Swisher Trade Revisited (My how times have changed)

[almagest]

Um, as much as I hate it, the Aramis/Lofton trade for crap was the best trade in last 10 years. Aramis is going to end up with HOF numbers if he plays another 8 seasons or so.

Really? A guy with a career OPS+ of 113? He'll also be 38 by that point. I doubt he'll stay effective that long, especially since his slugging percentage has gone down every year since 2004.

[santo=dorf]

So because of one offseason that affected the economy, the Sox selling low on Swisher after paying pretty high for him is one of KW's best moves? If that's the case I guess Joe Contreras' extension is one of the worst ever along with Konerko's 5 year deal, and Dye's $12 million salary that the Sox were handcuffed with.

[sircaffey]

So because of one offseason that affected the economy, the Sox selling low on Swisher after paying pretty high for him is one of KW's best moves? If that's the case I guess Joe Contreras' extension is one of the worst ever along with Konerko's 5 year deal, and Dye's $12 million salary that the Sox were handcuffed with.

 

^^^

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

A lot has changed in the 2.5 months since the White Sox dealt away Nick Swisher. The entire scope of economics in the game and player value has been completely flipped...

 

First, let's look over Swisher's contract, which at the time we acquired him seemed like a bargain. Numbers are from mlb4u.

 

Nick Swisher's Contract

 

2009: $5.3 million

2010: $6.75 million

2011: $9 million (limited No-Trade clause 6 teams)

2012: $10.25 million (limited No-Trade clause 6 teams), $1 million buyout.

 

 

Wow. Don't those numbers look a bit different now? Orlando Hudson and Bobby Abreu make less than Swisher this year alone.

 

Now let's look we received in return for the pink-bearded one, simply from the perspective of filling holes on our roster.

 

Marquez: I know it's spring, but the kid does look like he has a big-league future at least close to what was originally projected.

Betemit: At worst its obvious he's going to be a decent utility player who can crush right-handed hitting. Vs. lefties, pretty useless, but the guy brings a legitimate bat that pitchers have to at least worry about a bit.

Nunez: Future reliever maybe, not really a big deal at this point.

 

Combined 2009 salaries

$1.3 million + league minimum if Marquez makes the big club.

 

 

Conclusion

This might be one of the best trades of Kenny Williams' career. It was well-known that the White Sox were planning ahead heading into this economic crisis, and they were setting themselves up for things to change in a big way. If Kenny doesn't trade Swisher, he'd be pretty much untradeable right now, with an albatross of a contract in his future.

 

Instead, the White Sox got a guy in Marquez who will be the first man called upon once the inevitable Bartolo Colon strained fat DL stint is upon us, a guy in Betemit who will get a ton of at-bats against right handers, and a piece for the farm in Nunez. Meanwhile, the Yankees have the big question mark of Nick Swisher. Sure, Swish could do well, but regardless, prices himself out of his worth, in my opinion. The landscape of MLB has changed, and KW having the vision to get rid of Swish, let alone get anything in return, was one of the savviest moves I've ever seen.

That's only a bad contract if Swisher plays as bad or worse in New York as he did here. The $1M buyout in 2012 makes a good contract until proven otherwise. If that was guaranteed then it would be a different story.

 

Do not let the salaries to OC, Hudson, and Abreu fool you. Those are not market value. If those players had smaller demands going into the offseason they'd have gotten larger guaranteed contracts for more years. Teams were given lower budgets than they had anticipated so they had to take those guys out of their plans and meet their budgets in other ways.

 

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2...ree-agents.html

 

This list hasn't been updated, but it's mostly correct in terms of the players hitting FA after this season. Look at that list and you're going to see a lot of big salaries coming off the books for teams. Most of those players will be back on much lighter salaries, some probably even on minor league deals. All that bad contract money is going to represent (1) savings for teams who need to save, and (2) more money for players who are actually deserving of that money.

 

Maybe there aren't going to be teams willing to pay more than $6-8M/year for a guy like Hudson, but he's not going to be signing for $3.38M guaranteed (unless he's injured or something). That trend should continue as the economy worsens, where only the good players get good money and deals usually fall into the 1-3 year range. Every year that goes by, bad contracts will be cycled out and replaced with friendlier deals. I suspect a lot less Borass clients as well. Borass had yet another bad year for his non-superstar clients.

