SoxTalk Official Top 25 Prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

The experts at SoxTalk have created their 2009 list of the Top 25 prospects in the organization. The list was compiled from the individual lists of 5 posters who keep track of such things, as well as input from a handful of others, and then netted out to an overall list using a point system (similar to, say, an AP college sport ranking poll). Clicking on the name of the player will open their AAP (Adopt-A-Prospect) Page - players without AAP pages may be available, so let us know if you want to do an AAP for that player.

 

NOTE: Certain players on the major league roster or with too much time in the majors were left out of consideration, including Chris Getz, Clayton Richard, Brent Lillibridge and a few others (in case you were wondering why they were not on the list). The players on the list are the ones still in what we consider "prospect" status.

 

THE LIST...

 

1. Gordon Beckham

2t. Brandon Allen

2t. Dayan Viciedo

4. Aaron Poreda

5. Tyler Flowers

6. Jordan Danks

7. John Shelby

8. Dexter Carter

9. Jack Egbert

10. Jeff Marquez

11. Brent Morel

12. Dan Hudson

13. Eduardo Escobar

14. Lucas Harrell

15. Jose Martinez

16. Justin Cassel

17. Jon Link

18. Steven Upchurch

19. Brian Omogrosso

20. John Ely

21. Lance Broadway

22. Jon Gilmore

23. Nathan Jones

24. Charlie Shirek

25t. David Cook

25t. CJ Retherford

 

Others receiving votes (in order of votes): Jhonny Nunez, Tyler Kuhn, Santo Luis, Clevelen Santeliz, Santos Rodriguez, Josh Kroeger, Nevin Griffith, Derek Rodriguez, Cole Armstrong, Juan Silverio, Carlos Torres, Stefan Gartrell, Donny Lucy, Miguel Negron, Anthony Carter, Kent Gerst, Drew O'Neill, Kyle McCulloch, Leroy Hunt

 

 

ONE MORE NOTE... The contributors to the list will also be putting up another thread or two on this topic. One will be a "sleepers" list, where each contributor picks one or a few players they see as better than conventional wisdom, and describe why. Watch for that in the next week or two.

 

[BearSox]

I think Allen is too high. He's a very good prospect, but he's still very raw and needs to work on that K:BB ratio. Nevin Griffith, even though he hasn't done much, should be on the list simply because he has more potential then a lot of the guys listed. Also, does Gilmore have an AAP Page yet? I'm gonna have to check in a minute. My quick list would be:

 

1. Gordon Beckham

2. Dayan Viciedo

3. Tyler Flowers

4. Aaron Poreda

5. Brandon Allen

6. John Shelby

7. Jordan Danks

8. Dan Hudson

9. Dexter Carter

10. Ed Escobar

11. Jose Martinez

12. Brent Morel

13. John Ely

14. Justin Cassel

15. Jack Egbert

16. Jeff Marquez

17. Lance Broadway

18. Jon Link

19. Gregory Infante

20. Steve Upchurch

21. Jon Gilmore

22. Lucas Harrell

23. Tyler Kuhn

24. Nevin Griffith

25. C.J. Retherford

_

26. Cole Armstrong/Donny Lucy

27. David Cook

28. Nathan Jones

29. Stefan Gartrell

30. Charlie Shirek

Edited April 12, 2009 by BearSox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

How does Lance Broadway still make these lists?

[BearSox]

How does Lance Broadway still make these lists?

cause he still has potential to be a 5th starter/long reliever. That's more than what we can say for a lot of the lower level pitchers.

[ThunderBolt]

The lack of Michael Dubee in the top five of each of these lists is troubling...kidding... probably.

[maggsmaggs]

Considering Infante's potential and stuff, I would have def. rated him over Broadway, probably Harrell over Lance, too.

Edited April 12, 2009 by maggsmaggs

[NorthSideSox72]

How does Lance Broadway still make these lists?

Prospect projection isn't just about ceiling - its also about odds. People at lower levels have much higher ceilings, but, most of them will flame out before getting to Broadway's level. Its a balance between those things.

 

 

[GoodAsGould]

What level is Steven Upchurch going to be at, didnt see him on Kanny's roster.

[scenario]

What level is Steven Upchurch going to be at, didnt see him on Kanny's roster.

 

He's on Bristol's roster again. He only pitched in 7 games after signing last year.

 

And he's only 19 years old.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

cause he still has potential to be a 5th starter/long reliever. That's more than what we can say for a lot of the lower level pitchers.

