 extra pounds of muscle, and I'm probably more worried about Gavin out of the 2. Still they should put up ERA's around 4 I'm thinking.

4 - We know that we have a stud player in CQ now. When healthy, he's proven over his minor and major league career that he can produce. That's the key for him, to stay healthy.

5 - Entering 2008, I thought Javier Vazquez was our best pitcher, and we were going with 2 unproven young guys in Danks and Floyd. That's not the case this season.

6 - Our bullpen looks to be a plus again, entering 2008 we didn't know how good it was going to be. Adding Poreda to the mix could give the Sox a serious weapon of the pen also.

The team coming into last season didn't appear to have any hope of winning a championship. I personally don't think this team does either, but stranger things have happened.

[DBAHO]

Here's the problem I have, the White Sox made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth last year. Will Quentin and Ramirez be able to maintain their performance levels or improve them? Can you reasonably ask Gavin Floyd to be as good or better than he was last year? Can you do the same with Danks? Can Colon hold up? Clayton Richard and/or Jeff Marquez better be a lot better than they were last year. Is Linebrink going to be the guy he was before his injury or the guy who should be pitching for Home Run Derby after he came back? Will Fields, Lillibridge and/or Owens perform better in the major leagues in 2009 than they did in the minor leagues in 2008? Will Dye, Thome, Konerko and Pierzynski be able to hold off father time one more season? Can you reasonably suspect Detroit to be the total trainwreck they were last year? Can you expect Cleveland to be as bad as they were in the first half last year? One or two no answers to the previous questions spell no playoffs IMO.

I don't know if you can expect Quentin to be as good as he was, but he's not even hit his prime yet, and he should be good for at least 30 HR's IMO.

 

Ramirez probably needs to improve his plate discipline more than anything, so he's a wild-card entering this season.

 

I trust Danks more than Floyd entering this season, but I still think both will be good pitchers for us.

 

Colon just needs to stay healthy. His numbers with Boston when he was last season were actually pretty decent.

 

Fields should be 100% healthy and his defense improved entering this season. More worried about his K rate than anything.

 

I don't see Detroit winning the division the way their pitching is currently set-up. Jackson will help, but they need Bonderman and Verlander to be at their best to win the division and I don't see that happening.

 

Cleveland is counting on Hafner to rebound and Lee to produce another fantastic season. Don't know if either can happen.

 

Minnesota is once again the team I'm most worried about. They'll be around the mark again.

[DBAHO]

The team coming into last season didn't appear to have any hope of winning a championship. I personally don't think this team does either, but stranger things have happened.

And the team in 2005 certainly didn't either.

 

That's why all of these predictions before the season etc. mean absolutely nothing.

 

Who knows how the likes of Getz etc. if they get the chance are going to do. But it'll be fun to find out nonetheless.

[elrockinMT]

Danks year was completely solid and fluke free, there are pretty much no signs that he should regress. If anything, we should be expecting more out of him in 09.

 

 

I sure think John has a high ceiling

[southsider2k5]

To begin with, there will be some accounting taking place that will make this expense a lot less than $5 million in actual cost. Do you think they don't separate expenses? Do you think if they hire another guy to print tickets at the box office, it will be that much less for player salaries? There are different budgets for different departments. While in theory, that would still mean there is less money to give to the salary budget, this is an expense that can be made up over time. Obviously, there is something that makes it worth it to them to pay the $5 million, and its not going to be at the expense of their baseball team. I am willing to bet if you asked KW and JR about it, they will tell you it has no effect. Spring training expenses will be cut down as well as revenues rising. Forbes says they make as much profit as any team in baseball, and there's really no reason not to believe them, if you believe all of their other numbers.

 

I haven't heard anyone say it won't affect the bottom line. Do you have a link or something? With a zero sum operation, I am assuming that the money has to come from somewhere until proven otherwise.

[elrockinMT]

1 - In 2006 we were coming off a 72-90 season. In 2007, we're coming off a 89-74 season.

2 - In ST last year, it looked for a minute like both BA and JO would be starting in our OF. That won't be happening this season.

