Your Keys to an '09 Sox Division Title

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

What are your keys to success this season?

 

Mine are:

 

1. 5th starter - As I see it, Colon and Contreras can only be counted on to combine for one spot for a whole season. Someone else, or some combination of others, has to step up and throw near .500 baseball.

 

2. Long relief - Because of #1, and because Danks had trouble working deep into games last year, we need someone to take the ball in the 5th and 6th innings more often and we need someone to keep the back end of the pen rested. We have a luxury with Richard and Thornton from the left side and Jenks, Linebrink, and Dotel from the right side, but none of that is going to matter if they're being overworked. If we don't have a capable LR then the whole pen is going to fail.

 

3. Defense in CF - If Anderson or an equally capable defender to be acquired later is not out there all the time then this team is in serious trouble. No more of this grinder bulls***. Put a guy out there that is going to catch the ball and keep runners from advancing.

 

4. Defense at 3B - Fields needs to make the basic plays, simple as that. He's not going to be Crede or Ventura who have kind of spoiled Sox fans over recent years with their great defense, but he needs to keep his head in the game at all times and take his time to glove the ball and make a good throw, especially against Minnesota and Kansas City who will both test him a LOT, the Twins especially. Don't think that Gardenhire isn't planning on giving Josh a good at workout at the hot corner.

 

5. Quentin - The lineup revolves around him now. He needs to be fully healthy and hit for power like last year in order to keep the rest of the sluggers as effective as possible. Thome goes into long slumps to open the season; Paulie is hopefully healthy, but is coming off of two bad years; Dye has been great but you never know with his age. While all three of Paulie, Dye, and Thome are great #3-4 hitters for parts of a season, Quentin is the only man that can fit that role from bell to bell and we need him to do it.

 

If we check out in all 5 areas I think we win the division. Getz will be solid if he's healthy and Beckham and Nix both act as insurance. We're not going to have trouble scoring runs, the back end of our pen is very good on paper, and our top three starters are good enough plus Colon and Contreras should combine to pitch the innings of at least one solid fourth starter. The lead off issue is about as important to this team as the backup catcher issue so long as we have the right player in CF. Getz should lead off and do fine, and if not, someone else will. We won the division last year with OC up there and we don't need a megalithic OBP or tons of SB to win ballgames; we just need solid AB's day in and day out with the rest of the lineup producing. Besides, if Wise or Owens lead off then you know they're going to try to steal whenever they get on base in an attempt to please the organization and earn regular playing time, but that is a problem because that is a perfect example of selfish, me-first baseball and if it happens it will end up hurting the offense more by s***ty players running themselves out of scoring opportunities.

 

So, those are my keys and feel free to add yours.

[maggsmaggs]

Pitching Pitching Pitching and some D. We are going to hit most of the year and score runs. If our runs allowed is in the top 4 in the AL, we will be in the playoffs. Twins will pitch, but can't hit with us. Indians can hit and pitch 1-3 will us, but not 4-5. Tigers are overpaid and old. KC is young and energetic, but too inexperienced. We pitch, we win.

[caulfield12]

Not sure about being selfish...I know the organization really pushed Pods (post ASB 05) and Willie Harris (another example) to be more aggressive with their speed and utilize it on the basepaths, but both became hesitant. I think the same thing was happening with Owens early in ST, he was getting thrown out over and over again and started to lose his aggressiveness. That's his biggest weapon.

 

I still think MacDougal might end up having a bigger role in this season than many expect.

 

Definitely the line-up depends on Quentin...and probably getting an injection at some point from Beckham, Viciedo or a mid-season move from KW. We have the luxury this season of taking on some salary we didn't have in past years from what we've been led to believe.

 

Everyone keeps talking about Lillibridge, Corky, Williams....but I think those concerns are overplayed. Williams likely won't make the team because they will take Richard as the 2nd left and people will at least enjoy Miller's defense...he would be the 2009 equivalent of Brian Anderson's 2006 campaign in limited dosages.

