North Korea Expels UN Nuclear Inspectors

[Balta1701]

Google it, its not hard to find. Not to mention their history has always had them working underground on these things when they had agreements in place. Why would 2007 be any different than any other time?

Don't you think I tried before asking? Whatever you're saying they did just isn't something that has been published out there, at least not obviously. Give you an example...in 2007 they agreed to the latest framework, in 2008 things had improved enough that that terrorist-loving-communist-appeaser George W. Bush hailed their performance and had them dropped from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. So, I'd like to know what evidence you've read that they continued with their nuclear development programs from 2007 through just now. Not just supposition.

[southsider2k5]

Because the only coherent interpretation of that statement or this one, frankly, is that you think war would be a better option. Do you think I'd prefer the Kims stay and the government keep its power? Do you think that I like the situation we're in, where they constantly make small military gains to extort concessions from the west, is a good one? Clearly a better option would be to have the North Korean people rise up and cast him out tomorrow, but we don't have the ability to magically make that happen.

 

So, I'm left with your statement that we'd be better off not enabling him. This is not a solution, it's a cop-out, a catch-22...because if we stop negotiating with them, we're enabling them by allowing them to continue demonizing the west while at the same time working on their weapons programs and even selling them off to other countries, or if we do continue negotiating with them, we're enabling them by negotiating with them and providing them supplies that allow them to stay in power.

 

The whole point I'm trying to make here is that yes, it would be nice if things were better, if we didn't have to keep stringing along this madman. But simply imagining that things were better isn't going to make it so.

 

This has been our policy for the better part of a couple of decades now. The copout has been to keep sending him the means to stay in power instead of actually taking a stand against a murderous madman.

 

Il is still demonizing the west, starving his people, and engaging in his WMD programs. He has already been at the center of proliferation from NK to Pakistan, and most likely from Pakistan to Iran. What exactly have we stopped? How is this better than any other scenario?

[southsider2k5]

Don't you think I tried before asking? Whatever you're saying they did just isn't something that has been published out there, at least not obviously. Give you an example...in 2007 they agreed to the latest framework, in 2008 things had improved enough that that terrorist-loving-communist-appeaser George W. Bush hailed their performance and had them dropped from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. So, I'd like to know what evidence you've read that they continued with their nuclear development programs from 2007 through just now. Not just supposition.

 

How about the very first link under North Korea underground Nuclear program dated Feb 2009?

 

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/ar...s/20090219.aspx

[Balta1701]

How about the very first link under North Korea underground Nuclear program dated Feb 2009?

 

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/ar...s/20090219.aspx

When I checked that report earlier, I found it interesting how no one else seemed to pick up on it or believe it. Not even the South Koren press seemed to run with it.

[mr_genius]

Except in 2007, when they shuttered their programs, turned over a lot of their equipment, and let the U.N. waltz right in. It was pretty effective then.

 

the proverbial 'dog and pony show'

 

 

[Rex Kickass]

Stop supporting the regime that is killing their own people at an alarming rate? We keep negotiating with them and they still keep going forward doing whatever the hell they want to anyway, and getting more out of it. How is what we have been doing for decades working by any stretch of the imagination.

 

The returns have been greatly diminished each time they play this game. Last time, I think they just got a couple tankers of heavy oil. This has much more to do with internal appearances rather than external. Kim Jong Il needed a successful launch, and he didn't get it. He needs to look strong internationally to cement his spot at the top - which from what I've recently read his power seems to be crumbling a bit.

[Rex Kickass]

I'll throw something out there... North Korea is not run amok with religious extremists or anything like that, and I think they'd recover relatively quickly under decent leadership. So I'll say it. I think they are a good candidate for a CIA-assisted coup d'etat.

 

Thoughts?

 

Absolutely not. The truth is, that since North Korea is a defacto nuclear state - although regime change may be a desired goal, an attempted coup runs too great a risk of serious destabilization which would put the arsenal at risk. Also, if the coup fails, North Korea may feel no degree of protection and that would bring real risk of an invasion to the South.

 

For all the horrible things that the North has done to its people, in international relations purpose, it has acted very much like a rational actor. It takes aggressive and provocative stands when it fears the current situation. But none of these stands seems to seriously threaten the current order. They tend to be defensive in nature.

 

So what will happen? North Korea will make the motions of putting out UN inspectors, they may even actually leave the country for a few weeks. They will make a deal for some very small token amount of aid, and the six party talks will start again. Because the US seems to be more interested in playing the role of honest broker right now, the chances are these tasks could go very well.

[southsider2k5]

Absolutely not. The truth is, that since North Korea is a defacto nuclear state - although regime change may be a desired goal, an attempted coup runs too great a risk of serious destabilization which would put the arsenal at risk. Also, if the coup fails, North Korea may feel no degree of protection and that would bring real risk of an invasion to the South.

 

For all the horrible things that the North has done to its people, in international relations purpose, it has acted very much like a rational actor. It takes aggressive and provocative stands when it fears the current situation. But none of these stands seems to seriously threaten the current order. They tend to be defensive in nature.

 

So what will happen? North Korea will make the motions of putting out UN inspectors, they may even actually leave the country for a few weeks. They will make a deal for some very small token amount of aid, and the six party talks will start again. Because the US seems to be more interested in playing the role of honest broker right now, the chances are these tasks could go very well.

 

Honestly, does anyone else think that NK, even if they wanted to, has the means to invade SK? If they are scraping by on fuel and food, how the heck would they muster up enough rations and energy to move a million man army across the DMZ? Unless they plan on fighting like Russia with the four bullet allotment and walking to the border, I am just not convinced they have the means to do it.

 

I will also swear up and down that the biggest reason they don't want to invade is the same reason they don't let ANYTHING in from the outside in the first place. If the people of NK saw how the rest of the world around them lives, they would overthrow Il, like yesterday. The military would throw down their arms quicker than the Iraqi armies did in both gulf wars.

[StrangeSox]

Honestly, does anyone else think that NK, even if they wanted to, has the means to invade SK? If they are scraping by on fuel and food, how the heck would they muster up enough rations and energy to move a million man army across the DMZ? Unless they plan on fighting like Russia with the four bullet allotment and walking to the border, I am just not convinced they have the means to do it.

 

I will also swear up and down that the biggest reason they don't want to invade is the same reason they don't let ANYTHING in from the outside in the first place. If the people of NK saw how the rest of the world around them lives, they would overthrow Il, like yesterday. The military would throw down their arms quicker than the Iraqi armies did in both gulf wars.

 

I know I've read that US losses are estimated to be as high as 95% in the DMZ if NK ever decided to roll through full-force. They might not be able to take and hold SK, but they could put up a hell of a fight.

[NorthSideSox72]

I know I've read that US losses are estimated to be as high as 95% in the DMZ if NK ever decided to roll through full-force. They might not be able to take and hold SK, but they could put up a hell of a fight.

And after NK rolled into SK, the NK army would be annihilated in SK and NK, we'd take over the government there with SK's help, and we'd get a unified Korea. Good end game, but it would cost tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives to achieve it.

 

[Balta1701]

I know I've read that US losses are estimated to be as high as 95% in the DMZ if NK ever decided to roll through full-force. They might not be able to take and hold SK, but they could put up a hell of a fight.

There's a reason why we've built the world's biggest minefield there.