Without pitching, no playoffs

[caulfield12]

2000 4.67 ERA, 4th in AL, 95-67

2005 3.61 ERA, T1st in AL, 99-63

2008 4.06 ERA, 6th in AL, 89-74

 

2003 4.17 ERA, 4th in AL, 88-74 (arguably one of our best teams this decade)

2006 4.61 ERA, 10th in AL, 90-72 (3rd in AL runs scored, but not enough to make up for pitching)

 

2001 4.55 ERA, 8th in AL, 83-79

2002 4.53 ERA, 8th in AL, 81-81

2004 4.91 ERA, 12th in AL, 83-79

2007 4.77 ERA, 12th in AL, 72-90

 

2009 4.71 ERA, 8th in AL

 

Conclusions:

 

1) Recent Sox history would indicate we're a team that will top out at 83 wins.

2) We're an abysmal 13th in the AL in runs scored, and we are leading OAK only because they have played 2 less games. Not to mention the fact that we simply don't have the type of offensive firepower to compensate for below league-average pitching like we did in 2006.

 

 

KC and Detroit are the two teams most likely to win the division, IMO, unless Minnesota sees a dramatic improvement in their starting rotation (Liriano/Baker). One could argue that 83 wins will be enough to take this division, but that hasn't typically been the case that a team in our division finished first with less than 85 wins, maybe it was the Minnesota Twins one of the years they won the World Series (1987/1991).

 

Realistically, we're very fortunate to be at .500 when you consider Contreras, Ramirez's struggles, injuries and all the line-ups with Lillibridge, Miller, Owens and Pods. We could just as easily be 11-13 or 10-14.

Edited May 4, 2009 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

well of course if the sox didnt have a pitching staff they couldnt win. Would the MLB let them play without a pitching staff? hmmmm

[Dick Allen]

Obviously pitching is the key to winning. If Contreras had an ERA of 5.50 vs. what it is now, how would the ERA rank? I expect him to be better. I think everyone knows if Floyd's ERA hovers around 5 the White Sox are in trouble. Its still way too early, but if Corky Miller is batting 6th, chances are the offense isn't going to put too many runs on the board.

 

The fact that they are .500 is encouraging. If they can stay there they will have a chance. If not, its drop the payroll even more, raise ticket prices even more and flashback to 1999.

[caulfield12]

4.37 if Contreras had an ERA of around 5.50, and SIXTH in the AL.

 

However, even at 6th in the AL, we have one of the worst offenses (currently) in baseball. Yes, that will turn around and come back to at least league-average (barring any more injuries, or Quentin/Thome/Dye/Konerko missing extended time), but that won't be good enough.

 

Assuming (a big one) that Contreras had 3 quality starts in a row, then you're also going to expect Buerhle and Colon to continue pitching so well? That Colon won't miss a start for most of the season? It looks like Floyd will be inconsistent and around .500, and that Danks is starting to press a little bit because of the lack of offensive support.

 

It will be VERY interesting to see how this team responds psychologically to the challenge of facing Greinke and Davies (Sox killer since 08) on the road. KC's back in first place by 1/2 game, along with the Tigers. Will we get any clutch hits or continue to struggle?

Edited May 4, 2009 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

4.37 if Contreras had an ERA of around 5.50, and SIXTH in the AL.

 

However, even at 6th in the AL, we have one of the worst offenses (currently) in baseball. Yes, that will turn around and come back to at least league-average (barring any more injuries, or Quentin/Thome/Dye/Konerko missing extended time), but that won't be good enough.

 

Assuming (a big one) that Contreras had 3 quality starts in a row, then you're also going to expect Buerhle and Colon to continue pitching so well? That Colon won't miss a start for most of the season? It looks like Floyd will be inconsistent and around .500, and that Danks is starting to press a little bit because of the lack of offensive support.

 

It will be VERY interesting to see how this team responds psychologically to the challenge of facing Greinke and Davies (Sox killer since 08) on the road. KC's back in first place by 1/2 game, along with the Tigers. Will we get any clutch hits or continue to struggle?

 

The offense should get better. Getz should calm the leadoff discussion. Anorexei should start hitting. Thome will do better. They won't be the 1927 Yankees, but should be good enough. Its all going to come down to pitching. I hope Linebrink and Dotel can hold up all season, because the reinforcements don't appear too promising at least to help this year.

[StrangeSox]

Who was arguing on the broadcast last night that position players (Josh Hamilton) are more valuable than front-of-the-rotation starters (Volquez)?

[Kyyle23]

Who was arguing on the broadcast last night that position players (Josh Hamilton) are more valuable than front-of-the-rotation starters (Volquez)?

