Constructing the perfect White Sox line-up

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...381&Model=0

 

 

You guys will all have a lot of fun with this tool.

 

The best line-up I could come up with produced 5.638 runs per game, or 913 over a full major league season.

 

Probably the very best line-up that's also realistic for the White Sox is the one that produced 5.634 runs per game.

 

1. Beckham, SS (I projected him to .350 OBP and Alexei's .475 SLG from last year, still a fairly conservative .825 OPS)

2. Carlos Quentin, LF

3. Paul Konerko, 1B

4. Jermaine Dye, RF

5. Jim Thome, DH

6. Alexei Ramirez, CF (splitting up the two lefties with Alisay, although you could flip Fields and AJ I guess)

7. Josh Fields, 3B (based on average minor league numbers)

8. AJ Pierzynski, C

9. Chris Getz, 2B (based on average minor league numbers)

 

Every formula I ran had the most runs scored with AJ and Getz as 8 and 9, bottom of the order.

 

I compared line-ups with Nix and Getz (going off minor league numbers) and Getz always won by about 0.1 runs per game....not taking into account Nix's superior defense. Didn't bother with Lillibridge, I think he currently projects as the utility guy.

 

One other interesting statistical finding: If you use their career MAJOR league numbers, Brian Anderson comes out with a SLIGHT advantage over Jerry Owens and both are about .02 ahead of Dewayne Wise. The advantage is even bigger if you use BA's minor league numbers, and, once again, doesn't take into account defensive ability, which would obviously favor Anderson as well.

 

 

Play around and find a line-up that can beat mine...also, you can have fun putting in Figgins, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson, Furcal, Dunn, Abreu, etc.

 

It's a pretty neat line-up tool and makes for interesting discussion.

 

FINAL NOTE: For all the Brian Anderson fans out there, I did this for you. I VERY GENEROUSLY AVERAGED his major and minor league numbers (.3205 OBP, .4265 SLG, .747 OPS, Torii Hunter, Jr.) and put him out there with Alexei and Beckham in the middle infield BUT the Getz 2B, Beckham SS and Alexei in CF version still won 5.634-5.638 to 5.571 RPG.

In order for BA/Beckham/Ramirez to win, he has to save/prevent 10 1/2 runs per season on defense compared to the Ramirez/Beckham/Getz version. I think you could make that argument, with Anderson over Alexei in CF, Ramirez over Beckham at SS and Beckham over Getz at 2B.

 

That line-up, the one we've just begun to embrace as White Sox fans, would score 902.5 runs in a season.

 

Of course, that's all predicated on BA getting a .747 OPS in everyday play against tough righties and not just favorable match-ups, which is FAR from a sure thing.

Edited March 13, 2009 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

The only other issues to be settled...

 

1) How many times do you sit Fields, Ramirez and Konerko for tough RH pitchers and insert Betemit?

Betemit will give you a 339/460/799 line against righties.

 

Fields has been bi-polar coming into this season, 363/667/1.030 versus LHP and 646 OPS against RHP. Still, you don't think think that Betemit will end up getting more AB's (strict platoon) than Fields, because it looks like Josh is finally healthy, his knees are fine and his eyesight is better with the Lasik (although he has been striking out more in recent games).

 

2) Is there any away to take Corky Miller (based on his arm/defense) over Chris Stewart, who's a much tougher hitter against LHP and could give AJ some needed rest? Based on Miller's career offensive statistics, you'd have to give Stewart the edge.

 

3) Do you do the platoon with WISE or OWENS and Anderson or do you let Anderson play full-time???

 

Before last season, BA's numbers were pretty similar against righties and lefties. But he put up a 262/563/824 line in 2008. Wise and Owens put up similar numbers against RHP's career-wise (Wise...261/401/662 versus Owens' 323/320/644) but Wise really had a statistical anomaly of a year versus righties in 2008 (310/487/796). Or did he?

