More evidence against signing FA 1/2/3 starters

[caulfield12]

The Royals were mostly uninvolved this winter in the free-agency cash grab that CC Sabathia and others enjoyed.

 

But their inability to pursue the most expensive free-agent pitchers actually could be in their best interest.

 

The Star consulted with a stats-oriented executive of a major-league organization to find a simple way to judge recent big-money free-agent contracts for starting pitchers.

 

We looked at the 47 contracts worth $5 million or more per year signed by active players, and analyzed their innings pitched, ERA and adjusted ERA for up to three years before and after the contract. Our executive said this would be a crude but effective way to make a judgment.

 

The results are brutal: Thirty pitchers regressed after signing, and only 13 improved. Four contracts were close enough to be judged either way. That’s a fail ratio of 2:1.

 

Generally, teams are better served drafting and developing their starting pitchers — and signing the ones who turn out to extensions.

 

In other words, that's a 64% failure ratio...not very good to play the odds with only a 1 in 3 chance of success...and a 2/3 chance you'll cripple your team financially in the future if things go south.

 

One pitcher who does seem to be working out is Brad Penny, according to Phil Rogers, he has gotten his FB back up to 96. I would feel just a little bit better had we signed Penny AND Colon, but we'll just have to live with what we have and cross our fingers. Rocco Baldelli or Kotsay wouldn't have been too bad at all...BOS did the same thing Kenny Williams was attempting to do, they just had more payroll to work with. Epstein was still able to lower the overall payroll by about $12-15 million.

 

 

[Kyyle23]

I dont know about wishing for Brad Penny. That guy has had a ton of arm issues in the last couple of years, and never really addressed them. He did a lot of the old Joe Crede "im doing an excercise rehab instead of the surgery", and he hasnt been able to stay healthy. He is most certainly still a risk to fall apart

 

Also, Kotsay is starting the season on the DL again with elbow issues.

Edited April 5, 2009 by kyyle23

[danman31]

How does this mean they all failed? Generally pitchers are free agents in their later years so of course they are going to perform below what they did in previous years. That really showed nothing.

[caulfield12]

Maybe failure is "relative," but pitched at a lower level than expected or NOT making the contribution expected would be more fair to say.

 

Which goes back to the premium on young pitching and why we're so fortunate to have come up with Floyd and Danks, because we haven't been able to produce a pitcher of that caliber since Buehrle...or why Walt Jocketty wouldn't part with Homer Bailey for JD.

[danman31]

Maybe failure is "relative," but pitched at a lower level than expected or NOT making the contribution expected would be more fair to say.

Just because the pitcher got paid more than $5 million doesn't mean he was expected to pitch as well as they did before the contract. If you sign a 30-something pitcher, a decline is expected. Also, that doesn't mean the pitcher didn't earn their income, even if they were better the season before.

[caulfield12]

It doesn't matter much anymore, because the White Sox recent history in this area is limited to the likes of David Wells and Jaime Navarro. With the economy being what it is, this is all the more pronounced.

 

We're always (with JR and KW) going to be an organization that will go after 3-5 potential Dankses, Garlands and Floyds instead of shelling out the money for a Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Sheets, Dice-K, etc.

[Chisoxfn]

Develop your own or turn other guys coal into diamonds, that is really the way to do it for the most part. Sure, every once in a while an ace becomes available (see CC) but the number of years you have to go make the contracts so damn risky.