Dobrow's Power Rankings

[iamshack]

I agree power rankings at this point in the season are completely pointless.

 

But I just scratch my head reading some media experts analysis of our team as 'aging'... with 'guys on the downside'... etc., while giving other teams with players the same age or older a pass.

 

On most rosters in baseball, Konerko (just about to turn 33 in March) and AJ (just turned 32) would not be considered 'old' guys.

 

But I guess guys like JD Drew, Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Posada, Jeter, ARod, Damon, Matsui, Derrek Lee, Soriano, Eric Byrnes, Carlos Delgado, Maggs (and most of Detroit's roster), Vlad, Torii Hunter, the list goes on and on... (who btw are all older than either Paulie or AJ)... don't age.

 

And in what bizarre twisted parallel universe do the Cardinals, Reds, Orioles, and Giants rank ahead of the WhiteSox?

 

I think the "old" moniker comes from having guys that have been with the team for a few years...it tends to make the team seem a bit stale.

 

The Angels will be praised for bringing on Bobby Abreu, but JD, Pauly and AJ will be considered "aging."

[witesoxfan]

I'd be surprised if Konerko's puts up that OPS again though, but that would be based on him being completely healthy throughout the season, which I doubt he can do.

 

Still I think he'll get over an .800OPS especially considering he was our best hitter in the 2nd half of last sason argubly.

 

I've said as much too, and I expect a pretty big season from him. To the untrained eye however, it looked like Konerko fell off considerably last season though, and based on pure statistics, it's true.

[scenario]

I think the "old" moniker comes from having guys that have been with the team for a few years...it tends to make the team seem a bit stale.

 

The Angels will be praised for bringing on Bobby Abreu, but JD, Pauly and AJ will be considered "aging."

 

 

Good points.

 

And the Phils replace Pat Burrell (who is about 6 months younger than Konerko and about 2 months older than AJ) with Raul Ibanez (36) and no mention of age either.

 

Oh well. It always seems to be our team's advantage to play with a chip on their shoulder, so I shouldn't complain if media guys help us out there, eh?

[sircaffey]

But I guess guys like JD Drew, Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Posada, Jeter, ARod, Damon, Matsui, Derrek Lee, Soriano, Eric Byrnes, Carlos Delgado, Maggs (and most of Detroit's roster), Vlad, Torii Hunter, the list goes on and on... (who btw are all older than either Paulie or AJ)... don't age.

 

Almost all of those teams have at least 2 young established run producers, so age isn't as much of a concern for those teams (except the Angels who have never really needed much offense to win). That's why it's not mentioned as much. Outside of those 3, the Sox have Carlos and Alexei both modest question marks going into next season, and outside of them serious question marks. No one like Youkilis/Pedroia, Texeira/Nady, Reyes/Wright, Granderson/Cabrera ...etc. Age concerns will dissipate once Quentin, Ramirez, and Beckham establish themselves, but until then, the age concerns are justified.

[Texsox]

Congrats on your drinking buddy award

 

Thank you.

 

I would hate to be a writer and have to rank, in order, all the teams. At best, brackets make more sense

 

Playoff bond, theirs to lose

Should be in the race all the way

Lots of things have to go really right

.500 would be a victory

Enjoy the sunshine and the opponent

 

I'd place the Sox in the third group somewhere between 13-23. The only reason to try and rank all in order is to spark debate and get readers and viewers.

[caulfield12]

Good points.

 

And the Phils replace Pat Burrell (who is about 6 months younger than Konerko and about 2 months older than AJ) with Raul Ibanez (36) and no mention of age either.

 

Oh well. It always seems to be our team's advantage to play with a chip on their shoulder, so I shouldn't complain if media guys help us out there, eh?

 

 

Not to mention Jamie Moyer.

 

I think it's the fact that all of those guys (Konerko/AJ/Dye) have been together going on five seasons now and have been the core of the line-up (along with the addition of Thome in 2006, and Thome's age) that has largely created this perception. And, as they say, perception is 90% of reality. Maybe they listened to Ozzie and KW repeatedly saying how old and one-dimensional we are/were and it's hard for the media to get rid of that perception.

