AND THAT'S A WHITE SOX WINNER!!!!!

[lostfan]

I don't follow.

I mean that when people cite BABIP they do it to show there's a fluke or what have you, like if their BABIP is really low then they must be lucky. But there is no significant gap between Danks's BABIP and his actual BAA so he must just be inducing those outs on his own, and it's not a fluke.

 

I need to start a thread on this, I think BABIP is kind of a borderline useless stat most of the time because people cite it when they shouldn't (I'm not saying you did, I actually don't know what you were trying to say).

Edited April 23, 2009 by lostfan

[Chet Lemon]

The offense should kill tonight. Eaton's stats for the last four years--including this one--have been awful.

[Pants Rowland]

Good pitchers make hitters make poor contact?

 

I mean that when people cite BABIP they do it to show there's a fluke or what have you, like if their BABIP is really low then they must be lucky. But there is no significant gap between Danks's BABIP and his actual BAA so he must just be inducing those outs on his own, and it's not a fluke.

 

I think BABIP is kind of a borderline useless stat most of the time because people cite it when they shouldn't.

 

I have seen this stat cited quite a bit lately on this board. I believe Gavin Floyd got hit with it a lot last year and now I see it referenced to Danks. However, BABIP should be a derivative of BAA, correct? I mean, wouldn't the only difference between the two stats be strikeouts? Then of course, BAA would always be lower than BABIP, or am I mistaken?

 

Anyway, as far as I am concerned, certain pitchers make it difficult for hitters to square up their pitches and may have a BABIP much lower than the league average. I have not looked at Danks' career figure for this, but he clearly makes life difficult on the hitters. When they do get wood on the ball, it has not been spectacular from what I have seen. Further, it is not as if the White Sox defense is so outstanding to make him that much better a pitcher. Finally, with the exception of the HR, and the catch Dye made on Markakis' ball, the O's were not getting the best lumber on Danks either last night. If he avoids the Verducci Effect this year, I see no reason for him to regress.

[JorgeFabregas]

I mean that when people cite BABIP they do it to show there's a fluke or what have you, like if their BABIP is really low then they must be lucky. But there is no significant gap between Danks's BABIP and his actual BAA so he must just be inducing those outs on his own, and it's not a fluke.

 

I need to start a thread on this, I think BABIP is kind of a borderline useless stat most of the time because people cite it when they shouldn't (I'm not saying you did, I actually don't know what you were trying to say).

What does a gap have to do with it? That's what I'm not following. Large gap=strikeouts. Anyway, he had a BABIP of .295 last year--which is right around what is expected--so if he repeats last year's performance and perhaps improves on it a bit (his K rate is up a little) everyone will be happy. I don't think anyone is expecting him to keep up a .95 ERA.

Edited April 23, 2009 by JorgeFabregas

[lostfan]

What does a gap have to do with it? That's what I'm not following. Large gap=strikeouts. Anyway, he had a BABIP of .295 last year--which is right around what is expected--so if he repeats last year's performance and perhaps improves on it a bit (his K rate is up a little) everyone will be happy. I don't think anyone is expecting him to keep up a .95 ERA.

No, of course nobody sane expects him to keep up this pace. I just don't like when people bring up a pitcher's low BABIP as if the pitcher has zero control over what they can make the batter do when the ball goes into play (I really doubt that's what you were doing, it sounded like you were just saying his BABIP was impossibly low just like his ERA, so my bad if I wasn't clear on what I meant).

 

A gap has more to with hitters, even still, if you suck you're going to have a low BABIP and if you're good it'll be high. I think that gets overlooked a lot.

[JorgeFabregas]

I just don't like when people bring up a pitcher's low BABIP as if the pitcher has zero control over what they can make the batter do when the ball goes into play (I really doubt that's what you were doing, it sounded like you were just saying his BABIP was impossibly low just like his ERA, so my bad if I wasn't clear on what I meant).

It's not that a pitcher has zero control exactly, but almost all pitchers are going to swing back to .300 or thereabouts for BABIP

 

For instance, the aforementioned Gavin Floyd:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...7&type=full

 

I think Gavin will be fine despite a likely upswing from last year because I think his K:BB rate is going to improve (as it did in the second half of last year) vs. last year's totals.

[lostfan]

It's not that a pitcher has zero control exactly, but almost all pitchers are going to swing back to .300 or thereabouts for BABIP

 

For instance, the aforementioned Gavin Floyd:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...7&type=full

 

I think Gavin will be fine despite a likely upswing from last year because I think his K:BB rate is going to improve (as it did in the second half of last year) vs. last year's totals.

Right, I agree that there is no way that Danks is going to sustain a BABIP in the mid 100s. If he did he would have a WHIP of like .90 and lead the league in ERA by a full point.

[Balta1701]

Right, I agree that there is no way that Danks is going to sustain a BABIP in the mid 100s. If he did he would have a WHIP of like .90 and lead the league in ERA by a full point.

Which, honestly, would be kinda cool.

[lostfan]

Which, honestly, would be kinda cool.

Just a little bit.

[southsider2k5]

The best part of this game is that it clinches this as a winning road trip for the Sox with their fifth win in the eight games so far. We can mark this one down as a success.

[Kyyle23]

The best part of this game is that it clinches this as a winning road trip for the Sox with their fifth win in the eight games so far. We can mark this one down as a success.

 

considering the dread we all were feeling going into Tampa, this trip is a tremendous success to me

[ChiSox_Sonix]

The offense should kill tonight. Eaton's stats for the last four years--including this one--have been awful.