Interesting Oz quote about Gavin Floyd

[Chisoxfn]

Floyd will get his s*** together, I know it.

[southsider2k5]

Here's my question. At what point do we swallow 15 million? Because if the idea is that we keep running him out there because we gave him this contract, somebody needs to lecture this organization on the economic concept of a sunk cost.

 

If this guy has an ERA even above 6.00 (let alone above 7.00) by the all-star break, we potentially have a major meltdown on our hands.

 

I'd give him 3 more starts and then if the regression continues, I don't know what you can do but find out what else you have in the minors to potentially replace him.

 

Good God. We aren't going to eat a 4 year contract, in MAY.

[witesoxfan]

Here's my question. At what point do we swallow 15 million? Because if the idea is that we keep running him out there because we gave him this contract, somebody needs to lecture this organization on the economic concept of a sunk cost.

 

If this guy has an ERA even above 6.00 (let alone above 7.00) by the all-star break, we potentially have a major meltdown on our hands.

 

I'd give him 3 more starts and then if the regression continues, I don't know what you can do but find out what else you have in the minors to potentially replace him.

 

I'm not going to claim to know what's wrong with Floyd. But he's a better pitcher than he is right now, and it's only been 7 starts. He may never justify that $15 million contract, but he will be right around a league average pitcher for the duration of the contract, and he could very easily be gone by the end of that.

 

Posts, such as those quoted, are absolutely hilarious. The fact that people are this close to the ledge with this many players is absurd. 3 more starts? Really? After he threw 206 innings of good baseball last year? You're willing to give up on him after 3 more starts? You may as well just jump off that ledge, because if you don't, I might come and push you off.

[Greg Hibbard]

I'm not going to claim to know what's wrong with Floyd. But he's a better pitcher than he is right now, and it's only been 7 starts. He may never justify that $15 million contract, but he will be right around a league average pitcher for the duration of the contract, and he could very easily be gone by the end of that.

 

Posts, such as those quoted, are absolutely hilarious. The fact that people are this close to the ledge with this many players is absurd. 3 more starts? Really? After he threw 206 innings of good baseball last year? You're willing to give up on him after 3 more starts? You may as well just jump off that ledge, because if you don't, I might come and push you off.

 

The fact of the matter is Floyd was a questionable signing, as anyone with any sort of brain predicted a massive regression due to the numbers. You speak as if Floyd's previous struggles were wiped completely off the plate. What percentage of his major league starts overall have been quality starts?

 

Again, I ask AT WHAT POINT do we swallow 15 million? I'd like to give him 3 more starts and then SEE WHAT ELSE WE HAVE to POTENTIALLY replace him. Please read my post literally. I don't know how else to rephrase it. If he's 11-12 starts in with a 7+ era, we have to start at least prepping for 2010 with him potentially not making major league starts for us. To run him out there to give up 7,8,9 per game is not going to give us the 15 million back.

 

I am admittedly no fan of this player, but jesus, his cumulative 2009 stats, no matter how small the sample size, make him the WORST pitcher in the AL.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The fact of the matter is Floyd was a questionable signing, as anyone with any sort of brain predicted a massive regression due to the numbers. You speak as if Floyd's previous struggles were wiped completely off the plate. What percentage of his major league starts overall have been quality starts?

 

Again, I ask AT WHAT POINT do we swallow 15 million? I'd like to give him 3 more starts and then SEE WHAT ELSE WE HAVE to POTENTIALLY replace him. Please read my post literally. I don't know how else to rephrase it. If he's 11-12 starts in with a 7+ era, we have to start at least prepping for 2010 with him potentially not making major league starts for us. To run him out there to give up 7,8,9 per game is not going to give us the 15 million back.

 

I am admittedly no fan of this player, but jesus, his cumulative 2009 stats, no matter how small the sample size, make him the WORST pitcher in the AL.

 

Nice hyperbole, but its not true.

[Greg Hibbard]

Nice hyperbole, but its not true.

 

By all means, correct me. Statistically speaking, who is the worst AL starter of 2009?

 

Just to be clear, is the position that you are advocating to keep throwing him, no matter how bad the numbers all, all season? If he has an 10 ERA with a 2+ WHIP?

[Balta1701]

By all means, correct me. Statistically speaking, who is the worst AL starter of 2009?

 

Just to be clear, is the position that you are advocating to keep throwing him, no matter how bad the numbers all, all season? If he has an 10 ERA with a 2+ WHIP?

Chien Ming Wang.

 

If Gavin winds up staying this nasty, do what the Yankees did with their Wang, put it on the DL until it can perform better.

[southsider2k5]

Chien Ming Wang.