 

I think Colon will be better than expected and Contreras about .500 with 150 IP and a 4.50 or so ERA (a little like Javy minus the IP numbers and fewer K's, unless he really gets that forkball/FB combination of his rolling again). Contreras was actually very good the first two months of the season, then he kind of lost his confidence and I think he was also trying to pitch through pain as usual.

 

 

[Missy]

Figured this is a good place for my first post. Hi everyone!

 

My keys are:

1. Q, Alexei, Danks and Floyd have to back up their 2008 numbers
2. 2nd base and 3rd base have to be solid, both defense and offense
3. In addition to Colon and Contreras not being awful, one of the kids (Marquez, Poreda, Richard) has to become a big boy pitcher

[ThunderBolt]

Welcome to the Board.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Not sure about being selfish...I know the organization really pushed Pods (post ASB 05) and Willie Harris (another example) to be more aggressive with their speed and utilize it on the basepaths, but both became hesitant. I think the same thing was happening with Owens early in ST, he was getting thrown out over and over again and started to lose his aggressiveness. That's his biggest weapon.

Wise got thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple today and I see that as a sign of things to come if either he or Owens end up leading off. There's nothing wrong with being aggressive and looking to put an opponent down 1-0 early, in fact that's the type of baseball I love more than any other kind. The problem is, these guys are going to have it in their heads that they need to do certain things in order to keep playing, and they're going to end up taking chances that do not benefit the team as a whole. Hopefully as far as steals are concerned that will all come from the dugout and Ozzie will pick his spots wisely, but I believe the Sox gave Pods the green light much of the time when he was here so that is something to worry about. Mainly it's the brainfarts like trying to stretch out singles into doubles and doubles into triples that is going to hurt us, along with one of these guys trying to tag and move to second on a fly ball or whatever. I just really, really don't want to see a situation where some bench player like Wise or Owens is out there every day playing s***ty defense and making outs, and then as soon as he does something good and gets on he ends up taking the bat out of the hands of a good hitter and/or running himself into an out.

 

There's just so many problems you run into when you try to polish a turd. If we had a prototypical lead-off hitter I'd simply want that guy to play his game the best way he knows how to, but if we're asking players to do things they aren't capable of and turn themselves into something they'll never be then we're only going to hurt ourselves. Besides, maybe it's better if Ozzie doesn't get the toys he wants to play with. It seems like at least once during every week of the season he ends up out-managing himself with his bad hit-and-run calls.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Figured this is a good place for my first post. Hi everyone!

 

My keys are:

1. Q, Alexei, Danks and Floyd have to back up their 2008 numbers
2. 2nd base and 3rd base have to be solid, both defense and offense
3. In addition to Colon and Contreras not being awful, one of the kids (Marquez, Poreda, Richard) has to become a big boy pitcher

Hello and welcome to SoxTalk! Hope you don't mind threads about Brian Anderson...

[TheBigHurt]

Not trying to sound negative, but we'd need a damn miracle to win the division unless most are players are hot (I guess CQ and Alexei is great for starters) and the rest of the division s***s again (like last year) considering I think technically the Sox are a much more vulnerable team than they were last year.

[WilliamTell]

Hello and welcome to SoxTalk! Hope you don't mind threads about Brian Anderson...

 

At least there aren't any Crede vs. Fields for 3rd base anymore.

[almagest]

At least there aren't any Crede vs. Fields for 3rd base anymore.

The hell there aren't!

 

[mr_genius]

Pitching Pitching Pitching and some D.

 

^^^

 

 

[bmags]

Pitching will win us a title. Offense will make it fun to watch.

[caulfield12]

Not trying to sound negative, but we'd need a damn miracle to win the division unless most are players are hot (I guess CQ and Alexei is great for starters) and the rest of the division s***s again (like last year) considering I think technically the Sox are a much more vulnerable team than they were last year.

 

 

When you look at it, though, we have a lot more depth in our pitching staff, although it it appears to be a more bit more fragile than in years past with health concerns about Buehrle (now), Colon and Contreras. Undoubtedly, one or two of them will break down at some point this season.