 

BTW, if KW and the Sox knew all this was coming, why didn't they eat a couple million of Dye's contract and make that deal for Bailey and prospects? Because it's very possible that the Sox take the $1M buyout on Dye's deal after the season and get nothing. Given all the Figgins and Hudson rumors leading into the winter, I think it's very possible that Kenny had certain plans to say trade Javy, let Griffey, OC, Crede, etc. come off the books, then bring in Hudson and Figgins as well if possible. But then JR gave him a pessimistic budget and he changed course. I think Kenny just tried to assemble a good, winning team while staying within his budget. I don't think he freaked out about salary and tried to dump guys, because had that happened Dye would be in camp with the Reds or Rays right now.

 

The reason Swisher was traded was because he sucked ass and on top of that he couldn't play CF. If you get replaced down the stretch of a playoff run by Dewayne Wise and if you also make more than $1M in salary, then it's time to show your ass the door. Also, Viciedo was a more talented player and the Sox weren't going to pass on him in order to keep Mr. Standthereandlookatstrikethree.

 

*Edit: One other point: most of what goes on when it comes to discussions regarding trades, free agency, etc. is not reported until things are pretty advanced, and a lot of what is said is also bulls*** made up by radio hosts and those evil bloggers Kenny despises. Before anyone feels sorry for OC, Hudson, and Abreu, let's consider that it's highly probable that other teams made offers that were far more lucrative than what those players eventually signed for, but the players themselves, or their agents, turned those deals down. Look at how much money Varitek lost because he listened to Borass and didn't take arb, ditto with Jon Garland and his agent. None of us know what the initial exploratory offers were or what sort of comprise there could have been had these guys not been seeking s*** like 4 yr/$60M or whatever there demands were.

Edited March 7, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[bschmaranz]

I dunno, if things continue progressing, getting John Danks for Brandon McCarthy is right up there...

 

Then there's Mark Bell in a three-way deal landing Marty Havlat.

 

While the Danks deal may take the cake, time will tell, I think the deals that got us Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras should be on top of the list for the time being.

[Whitewashed in '05]

I in no way agree with him but Murph dubbed it the best Chicago trade of the last 10 years.

if he was serious thats a pretty stupid comment. i mean not that marquez wont ever become anything but he hasnt done squat at the major league level. until he does, basically any deal kw has made that hasnt backfired is better.

[iWiN4PreP]

I agree tho, this swisher trade looking back, was alot better looking now, then it was long ago

[4 points]

I don't know... salary dumps are pretty easy deals to make when you're one of the few contending teams with salary space and a team like the Pirates is desperate.

 

That deal was a no brainer.

 

Are you mentaly challenged? You call the Ramirez deal a salary dump no brainer, and in the same breath, laud the Swisher deal, which in fact, was a salary dump. IMHO, the best trade in Chicago baseball over the last 30 years, was the Sandberg deal, which was no effin salary dump. But, because it`s the Cubs, I wait in anticipation of another 2 year old response.

[WhiteSoxfan1986]

I'm not saying I hate the trade, but people need to remember we also gave up Kaneoka Texeira in the trade. BA had the guy as the 19th best prospect in the Carolina League where he dominated (0.93 ERA). He could have helped our pen this year.

[caulfield12]

Possibly, but maybe KW liked Nunez a lot better...so let's say the two minor league relievers are an even swap, it makes the deal Swisher for Marquez, Betemit and Viciedo, essentially.

 

That's the other angle that hasn't been raised, and the way KW has consistently presented it this offseason.

 

I guess it could have been Hudson instead of Viciedo and Colon, but we'll never know for sure...the market sure turned against Hudson...I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers beat everyone, if they could get strong enough starting pitching and Furcal stays healthy.

[wsgdf_2]

Are you mentaly challenged? You call the Ramirez deal a salary dump no brainer, and in the same breath, laud the Swisher deal, which in fact, was a salary dump. IMHO, the best trade in Chicago baseball over the last 30 years, was the Sandberg deal, which was no effin salary dump. But, because it`s the Cubs, I wait in anticipation of another 2 year old response.

