Sox may have best chance to repeat in 2009 of the 3 AL div leaders

[VAfan]

Of the four AL teams to make the playoffs last year, I think it is equally or more likely the Sox will repeat as division champion than the Rays or Angels will.

 

The Angels are missing Escobar, Lackey, and Santana, who start the season on the DL. Their 62-game closer moved on, for a team that overachieved by 11 games from what their run differential would have predicted. Plus, their competition appears to have improved. The Angels may well find their way back to the top of that division, but they aren't going to approach 100 wins in doing so. They'll be lucky to win 90.

 

The Rays are in the very tough AL East. They also overachieved by 5 wins from their expected mark. The Yankees are loaded and motivated, and very likely to knock them off IMHO. Plus, it's one thing to surprise everyone. It's much tougher when people target you. Look at the Sox from 2005-06, or the Tigers fall off after they made the WS. I don't think the Rays will make the playoffs this year.

 

The White Sox, meanwhile, are likely to gain from another infusion of some youth. It was the key to their success last season. If Contreras and Colon (or even just one of them) are able to pitch anywhere near their career norms, then the Sox look to have the best starting pitching in the AL Central, with as good a bullpen as anyone in the division as well. We're also certain to lead the division in HRs, and be competitive in runs scored. Plus, the Sox actually underachieved by a game given their run differential.

 

The team that may be most likely other than the White Sox to repeat is Boston, as a wild card. I see them passing the Rays, and staying ahead of Toronto (which has slipped). Plus, they should win in the low-to-mid 90s, which would be enough to win the AL Central or AL West.

[chisox2334]

too bad i agree if lackey, santana, or escobar were done for yr. Also go look at oak pitching staff, texas staff, and seattle who be at fire sale mode come trade deadline

[bmags]

nice and friendly, VAfan

[elrockinMT]

This was anice friendly and positive report and I am sure that some will carve you to pieces over it. Not me though. Go Sox!

[Chisoxfn]

Your freaking nuts if you don't think the Angels have the best chance of any team in the majors to repeat as divisional champs. The rest of the AL West is a joke. The Sox have serious questions at the top of the order (easily the worse leadoff hitter in baseball) and in the back of the rotation, plus potential health risks from 2 of there 4 relievers (Dotel/Linebrink) and two pitchers who have only one good season under there belts (Danks/Floyd). I'm not writing the Sox off, but they have a lot to prove. All of there competition also has holes too, but there is no way with a straight face I could say the Sox are favorites to take the division (I'd say them and Minnesota are the front-runners though).

[bmags]

mean and cynical, chisoxfan.

[Reddy]

Your freaking nuts if you don't think the Angels have the best chance of any team in the majors to repeat as divisional champs. The rest of the AL West is a joke. The Sox have serious questions at the top of the order (easily the worse leadoff hitter in baseball) and in the back of the rotation, plus potential health risks from 2 of there 4 relievers (Dotel/Linebrink) and two pitchers who have only one good season under there belts (Danks/Floyd). I'm not writing the Sox off, but they have a lot to prove. All of there competition also has holes too, but there is no way with a straight face I could say the Sox are favorites to take the division (I'd say them and Minnesota are the front-runners though).

i actually think you're wrong. The A's have the potential to be a very solid team - and VAfan is right about the weak LAA rotation, and their lineup is weaker than in the past. Tell me how you think they're going to play at a 100 win pace this season.

[Kyyle23]

nice and friendly, VAfan

 

 

mean and cynical, chisoxfan.

 

 

LMAO

[Balta1701]

i actually think you're wrong. The A's have the potential to be a very solid team - and VAfan is right about the weak LAA rotation, and their lineup is weaker than in the past. Tell me how you think they're going to play at a 100 win pace this season.

The thing that might keep them at a 100 win pace is if Seattle and the Rangers are as bad as last year and if Oakland doesn't start hot. Billy Beane isn't going to keep the veterans on that team if they're not winning, we all know that. Holliday, maybe Cabrera, whoever else he can move that isn't cheap will be moved to whatever team will give up talent for them.

[GoSox05]

We could win it, we could lose it. I'm sure something will happen.

[Chisoxfn]

i actually think you're wrong. The A's have the potential to be a very solid team - and VAfan is right about the weak LAA rotation, and their lineup is weaker than in the past. Tell me how you think they're going to play at a 100 win pace this season.

