Jump to content

2009 Sox Predictions Merged Threads


knightni

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 198
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

The AL Central

 

White Sox 92-70

Twins 86-76

Cleveland 80-82

Kansas City 76-86

Detroit 68-94

 

The starting pitching staff holds up pretty well, and the pen has a solid year. The offense suffers through tons of inconsistancies, as the lead off role causes many headaches, and lack of RBIs for the middle of the order.

 

Gordan Beckham makes his Sox debut before Dayan Viciedo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (soxfan3530 @ Mar 27, 2009 -> 12:31 PM)
I was there last week and saw it at 79.

The future bets made no sense to me. They have us at 79, but then we were the favorites (along with the Twins) to win the division at 4/1 and only 10/1 to win the World Series... huh????

 

 

It's all based off how much action a certain bet is getting. People are betting more $ on the Sox to win the divsion and WS (as flyers) then on their over/under totals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (watchtower41 @ Mar 27, 2009 -> 01:03 PM)
It's all based off how much action a certain bet is getting. People are betting more $ on the Sox to win the divsion and WS (as flyers) then on their over/under totals.

yeah i get that, but it seems dumb to be on those and not bet on the over in the wins at the same time. no one is winning a division with less than 79 wins. this isnt the NL West.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seen this write up on MLBTraderumors....

 

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes [March 27 at 1:50pm CST]

 

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the White Sox. Here's what we wrote about them on October 9th. Changes for 2009:

 

Additions: Bartolo Colon, Dayan Viciedo, Brent Lillibridge, Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, Jayson Nix, Kelvin Jimenez, Ryan Braun, Franklyn German, John Van Benschoten, Tyler Flowers, Ben Broussard, Bryan Myrow, Josh Kroeger, Michael Restovich

 

Subtractions: Nick Swisher, Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Pablo Ozuna. Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar

 

The '09 squad will be appreciably different, especially the offense. How will they compare to the 4.98 runs per game scored last year? CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool suggest 5.07 runs per game, which would again rank 5th in the AL. This simulation has Chris Getz leading off and DeWayne Wise splitting time evenly with Brian Anderson. Gone are the 2,075 ABs given to Cabrera, Swisher, Crede, Uribe, Griffey, and Hall.

 

If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at last year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games. Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?

 

Last year's rotation posted a 4.09 ERA in 998.3 innings, 4th in the league. Vazquez contributed 21% of those innings, but at a 4.67 ERA. Once again, the White Sox will have to prove projection systems wrong. CHONE sees a Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras/Colon/Richard/Marquez rotation posting a 4.91 ERA in 934 innings. There is a good case to be made that projection systems are selling the newly-locked up Floyd short by calling for a 5.00+ ERA. And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark. Still, it would've been nice to see the Sox add more starting depth or hang on to Vazquez.

 

Logan's 5.95 ERA is gone from the bullpen; the core group returns. Projections suggest that as a whole, the pen is capable of repeating its 4.13 ERA.

 

Defensively, the White Sox ranked 12th of 14 AL teams according to The Fielding Bible II. The book says the poor fielding was spread across the diamond, with above-average work only at shortstop, third base, and left field. Fields can't match Crede at third, and the Getz/Ramirez middle infield is an unknown. Not having Swisher and Griffey in center should help.

 

GM Ken Williams took a gamble dealing Vazquez, as the '09 rotation is not necessarily a strength. As presently constructed, even with a quality offense, this team seems destined to win 84 games at best. The standard disclaimer: the Ken Williams' White Sox have never been predictable.

 

Bottom line: The White Sox will again need multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (EvilJester99 @ Mar 27, 2009 -> 05:52 PM)
Seen this write up on MLBTraderumors....

 

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes [March 27 at 1:50pm CST]

 

I don't understand how these projections are made and how they fail to account for past results. They have Buehrle, a career ERA of 3.80, as the best starter on the Sox in 2009 with a projected 4.57 ERA?

 

Then the author takes things further by claiming that Fields' defense will be worse than the twenty errors by Crede in less than 2/3 of a season in 2008. Next, although the author notes that Vazquez had an ERA higher than the starters' average ERA, he thinks it would have been better to keep him for 2009. Finally, the writer projects the team at 84 wins with the Sox needing "multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08."