 

 

Whoa, I actually I haven't said anything about the Swisher deal.

 

By the way, I'm not one to usually call people out on spelling mistakes, but come on:

 

'mentaly challenged'

 

The irony is way too rich there genius.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Well, no matter how we "spin" it, as Viciedo/Marquez for Swisher, it's going to be remembered for how Swisher and Marquez do respectfully...and perhaps for continued CF problems in Chicago as well.

Edited March 7, 2009 by caulfield12

[GreatScott82]

Hey Steve... i love it when you analyze!

 

I couldn't agree more. At the time it didn't look like a really good deal, but now that we all can see it as a financial stand point- it makes perfect sense. Kenny is being extremely smart. He is keeping this team competitive and developing young talent while shedding payroll at the same time. After this season the team will gain ~$33-$45 million in salary departures (pending on what they do with Dye's option). The only 3 players of significance that will be arbitration eligable are CQ, Danks and Floyd. I could see Danks and Floyd getting Jenks type money, while CQ will likely get 7-8 million pending on his 2009 results.

 

Regardless, KW will be in a great possition in the next 2 offseasons to make a splash in the free agent market...

Edited March 7, 2009 by GreatScott82

[SouthsideDon48]

When the original Sweeney/DLS/Gio trade for Swisher occurred, I thought we robbed Oakland blind. I was never really impressed with Sweeney, I thought he was more of an overrated AAAA player, DLS was really a prospect as best, and later on in the 2008 season we saw how much Gio struggled with pitching at the major league level, he got rocked by the Sox.

 

Then when the Sox traded Swisher to the Yankees, I thought we pretty much got a good batch of players that were a fair return for Swisher and better than the original Sweeney/DLS/Gio package we gave up for Swisher.

 

I think Wilson Betemit is more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers as a utility man at the major league level as opposed to Ryan Sweeney. Betemit will be a solid reserve for years to come and he was once a top prospect as well.

 

Verdict: Betemit>Sweeney

 

When it comes to Gio and Marquez, I think Gio's stuff is too electric. When I saw Gio in action last year, he looked like he couldn't find the strike zone. As for Marquez, I think he's currently surpassing Gio in terms of development, if he didn't already. When the trade where Swisher was sent to the Yankees, I was much more welcoming of the idea of taking a chance on Marquez than I was at the idea of ever getting Gio back.

 

Verdict: Marquez>Gio

 

And now when it comes to DLS and Nunez, while these two guys are probably the biggest question marks in both trades, I think DLS is too much of an injury risk from everything I've read about him. DLS also appeared to me that he might have great stuff but still undeveloped. Now with Nunez, I was originally unsure of him, which sort of made me consider DLS and Nunez to be equal in comparing each other, but after seeing him in that spring training game against the Cubs, I REALLY like his delivery, his aggressiveness in attacking the strike zone, and his mound presence. Sure it may be a small sample size in gathering an opinion from, but...

 

Verdict: Nunez=DLS ...with a slight edge currently going to Nunez.

[Balta1701]

Well, no matter how we "spin" it, as Viciedo/Marquez for Swisher, it's going to be remembered for how Swisher and Marquez to respectfully...and perhaps for continued CF problems in Chicago as well.

You're saying that we didn't have CF problems WHILE Nick Swisher was here?

[caulfield12]

You're saying that we didn't have CF problems WHILE Nick Swisher was here?

 

 

It has been a problem for sure since Rowand's 2004 season. We haven't had above MLB average production (offensively and defensively) since then from that position.

 

Heck, I'll go all the way back to Lance Johnson to the last time we had a CFer I really liked...or Mike Cameron, warts and all. Lofton was good for six weeks in 2002.

 

We've run through Jeremy Reed, Chris B. Young, Anthony Webster, Rowand, Ryan Sweeney, etc. One of the biggest miscalculations KW ever made was thinking Brian Anderson would be ready in 2006. Whatever he was doing in the minors (and he put up some good seasons statistically), they should have realized his swing has significant holes that would be exposed, especially to breaking balls and sliders low and away.