 

Right now, you'd have to think Ozzie would go with the Anderson/Wise platoon in CF. No idea who would hit leadoff when Anderson was/is playing.

 

4) With 2B, it would seem Getz would get all of the AB's against RHP and Nix would make the team (KW has also said he prefers the idea of Nix on the bench with his approach and experience) and play against LHPers.

 

The only "fly in the ointment" is Lillibridge. He gives you a better defensive SS than Getz or Betemit and also another option for leadoff, pinch-running and CF. I just don't know about his swing, confidence and mechanics at this point...I can't imagine it would get any better sitting on the bench. I think he needs to play everyday in Charlotte at SS and be ready to fill in at SS, 2B or CF, wherever needed.

 

Getz can also play SS occasionally to give Ramirez a rest every once in a while, or you can stick Betemit there and take your chances defensively.

 

Then the only questions left are 6 or 7 relievers and do Marquez/Richard/Carasco make the team or does Marquez go down to Charlotte as a starter with Richard as the 2nd lefty and swingman out of the pen...you'd have to say right now Marquez is your 6, Richard your 7 and Poreda your 8. It's also completely dependent on Contreras/Colon and what Cooper/KW/Ozzie decide is best for this season with Poreda, Marquez and Richard (probably two of them inserted into the Charlotte starting rotation).

 

Obviously, they like Poreda's arm a lot, and you'd rather see another power righty (what Russell was supposed to be) instead of three lefties.

 

It doesn't look like Russell, Jimenez, Wasserman, Nunez or German have distinguished themselves. We haven't even seen very much out of DJ Carasco, although the assumption by most is that he will be on the team...Broadway and Egbert continue to be longshots.

 

I'd really like to see more out of Santeliz and Omogrosso. Link hasn't really stood out either, kind of an afterthought. Many were mentioning him as a candidate to make the team this spring but it doesn't look like it's happening.

 

 

[Bubba Philips]

The only other issues to be settled...

 

1) How many times do you sit Fields, Ramirez and Konerko for tough RH pitchers and insert Betemit?

Betemit will give you a 339/460/799 line against righties.

 

Fields has been bi-polar coming into this season, 363/667/1.030 versus LHP and 646 OPS against RHP. Still, you don't think think that Betemit will end up getting more AB's (strict platoon) than Fields, because it looks like Josh is finally healthy, his knees are fine and his eyesight is better with the Lasik (although he has been striking out more in recent games).

 

2) Is there any away to take Corky Miller (based on his arm/defense) over Chris Stewart, who's a much tougher hitter against LHP and could give AJ some needed rest? Based on Miller's career offensive statistics, you'd have to give Stewart the edge.

 

3) Do you do the platoon with WISE or OWENS and Anderson or do you let Anderson play full-time???

 

Before last season, BA's numbers were pretty similar against righties and lefties. But he put up a 262/563/824 line in 2008. Wise and Owens put up similar numbers against RHP's career-wise (Wise...261/401/662 versus Owens' 323/320/644) but Wise really had a statistical anomaly of a year versus righties in 2008 (310/487/796). Or did he?

 

Right now, you'd have to think Ozzie would go with the Anderson/Wise platoon in CF. No idea who would hit leadoff when Anderson was/is playing.

 

4) With 2B, it would seem Getz would get all of the AB's against RHP and Nix would make the team (KW has also said he prefers the idea of Nix on the bench with his approach and experience) and play against LHPers.

 

The only "fly in the ointment" is Lillibridge. He gives you a better defensive SS than Getz or Betemit and also another option for leadoff, pinch-running and CF. I just don't know about his swing, confidence and mechanics at this point...I can't imagine it would get any better sitting on the bench. I think he needs to play everyday in Charlotte at SS and be ready to fill in at SS, 2B or CF, wherever needed.

 

Getz can also play SS occasionally to give Ramirez a rest every once in a while, or you can stick Betemit there and take your chances defensively.