 

If Gavin winds up staying this nasty, do what the Yankees did with their Wang, put it on the DL until it can perform better.

 

And its not even close. Hell I would even say Jose Contreras has been worse than Gavin.

[witesoxfan]

By all means, correct me. Statistically speaking, who is the worst AL starter of 2009?

 

Just to be clear, is the position that you are advocating to keep throwing him, no matter how bad the numbers all, all season? If he has an 10 ERA with a 2+ WHIP?

 

Quentin's hitting .235, when are the Sox going to consider moving on from him? Alexei had an OPS of .500 going into today, do you consider next year without him if he hasn't gotten his average up to .250 in 12 days?

 

Yes, I'm going to keep throwing him no matter what. Because he's not a 7+ ERA pitcher, and he's not a 6+ ERA pitcher. He's not really a 5+ ERA pitcher either.

 

Just to keep it in perspective, Johan Santana was 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA after his first 12. After that, he was 19-3 with a 1.36 ERA the rest of the way. I'm not suggesting Gavin Floyd is going to put up a 1.36 ERA in his last 22 starts; I am suggesting that it's a bit early for you to be freaking out about 7 starts.

[Kalapse]

By all means, correct me. Statistically speaking, who is the worst AL starter of 2009?

Carlos Silva

[Greg Hibbard]

Chien Ming Wang.

 

If Gavin winds up staying this nasty, do what the Yankees did with their Wang, put it on the DL until it can perform better.

 

And that's what I'm advocating - we need to have a plan B and C for what's happening with this. I'm not saying ditch him outright in May of the first year of his contract, but we'd better damn well know what else we have to work with if we're stuck with this f***ing contract for four years. It's all about options.

 

I just don't know what you do with him if he pitches the entire season abominably badly.

 

Also, to be fair, Gavin Floyd strung together just 4 good months in 2008, from April through July. Those were exceptionally good months, to be fair, but over his last 13 starts in August September and October, he had a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

[southsideirish71]

Gavin's velocity is good, his curve still has tilt to it and his slider is still good. The bad, he is not throwing strikes early in the count where he can use his plus breaking pitch. His fastball while 92-93 is still straight so he gets hit. Its not like he has lost velocity or his breaking pitch has vanished. He starts hitting his spots earlier in the count and his results will start to come better. For the cost of Gavin, and his youth pannicking and giving up on him would be silly. Its not like we are loaded with pitching depth in the minors. Lets see if he can start to pound the zone more with strikes and then lets see what happens. Watching people get so bent over Gavin after 7 starts is funny. Is he an ace, no. Is he a decent pitcher who has the peripherals to have outstanding outings if he has command, yes.

 

 

Edited May 13, 2009 by southsideirish71

[witesoxfan]

And that's what I'm advocating - we need to have a plan B and C for what's happening with this. I'm not saying ditch him outright in May of the first year of his contract, but we'd better damn well know what else we have to work with if we're stuck with this f***ing contract for four years. It's all about options.

 

I just don't know what you do with him if he pitches the entire season abominably badly.

 

Also, to be fair, Gavin Floyd strung together just 4 good months in 2008, from April through July. Those were exceptionally good months, to be fair, but over his last 13 starts in August September and October, he had a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

 

To be fair, Gavin Floyd had a good 2008. Cherry pick all you want, his full season totals were good.

[Dick Allen]

And that's what I'm advocating - we need to have a plan B and C for what's happening with this. I'm not saying ditch him outright in May of the first year of his contract, but we'd better damn well know what else we have to work with if we're stuck with this f***ing contract for four years. It's all about options.

 

I just don't know what you do with him if he pitches the entire season abominably badly.

 

Also, to be fair, Gavin Floyd strung together just 4 good months in 2008, from April through July. Those were exceptionally good months, to be fair, but over his last 13 starts in August September and October, he had a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

I'm no Gavin Floyd fan, in fact I'm far more surprised by his year last year than his struggles this season, and agree his contract extension was pre-mature, but, as evidenced last night, the Sox have no better options. Floyd won't have a 7.00 ERA when the season is done. It very well could be over 5.00, but there is no replacement. We just have to hope he's as good as others think he is, because if he's not, its going to be a long, boring season.

[Chisoxfn]

To be fair, Gavin Floyd had a good 2008. Cherry pick all you want, his full season totals were good.

And if he was lucky in the first half, he was actually unlucky in the second half cause he was a much better "pitcher" in the 2nd half. And I speak of the intangibles, not what the f***ing stats show. He grew so much in the 2nd half of last season and I continue to say I'm not worried about Gavin. I will say that he needs to man the f*** up though.