3 - John Danks and Gavin Floyd took big steps upwards, and entering 2008 they were big question marks. Danks has put on 15 extra pounds of muscle, and I'm probably more worried about Gavin out of the 2. Still they should put up ERA's around 4 I'm thinking.

4 - We know that we have a stud player in CQ now. When healthy, he's proven over his minor and major league career that he can produce. That's the key for him, to stay healthy.

5 - Entering 2008, I thought Javier Vazquez was our best pitcher, and we were going with 2 unproven young guys in Danks and Floyd. That's not the case this season.

6 - Our bullpen looks to be a plus again, entering 2008 we didn't know how good it was going to be. Adding Poreda to the mix could give the Sox a serious weapon of the pen also.

 

 

I think I will agree with most of what you posted here. I do think it's a bit iffy as far as a consistent bullpen and I never thought Javier was the best pitcher, but he will e hard to replace. Colon might have enough left to make up for his .500 pitching average though

[Dick Allen]

I haven't heard anyone say it won't affect the bottom line. Do you have a link or something? With a zero sum operation, I am assuming that the money has to come from somewhere until proven otherwise.

The zero sum operation is a myth. It is virtually imposssible to break exactly even every year. The $5 million will affect it, but they will make money of this in the long run, and they have been planning this for a few years, so chances are the money was most likely budgeted for years.

 

JR's real edict is to not operate in the red. He doesn't care if he doesn't make anything, but just don't lose anything. That usually results in a profit, unless Forbes is way off. 2005-2007 seasons, they supposedly made a total of $70 million in profit, AFTER meeting their heightened payroll.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

The zero sum operation is a myth. It is virtually imposssible to break exactly even every year. The $5 million will affect it, but they will make money of this in the long run, and they have been planning this for a few years, so chances are the money was most likely budgeted for years.

 

JR's real edict is to not operate in the red. He doesn't care if he doesn't make anything, but just don't lose anything. That usually results in a profit, unless Forbes is way off. 2005-2007 seasons, they supposedly made a total of $70 million in profit, AFTER meeting their heightened payroll.

 

Its a myth in the narrowed sense of the term. In reality the payroll fluxuations pretty much match the profits from year over year.

[Dick Allen]

Its a myth in the narrowed sense of the term. In reality the payroll fluxuations pretty much match the profits from year over year.

So they lost money last year, even with a couple of extra dates, and they really didn't want to sign Hunter or Fukudome. C'mon, you're not that drunk on the Kool-Aid. For the record, I have no problem with their payroll, I do have problems with raising ticket prices and lowering payroll, but there are some things that if you really think about it, are difficult to buy.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Here's the problem I have, the White Sox made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth last year. Will Quentin and Ramirez be able to maintain their performance levels or improve them? Can you reasonably ask Gavin Floyd to be as good or better than he was last year? Can you do the same with Danks? Can Colon hold up? Clayton Richard and/or Jeff Marquez better be a lot better than they were last year. Is Linebrink going to be the guy he was before his injury or the guy who should be pitching for Home Run Derby after he came back? Will Fields, Lillibridge and/or Owens perform better in the major leagues in 2009 than they did in the minor leagues in 2008? Will Dye, Thome, Konerko and Pierzynski be able to hold off father time one more season? Can you reasonably suspect Detroit to be the total trainwreck they were last year? Can you expect Cleveland to be as bad as they were in the first half last year? One or two no answers to the previous questions spell no playoffs IMO.

 

For the Tigers: Can Verlander bounce back from a horrible season in which he lost 17 games and had an ERA close to 5? Can little-known Armando Galarraga, a guy that like Danks/Floyd has had one good year, either repeat or improve in 2009? Can Jeremy Bonderman get back to his 2006 level after two years of bad? Nate Robertson? Dontrelle Willis? Suck and more suck. Can Joel Zumaya pitch more than 20 innings? Can Brandon Lyons,a guy who sucked in the NL, get it done in a tougher league when Zumaya inevitably goes down with another injury? Fernando Rodney? See Bonderman. The rest of their 'pen? Yikes.

