Guillen considering Wise at leadoff

[Melissa1334]

My guess is they haven't seen a whole lot in anybody's past. So at that point they'll go with what they see at the moment. Point is, none of the three of them are ML caliber. I happen to think Wise is a better choice than Owens, despite people's faith that Owens can actually put up the OBP he did in 2007. BA may still be the best choice but really, are any of us going to be satisfied with one player over another? If BA wins are we going to sit back and heave a sigh of relief? My guess is Getz wins the job sometime after the season starts and I'll be a much happier camper, but in the meantime...leading off on opening day is an awful lot of pressure for a rookie.

i just hope we dont have to wait years for danks to be ready to have a solid cfer.

[caulfield12]

Simple, Wise put up a 310/487/796 line last year against RHPers...if you count the playoffs, he ended up over the magic 800 OPS mark.

 

Now Wise shouldn't be coming within 100 feet of the batter's box against a lefty, ever, but he's fine as part of a stopgap/bandaid solution with Anderson to get us through the first half of the season. Then we can swoop in around the trading deadline and pick off a player like Figgins or Brian Roberts, putting Roberts at 2B, Beckham at SS and then moving Alexei to CF...or we simply get a player like Figgins for CF, it doesn't matter. KW and Ozzie are too competitive and they won't stand by and let another season get away from them like 2007 did.

[caulfield12]

This made me dizzy. Its like one of those pictures if you stare at it long enough you will see an elephant or something.

 

 

Mr. Pitts??? You still can't see it?

[Melissa1334]

Simple, Wise put up a 310/487/796 line last year against RHPers...if you count the playoffs, he ended up over the magic 800 OPS mark.

 

Now Wise shouldn't be coming within 100 feet of the batter's box against a lefty, ever, but he's fine as part of a stopgap/bandaid solution with Anderson to get us through the first half of the season. Then we can swoop in around the trading deadline and pick off a player like Figgins or Brian Roberts, putting Roberts at 2B, Beckham at SS and then moving Alexei to CF...or we simply get a player like Figgins for CF, it doesn't matter. KW and Ozzie are too competitive and they won't stand by and let another season get away from them like 2007 did.

he recently signed a 4/40 contract, thats not happening

[Balta1701]

Anderson is the best choice of the three, no doubt in my mind.

 

But as for Owens or Wise... Owens will not only give you a higher OBP, but a substantially higher one - probably 50 points or so higher, judging by their career numbers in both the majors and the minors. Also, while Owens has a lousy arm, he's better defensively in the OF than Wise in every other aspect. If I have to have one of those two in the outfield, defensively, I'll take Owens every time. And as was pointed out earlier, Wise's career SB% is similar to Owens'.

 

The only thing Wise has over Owens is the ability to hit 10 or 12 HR, when Owens will hit 2 or 3.

Frankly, I'm not totally sure I agree with you that Owens will have a substantially higher OBP. If I go strictly by their minor league numbers, Owens has a .359 minor league OBP and Wise has a .309 OBP. But that's not telling the whole story. Wise has a .259 minor league batting average, while Owens has a .291 batting average. In other words, the difference between their OBP and batting average is .05 in Wise's case and .06 in Owens's case. Their OBP is therefore for both of them highly dependent on their batting average. Owens will give you 1 walk every 10 ab's, for Wise it's about 1/14. Owens is more patient than Wise and will take more pitches. But here's the key...Owens will only put up a higher OBP than Wise if they have identical batting averages. If Owens's batting average is 20 points lower than Wise's, they'd have very similar OBP's.

 

Now the question...as of right now, as of how they're playing right now, which of the 2 do you think will have the higher batting average? I can't answer that by saying Owens.

[NorthSideSox72]

Frankly, I'm not totally sure I agree with you that Owens will have a substantially higher OBP. If I go strictly by their minor league numbers, Owens has a .359 minor league OBP and Wise has a .309 OBP. But that's not telling the whole story. Wise has a .259 minor league batting average, while Owens has a .291 batting average. In other words, the difference between their OBP and batting average is .05 in Wise's case and .06 in Owens's case. Their OBP is therefore for both of them highly dependent on their batting average. Owens will give you 1 walk every 10 ab's, for Wise it's about 1/14. Owens is more patient than Wise and will take more pitches. But here's the key...Owens will only put up a higher OBP than Wise if they have identical batting averages. If Owens's batting average is 20 points lower than Wise's, they'd have very similar OBP's.

 

Now the question...as of right now, as of how they're playing right now, which of the 2 do you think will have the higher batting average? I can't answer that by saying Owens.