[caulfield12]

And if he was lucky in the first half, he was actually unlucky in the second half cause he was a much better "pitcher" in the 2nd half. And I speak of the intangibles, not what the f***ing stats show. He grew so much in the 2nd half of last season and I continue to say I'm not worried about Gavin. I will say that he needs to man the f*** up though.

 

 

He'll have his chance soon enough. A Sunday start against Doc Halladay on a surface that's like kryptonite for the White Sox typically.

[Greg Hibbard]

To be fair, Gavin Floyd had a good 2008. Cherry pick all you want, his full season totals were good.

 

Let's look a little more closely at the numbers.

 

His last 20 major league starts (perhaps the most important in terms of trends):

 

117.1 IP, 143 H, 39BB, 74 ER, 5.68 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

 

His good stretch from September 2007-July 2008 (26 starts long):

 

131.1 IP, 105 H, 54BB, 50 ER, 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

 

Note that his BB/IP ratio is about the same between his good stretch of 26 games and his most recent bad stretch of 20 games. Also note that a 1.21 WHIP is not that impressive, and that's his best stretch over his career, truly "cherry picking" (if we can even call a 1.21 WHIP a cherry).

 

His career numbers outside of that ONE good stretch (43 starts long, and includes non-start innings as well):

 

293 IP, 348 H, 124BB, 195 ER, 5.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP.

 

"Cherry picking", to me, is taking 5 good months out of an otherwise HORRENDOUS major league career and being patient on that alone, particularly when the last 4 months (now almost as long!) has been bad.

 

His CAREER era over 69 starts and 80 games played is above 5. And you're telling me that this is not a 5+ ERA pitcher????

 

Again, admittedly: I never liked trading for this player, never really thought much of him, never thought he had what it took physically or in terms of general makeup to be much better than an average-at-best pitcher,and didn't think what he was doing would last. I strongly believed in the luck factor last year, based on what I saw not only in 2007, but in 2006 and the two-three years he had been pitching at the major league level before.

 

Out of curiosity, why are you so quickly to put stock in the 26 good starts he was able to string together, that sabremetrically has been explained as having a high luck factor, instead of the 43 bad starts he's had which make up the better part of his major league career? Perhaps more importantly, why does his stretch of 26 great starts from 2007-2008 mean so much more to you than his most recent 20 starts?

Edited May 13, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

[Greg Hibbard]

Gavin Floyd is Rex Grossman, ladies and gentlemen. There, I said it.

[southsider2k5]

Let's look a little more closely at the numbers.

 

His last 20 major league starts (perhaps the most important in terms of trends):

 

117.1 IP, 143 H, 39BB, 74 ER, 5.68 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

 

His good stretch from September 2007-July 2008 (26 starts long):

 

131.1 IP, 105 H, 54BB, 50 ER, 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

 

Note that his BB/IP ratio is about the same between his good stretch of 26 games and his most recent bad stretch of 20 games. Also note that a 1.21 WHIP is not that impressive, and that's his best stretch over his career, truly "cherry picking" (if we can even call a 1.21 WHIP a cherry).

 

His career numbers outside of that ONE good stretch (43 starts long, and includes non-start innings as well):

 

293 IP, 348 H, 124BB, 195 ER, 5.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP.

 

"Cherry picking", to me, is taking 5 good months out of an otherwise HORRENDOUS major league career and being patient on that alone, particularly when the last 4 months (now almost as long!) has been bad.

 

His CAREER era over 69 starts and 80 games played is above 5. And you're telling me that this is not a 5+ ERA pitcher????

 

Again, admittedly: I never liked trading for this player, never really thought much of him, never thought he had what it took physically or in terms of general makeup to be much better than an average-at-best pitcher,and didn't think what he was doing would last. I strongly believed in the luck factor last year, based on what I saw not only in 2007, but in 2006 and the two-three years he had been pitching at the major league level before.

 

Out of curiosity, why are you so quickly to put stock in the 26 good starts he was able to string together, that sabremetrically has been explained as having a high luck factor, instead of the 43 bad starts he's had which make up the better part of his major league career? Perhaps more importantly, why does his stretch of 26 great starts from 2007-2008 mean so much more to you than his most recent 20 starts?

 

You do realize that plenty of pitchers have had really bad starts to their careers. Would you consider Greg Maddux a 5.00 era pitcher? How about Randy Johnson? Right off of the top of my head, I believe they fall in that category as well. I am not saying that Gavin will be one of those guys, but when history tells you that it is way too early, it is probably too early to completely write off someone. Heck Doc Halladay had an era over 10 in his third go around at the major league level in 13 starts. It didn't end his career.