Eh. I'd put Ely, Harrell, Nunez, Omogrosso, Egbert, Poreda, Derek Rodriguez, Link, and Marquez ahead of him for sure. Every one of those guys has a ceiling higher than a 6th starter/garbage man, all are starting in Double A or higher, and all have at least as good of a chance to get to the bigs based on how close they already are. I'd also put Santeliz ahead of him as well because even without much control his arm is going to get him a lot more shots than Broadway is ever going to get, and Santeliz at least has a chance to do something special if he makes a big league club at some point. I'd even consider Cassel and Fernando Hernandez ahead of Broadway simply because they have progressed (with the exception being Hernandez struggling after not being able to do anything with Oakland as a Rule-5) and have not miserably failed like Broadway has.

 

Broadway was taken in the first round in the '05 draft as a fast mover. He signed early, went right to W-S, then the next season (2006) started in Birmingham and made Charlotte at the end of the season. He debuted in the Majors at the end of 2007 after starting out in Charlotte, so he was right on track, but then he failed to stick in the bigs the next season even after a huge bullpen implosion and the lack of a fifth starter. Then Mike MacDougal and DJ Carrasco took his spot this spring, and although we never know what crappy player Ozzie and Kenny will call up next, it would at least appear on the surface that there are several much better options than Lance Broadway and that Broadway has fallen behind at least a couple of them. If you look at that 2005 draft, there were a bunch of HS players who have already begun to make their marks in the bigs or at least are very close to making their debut. This is Broadway's third straight season starting in Charlotte.

 

Prospect projection isn't just about ceiling - its also about odds. People at lower levels have much higher ceilings, but, most of them will flame out before getting to Broadway's level. Its a balance between those things.

 

I agree with this in general but ceiling should trump odds at least to a degree anyway. Broadway's ceiling is the type of player that is available every year in FA for the league minimum. In fact, I'd much rather sign a reclamation project like Colon every year for $1M + incentives and gamble for the chance of picking up a #3/#4 for next to nothing than give $400K and a roster spot to some guy who I already know is going to blow chunks. I think it's different with a guy like Cassel for instance who is like a possible 5th starter/longman or whatever, because that guy hasn't had his chance to show he can or cannot make it yet. Broadway will be out of options next ST if he's still in the organization and he doesn't have the type of stuff that makes you take him and hope for a miracle. He's a guy that is there to fill innings in case your starters go down and your season is basically over so you don't mind losing games and you don't want to rush a real prospect.

 

Sorry if my Broadway hatred is too thick, but I just don't see how he can still be called a prospect.

[joejoedairy]

that top 8 plus upchurch make me happy about the "future sox"

[ThunderBolt]

I love the turn-around in our system, we have great things to look forward to for years to come. I'm very excited to see the draft this year, knowing our first pick won't be a safe soft-tosser.

[Chisoxfn]

I think Allen is too high. He's a very good prospect, but he's still very raw and needs to work on that K:BB ratio. Nevin Griffith, even though he hasn't done much, should be on the list simply because he has more potential then a lot of the guys listed. Also, does Gilmore have an AAP Page yet? I'm gonna have to check in a minute. My quick list would be:

 

1. Gordon Beckham

2. Dayan Viciedo

3. Tyler Flowers

4. Aaron Poreda

5. Brandon Allen

6. John Shelby

7. Jordan Danks

8. Dan Hudson

9. Dexter Carter

10. Ed Escobar

11. Jose Martinez

12. Brent Morel

13. John Ely

14. Justin Cassel

15. Jack Egbert

16. Jeff Marquez

17. Lance Broadway

18. Jon Link

19. Gregory Infante

20. Steve Upchurch

21. Jon Gilmore

22. Lucas Harrell

23. Tyler Kuhn

24. Nevin Griffith

25. C.J. Retherford

_

26. Cole Armstrong/Donny Lucy

27. David Cook

28. Nathan Jones

29. Stefan Gartrell

30. Charlie Shirek

Nevin Griffin has had constant injuries and quite frankly I'd have no gripe if he didn't even make the list because there are so many potential questionmarks about his durability. Show me one good reason why a guy like Griffin should be on there. Does he have upside, sure, but there are so many negatives about durability and an overall lack of production (mostly associated with that durability) that in no positive way could you put him higher on the list.

[Chisoxfn]

How does Lance Broadway still make these lists?

Talk to scouts around the bigs and there is still a good amount of them that will tell you that Broadway will have a career in the majors. It probably won't be the Sox, but he can easily fit into the 4th/5th spot of a rotation or be a very valuable long man in a pen.