 

For the Indians: Can Cliff Lee come anywhere close to repeating his '08 in '09? Which Fausto Carmona will they get? The all-star version in '07 or the hippo s*** version of 2008? Can Anthony Reyes hold it down as a starter after a 2-14, era over 6 as one in 2007? Can Carl Pavano stay healthy (lol@that one)? Jeremy Sowers? Aaron Laffey? Yeah. Can Kerry Wood's fragile arm hold up another year in a much tougher league? Will Victor Martinez ever be the same? Will Travis Hafner continue to suck? What will they get from the unproven Andy Marte at third?

 

For the Twins: Can their starting staff, unproven before last year, be just as good again? Will Liriano make it through the whole season? Can they consistently get the ball to Joe Nathan? Can Denard Span repeat his 2008? Can Carlos Gomez live up to the hype? Can Michael Cuddyer bounce back after an injury-plagued 2008?

 

For the Royals: Not even worth it.

 

 

So as you can see, EVERY team has MAJOR questions going into the year. Just some have less than others. But as you can see, NOBODY in our division (and I came up with all this off the top of my head. I could go even more in depth if I chose to) is in any better shape going into this season than we are.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Jordan4life

[southsider2k5]

So they lost money last year, even with a couple of extra dates, and they really didn't want to sign Hunter or Fukudome. C'mon, you're not that drunk on the Kool-Aid. For the record, I have no problem with their payroll, I do have problems with raising ticket prices and lowering payroll, but there are some things that if you really think about it, are difficult to buy.

 

So you don't think it is reasonable for them to cut costs in the worst economy in recent history? If I am drunk on Kool-aid, you need to be putting down the Hateorade.

[Dick Allen]

So you don't think it is reasonable for them to cut costs in the worst economy in recent history? If I am drunk on Kool-aid, you need to be putting down the Hateorade.

OK Stacey King. You just said they raise payroll by the margin of money they make the previous season, even though Forbes says they make a profit even after raising and paying payroll, $70 million combined for seasons 2005,2006,2007. I pointed out that BEFORE this crisis hit, they wanted Hunter or Fukudome and were willing to spend at least $50 million to get them. They didn't, and although JR is saying even with this economy attendance shouldn't be too affected and the raising of ticket prices which will more than cover the loss of 2 sponsors even if they are not replaced, which isn't happening, they will cut payroll. So, being zero sum as you say, they must have lost money last year, even with 3 extra home games and would have really been stuck this year had Hunter or Fukudome signed because contracts like those or Dye's, or Konerko's or Thome's aren't moving anywhere unless you pick up similar money.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

OK Stacey King. You just said they raise payroll by the margin of money they make the previous season, even though Forbes says they make a profit even after raising and paying payroll, $70 million combined for seasons 2005,2006,2007. I pointed out that BEFORE this crisis hit, they wanted Hunter or Fukudome and were willing to spend at least $50 million to get them. They didn't, and although JR is saying even with this economy attendance shouldn't be too affected and the raising of ticket prices which will more than cover the loss of 2 sponsors even if they are not replaced, which isn't happening, they will cut payroll. So, being zero sum as you say, they must have lost money last year, even with 3 extra home games and would have really been stuck this year had Hunter or Fukudome signed because contracts like those or Dye's, or Konerko's or Thome's aren't moving anywhere unless you pick up similar money.

 

You are reading waaaaaaay too deeply into that statement and turning it into a 100% truism. I never said they completely abandoned common sense. It would be really stupid to add payroll to the point where you know you are going to have a loss in total revenues. As I said when you pulled out that tired Fukodome/Hunter arguement before, times have changed. Just because the team was willing to spend money last year, doesn't mean they are now. If the economy was the same as last year, I have no doubt the payroll would be the same, or even higher this year. There are years of history that prove that out, as compared to the anecdotal hypothesis with zero flexibility you are trying to paint this as. Failure to recognize that times have changed is the type of stupidity that turns you into the Phoenix Coyotes.

[Dick Allen]

You are reading waaaaaaay too deeply into that statement and turning it into a 100% truism. I never said they completely abandoned common sense. It would be really stupid to add payroll to the point where you know you are going to have a loss in total revenues. As I said when you pulled out that tired Fukodome/Hunter arguement before, times have changed. Just because the team was willing to spend money last year, doesn't mean they are now. If the economy was the same as last year, I have no doubt the payroll would be the same, or even higher this year. There are years of history that prove that out, as compared to the anecdotal hypothesis with zero flexibility you are trying to paint this as. Failure to recognize that times have changed is the type of stupidity that turns you into the Phoenix Coyotes.