How is the Angels lineup weaker than in the past. Tex was there after the Angels were already dead locks to make the playoffs and now they have added Abreu for a full season and have primarily there entire offense heatlhy. They will need to see who steps up at closer but regardless Shields and Arrondondo both have a ton of talent. The A's did add Holiday, but they also have an atrocious starting rotation as evidenced by there consistent attempts to try and figure out who the heck is going to be pitching for them. I don't buy the A's one b it. Texas is the 2nd best team in that division.

[lostfan]

We could win it, we could lose it. I'm sure something will happen.

Don't want to go too far out on a limb here

[Chisoxfn]

i actually think you're wrong. The A's have the potential to be a very solid team - and VAfan is right about the weak LAA rotation, and their lineup is weaker than in the past. Tell me how you think they're going to play at a 100 win pace this season.

Oh and even without Lackey and Santana to start the season (although both are expected back and do not have a history of extended health problems) they still have Saunders and Weaver whom are both solid starters and a guy like Escobar coming back, prospects like Adenhart and the ability to acquire players (and additional payroll). The Angels also have the best manager in the game (and its not even close) and play above average defense.

 

If the Angels were in the Al East or Central I wouldn't call them locks, but in the West they are a sure thing.

[Balta1701]

How is the Angels lineup weaker than in the past. Tex was there after the Angels were already dead locks to make the playoffs and now they have added Abreu for a full season and have primarily there entire offense heatlhy. They will need to see who steps up at closer but regardless Shields and Arrondondo both have a ton of talent. The A's did add Holiday, but they also have an atrocious starting rotation as evidenced by there consistent attempts to try and figure out who the heck is going to be pitching for them. I don't buy the A's one b it. Texas is the 2nd best team in that division.

Well, it's plausible they could suffer at a couple positions. Vlad may finally be starting to show some age related creakiness. Figgins has been hurt 1/4 of each of the last 2 seasons and is now 31. Torii Hunter isn't a spring chicken any more either. Their lineup may be healthy for now, but you never know how it will play out. They need a couple of Morales, Kendrick, Wood, Aybar, etc., to step up.

[Chisoxfn]

Well, it's plausible they could suffer at a couple positions. Vlad may finally be starting to show some age related creakiness. Figgins has been hurt 1/4 of each of the last 2 seasons and is now 31. Torii Hunter isn't a spring chicken any more either. Their lineup may be healthy for now, but you never know how it will play out. They need a couple of Morales, Kendrick, Wood, Aybar, etc., to step up.

I've been called an Angels apologist in the past, but look at there track record, the people they have, and there ability to develop players and I'll say they are pretty much the next generation of the Braves organization (which is a tribute to former GM Stoneman, who was a Schuerholtz disciple). Plus its pretty given around here how much I like Kendrick, Morales, and Wood. Kendrick has health issues every year though so its hard to count on him, but I like Morales fitting in and Aybar has one hell of an arm and plus range.

 

Plus they took the division by 20+ games IIRC, its not as if a slight slipup would have much of an effect on them and no one in the division significantly upgraded, imo. A's made some big moves but there rotation seems to be completely up in the air and come July will be dealing Holiday and Cabrera.

[elrockinMT]

We could win it, we could lose it. I'm sure something will happen.

 

 

That's my line you are using. I feel strongly both ways about our chances of winnig it all

[Balta1701]

Plus they took the division by 20+ games IIRC, its not as if a slight slipup would have much of an effect on them and no one in the division significantly upgraded, imo. A's made some big moves but there rotation seems to be completely up in the air and come July will be dealing Holiday and Cabrera.

Unless something remarkable happens with the Rangers, I agree that division will be decided by whether or not the A's young pitching can come out hot to start the year, and with a bunch of 21 year olds, it's hard to expect the world.

[Chisoxfn]

Unless something remarkable happens with the Rangers, I agree that division will be decided by whether or not the A's young pitching can come out hot to start the year, and with a bunch of 21 year olds, it's hard to expect the world.

Not to mention I think most experts would agree that most of the A's young pitchers aren't necessarily upper echelon pitching prospects. They have a nice collection of talent, but I'm not overly impressed with what they have.

[GoSox05]

That's my line you are using. I feel strongly both ways about our chances of winnig it all

 

 

Tell me about it. I just don't know. Sometimes you just gotta sit back and see what happens.

[Balta1701]

Not to mention I think most experts would agree that most of the A's young pitchers aren't necessarily upper echelon pitching prospects. They have a nice collection of talent, but I'm not overly impressed with what they have.

Eh, outside of a select few in the David Price class, if they're good enough to make the big leagues I'm not going to write them off just because they're not "upper echelon prospects".

[Chisoxfn]

Look, a team rotation full of Lance Broadway/Jack Egberts (ie, guys who might be big leaguers, might not) is going to be a bad major league baseball team.