 

Phillips and Morgan. Morgan is a complete idiot

[fathom]

The offense should get better. Getz should calm the leadoff discussion. Anorexei should start hitting. Thome will do better. They won't be the 1927 Yankees, but should be good enough. Its all going to come down to pitching. I hope Linebrink and Dotel can hold up all season, because the reinforcements don't appear too promising at least to help this year.

 

Alexei's actually hitting the ball with a lot more authority than he was the first few weeks. He just has to stop trying to pull every freaking pitch.

[StrangeSox]

Phillips and Morgan. Morgan is a complete idiot

 

I thought it was him. The man is baseball-retarded.

[ThunderBolt]

Almost a White Sox Pitcher Alert.

Homer Bailey: Threw a complete game, shutout in his last start.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/st...&pid=456701

I don’t think anyone of us can argue about how valuable Dye has been too this team this year. It still interests me that in a perfect economic world this deal was pretty much as good as done

 

[RME JICO]

Almost a White Sox Pitcher Alert.

Homer Bailey: Threw a complete game, shutout in his last start.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/st...&pid=456701

I don't think anyone of us can argue about how valuable Dye has been too this team this year. It still interests me that in a perfect economic world this deal was pretty much as good as done

He has a 4.61 ERA in AAA. Doesn't look too promising.

[Dick Allen]

He has a 4.61 ERA in AAA. Doesn't look too promising.

 

Obviously, if he couldn't make the Reds, chances are he wouldn't have made the White Sox. The big change is that Abreu would most likely be in RF. He had been having a decent year offensively last time I check, stealing a lot of bases.

[scenario]

I agree that pitching is very important. A quick scan of team stats shows that there is a fairly close correlation between team ERAs and where they are in the standings.

 

But.....

 

Do you realize that we are currently 2nd from LAST in the AL in runs scored this year?

 

I knew we were struggling offensively but I wasn't paying close enough attention to realize where we stand versus other teams in the league. Only Oakland has scored fewer runs.

 

 

Given that, I'm not feeling too bad about being .500 right now.

Edited May 4, 2009 by scenario

[whitesoxfan101]

I think our pitching is actually going to be ok in the long run. It's true that you need good pitching to make the playoffs, let alone make a deep run, but I think our pitching will be ok outside of Contreras, who seems to just be gone. I'm much, much more worried about our offense. You need to score runs to be playing in October too, and our offense has major issues. The injuries haven't helped, but even healthy, our lineup has some major issues.

[Harry Chappas]

Obviously, if he couldn't make the Reds, chances are he wouldn't have made the White Sox. The big change is that Abreu would most likely be in RF. He had been having a decent year offensively last time I check, stealing a lot of bases.

 

The Reds rotation is deeper than the White Sox.

[ThunderBolt]

He has a 4.61 ERA in AAA. Doesn't look too promising.

Since reverting to his old delivery, Bailey has gone 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA, and struck out 18 in his second to last game. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. Still a Dye guy.

[Dick Allen]

The Reds rotation is deeper than the White Sox.

He couldn't beat out Micah Owings. If he were a White Sox, people would be calling for him to pull a Rick Ankiel at this stage.

[Dick Allen]

Since reverting to his old delivery, Bailey has gone 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA, and struck out 18 in his second to last game. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. Still a Dye guy.

One of the big knocks on Bailey is that he isn't very coachable. He's a talent, that's for sure.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

The Sox have 3 starters, and a good bullpen. I think we all believe we are going to lose when Bartolo and Jose start.

 

 

[elrockinMT]

Who was arguing on the broadcast last night that position players (Josh Hamilton) are more valuable than front-of-the-rotation starters (Volquez)?

 

Joe Morgan

[elrockinMT]

Phillips and Morgan. Morgan is a complete idiot

 

 

Disagree. Morgan is a very knowledgable baseball guy and just expressing his opinion

Edited May 4, 2009 by elrockinMT

[Balta1701]

One of the big knocks on Bailey is that he isn't very coachable. He's a talent, that's for sure.

Didn't they say the same thing about Gavin in Philly?

[Dick Allen]

Didn't they say the same thing about Gavin in Philly?

They were the opposite. Supposedly Gavin takes advice from everybody and his mind is filled with too many things. Bailey, if he gets knocked around just tries throwing harder.

[lostfan]

Disagree. Morgan is a very knowledgable baseball guy and just expressing his opinion

And he has some of the dumbest opinions I've ever heard - listen to him the next time he starts talking about stats, he makes zero sense. I lol'd last night when they showed the stats of all the guys who have batted leadoff, and Getz was well over .300 in the most games, but Morgan said he liked Wise because Wise brings "speed to the top of the lineup." Of course, Wise was batting .000 at the leadoff spot, but this was lost on Morgan.

[CanOfCorn]

Without lamps...there'd be no light.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, couldn't help it.