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Danks' agent positioning him in J. Lester territory


caulfield12

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MLB.com's Scott Merkin talked to White Sox starter John Danks, who recently turned down the team's offer of a four-year, $15.5MM extension (Gavin Floyd accepted the same offer). Danks was excited by the offer, but his agent advised him not to take it:

 

"I was thrilled to death. I was advised that it wasn't the right time for that deal, but at the same time, never in a million years, never did I think I would have turned down a guaranteed 15. It was a hard decision, but that's why I pay my agent. We'll move on from there."

 

So at least the desire to stay in Chicago is evident with Danks. Danks mentioned two more times that he turned down the offer on the advice of his agent Jeff Berry. He even admitted, "When I heard $15 million, I was like 'Heck yeah.'" Berry wants Danks to wait until after '09, when he'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Presumably Berry has his eye on a Jon Lester deal.

 

 

Just hope Danks doesn't go all Cliff Lee second season version and end up regretting passing up the guaranteed $15 million.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 06:55 AM)
MLB.com's Scott Merkin talked to White Sox starter John Danks, who recently turned down the team's offer of a four-year, $15.5MM extension (Gavin Floyd accepted the same offer). Danks was excited by the offer, but his agent advised him not to take it:

 

"I was thrilled to death. I was advised that it wasn't the right time for that deal, but at the same time, never in a million years, never did I think I would have turned down a guaranteed 15. It was a hard decision, but that's why I pay my agent. We'll move on from there."

 

So at least the desire to stay in Chicago is evident with Danks. Danks mentioned two more times that he turned down the offer on the advice of his agent Jeff Berry. He even admitted, "When I heard $15 million, I was like 'Heck yeah.'" Berry wants Danks to wait until after '09, when he'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Presumably Berry has his eye on a Jon Lester deal.

 

 

Just hope Danks doesn't go all Cliff Lee second season version and end up regretting passing up the guaranteed $15 million.

I think it's safe to assume that agents don't operate under the old saying "a bird in hand is worth two in the bush."

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 09:23 AM)
Doesn't he share agents with Buehrle?

 

Also, imagine if Boras was still his agent. I do think that Danks wants to try and stay in Chicago.

Yes.

 

And there's no reason for John Danks to ask for any less than Jon Lester money right now. Meaning about 18.5M guaranteed over 4 years or $30M over 5 years. Another great season and that number only goes up to possibly Cole Hamels money, $20.5M over 3 years.

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Honestly, it makes sense for him to wait. I would almost be worried if he signed for that cheap. It would potentially look like he knew something that the team didn't. Regardless, it's cool to see how excited he is to stay in Chicago.

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greedy two faced mother f***er. If he really wants to stay in Chicago, sign the deal. Be a man, don't hide behind your agent. Like he's ever going to spend $15 mil. That's probably more than his parents made their whole lives.

 

Too soon? :lolhitting

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QUOTE (Texsox @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 09:44 AM)
greedy two faced mother f***er. If he really wants to stay in Chicago, sign the deal. Be a man, don't hide behind your agent. Like he's ever going to spend $15 mil. That's probably more than his parents made their whole lives.

 

Too soon? :lolhitting

Do moderately intelligent Sox fans even think that way anymore? I remember with the Buehrle situation in '07 it sure seemed like the fan base came down hard on the organization, putting an awful lot of pressure on Williams/Reinsorf to get a deal done.

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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 09:50 AM)
Do moderately intelligent Sox fans even think that way anymore? I remember with the Buehrle situation in '07 it sure seemed like the fan base came down hard on the organization, putting an awful lot of pressure on Williams/Reinsorf to get a deal done.

 

Not to mention that scenario has happened with exactly one player I can remember during my fandom, and that particular player lied to the organization, about the organziation, and about pretty much every detail of the negotiations.

 

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These agents often take big risks with young players, and this is a great example. If Danks is truly destined to be a great pitcher, his agent would be wise to accept a GUARANTEED 15M now, and in four years, he can go for the bigger payout. Right now he should lock him in and guarantee he never has to worry about money again -- especially when you see how quickly things can change. As it stands, if Danks sustains a career ending injury now, he's left with a, "I'm sorry, but I gambled with your financial future because I wanted my 10% to be bigger."