 

However, CLE has Carl Pavano as their #3 right now...that's enough to make their position dubious. Is Ben Francisco going to continue to improve? Is Shoo an everyday player or a platoon guy who had one good half? Is DeRosa capable of putting up Cubs-like numbers in the AL, or did he have a career year? Barfield and Marte are failures....what about that infield defense? Not very good at all...except for Cabrera. Hafner might be done. Victor Martinez is a 1B/DH masquerading as a catcher and blocks Shoppach's bat. Martinez is clearly worse than AJ, and that's quite a statement. What will they do with Garko now? Why the heck did they trade Fr. Gutierrez's solid defense? Will the real Carmona stand up? Is Cliff Lee (or John Danks) really THAT good or was last year a mirage?

 

Minnesota still has no answer (not Ayala) for their RH relief problems. Nathan is a bit of question mark coming off his very average 2nd half (compared to his normal high standards). Punto as the everday SS??? Look at his average in 2007 and you'll see why there are concerns. Young still hasn't blended in with Gardy and the overall organizational atmosphere over there. Span was a huge lift to them, and Cuddyer was injury-riddled and scares me a lot less than Span because he's a terrible defender and similar to Joe Crede batting-wise. Will Crede last? How long? Will Mijares be as good as he was down the stretch? Without Mauer and Span, this is a very average team, unless Liriano returns to 06 form. Not only that, but Baker/Slowey/Perkins/Blackburn all overachieved compared to their projections...can that continue? How will Morneau fare without protection in the line-up? Will Carlos Gomez manage a 700 OPS ever?

 

There's not a team in our division without 5-10 points of obvious vulnerability or weakness.

 

Unless Ben Revere charges into the majors, Viciedo, Beckham, Poreda and Porcello are all rookies that could have a huge impact on the race, and we have 3/4 of those guys. And we have more budgetary flexibility than any of the teams out there.....CLE added DeRosa and Wood, they can't afford to extend their payroll, especially with all the economic problems on the Cuyahoga.

 

 

[bschmaranz]

We get 200-250 combined innings of quality pitching out of Colon and Contreras, I think the division is ours.

[daggins]

CLE and MIN teams die in seperate freak plane crashes.

 

[rangercal]

Not trying to sound negative, but we'd need a damn miracle to win the division unless most are players are hot (I guess CQ and Alexei is great for starters) and the rest of the division s***s again (like last year) considering I think technically the Sox are a much more vulnerable team than they were last year.

 

you always try to sound negative.

[Princess Dye]

What are your keys to success this season?

 

Mine are:

 

1.

 

2.

 

3.

 

4.

 

5.

 

The problem with this year is how many more there potentially can be than 5.

 

Last year a lot went right. Yet since then ....we dumped top-of-the-order OBP, infield defensive players and a major innings eater.

Edited March 27, 2009 by Princess Dye

[YASNY]

As things stand right now, the main key for the Sox is that AJ stays healthy and catches 140-150 games.

[Missy]

Hello and welcome to SoxTalk! Hope you don't mind threads about Brian Anderson...

 

Thank you!

 

I don't mind the obesessive/compulsive centerfield discussions. I just want someone to play the damn position and if BA would step up and just be a decent hitter, they'd be nothing to discuss.

 

[beck72]

Pitching should decide how far the sox can go in 2009. Both the SP's and the bullpen.

 

*Danks and Floyd need to come near their breakthrough years of last season. The vets need to stay healthy, so the sox can add to the bullpen with the young guys. If the vets are hurt, then the sox have to add the young guys to the rotation. That means taxing the bullpen, with the young guys likely not going deep into games. And it means taking out options to add to the bullpen.

 

*If Jenks, Linebrink, Thornton and Dotel can also pitch full seasons, the bullpen may be the difference maker in the division. The bullpens in the AL Central aren't that strong. The sox have enough solid arms they could add to the pen like Richard, Marquez, Broadway, Poreda, Link that someone should be able to surprise and possibly be able to throw in the 7th and 8th innings.

[sircaffey]

Most important key is that age/workload does not rear it's ugly head. I'm particularly looking towards Buehrle, Jenks, and Dye.

[ILMOU]

we'd need a damn miracle to win the division unless most are players are hot

 

No miracle needed. We have the best overall pitching in the division.