 

We have a lot of interesting youth and talent (Ramirez is approaching his prime years, Viciedo, Flowers, Poreda, Beckham, Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Fields, Lillibridge, Getz...even including the likes of Anderson, Owens, Betemit, Marquez, Richard, Allen, Shelby and Jordan Danks).

 

When those three or four "core" players are gone and you start talking about this line-up:

 

Gordon Beckham, 2B

Alexei Ramirez, SS

Carlos Quentin, RF

Dayan Viciedo, LF (DH/1B)

Tyler Flowers, C (DH)

Brandon Allen, 1B (DH)

Josh Fields, 3B/1B

Lillibridge/Danks/Anderson, CF

 

That's a very young and athletic collection of talent.

 

There's one VERY, VERY big and obvious flaw with this future line-up. Well, make that two.

 

First, there's NO left-handed hitters on the horizon, with the exception of Brandon Allen and maybe Chris Getz. If we thought your line-up was unbalanced before with only Thome and AJ (usually), this one is even worse in that regard.

 

Next, there's four players in that line-up (which doesn't have a DH) that are essentially DH's perhaps as their BEST position.

 

Brandon Allen, Flowers, Viciedo and Fields...so what KW has on his hands is a much younger version of the all-or-nothing 2000-2008 offenses, more or less.

 

The main difference is that we're not only younger, but more athletic than in the past, especially up the middle of the diamond (Ramirez, Beckham, Lillibridge, Jordan Danks, Anderson) than we've been this decade. Not to harp on Chris Young again, but having that combination of speed/power/athleticism just gives your team (see D-Rays or Diamondbacks in 2007) another dimension. I guess you can add Shelby to the mix, but I've yet to figure out exactly where he fits in with the future White Sox. He's not a corner outfielder, 2B would seem to be taken and I don't think he'll ever be the defensive stud that Anderson, Lillibridge and/or Jord. Danks could be.

 

Shelby and Getz are the players that I see having the hardest time being starters in the future, at least long-term with the White Sox.

Edited February 17, 2009 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

Shelby and Getz are the players that I see having the hardest time being starters in the future, at least long-term with the White Sox.

 

Good analysis as always 'field. I concur wholeheartedly that the right handedness is a problem with the future lineup, provided it's kept together. I believe, though, that the Sox will wind up trading someone, probably Fields, after he hopefully establishes some trade value this season. They'll look for young pitching, and to get even younger, further from arb, etc. With Getz having the first crack at 2B, possibly, this season, if he establishes himself as a good OBP guy, he'll be hard to get out of the lineup because they need his lefthandedness, probably in the 2-hole in front of Q.

 

Basically, we got hope like hell that Allen develops, can play 1B, and could be good enough to be in the four or five-hole. Meanwhile, we replace Thome with another left-handed DH, maybe a faster, OBP guy.

 

Then, we get something like this.

 

3B Beckham

2B Getz

RF Q

LF Dayan

1B Allen or Lefty DH

SS Missile

DH Lefty or Allen

C Flowers

CF JorDanks

 

This lineup has plenty of L-R balance, speed and power. And in 2011, at least, it'll be pretty dirt cheap, too. This is what I'm hoping for anyway. Obviously the outfield defense/catching could be suspect, but the infield might be solid. Moving Dayan to DH and getting a lefty OF could get the same type of lineup and better defense.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but I wouldn't rule out Abreu as an acquisition down the road. He's one a one year deal, Vlad may soon require a graceful transition to the Angels' DH, and we'll need him even more post-Thome. Maybe there will be better options in the next two FA classes.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I wouldn't rule out Abreu as an acquisition down the road. He's one a one year deal, Vlad may soon require a graceful transition to the Angels' DH, and we'll need him even more post-Thome. Maybe there will be better options in the next two FA classes.

With Contreras, possibly Dye, and Thome coming off the books at the end of this season, even with raises for people and the shaky economy I think next year we'll be in a position to spend more than we were this year.

[ILMOU]

With Contreras, possibly Dye, and Thome coming off the books at the end of this season, even with raises for people and the shaky economy I think next year we'll be in a position to spend more than we were this year.