[Greg Hibbard]

You do realize that plenty of pitchers have had really bad starts to their careers. Would you consider Greg Maddux a 5.00 era pitcher? How about Randy Johnson? Right off of the top of my head, I believe they fall in that category as well. I am not saying that Gavin will be one of those guys, but when history tells you that it is way too early, it is probably too early to completely write off someone. Heck Doc Halladay had an era over 10 in his third go around at the major league level in 13 starts. It didn't end his career.

 

Greg Maddux spent 36 starts around 5.00 era, then never looked back after that.

Randy Johnson took about 40 starts to straighten himself out.

You're talking about 33 total starts for Halladay, including his 13 start 10+ era meltdown.

 

I'm talking about 69 starts with a 5.20 career ERA. 69 starts is a lot longer than those guys.

[Dick Allen]

Greg Maddux spent 36 starts around 5.00 era, then never looked back after that.

Randy Johnson took about 40 starts to straighten himself out.

You're talking about 33 total starts for Halladay, including his 13 start 10+ era meltdown.

 

I'm talking about 69 starts with a 5.20 career ERA. 69 starts is a lot longer than those guys.

Yeah, we'll those guys didn't have Coop to fix 'em. Gavin is going to Cooperstown.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Let's look a little more closely at the numbers.

 

His last 20 major league starts (perhaps the most important in terms of trends):

 

117.1 IP, 143 H, 39BB, 74 ER, 5.68 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

 

His good stretch from September 2007-July 2008 (26 starts long):

 

131.1 IP, 105 H, 54BB, 50 ER, 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

 

Note that his BB/IP ratio is about the same between his good stretch of 26 games and his most recent bad stretch of 20 games. Also note that a 1.21 WHIP is not that impressive, and that's his best stretch over his career, truly "cherry picking" (if we can even call a 1.21 WHIP a cherry).

 

His career numbers outside of that ONE good stretch (43 starts long, and includes non-start innings as well):

 

293 IP, 348 H, 124BB, 195 ER, 5.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP.

 

"Cherry picking", to me, is taking 5 good months out of an otherwise HORRENDOUS major league career and being patient on that alone, particularly when the last 4 months (now almost as long!) has been bad.

 

His CAREER era over 69 starts and 80 games played is above 5. And you're telling me that this is not a 5+ ERA pitcher????

 

Again, admittedly: I never liked trading for this player, never really thought much of him, never thought he had what it took physically or in terms of general makeup to be much better than an average-at-best pitcher,and didn't think what he was doing would last. I strongly believed in the luck factor last year, based on what I saw not only in 2007, but in 2006 and the two-three years he had been pitching at the major league level before.

 

Out of curiosity, why are you so quickly to put stock in the 26 good starts he was able to string together, that sabremetrically has been explained as having a high luck factor, instead of the 43 bad starts he's had which make up the better part of his major league career? Perhaps more importantly, why does his stretch of 26 great starts from 2007-2008 mean so much more to you than his most recent 20 starts?

 

Let's pretend for a second that I agree with you (I don't). Who exactly are we replacing Gavin with if the White Sox were to somehow adopt your doom_and_gloom scenario? You do realize that this team has ZERO depth. I mean NONE. And this is mostly on Kenny and our scouting department. We have no viable options (and this has already been proven) waiting in the wings in the event of injury/poor performance.

[Dick Allen]

Let's pretend for a second that I agree with you (I don't). Who exactly are we replacing Gavin with if the White Sox were to somehow adopt your doom_and_gloom scenario? You do realize that this team has ZERO depth. I mean NONE. And this is mostly on Kenny and our scouting department. We have no viable options (and this has already been proven) waiting in the wings in the event of injury/poor performance.

I agree with him about Gavin and agree with you about a replacement. The Sox can't upgrade an 0-5 8+ ERA Contreras. What is the next guy in line going to do?

[StrangeSox]

I agree with him about Gavin and agree with you about a replacement. The Sox can't upgrade an 0-5 8+ ERA Contreras. What is the next guy in line going to do?

 

That's the worst part about this mess. KW apparently had no plans for Contreras or Colon either sucking or being injured for a length of time. Now we have Contreras gone due to performance, Floyd doing very poorly and you still have injury/ suck potential out there in Colon.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I agree with him about Gavin and agree with you about a replacement. The Sox can't upgrade an 0-5 8+ ERA Contreras. What is the next guy in line going to do?

 

A decade of ineptitude in regards to drafting and player development has handicapped this team big time. And unlike a team like the Cubs, who have been just as bad if not worse in this department, we don't get 40K every night no matter if were in first or last (I.E. we don't have damn near an unlimited amount of money to throw at all our problems as they do). Look at teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox. These guys are spitting out impact players from their system at a crazy ass rate. We look to be turning it around. But we won't reap the benefits of what looks to be an improved system until 2010 at the absolute earliest.