Another projection has White Sox at +/- 84 wins

[caulfield12]

The '09 squad will be appreciably different, especially the offense. How will they compare to the 4.98 runs per game scored last year? CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool suggest 5.07 runs per game, which would again rank 5th in the AL. This simulation has Chris Getz leading off and DeWayne Wise splitting time evenly with Brian Anderson. Gone are the 2,075 ABs given to Cabrera, Swisher, Crede, Uribe, Griffey, and Hall.

 

If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at last year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games. Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?

 

Last year's rotation posted a 4.09 ERA in 998.3 innings, 4th in the league. Vazquez contributed 21% of those innings, but at a 4.67 ERA. Once again, the White Sox will have to prove projection systems wrong. CHONE sees a Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras/Colon/Richard/Marquez rotation posting a 4.91 ERA in 934 innings. There is a good case to be made that projection systems are selling the newly-locked up Floyd short by calling for a 5.00+ ERA. And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark. Still, it would've been nice to see the Sox add more starting depth or hang on to Vazquez.

 

Logan's 5.95 ERA is gone from the bullpen; the core group returns. Projections suggest that as a whole, the pen is capable of repeating its 4.13 ERA.

 

Defensively, the White Sox ranked 12th of 14 AL teams according to The Fielding Bible II. The book says the poor fielding was spread across the diamond, with above-average work only at shortstop, third base, and left field. Fields can't match Crede at third, and the Getz/Ramirez middle infield is an unknown. Not having Swisher and Griffey in center should help. (Unless it's Wise or Owens!!! Also, didn't know that any ratings system had Quentin at "above average" last year in LF)

 

GM Ken Williams took a gamble dealing Vazquez, as the '09 rotation is not necessarily a strength. As presently constructed, even with a quality offense, this team seems destined to win 84 games at best. The standard disclaimer: the Ken Williams' White Sox have never been predictable.

 

Bottom line: The White Sox will again need multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08.

 

mlbtraderumors.com

Edited March 28, 2009 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark[/b].

 

Gut feel, and the fact that Buehrle has only been that bad once in his career. The projection systems might as well admit that they can't predict MB accurately. I'm guessing they undervalue his runner-holding abilities, but I'm not certain.

[G&T]

If MB actually ends up being injured or something, then we have a problem. However, MB is projected to have the best ERA at 4.57? I think Danks will be better than that and MB will be far better if healthy.

 

However, the overall assessment is probably right. This team had enough questions that 84 wins is a reasonable guess, but enough talent that it can make the playoffs if things go right.

[whitesoxfan101]

This seems closer to accurate than baseball prospectus IMO.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The defense is going to make the pitching look worse than it is. I think the hitting will be fine and the pitching too , it's just the defense is below average at many positions. My guestimate is that the Sox defense will lose them 10+ games this year.

[bmags]

yes, hanging onto Vazquez certainly would've helped our projected wins, our actual wins on the other hand, is to be determined.

[elrockinMT]

The lack of defense could very well be the difference. I don't have any good read on how Getz and Ramirez will click. Alexei did a good job at 2B last year and say what you want about Cabrera he was solid at SS. Uribe handled 3B after Joe went down and I think he is a better glove man then Fields, but Josh could be a pleasant surprise. We all know he is no Joe Crede with the glove though. Paiulie can handle 1B sufficiently and always works to improve. The OF will be better if Anderson handles CF. Dye is agood gloveman, but getting slower and Carlos is not a real great fielder by any means.