[Chisoxfn]

He's on Bristol's roster again. He only pitched in 7 games after signing last year.

 

And he's only 19 years old.

A guy that one day, could easily be a top 5 prospect in this system. That day isn't today though.

[SoxAce]

Nathan Jones will surely climb fast after this season.

[Chisoxfn]

Eh. I'd put Ely, Harrell, Nunez, Omogrosso, Egbert, Poreda, Derek Rodriguez, Link, and Marquez ahead of him for sure. Every one of those guys has a ceiling higher than a 6th starter/garbage man, all are starting in Double A or higher, and all have at least as good of a chance to get to the bigs based on how close they already are. I'd also put Santeliz ahead of him as well because even without much control his arm is going to get him a lot more shots than Broadway is ever going to get, and Santeliz at least has a chance to do something special if he makes a big league club at some point. I'd even consider Cassel and Fernando Hernandez ahead of Broadway simply because they have progressed (with the exception being Hernandez struggling after not being able to do anything with Oakland as a Rule-5) and have not miserably failed like Broadway has.

 

Broadway was taken in the first round in the '05 draft as a fast mover. He signed early, went right to W-S, then the next season (2006) started in Birmingham and made Charlotte at the end of the season. He debuted in the Majors at the end of 2007 after starting out in Charlotte, so he was right on track, but then he failed to stick in the bigs the next season even after a huge bullpen implosion and the lack of a fifth starter. Then Mike MacDougal and DJ Carrasco took his spot this spring, and although we never know what crappy player Ozzie and Kenny will call up next, it would at least appear on the surface that there are several much better options than Lance Broadway and that Broadway has fallen behind at least a couple of them. If you look at that 2005 draft, there were a bunch of HS players who have already begun to make their marks in the bigs or at least are very close to making their debut. This is Broadway's third straight season starting in Charlotte.

 

 

 

I agree with this in general but ceiling should trump odds at least to a degree anyway. Broadway's ceiling is the type of player that is available every year in FA for the league minimum. In fact, I'd much rather sign a reclamation project like Colon every year for $1M + incentives and gamble for the chance of picking up a #3/#4 for next to nothing than give $400K and a roster spot to some guy who I already know is going to blow chunks. I think it's different with a guy like Cassel for instance who is like a possible 5th starter/longman or whatever, because that guy hasn't had his chance to show he can or cannot make it yet. Broadway will be out of options next ST if he's still in the organization and he doesn't have the type of stuff that makes you take him and hope for a miracle. He's a guy that is there to fill innings in case your starters go down and your season is basically over so you don't mind losing games and you don't want to rush a real prospect.

 

Sorry if my Broadway hatred is too thick, but I just don't see how he can still be called a prospect.

Actually, he could very well be a poor man's Kyle Loshe, not in the sense that they are at all similar pitchers (stuff wise) but that they both might be guys that you can pencil in for a good number of innings who might keep you in games (obviously, we can argue either way). He could very well be a Joe Mays. You rattle off all of those guys and I can already tell you that most of the guys on that list don't project as starting pitchers and in general, that alone puts there value lower as relief pitchers in general have a much lower value in terms of prospect status (unless you are a potential closer prospect). Omogrosso/Link/Nunez are relief prospects, Omogrosso being my favorite, Nunez being a guy that needs to find a 2nd pitch before he ever makes it (plus command).

 

Broadway is better than Egbert, Marquez (puuhhhlease) and no one will tell me that Harrell or Ely have far better stuff or ceilings than Broadway either(who could be a starter on at least a few major league teams today). So while I might have Broadway moved one way or another on the list, your analysis is off when you talk about the other guys on there, imo, given that no one aside from Omogrosso/Link would even be remotedly considered potential impact guys (and they would be in the pen and both are far from sure things). And Poreda is obviously higher ranked.