I think you are slicing selectively there. Their career minor and major league OBP's are 50 to 70 points apart, and that includes their AVG. So, why would one hitter's AVG decrease or increase more, but not their IsoBB? Makes no sense statistically.

 

I'll stand by what I said earlier. From what numbers we have, there is every reason to believe that Owens will get on base about 50 points better than Wise.

 

ETA: To answer your last question, I would answer Owens, since their careers show that same trend as with OBP. Owens hits better (for AVG) than Wise does.

 

[caulfield12]

The White Sox could certainly afford it with Dye, Thome and Contreras coming off the books.

 

But it would be a huge PR disaster for the Orioles, that's true. But they're not going to be competitive with or without Brian Roberts in that division.

 

Figgins would make a lot more sense, because he'll be a FA after this year...and Beckham has at least 50% chance to end up 2B anyway, so Roberts doesn't make AS much sense because it would be better to find someone for center AND leadoff, killing two birds with one (Steve) Stone.

 

There are plenty of other options out there that might be had in this economy, Nate McLouth from the Pirates comes to mind right away. We passed up on Furcal because of the presence of Ramirez and Beckham. David DeJesus can be had for the right price.

Edited March 13, 2009 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

ETA: To answer your last question, I would answer Owens, since their careers show that same trend as with OBP. Owens hits better (for AVG) than Wise does.

Ok, to fire back...first of all, I'm just not convinced that Jerry Owens isn't getting worse with the bat right now. His minor league batting average has gone down significantly over the last few years, even in the minor leagues. And if his legs are getting worse, there's plenty of reason to expect that his average could be getting worse.

 

Secondly, if you say that Owens's 2005 season at Birmingham, where he hit .333, was an aberration, his minor league batting average drops to .276. That's half the difference between his BA and Wise's BA right there. And for even more fun, Owens's batting average last year at AAA? .276.

 

I think Owens right now looks like a .250 hitter or worse in the big leagues, and I think Wise, especially if he's facing only RHP, is just likely to do better, based if nothing else on the trend lines.

[Balta1701]

Figgins would make a lot more sense, because he'll be a FA after this year...and Beckham has at least 50% chance to end up 2B anyway, so Roberts doesn't make AS much sense because it would be better to find someone for center AND leadoff, killing two birds with one (Steve) Stone.

Am I the only one who's noticed that Figgins is now 31 years old and hasn't played a full season either of the last 2 years? Or that last year he stole bases at a 72% clip and his success rate is trending downwards fast?

 

(Hey, I have the same birthday as Figgy. Who knew?)

[caulfield12]

Frankly, I'm not totally sure I agree with you that Owens will have a substantially higher OBP. If I go strictly by their minor league numbers, Owens has a .359 minor league OBP and Wise has a .309 OBP. But that's not telling the whole story. Wise has a .259 minor league batting average, while Owens has a .291 batting average. In other words, the difference between their OBP and batting average is .05 in Wise's case and .06 in Owens's case. Their OBP is therefore for both of them highly dependent on their batting average. Owens will give you 1 walk every 10 ab's, for Wise it's about 1/14. Owens is more patient than Wise and will take more pitches. But here's the key...Owens will only put up a higher OBP than Wise if they have identical batting averages. If Owens's batting average is 20 points lower than Wise's, they'd have very similar OBP's.

 

Now the question...as of right now, as of how they're playing right now, which of the 2 do you think will have the higher batting average? I can't answer that by saying Owens.

 

 

Well, we do know that Taveras, Owens and Juan Pierre would all end up with an OPS of around 650-675 (being optimistic) if they played everyday.

 

We need either a .740-.750 OPS OR a .340+ OBP out of CF.

 

Wise and Anderson in a platoon will definitely do the first. Owens and Anderson in a platoon might do both OR neither.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Ok, to fire back...first of all, I'm just not convinced that Jerry Owens isn't getting worse with the bat right now. His minor league batting average has gone down significantly over the last few years, even in the minor leagues. And if his legs are getting worse, there's plenty of reason to expect that his average could be getting worse.

 

Secondly, if you say that Owens's 2005 season at Birmingham, where he hit .333, was an aberration, his minor league batting average drops to .276. That's half the difference between his BA and Wise's BA right there. And for even more fun, Owens's batting average last year at AAA? .276.

 

I think Owens right now looks like a .250 hitter or worse in the big leagues, and I think Wise, especially if he's facing only RHP, is just likely to do better, based if nothing else on the trend lines.

Those are good points. And I do agree on the concerns over Owens' legs. I am not as concerned about a backwards hitting regression, I think that isn't likely. But of course, that is entirely subjective.

