Here's what I don't understand from KW's perspective

[Kalapse]

I'm not denying that.

Ok then. Your original point was that the White Sox don't trade for impact players at the break. Considering how they've picked up at least 1 impact player in 3 out of the last 5 contending seasons (2008 depends on how you view Griffey, personally I won't make the argument that he had a great impact on last year's team) and won the World Series in one of the seasons in which they didn't, I'd say your original point was incorrect.

[Milkman delivers]

Ok then. Your original point was that the White Sox don't trade for impact players at the break. Considering how they've picked up at least 1 impact player in 3 out of the last 5 contending seasons (2008 depends on how you view Griffey, personally I won't make the argument that he had a great impact on last year's team) and won the World Series in one of the seasons in which they didn't, I'd say your original point was incorrect.

 

I definitely won't count Griffey, as he was mediocre when we got him, and he added little. I also don't think MacDougal was an impact player when we picked him up, but we just happened to strike gold for half of a season. And winning the World Series has nothing to do with my point, as I was talking about making moves for players at the deadline and not the results.

Edited February 15, 2009 by Milkman delivers

[Kalapse]

I definitely won't count Griffey, as he was mediocre when we got him, and he added little. I also don't think MacDougal was an impact player when we picked him up, but we just happened to strike gold for half of a season. And winning the World Series has nothing to do with my point, as I was talking about making moves for players at the deadline and not the results.

Ok but as for the 2005 season. Shouldn't they only make trades at the break if the general manager feels it's a necessity? In 2007 they had no need to acquire an impact player because the team was awful and in 2005 there was no need for an major acquisition because the club felt it was not a necessity, a belief that later proved to be correct when they went on to win the World Series with the same team they had as of July 31st. So since 2003 when they've needed to make some sort of deal they've made one, sans 2008.

[Milkman delivers]

Ok but as for the 2005 season. Shouldn't they only make trades at the break if the general manager feels it's a necessity? In 2007 they had no need to acquire an impact player because the team was awful and in 2005 there was no need for an major acquisition because the club felt it was not a necessity, a belief that later proved to be correct when they went on to win the World Series with the same team they had as of July 31st. So since 2003 when they've needed to make some sort of deal they've made one, sans 2008.

 

The only thing I was saying is that this team does not make that big deadline move. I saw a few people already talking about "having money for the deadline" to add that last piece we'll inevitably need (starter, most likely). I was just trying to stop that needless banter before it even started. Once the deadline approaches, we'll see more and more threads tying us to this guy and that guy, and we'll end up getting a former star in his twilight. I wasn't making a comment on whether or not these moves are necessary or correct, just that we don't make them.

[Kalapse]

The only thing I was saying is that this team does not make that big deadline move. I saw a few people already talking about "having money for the deadline" to add that last piece we'll inevitably need (starter, most likely). I was just trying to stop that needless banter before it even started. Once the deadline approaches, we'll see more and more threads tying us to this guy and that guy, and we'll end up getting a former star in his twilight. I wasn't making a comment on whether or not these moves are necessary or correct, just that we don't make them.

Also, when has Kenny had either A.) the financial flexibility to make such a deal, something he might have this season or B.) the young talent in the minors to make such a move, something he definitely has now. The last time was probably 2004 when he had a couple million dollars and Jeremy Reed at his disposal and he went ahead and made that BIG move.

 

The problem has been expending all of his limited minor league/financial resources in the offseason then having nothing to offer come the deadline with this past season being a prime example of this.

[Milkman delivers]

Also, when has Kenny had either A.) the financial flexibility to make such a deal, something he might have this season or B.) the young talent in the minors to make such a move, something he definitely has now. The last time was probably 2004 when he had a couple million dollars and Jeremy Reed at his disposal and he went ahead and made that BIG move.

 

The problem has been expending all of his limited minor league/financial resources in the offseason then having nothing to offer come the deadline with this past season being a prime example of this.

 

Very true, so I guess we'll see what he does this year with the money. I'm not confident that that move will be made, though.

[Balta1701]

Very true, so I guess we'll see what he does this year with the money. I'm not confident that that move will be made, though.

Come July, I'd be shocked if any team other than the Yankees actually felt like they still had money to spend.

[witesoxfan]

Well, that'll certainly change this year.

 

We'll see. I think it's very likely that could be the case, but at the same time, either players could step up or the Sox could be out of contention and won't be major players on the trade market. I won't call it a certainty that it will happen.

[Milkman delivers]

We'll see. I think it's very likely that could be the case, but at the same time, either players could step up or the Sox could be out of contention and won't be major players on the trade market. I won't call it a certainty that it will happen.

 

I was saying that we'd have a mediocre to bad team, or a gaping hole somewhere. You said that is something this team hasn't ever really had.

[caulfield12]

Assuming all the major deals are done and we head into Spring training with close to the current roster...

