Jon Heyman on Appreciating KW, Sox

[LittleHurt05]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...iams/index.html

 

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Like his team, White Sox general manager Ken Williams is routinely underrated. He's one of the best GMs in the game, though listings of the great current GMs usually exclude him.

 

Williams and his team aren't exactly media darlings. They are the second team in the second city, and treated as such. But it's more than just geography or history or lovability.

 

No one has written a book on the White Sox's style, though they certainly have one of their own. They are never the chic pick. Last year they finished first in a tight, tough American League Central. But now, in some cases, they're a last-place pick.

 

"People don't really understand our way, our method," Williams said.

 

As he's talking, Williams is doing what he does, which is perusing the talent that's out on the back fields here. And by the way, he likes what he sees very much.

 

Yet, other people are looking at the payroll cut from $111 million to $96 million, and uncertainties at second base, third base, center field, plus two spots in the rotation, and are picking the White Sox to fall to the bottom of the AL Central.

 

Although Williams -- whose 59 trades involving 157 major league players is more than any other GM during his tenure -- has a history of good deals, and got Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez in trades and signings that can only be considered superb, the doubters still far outnumber the believers. And although Williams' White Sox have the best record in their division over the past four years -- winning two division titles and a World Series in that time -- the doubters still far outnumber the believers.

 

I'm not sure whether this means anything, but it's interesting to note that while their co-tenant at the beautiful new Camelback Ranch, the P.R.-driven Dodgers, let everyone in, the White Sox's side has fort-like qualities, such as the tunnel from the clubhouse to the practice fields.

 

"We need to take a Promotions 101 class," said Williams. "It's our fault. We don't let too much of the outside world in. It's like a fraternity."

 

As for what the Sox are all about, Williams said, "We've done a lousy job of articulating it to the general public."

 

No surprise -- hardly anyone outside of the Sox's inner circle seems to like the Sox again. Regardless of whether it bothers Williams, it certainly doesn't affect his opinion.

 

"We know what we've got," Williams said. "We've got a chance to win a division. And if you've got a chance to win a division, you've got a chance to win a World Series."

 

Most folks predicted the White Sox wouldn't make the playoffs last year, and they wound up winning a tight, competitive AL Central. Same thing this year. Most see them as a third- or fourth-place finisher, if not dead last.

 

The vaunted Baseball Prospectus picks the Sox dead last, though with an explanation. The smart fellows at BP explain that they routinely underestimate what Williams and Co. do because they use numerical formulas while the Sox's front office has its own brand of magic.

 

That's a nice bouquet. But it's still last.

 

Putting aside his baseball picks, BP star Nate Silver is actually a favorite in Chicago's front office since he correctly predicted that noted White Sox fan Barack Obama (an acquaintance of Williams' and others in the Sox front office) would win the White House. Silver got quite a sterling reputation after nailing the presidential election, but he isn't perfect, as one White Sox person noted. "I hear his Oscar picks [stunk]," that person said with a laugh.

 

BP has been a pretty good baseball predictor, as well, but regularly underestimates the Sox; by an average of 8 1/2 wins a year, it turns out. Contrary to what others believe, the Stanford man Williams says they do look at SABRmetrics (and even goes so far as to point out his SABRmetrics guy, Dan Fabian). But they go with their eyes and their gut and their heart more than just the raw numbers. And that doesn't compute for some prognosticators.

 

The Sox, in fact, seem to specialize in players with bad stats who would qualify as "reclamation projects." Jose Contreras, who's months ahead of projections, and Bartolo Colon are the clear stars of camp so far and appear ready to make the Opening Day roster as the Nos. 4 and 5 starters (over youngsters Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez).

 

People in the game respect the Sox's way much more than outsiders do, and they do remark how the White Sox front office is as tight-knit as they come. "One thing about all the White Sox people, they all seem to take pride in being with that team," one AL general manager said, attributing that to the organization's two biggest personalities and leading men, manager Ozzie Guillen and Williams.

 

"Every day, every night, we're just kind of hanging out," Williams said. "Underneath all the layers of fun -- and Ozzie -- is a very structured way of doing things. It's a structured business model ... but only to a point."

 

Others don't see the structure. They see Guillen's goofy facade (on this day, he was excitedly commenting on the garb of fans, the managing of Venezuela's Luis Sojo and anything else that might come up that has nothing to do with the Sox) and Williams' tempestuousness and wrongly assume they're just guessing.