 

I think that as bad as Owens seemed to be in CF, watching Wise out there full time will make people wish it was Owens. Wise is pretty bad out there. Honestly, looking at his minor league career, I can't figure out how he managed to even make it to the majors.

 

And again, you slicing selectively against one player with your numbers there. If you want to take away the biggest year in the minors, do it for Wise too (take his 2008 AAA numbers out, as an example). His other yearS in AAA are all mid to low 200's. He's terrible.

 

[Dick Allen]

Any Jerry Owens love comes from his spectacular Sept 07 performance. Other than that, the guy has been a dog in the major leagues. If he leads off the majority of the time for the White Sox, I say they don't play .500. I really thought KW would make acquiring a lead off hitter a priority seeing how its been a problem now for several years. Wise, Owens....those guys are lead off guys for minor league teams or teams that plan on losing 100 games. Having them lead off with this team is like giving a 16 year old a Ferrari. Ridiculous.

[Bubba Philips]

Ok, to fire back...first of all, I'm just not convinced that Jerry Owens isn't getting worse with the bat right now. His minor league batting average has gone down significantly over the last few years, even in the minor leagues. And if his legs are getting worse, there's plenty of reason to expect that his average could be getting worse.

 

Secondly, if you say that Owens's 2005 season at Birmingham, where he hit .333, was an aberration, his minor league batting average drops to .276. That's half the difference between his BA and Wise's BA right there. And for even more fun, Owens's batting average last year at AAA? .276.

 

I think Owens right now looks like a .250 hitter or worse in the big leagues, and I think Wise, especially if he's facing only RHP, is just likely to do better, based if nothing else on the trend lines.

presently after seeing Owens for the past 2 spring training games he seems ok defensively but look inept at the plate.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, we do know that Taveras, Owens and Juan Pierre would all end up with an OPS of around 650-675 (being optimistic) if they played everyday.

 

We need either a .740-.750 OPS OR a .340+ OBP out of CF.

 

Wise and Anderson in a platoon will definitely do the first. Owens and Anderson in a platoon might do both OR neither.

Wise isn't going to put up anywhere near a .340 OBP, barring the strangest player jump I've ever seen. His career OBP is below .300, and was only .309 in the minors.

 

Look, I should say, it is POSSIBLE that Dewayne Wise has suddenly "figured it out", at age 31 with 6 years bouncing between AAA and the majors. But using that logic, how is it that we are dismissing that possibility entirely for a 27 year old Owens with a lot less time in? Or for that matter, with David Cook, who I think is 26?

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Any Jerry Owens love comes from his spectacular Sept 07 performance. Other than that, the guy has been a dog in the major leagues. If he leads off the majority of the time for the White Sox, I say they don't play .500. I really thought KW would make acquiring a lead off hitter a priority seeing how its been a problem now for several years. Wise, Owens....those guys are lead off guys for minor league teams or teams that plan on losing 100 games. Having them lead off with this team is like giving a 16 year old a Ferrari. Ridiculous.

Ugh, I knew this would happen.

 

1. I have made it clear that Owens and Wise are bad ideas, so don't for a second try to label my posts as "Jerry Owens love".

 

2. You choose to take away his most recent active month in the majors, highlight the couple months before then when he was developing, and also ignore his entire minor league career (which is most of his experience). If we are going to compare these two "candidates" for the job, let's at least be complete in our analysis.

 

[caulfield12]

Am I the only one who's noticed that Figgins is now 31 years old and hasn't played a full season either of the last 2 years? Or that last year he stole bases at a 72% clip and his success rate is trending downwards fast?

 

(Hey, I have the same birthday as Figgy. Who knew?)

 

 

I wouldn't be willing to give up much, if anything, for Figgins, unless he proves 100% healthy in the first half, and then it's doubtful they'd want to trade him anyway. The main argument is that he's blocking Brandon Wood, but Wood might turn out to be another McPherson or Kotchman who never achieves anything in Anaheim.

 

McLouth will give you .338/.461/800+ OPS, good defense and 20+ steals.

 

That said, before we give away important components of our farm system, I think we could do just fine with Beckham there eventually. If Ozzie REALLY wants to, he can lead off with Wise against RHPers or possibly Getz.

 

Still don't like the idea of Ramirez hitting first or second. Lillibridge's swing still needs major retooling.

 

[Balta1701]

Look, I should say, it is POSSIBLE that Dewayne Wise has suddenly "figured it out", at age 31 with 6 years bouncing between AAA and the majors. But using that logic, how is it that we are dismissing that possibility entirely for a 27 year old Owens with a lot less time in? Or for that matter, with David Cook, who I think is 26?