 

Not only that, but he's a horrible players in terms of fundamentals and execution...hitting the cutoff man, bunting, baserunning (sometimes), hitting to the opposite field, shortening up his swing for contact (it seems like he's still taking some god-awful cuts up there that leave him with no chance of even hitting the ball). He's just a very talented athlete right now at age 26 still trying to figure out how to play. Like Borchard, he'll hit some balls that make you think he's a natural...or when he got Felix Hernandez twice out in Seattle, where for some mysterious reason 75% of his homers come from (of all MLB parks!). When you compare him at the plate with the presence of a Beckham or even Viciedo, it's like night and day. With Uribe gone, he's the batter that opposing pitchers would MOST want to face in our line-up, it's not even close for 2nd place at this point. Owens might at least put some pressure on the defense with the idea he will bunt or force the infield to make a play...most of the time the defense can just sit back on their heels with Anderson at the plate.

Edited March 7, 2009 by caulfield12

[sircaffey]

I will gladly swap Marquez, Betemit, and Nunez for Gio, Sweeney, and DLS. In a heartbeat.

[Kalapse]

It has been a problem for sure since Rowand's 2004 season. We haven't had above MLB average production (offensively and defensively) since then from that position.

 

Heck, I'll go all the way back to Lance Johnson to the last time we had a CFer I really liked...or Mike Cameron, warts and all. Lofton was good for six weeks in 2002.

 

We've run through Jeremy Reed, Chris B. Young, Anthony Webster, Rowand, Ryan Sweeney, etc. One of the biggest miscalculations KW ever made was thinking Brian Anderson would be ready in 2006. Whatever he was doing in the minors (and he put up some good seasons statistically), they should have realized his swing has significant holes that would be exposed, especially to breaking balls and sliders low and away.

Rowand was well above average on both sides of the ball in '04 and given how many runs he saved with his glove in '05 (best defensive CF in the AL that year) I'd say he was an above average contributor. I don't really understand your definition of "run through" seeing as how Jeremy Reed never played for the White Sox, Chris Young never made it past Birmingham and Anthony Webster never made it above A ball with the White Sox. Perhaps you're just including anyone who was at one time or another a top 10 prospect over the past 7 years though that hardly seems apt.

[scenario]

I don't really understand your definition of "run through" seeing as how Jeremy Reed never played for the White Sox, Chris Young never made it past Birmingham and Anthony Webster never made it above A ball with the White Sox. Perhaps you're just including anyone who was at one time or another a top 10 prospect over the past 7 years though that hardly seems apt.

 

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

Also, Ryan Sweeney played a career total of 10 games (26 at-bats) as a CF for the WhiteSox, most in garbage time or as an injury fill-in.

 

Not sure that should even make the cut for players we 'tried out' at the position.

 

The Sox targeted him for RF, not CF.

Edited March 7, 2009 by scenario

[lostfan]

It has been a problem for sure since Rowand's 2004 season. We haven't had above MLB average production (offensively and defensively) since then from that position.

 

Heck, I'll go all the way back to Lance Johnson to the last time we had a CFer I really liked...or Mike Cameron, warts and all. Lofton was good for six weeks in 2002.

 

We've run through Jeremy Reed, Chris B. Young, Anthony Webster, Rowand, Ryan Sweeney, etc. One of the biggest miscalculations KW ever made was thinking Brian Anderson would be ready in 2006. Whatever he was doing in the minors (and he put up some good seasons statistically), they should have realized his swing has significant holes that would be exposed, especially to breaking balls and sliders low and away.

 

Not only that, but he's a horrible players in terms of fundamentals and execution...hitting the cutoff man, bunting, baserunning (sometimes), hitting to the opposite field, shortening up his swing for contact (it seems like he's still taking some god-awful cuts up there that leave him with no chance of even hitting the ball). He's just a very talented athlete right now at age 26 still trying to figure out how to play. Like Borchard, he'll hit some balls that make you think he's a natural...or when he got Felix Hernandez twice out in Seattle, where for some mysterious reason 75% of his homers come from (of all MLB parks!). When you compare him at the plate with the presence of a Beckham or even Viciedo, it's like night and day. With Uribe gone, he's the batter that opposing pitchers would MOST want to face in our line-up, it's not even close for 2nd place at this point. Owens might at least put some pressure on the defense with the idea he will bunt or force the infield to make a play...most of the time the defense can just sit back on their heels with Anderson at the plate.