 

Out here on the back field, Williams is swiveling his head, enjoying the exploits and engaging in a rare bit of promotion. Outsiders may see holes at second base, third base and center field. But Williams sees strength at least at second and third.

 

"We've got too many infielders," he said. "We don't know what to do with all of them."

 

Everyone at second has been superb this spring, including Chris Getz and Jayson Nix, and everyone here will tell you Getz is the favorite. But Williams, who'll consider thinking outside any box, says they've been talking a lot about No. 1 draft choice Gordon Beckham, who's tearing up the Cactus League. "Beckham's trying his best to kind of screw up all these plans," Williams said.

 

The White Sox have youngsters all over these back fields who can play, according to Williams. If anyone's down on Josh Fields at third, it's not Williams. "He's going to have a good year now that he can feel both his legs," Williams said of the young player who had two surgeries on the same knee last year.

 

Williams actually envisions one of the best infields in baseball, and maybe the best shortstop. About Alexei Ramirez, Williams said, "I've never seen anyone who can play every position, and play it at Gold Glove caliber. He never played second base before last year, and he made plays I've never seen made."

 

Center field is a spot where Williams is a little less certain, though. DeWayne Wise, Brian Anderson and Jerry Owens are battling it out there.

 

"That's the only position where you might say, 'We'll see what happens,' " Williams said.

 

You can claim this is just talk. But the reality is, the Sox have outplayed their division over the past several years. And Williams has out-thought many of his competitors.

 

His trades this winter already look better than when he made them, as offloading $44 million in contracts (both Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher have $22 million remaining) seems prescient now in these brutal economic conditions. The Swisher trade saved them $4 million for 2009, which was exactly the signing bonus they gave hotshot 20-year-old Cuban import Dayan Viciedo, who's already ready to hit in the bigs.

 

Swisher hit .219 last year, but the stat people say he was especially unlucky. The Sox don't seem so sure, as one other Sox person said, "We would have traded Swisher for a bag of balls."

 

Williams would only say Swisher didn't fit into the plans. In any case, neither of those players would now bring the haul that Williams got. He loves powerful Tyler Flowers, who came in a four-prospect package for Vazquez, and young pitchers Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, who came for Swisher.

 

When Williams picked up Danks and Floyd, those deals were widely panned. When he got Ramirez, it received little notice. And he was the only one talking up Quentin when he got him from Arizona last winter.

 

Quentin was on his way to an MVP season when a self-inflicted injury killed his chances. (And probably hurt the White Sox's chances.) Though Williams isn't making any excuses. "The fact of the matter is, we went to Tampa [for the Division Series] and couldn't get it done," he said. "So, start over."

 

And start with less. Williams trimmed the payroll by about $15 million, and with three positional questions plus veterans Contreras and Colon likely manning the Nos. 4 and 5 spots in the rotation.

 

The future looks secure to Williams. But he surely isn't giving up on now, either. Rebuilding, remarks a colleague, "just isn't in Kenny's DNA."

 

While others see a rebuilding, last-place team, Williams sees another surprising Sox squad.

[MEANS]

pretty nice read, thanks for posting that.

[Chisoxfn]

Pretty good article.

[YASNY]

Great read. That's exactly the way I see the organization, in general, and KW in particular. He misses at timesbut when you make as many moves as he does that'll happen.

[Harry Chappas]

I joined this board to berate KW and the rumor on the board was that he would be fired per some inside sources very soon.

 

I gotta admit I am glad he is the GM and he is one of the better if not best in baseball. This team is a great position both fiscally as well as talent wise.

 

He and Guillen are really good at what they do but their flaws seem to be more publicized than their success.

[BFirebird]

It is nice to see someone actually take the time to write something nice about KW. It is a shame a local writer here wouldn't take the time to do that.

[caulfield12]

Speak of the devil, Cowley on the same subject....coincidence or not?

 

''I've talked to enough people now to where I think I know why we're perceived a certain way. We are not predictable in what we do. We don't follow the mainstream thought process in regard to numbers. We don't make decisions based on the prediction of numbers, whether a guy has been in the big leagues last year or in the minor leagues.

 

''We're more looking at what he has to offer us and how we can fine-tune whatever he does, whether he is a pitcher or a hitter.'