 

I agree completely. Especially, if this season is more successful than some are projecting.

 

[The Ginger Kid]

i do agree that minny has the best team on paper in the central. Their pitching is just plain better top to bottom.

[Kalapse]

With Contreras, possibly Dye, and Thome coming off the books at the end of this season, even with raises for people and the shaky economy I think next year we'll be in a position to spend more than we were this year.

Between the 6 guaranteed deals remaining, the 6 arbitration eligible players and Matt Thornton's $2.25 team option the Sox are going to be on the hook for somewhere between $65M and $70M for 13 players next year depending greatly on how Quentin, Danks, Floyd and Jenks perform this season and whether or not any of them are locked up to long term deals.

[scenario]

I guess you can add Shelby to the mix, but I've yet to figure out exactly where he fits in with the future White Sox. He's not a corner outfielder, 2B would seem to be taken and I don't think he'll ever be the defensive stud that Anderson, Lillibridge and/or Jord. Danks could be.

 

Shelby and Getz are the players that I see having the hardest time being starters in the future, at least long-term with the White Sox.

 

I'm not sure why you seem so down on Shelby (I gather that from this and earlier posts).

 

What's not to like? IMO the kid is the full package... speed and power. In a poll of Carolina League managers, Shelby was selected the most exciting offensive player in the league.

 

And the Sox seem to have committed him to playing LF and not 2B, but you're not buying it.

 

Why?

Edited February 18, 2009 by scenario

[caulfield12]

I'm not sure why you seem so down on Shelby (I gather that from this and earlier posts).

 

What's not to like? IMO the kid is the full package... speed and power. In a poll of Carolina League managers, Shelby was selected the most exciting offensive player in the league.

 

And the Sox seem to have committed him to playing LF and not 2B, but you're not buying it.

 

Why?

 

I'm not entirely sure. Maybe because being a White Sox "top prospect" hasn't been as meaningful this decade. Part of it will be that he will turn 24 this season, so he's a bit older or at the same age as the players around him. Perhaps because he was undrafted, despite being the son of a former major leaguer.

 

Maybe he's going to be more like Durham than Willie Harris at the major league level. This will be a very important season for him. Jord. Danks and Shelby are really our only legit outfield prospects, unless you throw Viciedo into that mix. To play a corner outfield spot, he's either going to have to be a player like Pods and lead off, be able to hit 20 homers consistently (maybe that's possible at USCF)...or we're going to have to pick up the power from our middle infield (possible with Beckham/Ramirez), catcher (Flowers) and centerfielder. Maybe he is a fit...I'm just not sure about his defensive ability. He seems to be one of those players without a real position...that's both good and bad...but sometimes players like that get labelled early in their careers as utility players or 4th outfielders. I'm not going to say he doesn't have the ability to outproduce, say Chris Getz, because all signs point to him being a more dynamic offensive player than either Getz or Lillibridge (Soriano-Lite or maybe something like Ramirez last year sprinkled in with 10-15 more steals).

 

One thing is for sure. He's definitely getting overlooked or forgotten about with the focus on the top five players in our system...and the continuing hopes for Danks and Brandon Allen. Maybe if our depth chart hadn't flipped so dramatically, his name would be more prevalent in our conversations.

 

You also have to believe that if Viciedo impresses and Quentin continues his career ascension that Shelby really doesn't fit in as a DH (well, maybe!) 2B seems to be the position where he had the most upside, yet he was moved off that spot, most likely because of defensive concerns.

 

[caulfield12]

Good analysis as always 'field. I concur wholeheartedly that the right handedness is a problem with the future lineup, provided it's kept together. I believe, though, that the Sox will wind up trading someone, probably Fields, after he hopefully establishes some trade value this season. They'll look for young pitching, and to get even younger, further from arb, etc. With Getz having the first crack at 2B, possibly, this season, if he establishes himself as a good OBP guy, he'll be hard to get out of the lineup because they need his lefthandedness, probably in the 2-hole in front of Q.

 

Basically, we got hope like hell that Allen develops, can play 1B, and could be good enough to be in the four or five-hole. Meanwhile, we replace Thome with another left-handed DH, maybe a faster, OBP guy.