Have you ever disagreed with anything KW has said. 1,000,000 posts, I'd like to see one. You're brainwashed. The fact is since you've used Forbes as a reference before, this is a team, especially with all the money they have coming off the books next year, that can easily take on a lot more money and not be the Phoenix Coyotes. I've never suggested they do that, but what have they done with Forbes estimate of $70 million in profits for those 3 seasons? Don't say put it in the payroll because that $70 million includes the additional payroll. If you have listened to JR and Brooks Boyer, they aren't anticipating this massive loss of revenue you are projecting obviously with KW's "can't spend $1 if you only have $.50" playing in your ears. Season ticket sales, according to Brooks in Craine's, is actually up this year. The White Sox don't play in Detroit. Last year they were coming off a 90 loss season and had no problem making payroll. They have a better beginning point this year and will have just as much money to play with, if not more. I'm hoping KW's crying poor is a smokescreen and will add players when teams can't make payroll during the season.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Dick Allen

[Greg Hibbard]

For the Tigers: Can Verlander bounce back from a horrible season in which he lost 17 games and had an ERA close to 5? Can little-known Armando Galarraga, a guy that like Danks/Floyd has had one good year, either repeat or improve in 2009? Can Jeremy Bonderman get back to his 2006 level after two years of bad? Nate Robertson? Dontrelle Willis? Suck and more suck. Can Joel Zumaya pitch more than 20 innings? Can Brandon Lyons,a guy who sucked in the NL, get it done in a tougher league when Zumaya inevitably goes down with another injury? Fernando Rodney? See Bonderman. The rest of their 'pen? Yikes.

 

For the Indians: Can Cliff Lee come anywhere close to repeating his '08 in '09? Which Fausto Carmona will they get? The all-star version in '07 or the hippo s*** version of 2008? Can Anthony Reyes hold it down as a starter after a 2-14, era over 6 as one in 2007? Can Carl Pavano stay healthy (lol@that one)? Jeremy Sowers? Aaron Laffey? Yeah. Can Kerry Wood's fragile arm hold up another year in a much tougher league? Will Victor Martinez ever be the same? Will Travis Hafner continue to suck? What will they get from the unproven Andy Marte at third?

 

For the Twins: Can their starting staff, unproven before last year, be just as good again? Will Liriano make it through the whole season? Can they consistently get the ball to Joe Nathan? Can Denard Span repeat his 2008? Can Carlos Gomez live up to the hype? Can Michael Cuddyer bounce back after an injury-plagued 2008?

 

For the Royals: Not even worth it.

 

 

So as you can see, EVERY team has MAJOR questions going into the year. Just some have less than others. But as you can see, NOBODY in our division (and I came up with all this off the top of my head. I could go even more in depth if I chose to) is in any better shape going into this season than we are.

 

 

Yeah, but the major benchmark for success in 2009 should not be winning a s***ty division and putting ourselves in a position to win 1 out of 4 playoff games against much stronger AL teams.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, but the major benchmark for success in 2009 should not be winning a s***ty division and putting ourselves in a position to win 1 out of 4 playoff games against much stronger AL teams.

If they win the division, anything can happen. It would be better if they could win it without going into overtime, so they can set their pitching up, but winning the division should be the goal. A weaker division helps. I don't ever buy a team is built to win a division but not to win playoff series. After winning it all, winning a division and losing in the first round isn't thought of as highly as it once was.

Edited February 12, 2009 by Dick Allen

[Steve9347]

When Viciedo hits his 51st homer of the year, you will all understand Kenny's master plan.

[Cali]

What I don't get about thinking CQ, Alexei, Dank, Floyd and they whole "dropping off" thing is that there are "good" players in baseball (all sports for that matter)

 

And one season they have a "good" year, could be a rookie year could be after a couple of years, and then they just continue to, ya know, be good for many years. Happens all the time. For examples: See Hall of Fame.

 

I'm not saying they're all gonna continue their 2008 #'s or be Hall of Famers, but there's equal chance of a drop off as there is staying the same.

