So where is Al Qaeda at?

[southsider2k5]

So in my warped little mind, I got to thinking last night. Where the heck is Al Qaeda right now? Bear with me. We are in the midst of a huge financial crisis. If I am OBL or anyone else, how incredible would it be to strike US soil with a terror attack right now? The confidence in the system is at a modern low right now. Striking with an attack would send the country into a panic by my logic. If I can figure that out, I know AQ can. My question is why the hell haven't they done something? Are they that far reduced? Are we getting that good at following them? Are they waiting for something bigger?

 

What do you all think?

[HuskyCaucasian]

Well, i think the "core" is in Pakistan.

As for all the cells, I think the ongoing war on terror in Afghanistan has really splintered the structure. It's still there, but the ties are frayed.

[lostfan]

You know though, it's not that they're unaware or whatever, they're just not in the business of rushing plans.

[HuskyCaucasian]

You know though, it's not that they're unaware or whatever, they're just not in the business of rushing plans.

Correct. Large scale Al Qaeda attacks arent "hack jobs". They are meticulous and thought out. It can take years to plan something out.

[southsider2k5]

You know though, it's not that they're unaware or whatever, they're just not in the business of rushing plans.

 

Wouldn't it makes sense to alter those plans a bit to try and strike a death blow while your enemy is prone?

[kapkomet]

/returns from hiatus to make a point

 

Even a very small, poorly planned attack would have HUGE psychological impacts right now. However, it could also backfire because people would finally start paying attention to something else but what they are losing every day.

 

/leaves again

[lostfan]

Wouldn't it makes sense to alter those plans a bit to try and strike a death blow while your enemy is prone?

Depends. How do you define death blow in this circumstance? Some kind of Mumbai-style guerrilla attack?

[mr_genius]

I think the U.S. has really done a good job disrupting AQ organizations here. I give W some credit for this (dems spare me the rage, admit when things go right for once).

 

But I agree, now would be the prefect time for them to attack.

Edited March 3, 2009 by mr_genius

[lostfan]

I think the U.S. has really done a good job disrupting AQ organizations here. I give W some credit for this (dems spare me the rage, admit when things go right for once).

 

But I agree, now would be the prefect time for them to attack.

Yeah just because they haven't done anything doesn't mean they don't want to or haven't been trying. They've been failing.

[CanOfCorn]

I think there's two reasons why. One, AQ seems to dislike a lot of countries. They've made their point with the US...now it seems they are concentrating more on the other countries, some a little closer to home....

 

Two, this is a global recession/depression. We're kinda all in this together, right now. And I would think that the cash flow is down for even ridiculous things like AQ. I mean, c'mon, you know that they had their money in the markets...US or others. And none of them are performing.

 

Just my .02.

[southsider2k5]

Depends. How do you define death blow in this circumstance? Some kind of Mumbai-style guerrilla attack?

 

It could be anyone of a million things, but I think the central theme that would be most effective would be something that centered around commerce. I could see a Mumbai style attack on shopping malls, or banks, or something being cheap, easy, and deadly effective.

[lostfan]

Just to add something to the discussion, al-Qaida is to Islamic militancy as the KKK is to white supremacists. That is to say, it's only one organization out of many different types, even if it's the most well-known.

[lostfan]

It could be anyone of a million things, but I think the central theme that would be most effective would be something that centered around commerce. I could see a Mumbai style attack on shopping malls, or banks, or something being cheap, easy, and deadly effective.

Now, how would the logistics for such an attack work? Would a minor, down and dirty attack really be a deathblow? If not, does it help strategically?

 

Not saying it wouldn't work or anything, just throwing out ideas.

[southsider2k5]

Now, how would the logistics for such an attack work? Would a minor, down and dirty attack really be a deathblow? If not, does it help strategically?

 

Not saying it wouldn't work or anything, just throwing out ideas.

 

I'll be honest, I have no idea how logistics would work. None. My degree work was in economics, not "urban planning".

[Balta1701]

Now, how would the logistics for such an attack work? Would a minor, down and dirty attack really be a deathblow? If not, does it help strategically?

 

Not saying it wouldn't work or anything, just throwing out ideas.

Think about Israel during the various intifada's. Or Iraq or Afghanistan. The pinprick attacks might not do anything near the damage that a big event does, but they are a highly effective strategy if they're deployed.