 

Then, we get something like this.

 

3B Beckham

2B Getz

RF Q

LF Dayan

1B Allen or Lefty DH

SS Missile

DH Lefty or Allen

C Flowers

CF JorDanks

 

This lineup has plenty of L-R balance, speed and power. And in 2011, at least, it'll be pretty dirt cheap, too. This is what I'm hoping for anyway. Obviously the outfield defense/catching could be suspect, but the infield might be solid. Moving Dayan to DH and getting a lefty OF could get the same type of lineup and better defense.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but I wouldn't rule out Abreu as an acquisition down the road. He's one a one year deal, Vlad may soon require a graceful transition to the Angels' DH, and we'll need him even more post-Thome. Maybe there will be better options in the next two FA classes.

Scott Boras' top guys for the 2009-10 offseason: Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Madson. He's weak in the starting pitching category with Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood.

The group feels older than this year's. Players who will be under 30 in 2010: Omar Infante, Hank Blalock, Wily Mo Pena, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Madson.

John Lackey heads the starting pitchers, though he may sign an extension. After him it's Myers, unless Erik Bedard or Harden have huge, healthy years. Of course, there's always guys you don't see coming, like Ryan Dempster this year.

If you want a big bat, you're looking at whoever's left of Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Holliday, Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Aubrey Huff, and Jim Thome.

Forget about these guys, whose options will likely be exercised: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb.

 

from mlbtraderumors.com

 

I guess you can throw Abreu and maybe Dunn into the mix, although Dunn's desirability ranking took a dive somewhat with that curious contract from the Nationals.

[scenario]

I'm not entirely sure. Maybe because being a White Sox "top prospect" hasn't been as meaningful this decade. Part of it will be that he will turn 24 this season, so he's a bit older or at the same age as the players around him. Perhaps because he was undrafted, despite being the son of a former major leaguer.

 

???

 

He was a 5th round pick. The 165th overall player taken in the 2006 draft.

 

And he'll be 23 for almost his entire AA season (doesn't turn 24 until August)... which means he's on target age-wise for the league he'll be in. For example, there was only ONE position player on the Barons this year younger than Shelby will be.

Edited February 18, 2009 by scenario

[caulfield12]

For Shelby III, I meant out of high school.

 

Yes, he MIGHT be the best athlete (along with Jord. Danks) in our system right now. Big year for him. Let's hope he continues to progress and gives us yet another option from our system. At the very least, he could be yet another valuable trade "chip" for KW.

[Balta1701]

For Shelby III, I meant out of high school.

 

Yes, he MIGHT be the best athlete (along with Jord. Danks) in our system right now. Big year for him. Let's hope he continues to progress and gives us yet another option from our system. At the very least, he could be yet another valuable trade "chip" for KW.

In this economy, the value of those guys as trade chips is just going to keep going up too.

[iamshack]

In this economy, the value of those guys as trade chips is just going to keep going up too.

 

I have been saying for a year or two now, and I still believe it, that eventually the pendulum will swing back the other way and veteran certainty will become more valued as many of these prospects eventually bust out (as they always do). Perhaps this is the year it happens, as many solid veterans are (or were) having difficulty finding jobs at what was thought to be market value. The market always seems to trend too widely (and go overboard) on things of this nature, and I think either next year or the year after we will see a rapid correction (if not even an over-correction).

Edited February 18, 2009 by iamshack

[Pumpkin Escobar]

With Contreras, possibly Dye, and Thome coming off the books at the end of this season, even with raises for people and the shaky economy I think next year we'll be in a position to spend more than we were this year.

 

I agree with this. I am hoping that if we are out of it we can move these guys for solid prospects as I am very concerned about arbitration next year. If we are able to take notes from the Cabrera situation, it may be in our best interest to move our guys at the deadline. Hopefully we are in a position of adding players for a playoff run but if not, so be it.