That's not on Kenny Williams. At his level, he should be able to rely on the people who see him every day to give him accurate information or to correct that early on before it becomes a problem. Clearly that didn't happen and nobody noticed until he had been in MLB for half a season already.

[BearSox]

When the original Sweeney/DLS/Gio trade for Swisher occurred, I thought we robbed Oakland blind. I was never really impressed with Sweeney, I thought he was more of an overrated AAAA player, DLS was really a prospect as best, and later on in the 2008 season we saw how much Gio struggled with pitching at the major league level, he got rocked by the Sox.

 

Then when the Sox traded Swisher to the Yankees, I thought we pretty much got a good batch of players that were a fair return for Swisher and better than the original Sweeney/DLS/Gio package we gave up for Swisher.

 

I think Wilson Betemit is more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers as a utility man at the major league level as opposed to Ryan Sweeney. Betemit will be a solid reserve for years to come and he was once a top prospect as well.

 

Verdict: Betemit>Sweeney

 

When it comes to Gio and Marquez, I think Gio's stuff is too electric. When I saw Gio in action last year, he looked like he couldn't find the strike zone. As for Marquez, I think he's currently surpassing Gio in terms of development, if he didn't already. When the trade where Swisher was sent to the Yankees, I was much more welcoming of the idea of taking a chance on Marquez than I was at the idea of ever getting Gio back.

 

Verdict: Marquez>Gio

 

And now when it comes to DLS and Nunez, while these two guys are probably the biggest question marks in both trades, I think DLS is too much of an injury risk from everything I've read about him. DLS also appeared to me that he might have great stuff but still undeveloped. Now with Nunez, I was originally unsure of him, which sort of made me consider DLS and Nunez to be equal in comparing each other, but after seeing him in that spring training game against the Cubs, I REALLY like his delivery, his aggressiveness in attacking the strike zone, and his mound presence. Sure it may be a small sample size in gathering an opinion from, but...

 

Verdict: Nunez=DLS ...with a slight edge currently going to Nunez.

You're insane.

 

I'm glad we finally got rid of Swisher, but to actually say Betemit, Marquez, and Nunez is better then Swisher, Gio, and DLS, you're crazy.

 

There's no secret I'm a Sweeney fan, but to actually say Betemit is better??? I like Betemit, he's a solid utility infielder and a decent hitter, but to actually prefer him over Sweeney? With Sweeney, you're talking about at the least a very solid outfielder. If we had Sweeney right now, you're talking about a solid option in CF. How in the world is a utility infielder greater then a starting CF, regardless of who?

 

Then you say Marquez is better then Gio. That's pretty silly as well. Marquez seems like at best a 4th or 5th starter and a poor mans Jon Garland (and Garland ain't all that expensive to begin with). Gio at least has potential to be more then a 4th and 5th, and is still a bit younger, not to mention his stuff is MUCH better.

 

Then finally, DLS = Nunez? DLS has more potential then anyone of the 6 players. If healthy and in a bullpen role, he can thrive. Nunez might be a decent bullpen reliever, but he isn't worth the potential of DLS.

 

We got a good haul for Swisher from the Yankees, but what we gave up to get Swisher in the first place was a ransom for the A's.

[GoodAsGould]

You're insane.

 

I'm glad we finally got rid of Swisher, but to actually say Betemit, Marquez, and Nunez is better then Swisher, Gio, and DLS, you're crazy.

 

There's no secret I'm a Sweeney fan, but to actually say Betemit is better??? I like Betemit, he's a solid utility infielder and a decent hitter, but to actually prefer him over Sweeney? With Sweeney, you're talking about at the least a very solid outfielder. If we had Sweeney right now, you're talking about a solid option in CF. How in the world is a utility infielder greater then a starting CF, regardless of who?