 

Then the only questions left are 6 or 7 relievers and do Marquez/Richard/Carasco make the team or does Marquez go down to Charlotte as a starter with Richard as the 2nd lefty and swingman out of the pen...you'd have to say right now Marquez is your 6, Richard your 7 and Poreda your 8. It's also completely dependent on Contreras/Colon and what Cooper/KW/Ozzie decide is best for this season with Poreda, Marquez and Richard (probably two of them inserted into the Charlotte starting rotation).

 

Obviously, they like Poreda's arm a lot, and you'd rather see another power righty (what Russell was supposed to be) instead of three lefties.

 

It doesn't look like Russell, Jimenez, Wasserman, Nunez or German have distinguished themselves. We haven't even seen very much out of DJ Carasco, although the assumption by most is that he will be on the team...Broadway and Egbert continue to be longshots.

 

I'd really like to see more out of Santeliz and Omogrosso. Link hasn't really stood out either, kind of an afterthought. Many were mentioning him as a candidate to make the team this spring but it doesn't look like it's happening.

 

[103 mph screwball]

Very interesting. Instead of batting Q second, I would bat Thome there. He sees a lot of pitches, has a high OBP, and he hits the ball to the right side almost ALL of the time. He's slow, but so is AJ. Too bad he strikes out so much.

[caulfield12]

You could put Thome at #2 in the order and get 5.633, 5.632 and 5.629 Runs Per Game

 

1. Carlos Quentin (all four line-ups)

2. Jim Thome (all four)

3. Fields (2), Konerko or Beckham

4. Jermaine Dye (all four line-ups)

5. Beckham or Konerko

6. Alexei Ramirez (3) or Josh Fields

7. Konerko/Ramirez/Fields/Beckham

8. AJ

9. Getz or Nix

 

Eventually, I think you'd see Beckham hitting 3rd, with Fields 7th. I just think Ozzie wouldn't put the pressue of hitting 3rd on Beckham right away...not his style as a manager, no matter how confident/cocky Beckham is at this point.

 

It would actually make a lot of sense, after the first at-bat. If you switched AJ and Ramirez, you could have the combination of Beckham, Ramirez and Getz running on the basepaths in front of Quentin and Thome from the 2nd inning on.

 

 

With BA in the line-up and Thome hitting 2nd, you'd get 5.528 RPG.

 

1. CQ

2. Thome

3. Fields (once again, this is all based on Fields replacating his minor league numbers, not what he's done so far in the majors with us)

4. Dye

5. Konerko

6. Ramirez

7. BA

8. AJ

9. Getz

 

When you use Josh Fields' major league averages of .303 OBP and .454 SLG, you get something even more interesting with BA in the line-up. In the first six examples that score the highest number of runs, BA is hitting 3rd, of all places!!!

 

5.500-5.497 RPG

 

1. CQ

2. Thome

3. BA

4. JD

5. Konerko

6. Fields

7. Ramirez

8. AJ

9. Getz

 

Seems strange to imagine either BA or Fields hitting 3rd, especially Anderson...

Edited March 13, 2009 by caulfield12

[WilliamTell]

The perfect White Sox lineup is going to need Dye, Konerko, and Thome to all have big years. I don't think we can win the division if Thome and Konerko aren't producing. I hope Ramirez and Quentin can produce in their second years here too.

[caulfield12]

We have a lot of risk that Thome, Dye, Quentin or Ramirez won't produce like they did last season and/or they will get injured.

 

OTOH, Konerko seems to be in position for improvement on last year's overall line. Fields should also improve on the offensive numbers from 3B last year.

 

CF can't get much worse, Cabrera can be replaced by Getz/Nix, AJ will do about the same probably, barring an injury, which might be the most catastrophic loss the White Sox could suffer on the entire team outside of Danks or Buehrle going down for an extended period.

 

That also doesn't take into account the looming presence of Beckham and Viciedo on the horizon.

Edited March 13, 2009 by caulfield12