 

Next offseason though. Not to get ahead of ourselves but since it was brought up, I completely agree that we'll have a lot of payroll flexibility and we'll be able to get discounts because of the economy. Off the top of my head some free agents I see us going after or would like to go after are:

 

Roberts

Figgins

Crawford (not sure though if he has a option off the top of my head)

Vlad

Holliday

Matsui

Winn

 

For pitching. I was talking about this with a buddy when we were discussing Bedards value and I do belive he is a FA. With Contreras coming off the books - I wouldnt mind taking a flier on him for half that or finding a guy like Lackey or Webb or something would be a big addition to this club. Especially if we see a regression from Danks and Floyd. Big insurance policy.

 

Anyways...just my thought on the comment above. Hopefully this season goes well but I think that next offseason may be a telling sign why we were less committed to making moves and strapped for cash.

 

[caulfield12]

I agree with this. I am hoping that if we are out of it we can move these guys for solid prospects as I am very concerned about arbitration next year. If we are able to take notes from the Cabrera situation, it may be in our best interest to move our guys at the deadline. Hopefully we are in a position of adding players for a playoff run but if not, so be it.

 

Next offseason though. Not to get ahead of ourselves but since it was brought up, I completely agree that we'll have a lot of payroll flexibility and we'll be able to get discounts because of the economy. Off the top of my head some free agents I see us going after or would like to go after are:

 

Roberts

Figgins

Crawford (not sure though if he has a option off the top of my head)

Vlad

Holliday

Matsui

Winn

 

For pitching. I was talking about this with a buddy when we were discussing Bedards value and I do belive he is a FA. With Contreras coming off the books - I wouldnt mind taking a flier on him for half that or finding a guy like Lackey or Webb or something would be a big addition to this club. Especially if we see a regression from Danks and Floyd. Big insurance policy.

 

Anyways...just my thought on the comment above. Hopefully this season goes well but I think that next offseason may be a telling sign why we were less committed to making moves and strapped for cash.

 

Crawford will have his option picked up. We definitely need some LH bats (internally, we have Brandon Allen and that's it in terms of power).

 

Some names we'll hear include Ankiel and Holliday (but both Boras clients)...Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado and maybe (although doubtful) Jason Bay. Hank Blalock might get some consideration too, if he stays healthy. I don't see Vladimir Guerrero as an option...think he will still be injury-prone, and he's not a left-handed DH to replace Jim Thome. Perhaps Aubrey Huff will be the conversation?

 

I'm sure Roberts, Figgins and Abreu will all be under consideration as well.

 

Both Lackey and Webb will be too expensive...although we will/should have some money to play around with, unless the economy completely collapses and our attendance sinks below 1.75 million. I guess anything's possible.

 

Bedard will be too expensive to bring aboard if he has another impressive season....and too risky for the price barring a Colon-esque contract.

Edited February 18, 2009 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

Scott Boras' top guys for the 2009-10 offseason: Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Madson. He's weak in the starting pitching category with Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood.

The group feels older than this year's. Players who will be under 30 in 2010: Omar Infante, Hank Blalock, Wily Mo Pena, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Madson.

John Lackey heads the starting pitchers, though he may sign an extension. After him it's Myers, unless Erik Bedard or Harden have huge, healthy years. Of course, there's always guys you don't see coming, like Ryan Dempster this year.

If you want a big bat, you're looking at whoever's left of Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Holliday, Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Aubrey Huff, and Jim Thome.

Forget about these guys, whose options will likely be exercised: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb.

 

from mlbtraderumors.com

 

I guess you can throw Abreu and maybe Dunn into the mix, although Dunn's desirability ranking took a dive somewhat with that curious contract from the Nationals.

 

Damon might make a lot of sense in LF on a one or two year deal, if it looks like he's got something left, isn't too costly, and CF is solidified already with Lilli or Owens, or JorDanks is ready. Don't want him in CF anymore.

 

[witesoxfan]

Damon might make a lot of sense in LF on a one or two year deal, if it looks like he's got something left, isn't too costly, and CF is solidified already with Lilli or Owens, or JorDanks is ready. Don't want him in CF anymore.

 

I have a pretty good feeling that Johnny Damon won't sign with the White Sox any time soon.

[ILMOU]

I have a pretty good feeling that Johnny Damon won't sign with the White Sox any time soon.

 

Boras client?

[ILMOU]

Boras client?

 

Whoops! I need to read more carefully.