 

Why would an experienced, seasoned GM head into spring training/regular season relying on so many of the same things going right that went _inexplicably_ right last season? It's one thing to praise him for scooping undervalued legit major leaguers and turning them into productive major components on a team. It's quite another to thing they will magically retain what can only be described as peak value year after year after year.

 

Even if we accept the fact that CQ is a fantastic all-around ballplayer, how many individuals are able to his .290/30/100 year after year after year? How many that do break out with a single season like that are pitched much differently in year 2 and regress a bit? Even if we can establish that Gavin Floyd has come around and developed into a solid #3 starter, how do his peripherals suggest anything but a ceiling of 15-17 wins and a slightly above average ERA given his skill set/tools? Is it likely that Ramirez will be able to have a similar season and have as many clutch hits? Is it acceptable to just pencil John Danks in for another 3.32 ERA season - a season that was over 2 runs in ERA better than his previous?

 

Moreover, why are we even considering relying on guys like Contreras (injuries), Richard (little experience), Broadway (wayyyy unproven) as part of a competitive major league rotation? Why is Josh Fields going to work out at third base? Who sees anything of value in Wilson Betimet and why? Why are incomplete and substandard guys like Brian Anderson, who has admittedly been screwed over at times by this organization, still being considered as starting pieces of the puzzle? Why is this team still saddled with effectively 4 dh's, a problem we have wrestled with for going on 6 years?

 

I guess my main question is...where the bleeping hell is our insurance policy? There are so many questions regarding this team that as it appears now the decision making process has been somewhat baffling. From a transparency standpoint, all that's been done is shedding of payroll, and no major pieces have been added. What's especially baffling about this is that KW is setting this team up to be constructed primarily in such a way that he will shoulder 100% of the blame if it does come in at anything less than 80 wins. He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before.

 

 

Please put down the "worry pipe" and be more of a Bulldog like your namesake.

 

First, no team has significantly improved in our division. Cleveland added DeRosa and Wood, both coming off career/atypical years, and they're heading into a more difficult league. They will miss Fr. Gutierrez a lot. Just like we have our Big 4 that we're hoping for a repeat from, they are going to be hard-pressed to expect that same production out of Shin Choo Shoo and Ben Francisco. Their pitching after Lee and Carmona (assuming Lee's anywhere close to last year and Carmona doesn't become Jaime Navarro) is very, very suspect. Martinez and Hafner are question marks, healthwise. Then you have an infield consisting of DeRosa and Peralta, with Cabrera and Garko/Martinez. That's just a train wreck defensively.

 

Second, the market will continue to loosen up throughout the season as teams fall out of the race and look to slash payroll with Blue Light sales of veteran, proven talent. As the economy also conspires against cash-strapped teams, KW will be able to swoop in and get some bargains that were too costly...the likes of Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson, etc., or another starting pitcher or bullpen piece. The season hasn't started...it's easy to predict gloom and doom and you will right about 25-33% of the time, just like Baseball Prospectus.

 

Third, Minnesota was in the same exact position we are coming into last season...predicted for 4th place and written off by everyone. But their starting pitching and BA w/ RISP were off the charts good...none of their starters were predicted to enjoy the level of success they did so quickly, with the exception of Francisco Liriano, who was actually one of their disappointments down the stretch. It remains to be seen if he will ever be the same.

 

Fourth, everyone just assumes that Jocketty was silly enough (and you don't win a WS as a GM being silly) to trade away 5-6 seasons of Homer Bailey for one season of an overpriced (currently) Jermaine Dye, and then undoubtedly lose him and not get draft pick compensation either. Jocketty remembers trades like V. Zambrano for Kazmir (although that was two pitchers, but a veteran for a raw talent) and those type of trade almost never occur anymore. Plus the White Sox under JR almost NEVER send money in a deal.

 

Fifth, you're not taking into account both the present (as soon as this season) and future abilities of Josh Fields, Aaron Poreda, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers and Beckham to have a big impact on the major league club. We talk about looking for a repeat from Quentin/Ramirez/Danks/Floyd, but if they slide, isn't it equally as probable that two of those aforementioned players (if not 3) that have all been ranked near or close to the Top 50 MLB prospects will have an unexpected impact?

 

Sixth, now is as good a time as any to find out what we really have with all these young players. Some of them won't make it. Others can be used as bargaining chips to acquire an impact bat or arm at midseason. Yes, there's the risk we're out of it at the ASB (like the Indians last year, or the White Sox in 2007), but the risk of not getting any value back for Fields or Anderson is also pretty high. Unfortunately, we lost Crede without getting anything in return and the same MIGHT happen w/ Orlando Cabrera.

 

Seventh, after the TOP 5 prospects, we have a lot of interesting pieces that are close to making an impact...and KW just wants to throw them all into the mix and see which ones emerge victorious.