 

Really, think about it, if you wanted to wage a long campaign of terror by say, taking bombs and dumping them in trashcans in public places like shopping centers or stadiums, what would stop you at this point? Or buying a heavy machine gun and opening up on a crowd?

 

The thing that has always struck me as odd about Al Qaeda is that despite the obviousness of that strategy, they haven't tried anything small scale. That leaves 2 possibilities, either the U.S. has gotten ridiculously good at intercepting these guys, even the individual ones, on the way in, which frankly I don't believe given all the other people who are able to enter this country and maneuver around weaponry, or otherwise, Small Attacks just don't fit in with their belief structure. I think it's the latter.

 

They're an apocalyptic group that believes the U.S. is going to collapse under its own weight of opposition to God and its decadence. They just aren't interested in waging an actual campaign of hurting people or hurting the economy, they want the singular event, gigantic, huge strikes because that is what they believe in.

[mr_genius]

Now, how would the logistics for such an attack work? Would a minor, down and dirty attack really be a deathblow? If not, does it help strategically?

 

Not saying it wouldn't work or anything, just throwing out ideas.

 

one person could do a lot of damage, i remember the 'dc sniper' case a while back and the 2 involved really had that region in a panic. now, imagine 30 dc sniper types across the country. people would be freaking out.

[lostfan]

Think about Israel during the various intifada's. Or Iraq or Afghanistan. The pinprick attacks might not do anything near the damage that a big event does, but they are a highly effective strategy if they're deployed.

 

Really, think about it, if you wanted to wage a long campaign of terror by say, taking bombs and dumping them in trashcans in public places like shopping centers or stadiums, what would stop you at this point? Or buying a heavy machine gun and opening up on a crowd?

 

The thing that has always struck me as odd about Al Qaeda is that despite the obviousness of that strategy, they haven't tried anything small scale. That leaves 2 possibilities, either the U.S. has gotten ridiculously good at intercepting these guys, even the individual ones, on the way in, which frankly I don't believe given all the other people who are able to enter this country and maneuver around weaponry, or otherwise, Small Attacks just don't fit in with their belief structure. I think it's the latter.

 

They're an apocalyptic group that believes the U.S. is going to collapse under its own weight of opposition to God and its decadence. They just aren't interested in waging an actual campaign of hurting people or hurting the economy, they want the singular event, gigantic, huge strikes because that is what they believe in.

At least up until the present, that's been correct. Well that and along with the fact that they've been focused on overseas too. They don't like to settle for either half-assed plans, or smaller attacks, they want their attacks to be large and devastating.

[DBAHO]

Well they may have been busy today anyways;

 

TERRORISTS killed eight people and sent shockwaves through world cricket after opening fire on the Sri Lankan Test team in Pakistan.

 

Some of the world's best players were injured in the Lahore attack, which changed the face of cricket forever.

 

Masked gunmen attacked the team bus near the Gaddafi Stadium with rockets, hand grenades and automatic weapons, triggering a 25-minute gun battle.

 

Two civilians and six police officers who were guarding the players were killed as the team arrived for the third day of the second Test.

 

Star batsman Thilan Samaraweera and assistant coach Paul Farbrace were kept in hospital, although their injuries were not believed to be life-threatening.

 

Captain Mahela Jayawardene, vice-captain Kumar Sangakkara, Tharanga Paranavitana, Thilina Thushara and Ajantha Mendis suffered minor injuries.

 

Samaraweera and Paranavitana were on stretchers when the team was lifted out by Pakistani air force helicopters.

 

Sri Lanka immediately abandoned the tour and doubts were raised about the 2011 World Cup in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

 

Australia has not toured Pakistan for more than a decade because of security fears, and the International Cricket Council postponed the Champions Trophy last year when other nations refused to visit the troubled nation.

 

Yesterday's attack is likely to turn Pakistan into an even greater cricketing outcast, with international matches unlikely to resume there for many years - if ever.

 

Australia earlier this month forced Pakistan to reschedule a one-day series to the neutral venues of Dubai and Abu Dhabi in April-May.

 

Australian skipper Ricky Ponting said he had spoken to the Sri Lankan team and expressed his shock at the attack.

 

"An act of violence like this is a terrible thing, and when it involves those who are part of our cricketing family, players the world over are affected," he said.

 

"We hope that those who have been injured in these attacks can make a full and quick recovery and return to representing their country."