Because, quite simply, look at the trend lines. In 2005 at AAA, Wise put up a .639 OPS. In 2006 at AAA, after some time at AA tearing it up, he put up a .796 OPS. In 2007 he put up a .757, in somewhat limited playing time (was he hurt?). In 2007 at AAA he put up a .967 OPS at AAA and a .757 OPS in the big leagues.

 

His numbers are at least going the right way. Owens's #'s are going the wrong way.

 

I will choose not to comment on Cook because I'm going to wind up agreeing with you.

[caulfield12]

Wise isn't going to put up anywhere near a .340 OBP, barring the strangest player jump I've ever seen. His career OBP is below .300, and was only .309 in the minors.

 

Look, I should say, it is POSSIBLE that Dewayne Wise has suddenly "figured it out", at age 31 with 6 years bouncing between AAA and the majors. But using that logic, how is it that we are dismissing that possibility entirely for a 27 year old Owens with a lot less time in? Or for that matter, with David Cook, who I think is 26?

 

You can just forget David Cook...before we see him batting leadoff, we'll go through the following:

 

1) Owens

2) Wise

3) Getz

4) Lillibridge

5) Nix

6) Beckham

7) Josh Kroeger

8) Jordan Danks

9) John Shelby III

10) John Thain

11) Ken Lewis

12) Bernie Madoff

13) ex Krispy Kreme CEO

14) Brian Cook (ex-Illini F/C)

15) David Cook

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprojection.com/CHA2009.htm

 

And the WINNER IS....David Cook or Noah Hall, lol. Interesting website, they have Wise and Anderson neck and neck statistically and Owens lagging a little bit.

I guess this "projection" would probably favor Chris Getz or Alexei Ramirez of all the possible candidates and MAYBE Owens. But .327 for JO isn't going to be enough to get it done.

Edited March 13, 2009 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Don't knock Bernie Madoff, he can pull off the hidden ball trick like no ones business.

[NorthSideSox72]

I will choose not to comment on Cook because I'm going to wind up agreeing with you.

 

We can't have that on Soxtalk!

 

[NorthSideSox72]

You can just forget David Cook...before we see him batting leadoff, we'll go through the following:

 

1) Owens

2) Wise

3) Getz

4) Lillibridge

5) Nix

6) Beckham

7) Josh Kroeger

8) Jordan Danks

9) John Shelby III

10) John Thain

11) Ken Lewis

12) Bernie Madoff

13) ex Krispy Kreme CEO

14) Brian Cook (ex-Illini F/C)

15) David Cook

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprojection.com/CHA2009.htm

 

And the WINNER IS....David Cook or Noah Hall, lol. Interesting website, they have Wise and Anderson neck and neck statistically and Owens lagging a little bit.

I guess this "projection" would probably favor Chris Getz or Alexei Ramirez of all the possible candidates and MAYBE Owens. But .327 for JO isn't going to be enough to get it done.

To be clear, I was not suggesting that David Cook lead off. Not at all. I was dicussing the idea of age, prospects and development.

 

[ILMOU]

Because, quite simply, look at the trend lines. In 2005 at AAA, Wise put up a .639 OPS. In 2006 at AAA, after some time at AA tearing it up, he put up a .796 OPS. In 2007 he put up a .757, in somewhat limited playing time (was he hurt?). In 2007 at AAA he put up a .967 OPS at AAA and a .757 OPS in the big leagues.

 

His numbers are at least going the right way. Owens's #'s are going the wrong way.

 

I will choose not to comment on Cook because I'm going to wind up agreeing with you.

 

 

To me, the obvious explanation is that Owens is a player whose OBP will depend HUGELY on his ability to run, as all he can do is slap the ball. More so than a player like Wise, who has some pop. Owens is 28, or soon will be, and he looks like he's lost some speed already.

 

I don't really like DWise at all, but if CF becomes a platoon, I want to see him there over Owens.

[Soxfest]

Sox have no real lead off option and that is KW fault!

[southsideirish71]

''It's still early,'' Guillen said. ''Owens, he's improved a lot the last week and a half. Wise is the one that is swinging the bat real well out of that leadoff spot. We've put Beckham out there just to get at-bats. We hope we have the leadoff hitter we should have. That doesn't mean we won't go to Plan B or C.

 

? Owens has improved? At what, his ability to run real fast as he records the out.

 

 

[Bubba Philips]

? Owens has improved? At what, his ability to run real fast as he records the out.

I"ve agonized watching Owens play the last 3 days. he fields adequetly but jerry just can't hit. Weis has played well going 2 for 6 today with a homer. Anderson hit one today. i can't find one criteria to play owens over Anderson and Weis. unless Ozzie wants the tallest centerfielder if that would be the criteria he'd be in there.