 

FORMER PROSPECT, NOW SUSPECT (but still of value to other teams to varying degrees): Anderson, Owens, Marquez, Lillibridge, Betemit

INTERESTING: Getz, Cole Armstrong, Clayton Richard, Jhonny Nunez (Yankees), Santos Rodriguez (Braves), Brandon Allen, Shelby, Jordan Danks

 

Something will inevitably happen like Nunez or Rodriguez making the team out of ST, like Scott Radinsky or Boone Logan in seasons past.

 

Eighth, all of major league baseball has been compressed and there is more parity than ever before, with the possible exceptions of the NYC teams...I agree, it would have been VERY NICE to add another veteran starter or CF/leadoff hitter. KW has much better information than any of us do, and he didn't pull the trigger on Taveras or someone like Daniel Cabrera. He did on Colon. It will be interesting to see how that low-risk gamble, and especially the ones made by the Red Sox, work out over the course of the season vis a vis the throw money at the problem approach of the Yankees. Every team in baseball has to be counting their lucky stars they are not in the position of the Blue Jays or Orioles. Every division looks to be wide open in baseball, except for the AL East and NL Central.

 

Ninth, KW knows he has a lot on the line this season. He's making a huge bet that we can be competitive this season and that this will be the "bridge" year to get us to the "future" teams of 2010 and beyond. Historically, he has taken the approach of trying to put together a team capable of competing for the World Series every season. This has been the first season (because of payroll, aging roster and the economy) that he's taken a very different approach than in the past. But NEVER, EVER think that means he has given up on this season. Ozzie and KW are both too competitive and prideful to go through another 2007. Everyone in baseball knows the AL Central can be won by any of the teams (even the Royals, although that's a tougher argument), and the White Sox are the team best-positioned of any in the division to make a move at the break. The Twins are bound financially by two things...a new contract for Mauer or losing their "hometown hero" in the near future and massive club expenses with the building of the new stadium that will hold their payroll down. They also have one of the most talented players in baseball that nobody wants on their team (especially Gardenhire), and that is Delmon Young. Hopefully he will be traded before he can mature (if that happens) and destroy the rest of the division offensively. We dodged a bullet with David Ortiz, here's hoping Gardenhire gets his way (as with Garza) and Young is also traded.

 

Tenth, KW also knows he's not going anywhere, and even another 2007 won't put his job at risk. It will be only after two seasons like 2007 in a row (09/10) that KW would be close to being on the "hot seat," and that would be more with the local media than JR. I also think it would be inevitable that Ozzie would do something crazy and be forced to resign, but I don't expect anything but a .500 team this year and a 90 win team in 2010 and beyond.

 

We've had the best team in baseball at various points of the 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008 seasons. I think KW has done a tremendous job fielding consistently competitive teams over the decade, although one could certainly argue the Twins have been more effective from a payroll/development and Division championships perspective. It's hard not to forget how close it was to 5 for the Twins (2002-2004, 2006, 2008) and just 2 (2000, 2005) for the Sox instead of 4 and 3. Big difference psychologically.

 

Eleventh, our bench promises to be deeper and better than 2008: Hall's overbloated contract and inept arm is gone, Betemit provides a lot of versatility (I consider Uribe more of a starter than bench player last year), Anderson/Owens/Wise and then Lillibrige/Getz gives us an interesting player off the bench (especially Lillibridge) that we've been lacking since we let Ozuna go. Yes, you can argue that the catching position MIGHT be weaker, but it certainly won't be in 2010 and beyond.

Edited February 16, 2009 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Also, when has Kenny had either A.) the financial flexibility to make such a deal, something he might have this season or B.) the young talent in the minors to make such a move, something he definitely has now. The last time was probably 2004 when he had a couple million dollars and Jeremy Reed at his disposal and he went ahead and made that BIG move.

 

The problem has been expending all of his limited minor league/financial resources in the offseason then having nothing to offer come the deadline with this past season being a prime example of this.

 

 

Don't forget Loaiza for Contreras. That trade had just as big, if not more of an impact, than the Garcia move. Luckily we ended up getting Danks for McCarthy instead of Soriano...who wouldn't have made a huge difference on our roster as currently configured, because his salary would be even more difficult to move today than Dye's.

 

Even if the White Sox are in a free fall this year (like 2007), who could they realistically move without eating salary, which they are loath to do? You can see them TRYING to deal Dye, Konerko and Thome...maybe even AJ...but only a few teams would be willing to take their contracts, like alone give them any talent back in return. This is THE YEAR the Yankees should be able to win it all, being in the financial position they are to hand pick virtually an All-Star at every position on the diamond to add to the mix at the ASB.

 

The only players that would draw attention would be Buehrle, Floyd and Jenks...as the assumption obviously must be that KW isn't going to trade Quentin or Danks.

Edited February 16, 2009 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

I was saying that we'd have a mediocre to bad team, or a gaping hole somewhere. You said that is something this team hasn't ever really had.

 

I know. I was just saying that I think it's likely one or both of those will happen, but I won't call it a certainty. Just semantics really.