 

Pakistan coach Intikhab Alam said his team escaped only because they left their hotel five minutes late.

 

Sangakkara gave a graphic description of the attack on Adelaide radio last night.

 

"Suddenly we heard a few sounds like firecrackers, and then suddenly everyone just said hit the deck because someone is shooting," the world's No. 3 batsman said.

 

"We just hit the floor of the bus and stayed there.

 

"We heard bullets hitting the bus and a few explosions but we had an amazing driver who just kept driving . . . to the ground, and that's probably what saved us.

 

"Thilan (Samaraweera) has a shrapnel wound in his leg, but he is fine. (Tharanga) Paranavitana had shrapnel in his chest, but thank God it was just on the surface.

 

"I had shrapnel injuries in my shoulder, but they have all been removed and are OK. Ajantha (Mendis) had shrapnel in his neck and scalp."

 

Australian freelance cameraman Tony Bennett said people inside the stadium heard explosions followed by bursts of machine-gun fire.

 

"Next thing we knew, the Sri Lankan team bus rolls up being sprayed by bullets. Players were getting carried into the dressing room."

 

Lahore police chief Habib-ur Rehman said the attackers "appeared to be well-trained terrorists. They came on rickshaws". He gave no details of the fate of the estimated 12 gunmen.

[LittleHurt05]

i always that a sporting event would be a target for them, cause of the sheer amount of people there and comfort level people have there and with sports in general...

 

didn't think attacking an actual sports team before a game would be a plan concocted...

[NorthSideSox72]

i always that a sporting event would be a target for them, cause of the sheer amount of people there and comfort level people have there and with sports in general...

For anyone who hasn't yet, I recommend reading Tom Clancy's last good book (before his writing took a serious nosedive): The Sum of All Fears.

 

[southsider2k5]

At least up until the present, that's been correct. Well that and along with the fact that they've been focused on overseas too. They don't like to settle for either half-assed plans, or smaller attacks, they want their attacks to be large and devastating.

 

My thought is this. How large and devastating would an attack be that shook our financial or commerce system right now? These institutions are hanging by a thread as it is, it wouldn't take much to do huge damage. You could literally disrupt the American way of life if you attack was effective enough, and you wouldn't have to kill many American's to do it. Think about how much money we spent after 9-11 to make America safe again, even if you discount the wars in Iraq and Afganistan. We couldn't do that again because that money has already been spent for all of these rescues and the stimulus plan. Think of the stock market sell off after 9-11, what would an event like that do to an already shaken financial sector? Retail of all shapes and sizes is in the toilet. If they attacked malls, how many jobs could be lost if people were afraid to go shopping, or to go out and eat?

 

I guess it depends on what you mean by "large and devastating attacks". Ending the American way of life would be awful devastating to our standing in the world, that's for sure.

[Balta1701]

My thought is this. How large and devastating would an attack be that shook our financial or commerce system right now? These institutions are hanging by a thread as it is, it wouldn't take much to do huge damage. You could literally disrupt the American way of life if you attack was effective enough, and you wouldn't have to kill many American's to do it. Think about how much money we spent after 9-11 to make America safe again, even if you discount the wars in Iraq and Afganistan. We couldn't do that again because that money has already been spent for all of these rescues and the stimulus plan. Think of the stock market sell off after 9-11, what would an event like that do to an already shaken financial sector? Retail of all shapes and sizes is in the toilet. If they attacked malls, how many jobs could be lost if people were afraid to go shopping, or to go out and eat?

 

I guess it depends on what you mean by "large and devastating attacks". Ending the American way of life would be awful devastating to our standing in the world, that's for sure.

You're making a point that we all understand but that, thankfully, for some reason they don't seem to get it. They haven't gotten it yet and hopefully they still won't.

[lostfan]

You're making a point that we all understand but that, thankfully, for some reason they don't seem to get it. They haven't gotten it yet and hopefully they still won't.

This, and that their behavior and their messages have been consistent for a few years. Why that hasn't changed, I don't know.

[Soxbadger]

Attacks also have a tendency to bring people together in times of great peril.

 

Nothing gets people more motivated than having an "enemy."

 

 

[DukeNukeEm]

lostfan can probably tell me how accurate this is, but my understanding is these AQ guys cant make a cell phone call without a bunker buster getting crammed 3 feet up their ass.

Edited March 3, 2009 by DukeNukeEm