[caulfield12]

Oakland has a lesser version now of the next Big 3 arriving, with Anderson expected to make a contribution right away. I think their other two top pitching prospects are at least a year away (one of them got roughed up by the Sox this spring).

 

But when you start the season with Dallas Braden, and Duscherer's out of the rotation indefinitely, well...they're far from a sure thing to do much but improve by about 5 games. Gallagher's not the type to be a huge impact starter, either. Of course, they're just as likely to trade Cabrera, Giambi and Holliday and wait on their pitching to arrive. And you have to wonder how long Ziegler can pitch like Takatsu in 2004.

 

The Angels aren't quite as good on paper, but Wood is getting close, Kendrick is ready for a breakout season, and so is Morales. They have a lot of depth in the OF, even if Guerrero is declining...enough depth to cut Willits, at least. Part of that has to do with the contract of GMJ obviously.

 

The White Sox SHOULD be behind the Twins and even with the Indians, although many are picking CLE as the co-favorites. Cleveland finished strong and they have a really tough line-up from top to bottom...because Shoppach will give you 20-25 homers from catcher and Martinez is better hidden at 1B than catcher. The main questions with them are 1) the defense, 2) the starting rotation and middle relief, 3) Francisco/Choo/Cabrera....can they keep improving offensively or will they regress, and 4) the biggest concern, Travis Hafner. If Hafner's done, this team is much less scary. Although that LaPorta kid from the Sabathia trade might step in and made a huge impact.

 

The Twins on paper have the best pitching, but their bullpen is shaky (it was Nathan's worst year), Ayala was the only addition to set-up, Mijares is overweight....Crede and Punto could both go into the tank offensively, and they really need Span's defense in the OF....Cuddyer and Crede are very, very similar players offensively, which means they're easy to get out...but it all comes down to Mauer and Liriano being All-Stars. If both make the All-Star team, I think that means the Twins end up winning the ALCD.

 

I'll be optimistic...Brian Anderson will replicate Torii Hunter's numbers, play better defense and Willie Taveras/Darnell McDonald will put up even worse numbers, so we won't be able to say we're the most terrible in all of MLB.

Edited April 6, 2009 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Look, a team rotation full of Lance Broadway/Jack Egberts (ie, guys who might be big leaguers, might not) is going to be a bad major league baseball team.

 

I agree, but the Athletics pitchers are all better than that, and that park plays a huge part in their success. I wouldn't write the A's off yet, but I agree that the Angels are the favorite.

[VAfan]

I would give the Sox at least an equal chance of repeating as division champs as the Angels, though I won't quibble with anyone who rates the Angels' prospects higher.

 

I just don't see why so many people are picking the Indians or the Twins or anyone else ahead of us in the AL Central.

 

The Indians got a career year from Cliff Lee last season and it still didn't do them any good. This year, Lee, even if he pitches well, is going to be at least 7 games worse than last season. Where are they going to make that up, and more? Carl Pavano? And you have to project Travis Hafner coming all the way back, or their offense will continue to be no better than the Sox'.

 

The Twins, meanwhile, are missing Mauer, which will seriously hurt their offense. Plus, Liriano isn't looking like the world beater he did before he hurt his arm. He's a quality pitcher, but hasn't shown he's the second coming of Johan Santana yet.

 

Meanwhile, I'll take the Sox' starting 5. I would confess I don't think both Contreras and Colon will make it through the season. But we only need one to be good-average. I think we've got enough depth to cover a 5th slot if one of them can't go. And I'll take Buehrle/Floyd/Danks over any other top-3 in the AL Central. Plus, our bullpen is solid. Clayton Richard would be great down there if he can stay in long relief. We don't have any guys who are going to blow up, like some relievers did last season. And Bobby Jenks is a solid closer.

 

On offense, the worst that can be said is we have one hole in the lineup. But who doesn't? Ozzie will eventually see the light and move Wise/Anderson down to 9th to minimize the damage, playing Anderson more for his exceptional defense. Otherwise, there's no reason to think we can't do better than last season's 811 runs. Fields is going to hit better than what we had at 3B. Getz could come close to matching Cabrera's output. Quentin may not match what he did, even without missing time, but Dye/Konerko/Thome/AJ should do as well. And Ramirez is likely to improve.

 

Plus, we have some great players in AAA this year, which give us insurance should something go wrong. Gordon Beckham, Dayan Viciedo, Aaron Poreda.

 

I don't think this is a dominant Sox team. But I just don't see any of the AL Central rivals as any better than we are.