[Seymizzle]

I think Allen is too high. He's a very good prospect, but he's still very raw and needs to work on that K:BB ratio. Nevin Griffith, even though he hasn't done much, should be on the list simply because he has more potential then a lot of the guys listed. Also, does Gilmore have an AAP Page yet? I'm gonna have to check in a minute. My quick list would be:

 

1. Gordon Beckham

2. Dayan Viciedo

3. Tyler Flowers

4. Aaron Poreda

5. Brandon Allen

6. John Shelby

7. Jordan Danks

8. Dan Hudson

9. Dexter Carter

10. Ed Escobar

11. Jose Martinez

12. Brent Morel

13. John Ely

14. Justin Cassel

15. Jack Egbert

16. Jeff Marquez

17. Lance Broadway

18. Jon Link

19. Gregory Infante

20. Steve Upchurch

21. Jon Gilmore

22. Lucas Harrell

23. Tyler Kuhn

24. Nevin Griffith

25. C.J. Retherford

_

26. Cole Armstrong/Donny Lucy

27. David Cook

28. Nathan Jones

29. Stefan Gartrell

30. Charlie Shirek

I might of said the same thing about Brandon a couple months ago. However its obvious to everyone now that he's the second best prospect.

[caulfield12]

Carter and Cunningham weren't among our top prospects at the beginning either, not like Sweeney and Gio.

[SoxFan1]

Just for s***zengiggles, I'll post my top 25 through a month and a half or so into the season...

 

1.) Gordon Beckham

2.) Aaron Poreda

3.) Brandon Allen

4.) Tyler Flowers

5.) Dayan Viciedo

6.) Jordan Danks

7.) Dexter Carter

8.) Daniel Hudson

9.) John Shelby Jr.

10.) Brent Morel

11.) Carlos Torres

12.) John Ely

13.) Fernando Hernandez

14.) Jose Martinez

15.) Charlie Shirek

16.) Jon Gilmore

17.) Steven Upchurch

18.) Gregory Infante

19.) Jon Link

20.) Nathan Jones

21.) Charles Leesman

22.) Stefan Gartrell

23.) Brian Omogrosso

24.) CJ Retherford

25.) Christian Marrero

 

Some guys who I left off and just missed the list:

Justin Cassel

Lucas Harrell

Eduardo Escobar

Tyler Kuhn

David Cook

Kyle McCulloch

Clevelan Santeliz

Jhonny Nunez

Derek Rodriguez

[BearSox]

My new top 10:

 

1. Beckham

2. Poreda

3. Hudson

4. Danks

5. Viciedo

6. Flowers

7. Allen

8. Carter

9. Morel

10. Gilmore

[danman31]

My new top 10:

 

1. Beckham

2. Poreda

3. Hudson

4. Danks

5. Viciedo

6. Flowers

7. Allen

8. Carter

9. Morel

10. Gilmore

We disagree on Hudson and Gilmore, but I'm glad I'm not the only one that doesn't get the Allen thing most of the board has.

[daa84]

my top 10

 

1.) Beckham

2.) Flowers

3.) Poreda

4.) Danks

5.) Allen

6.) Viciedo

7.) Hudson

8.) Shelby

9.) Morel

10.) Carter

[Heads22]

We disagree on Hudson and Gilmore, but I'm glad I'm not the only one that doesn't get the Allen thing most of the board has.

 

He's a good prospect, but I'd put him at the top of a second tier.

[maggsmaggs]

Here goes mine:

1) Lord Beckham (well-rounded, not as great a potential as maybe Danks, but much higher probability of reaching potential)

2) Jordan Danks (based on his amazing potential if it all comes together)

3) Dayan Viciedo (40+ HR potential is too good to overlook and he is still very very young in a tough league)

4) Tyler Flowers (again, potential to be a .400+ OBP guy who hits 25+ HR at the catcher spot is tremendous)

5) Aaron Poreda (ceiling of a 2 starter, but has a future at worst of a top set-up man, rich man's Matt Thornton)

6) Brandon Allen (I love this guy, and he keeps improving, great this year with his contact rate, power will come and very athletic for a 1st baseman and most everything I have read says he is a hard worker who loves the game)

7) Dan Hudson (Great control and seems very efficient, not the stuff of a top-tier starter, but should settle in as a solid mid-rotational guy if it all comes together as he rises in the system)

8) Nathan Jones (I just can't get over his vast improvements this year with his control and he has a lethal 1-2 punch of pitches, could be a Jenks-type closer)

9) Charlie Leesman (lefties who throws 95 MPH are hot commodities, solid numbers this year, but he is a guy that is more likely to fail than succeed, but I like his potential)

10) Dex "Knows" Carter (great number this year even though the ERA is 3.86 and he has given up more hits than innings because the Ks are terrific and BBs low; very good stuff and has a terrific 6-6 frame to work with. Another guy that could just lose it like he did at ODU, but potential is great).

 

Next 5 in no order

-Morel

-Omogrosso

-Ely

-Gilmore

-Shirek

Edited May 25, 2009 by maggsmaggs