 

Under this kind of analysis, a career average (or even worse) year by Buehrle would be an "unexpected performance." If I used this kind of statistical analysis and logic in my own research, I'd get laughed out of the profession.

 

For the record, I voted for 84-87, but this writer convinced me that the Sox have a ceiling much higher! (half joking there)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

79.

 

Poor defense, slow plodding lineup, no viable major league centerfielder, and Ozzie's insistance on batting their worst hitter at the top of the lineup = 79 wins tops.

 

Now, if Ozzie decides to bat Getz and Ramirez at the top, they could break .500. If KW can bring in a real major league CFer, they may be a legit contender.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

72-75 (1 voter is me!)

 

i think our pitching staff will be average, probably a bit below average (Danks @ 3.6+ ERA, Mark @ 4.3~), Floyd putting up a 4.5 ERA, Colon/Contreras/Marquez/Richard (They'll all pitch this year, it'll be musical chairs in 4th and 5th spots) posting a combined ERA of around 5-ish

 

offense will once again be homerun-or-nothing, except Dye and Thome won't hit 35+ (I'm guessing Dye sits around 28-30, and Thome around 25-27)and will ultimately score a very very average number of runs given they play 82 in the bandbox

 

Thome will miss a significant amount of games due to an injury, to either his back or abdomen

 

I can see a few veteran players (Dye, Konerko) being dealt at the deadline for more "Impact Players"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 27, 2009 -> 10:46 AM)
Sox will go 79-83, finishing in 4th place. Tigers will win the AL Central.

 

Surprises: Wise, Thome

Disappointments: Fields, Floyd

Ahhh, the old Gavin Floyd "disappoints" rears its ugly head AGAIN. :lol:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AL EAST:

Yankees (102-60)* - If they don't win over 100 games, something is very wrong.

Red Sox (95-67)* - Another very solid season for the Cubs of the AL.

Rays (90-72) - It'll be tough to top their 08 campaign, and they get stuck in the AL East.

Blue Jays (80-82) - Decent team, still has a lot of work.

Orioles (62-100) - I think I might be generous with their number of W's.

 

AL CENTRAL:

Twins (88-74)* - They are always up there, and their young guys only got better, a lot will depend on Mauer, however.

Royals (81-81) - Surprise, I think they are a very solid young team and will play good together.

Indians (81-81) - Better than last year, but still has work.

White Sox (78-84) - It will be tough for the young pitchers to repeat 08, as well as big question marks at the back end of the rotation.

Tigers (76-86) - Again, lack of pitching hurts the Tigers.

 

AL WEST:

Angels (98-64)* - Still the best team in the west.

Athletics (84-78) - Solid team, but they aren't quite there yet, 2010 can be a big year for them.

Rangers (80-82) - A lotta O, but little in the pitching department.

Mariners (64-98) - Just a bad team.

 

(Got tired of explanations)

 

NL EAST:

Mets (96-66)*

Braves (90-72)*

Phillies (86-76)

Marlins (78-84)

Nationals (63-99)

 

NL CENTRAL:

Cubs (92-70)*

Reds (86-76)

Cardinals (82-80)

Brewers (80-82)

Astros (76-86)

Pirates (69-93)

 

NL WEST:

Diamondbacks (89-73)*

Dodgers (88-74)

Rockies (76-86)

Giants (76-86)

Padres (69-93)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are my standings predictions:

http://www.fan-exchange.com/mlb/standingsp...s.asp?UserID=53

 

White Sox hitting:

http://www.fan-exchange.com/mlb/teamhittin...W&userid=53

 

White Sox pitching:

http://www.fan-exchange.com/mlb/teampitchi...mp;franchid=CHW

 

I have some tweaking to do on the stats as I realized some of them are high.

 

We should have a soxtalk.com competition for predictoins on www.fan-exchange.com Any interest?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A diehard Whitesox fan and good friend of mine passed away a couple of months ago from Joliet. He was early 40s. He will somehow make this team do incredible things this year. I guarantee it! He lived his last 10 years in pain. The only enjoyment he had was talking about and watching HIS Chicago White Sox. Correction: Ralph Murray's Chicago White Sox! Sucks that we wont be going to the games together anymore... And how couldnt you like this team? So many young talented bustass charismatic guys. GO SOX :gosoxretro:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...