 

Then you say Marquez is better then Gio. That's pretty silly as well. Marquez seems like at best a 4th or 5th starter and a poor mans Jon Garland (and Garland ain't all that expensive to begin with). Gio at least has potential to be more then a 4th and 5th, and is still a bit younger, not to mention his stuff is MUCH better.

 

Then finally, DLS = Nunez? DLS has more potential then anyone of the 6 players. If healthy and in a bullpen role, he can thrive. Nunez might be a decent bullpen reliever, but he isn't worth the potential of DLS.

 

We got a good haul for Swisher from the Yankees, but what we gave up to get Swisher in the first place was a ransom for the A's.

 

Ok first off you dont know a thing about DLS or Nunez, so not even going to discuss that. Gio has a better curve thats about it, he got blasted in bigs last season and its mostly thought because of his frame he will end up in the bullpen. And Sweeney, he hit for a decent enough avg and whatnot, but his OPS was in the low 700's. Brian Anderson can match that and give you a ton better defense as well. Betemit has hit double the amount of HR's as Sweeney in half the amount of ab's before.

Edited March 7, 2009 by SoxFan101

[sircaffey]

Ok first off you dont know a thing about DLS or Nunez, so not even going to discuss that. Gio has a better curve thats about it, he got blasted in bigs last season and its mostly thought because of his frame he will end up in the bullpen. And Sweeney, he hit for a decent enough avg and whatnot, but his OPS was in the low 700's. Brian Anderson can match that and give you a ton better defense as well. Betemit has hit double the amount of HR's as Sweeney in half the amount of ab's before.

 

Gio's first 30 innings of ML ball. Sweeney also hit .307 vs RHP with a .798 OPS as well. Not to mention away from OAK, he hit considerably better, not surprisingly. Gio and Sweeney are the two best players of the bunch without a doubt.

[BearSox]

Ok first off you dont know a thing about DLS or Nunez, so not even going to discuss that. Gio has a better curve thats about it, he got blasted in bigs last season and its mostly thought because of his frame he will end up in the bullpen. And Sweeney, he hit for a decent enough avg and whatnot, but his OPS was in the low 700's. Brian Anderson can match that and give you a ton better defense as well. Betemit has hit double the amount of HR's as Sweeney in half the amount of ab's before.

I saw DLS pitch and if Nunez's stuff is even comparable to DLS's, then damn the Yankees are stupid for trading him. And from the little of Nunez I have seen this spring, he doesn't compare to DLS. That isn't to say he might not be a decent reliever, but you get DLS healthy and keep him healthy in a bullpen role, and you're talking about potentially a dominant SU man and potential closer. Now for all we know DLS will never be the same after TJ, but I'd still take his potential over Nunez, any day of the week.

 

Gio got "blasted" but that was in a CUP OF COFFEE in the bigs. Lol, remember when Floyd got blasted with his first stint with the White Sox? Take his stats from last year with a grain of salt. And the concerns about Gio's frame aren't that he'd have to move to the pen, but how long he will last as a starter. Right now the biggest concern with Gio is his control. And Gio has much better stuff. The only pitch Marquez has on Gio is his sinking fastball.

 

And Sweeney, in his rookie season (which was sidetracked w/ injuries) showed he was a competent hitter. Something Anderson still has not been able to show. He had a very solid rookie season and there is no reason to think why he won't improve. Sweeney has a much more refined swing and approach at the plate while Anderson still has plenty of holes in his swing and approach. Anderson's also the better defender in CF, but Sweeney is decent out there as well. Also, a platoon of Sweeney and Anderson in center sounds A TON better then any other option we have right now. However, this does remind me of how much we could have used Cunningham right now. KW really put all his money on Anderson.

[witesoxfan]

Well, no matter how we "spin" it, as Viciedo/Marquez for Swisher, it's going to be remembered for how Swisher and Marquez do respectfully...and perhaps for continued CF problems in Chicago as well.

 

Not necessarily. People don't remember the Podsednik and Vizcaino for Lee trade solely because of those players involved, but because of the money it saved, which allowed the Sox to sign more players that filled more holes. On the surface, the Brewers destroyed the Sox in the trade itself, but no White Sox fans give a crap.