[YASNY]

Personally, I like the way this team is set up. I like the idea of the input of young blood on the team. For years, we've been reading the b****ing about this being an old, slow, station-to-station team. Well, it ain't going to change overnight, but it is in the process of changing. We added 4 very good fairly young ballplayers last year and have several possibilities to continue the trend this year. People point to CQ, ARam,Danks and Floyd and ask if we can expect that happen again with these new guys coming in. Probably not, but a lot of things didn't go right last year either and we still nabbed the division. We didn't get Hunter, Rowand or (thank God) Fukudome. Contreras, Crede, Jenks, Linebrink, Konerko, Uribe all spent time on the DL, I believe. Add to that Konerko's 4 months of suckiness, Contreras and Vazquez's inconsistencies on the mound, Swisher having an Erstadtesque season resulting in Dwayne AAAA Wise being in our starting lineup and of course, no TCQ down the stretch. There is a solid core of good young ballplayers and proven veterans on this team, and I see no reason to start the season standing on the ledge. Sure, it can all go in the crapper but it can be a wonderful, fun, magical year too. I'll do as always, go into it with reserved optimism and hope for the best.

[thedoctor]

for the long-term future of the organization i think kw took the appropriate course of action this offseason.

 

at the end of the 2007 season things really looked dire. we had no young talent on the major-league roster, nothing that could be considered impressive talent in the minors, and a roster full of older guys with ungainly contracts.

 

today, that outlook looks decidedly different, to get there and win a division while doing it is an accomplishment that i don't think can be undersold. that is impressive.

 

now, do i think we are legit world series contenders on paper right now? no. we have holes, particularly at those last two spots in the rotation. that worries me more than anything. at the same time, can we be counted out? look around the division. the indians are once again grabbing darling status but as of now the only sure things in their rotation are carmona, lee, and carl freaking pavano.

[Milkman delivers]

Seeing everyone being very confident in Quentin having another incredible year makes me worry that he's going to drop off precipitously or get injured.

[ptatc]

for the long-term future of the organization i think kw took the appropriate course of action this offseason.

 

at the end of the 2007 season things really looked dire. we had no young talent on the major-league roster, nothing that could be considered impressive talent in the minors, and a roster full of older guys with ungainly contracts.

 

today, that outlook looks decidedly different, to get there and win a division while doing it is an accomplishment that i don't think can be undersold. that is impressive.

 

now, do i think we are legit world series contenders on paper right now? no. we have holes, particularly at those last two spots in the rotation. that worries me more than anything. at the same time, can we be counted out? look around the division. the indians are once again grabbing darling status but as of now the only sure things in their rotation are carmona, lee, and carl freaking pavano.

 

I agree. There is nothing wrong with cutting back this year, seeing what the young players can do and kow what you have for next year.

 

There is nothing wrong with putting in young kids and taking lumps occasionally as long as the young players are talented.

 

Just think back to the Schuler years and how much better or at least promising the Sox have been since 2000.

 

I think I do like KW more than some on this board but only because I remember the Himes, Harrleson, and Schuler eras and cringe.

[joeynach]

Money. KW had to get the team payroll down, looks like about 15-20 mil. There is very little room for an increase in talent with a cost cutting offseason. Im not saying the cost cutting isn't necessary either. From what I heard KW was over budget last year and with the economy most teams are projection at least 20% drop off in Revenue from last year. So it only makes sense that KW has taken the payroll from like $115 last year to $95 this year. While at the same time got rid of some roster dead weight and added some youth/speed. It more less translates into a transition year. The good news is some teams have transition years and fall off the map and shed 40 mil in payroll, like the padres and rockies. The sox are in a transition year and still have some serious talent and a $95 mil payroll. True this off season defiantly did not add any considerable upgrade to the roster and revenue for team (and all teams) most likely will be down considerably. But the sox are positioned better to replace age with youth and speed for next several years and begin to phase out the dinosaur sluggers, by which you usually dont add $10M plus veterans to ur team. Thats basically it in a nutshell. The good news is no one else really did anything significant either (outside the yanks) given the on avg about 20-25% decrease in leisure spending.