 

Bottom line, if this was his only shot at a payout, then yes, waiting may be the better choice, but Danks is so young, he should give himself peace of mind now, lock it in, and worry about the mega payout in 4 years. I think risks like this are ridiculous no matter what way people or agents spin them.

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QUOTE (Y2HH @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 11:13 AM)
These agents often take big risks with young players, and this is a great example. If Danks is truly destined to be a great pitcher, his agent would be wise to accept a GUARANTEED 15M now, and in four years, he can go for the bigger payout. Right now he should lock him in and guarantee he never has to worry about money again -- especially when you see how quickly things can change. As it stands, if Danks sustains a career ending injury now, he's left with a, "I'm sorry, but I gambled with your financial future because I wanted my 10% to be bigger."

 

Bottom line, if this was his only shot at a payout, then yes, waiting may be the better choice, but Danks is so young, he should give himself peace of mind now, lock it in, and worry about the mega payout in 4 years. I think risks like this are ridiculous no matter what way people or agents spin them.

You are correct, sir.

 

I don't have a problem with Danks wanting more money, he certainly is worthy of a Lester or better contract, but you are right about the gamble being a profoundly stupid one. There are zero circumstances in which I decline a guarantee of $15M because I MIGHT get more a few years from now, and a tiny bit further down the road will almost certainly get a huge contract anyway.

 

But that's all on his agent's shoulders. I think agents nowadays all aspire to be Drew Rosenhaus or Scott Boras: known for their ridiculously hyperinflated contracts and diva-like behavior. I suppose it's a more attractive business model for athletes and is essentially free advertisement. But their clients are certainly not their foremost priority.

Edited by ScottyDo
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I'd be curious to see how much money Danks could be leaving on the table if he signed this deal, including the team option year. Obviously the free agent year would be the big loss for him, if he was indeed exercized at $9.5 million. Going to the absolute high end, Johan Santana is averaging $22.5 million per year in his deal, and I don't think anyone would say Danks is in, or going to be in, that neighborhood. CC Sabathia ended up in that same range. After that you fall to the Barry Zito contract at $18 million per year. Depending on how much the economy rebounds in the next 4 years, could Danks end up in that range? Maybe. Mark Buehrles deal ends up being worth 5 years and 65 million at most, if he is traded. I think if Danks continues his progress, he should be in the $15 to $18 million range annually by the time he hits free agency. I don't have the records to go over each year of arbitration and compare Danks to who he could be earning against, but I have to imagine, he would be taking a little bit of a risk in those years as well.

 

Realistically, he seems to be leaving about 10-15 million dollars potentially on the table, if everything goes right for him over the next 4 years. Is it worth risking 15 million for sure, to make $25ish million, maybe $30 million in the end? Its a choice I'd like to have to make, that's for sure!

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 25, 2009 -> 11:56 AM)
I'd be curious to see how much money Danks could be leaving on the table if he signed this deal, including the team option year. Obviously the free agent year would be the big loss for him, if he was indeed exercized at $9.5 million. Going to the absolute high end, Johan Santana is averaging $22.5 million per year in his deal, and I don't think anyone would say Danks is in, or going to be in, that neighborhood. CC Sabathia ended up in that same range. After that you fall to the Barry Zito contract at $18 million per year. Depending on how much the economy rebounds in the next 4 years, could Danks end up in that range? Maybe. Mark Buehrles deal ends up being worth 5 years and 65 million at most, if he is traded. I think if Danks continues his progress, he should be in the $15 to $18 million range annually by the time he hits free agency. I don't have the records to go over each year of arbitration and compare Danks to who he could be earning against, but I have to imagine, he would be taking a little bit of a risk in those years as well.

 

Realistically, he seems to be leaving about 10-15 million dollars potentially on the table, if everything goes right for him over the next 4 years. Is it worth risking 15 million for sure, to make $25ish million, maybe $30 million in the end? Its a choice I'd like to have to make, that's for sure!

 

Like I said, I'd take the guaranteed 15M now, and do my best to assure that in 4 years I'll get a mega payout, but if all goes wrong in the mean time -- I'm covered. As it stands, it's a complete gamble, because he may not even get injured badly, but fall off a cliff in terms of production and end up with major league minimum for a few years and then get disappear like I've seen so many times before.

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