 

''It's a combination of all of it,'' Williams said. ''If you're looking from the outside at the past success of a Gavin Floyd or a John Danks or even a Jeff Marquez, they say, 'Well, now they have this guy, so that means they have a hole at that position.'

 

''Well, I'm thinking, 'Really? OK.' Because you know what: There is a little history here where we've made decisions that are a little unorthodox, knock on wood, that have seemed to kind of work out.''

 

Not that Williams is satisfied. As he sat in his golf cart Wednesday, rather than dwell on the positives he has seen in camp, the talk quickly went to looking for a leadoff candidate to step up in the final three weeks.

 

''I've been shopping outside the organization for years,'' Williams said with a laugh when asked if he might have to go the trade route. ''I still remain positive and hopeful for guys like Jerry Owens. I know that Dewayne Wise isn't scared of anything ... we'll see.

 

''I wouldn't have a problem if Ozzie wanted to go that way [with Wise]. I also wouldn't have a problem if he wanted to go with a guy that would set the tone of the game off right by battling, fighting.''

 

No matter what the Sox decide at key positions, will it change the outside perception of the 2009 team?

 

Williams might not be the best person to ask these days. The guy in the black hat stopped caring about that a few years ago.

 

 

From looking at all his quotes the last 24-48 hours, he did say something else very interesting...that Nix was the hitter among the four (Lillibridge, Getz, Beckham, Nix) who was best-suited for coming off the bench. Perhaps that's some clue about the idea of Nix platooning with Getz and Lillibridge going down to Charlotte to get regular at-bats as the starting SS...?

[Cali]

I joined this board to berate KW and the rumor on the board was that he would be fired per some inside sources very soon.

 

I remember that BS rumor. "His office is cleared out!!11!!"

 

[dmbjeff]

Great read. That's exactly the way I see the organization, in general, and KW in particular. He misses at timesbut when you make as many moves as he does that'll happen.

 

 

for as much as he hits, the misses are quite miniscule. i also can't think of one deal or major signing where the sox got hosed in the end.

 

many criticized his Chris Young for Vazquez deal and i think that's probably the largest one of them all. but seeing how vazquez then netted us Flowers and others, it seems like a wash if Flowers keeps it up. the Swisher deal can be looked at similarly. We trade for him for 3 quality minor leaguers, he fails for us and we go get some new minor leaguers with upside.

 

i mean where else has a screwed up? who else did we trade away that we are clamoring to have back? sure carlos lee is an all-star, but that single deal allowed us to win a WS. what free agent did he let go that has us kicking ourselves? Magglio? we got dye instead who has been more productive over that period of time.

 

maybe i'm forgetting a few deals gone wrong, feel free to post them, but KW is an awesome GM.

[caulfield12]

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins

Ritchie for Wells/Fogg/Lowe

James Baldwin for Onan Masaoka and the "wrong" Berry

giving up Frank Francisco in the Carl Everett deal...

the Richar/Aaron Cunningham deal

Carlos Torres for Mike MacDougal

[SoxAce]

Daniel Cortes/Tyler Lumsden for Mike MacDougal

 

Fixed. Your looking at caulfield's post about that same name way too long

[CanOfCorn]

Great read. That's exactly the way I see the organization, in general, and KW in particular. He misses at timesbut when you make as many moves as he does that'll happen.

 

Exactly. I'd rather have a GM that takes chances than one that sits on his hands (I'm looking at you, Bill Stoneman).

[caulfield12]

Fixed. Your looking at caulfield's post about that same name way too long

 

 

That's like the 2nd or 3rd time I have done that same thing. I don't know why I keep getting those two names mixed up...strange.

 

Well, I guess my memory's still better than Melton's. He can't even remember Ross Gload.

[ILMOU]

The first paragraph of the article say it all - kudos to KW.

 

The "doubters" whoever they are, must like being proven wrong. The Floyd trade may eventually rival the Twins trade of AJP for all-time steals. Freddy won ONE game as a Phillie - Gavin may win 100+ as a Sox.

 

[dmbjeff]

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins

Ritchie for Wells/Fogg/Lowe

James Baldwin for Onan Masaoka and the "wrong" Berry

giving up Frank Francisco in the Carl Everett deal...

the Richar/Aaron Cunningham deal

Carlos Torres for Mike MacDougal

 

yeah but how many of those deals are you wishing we could have back? those are so minor.

[Texsox]

As someone who is almost always labeled as "anti-stats" I loved the article.