2009 MLB Pre-Draft Discussion

[Chisoxfn]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=809

 

Thats a good article talking a bit about the left handed pitching in this draft. My boy Brothers makes another apperance and a guy that BearSox likes Paxton makes an appearance as well.

 

Paxton has a big time arm, same with Brothers, but Brothers seems to have flipped a switch and is progressing towards big big things. Highly highly doubt he's there when the Sox pick but if he is, I drool at the idea of getting him into our rotation.

 

Also, here's a pretty cool quote (BA) that tells me the Sox are in a great spot having those extra picks, since this is a draft with lots of solid prospects but no great ones (therefor, its really great having a lot of picks in the early rounds since all of the guys grade out similarly). Lots of quality college depth in the draft as well.

 

In a draft noted more for depth than high-end quality (after that Strasburg guy), college pitching is one of the best sources of depth, and the Southeast makes a strong contribution.

[BearSox]

Would Donovan Tate still be around when the Sox pick? I think he would be a great pick in the supplemental round as there is a lot of risk involved with him not signing. He supposedly has five legitimate tools, but I dont know much about him other than he is a two sport athlete committed to UNC for baseball and football.

 

Nevermind, just read that he is a Boras client as well...

Odds are he'll be gone in the top 5-10.

[BearSox]

I think you'll see us take a lot of pitching and OF's early on in the draft (and by early, I mean the first 15-20 rounds). You could throw in a catcher here or there as well as maybe corner infielders.

[harfman77]

Odds are he'll be gone in the top 5-10.

 

Thanks, I wasnt sure how much his football commitment would be a deterrent.

[BearSox]

With today being my last day of High School, I plan on doing a lot of reports in the upcoming weekend. I think I'll focus on some of the prep catchers, corner infielders, and pitchers.

[dasox24]

With today being my last day of High School, I plan on doing a lot of reports in the upcoming weekend. I think I'll focus on some of the prep catchers, corner infielders, and pitchers.

Sounds good. Looking forward to those... And congrats on being done with HS! What are your plans for next year?

[BearSox]

Sounds good. Looking forward to those... And congrats on being done with HS! What are your plans for next year?

Not to hijack the thread, but...

 

I will be attending Harper Junior College (Paletine) and playing football there, hoping to earn a D-I scholarship.

[Chisoxfn]

Would Donovan Tate still be around when the Sox pick? I think he would be a great pick in the supplemental round as there is a lot of risk involved with him not signing. He supposedly has five legitimate tools, but I dont know much about him other than he is a two sport athlete committed to UNC for baseball and football.

 

Nevermind, just read that he is a Boras client as well...

Per Baseball America

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Current probability Tate will sign if picked in the Top 5? Top 10? Below?

 

Jim Callis: I don't think where he gets picked matters. It's what he gets offered, and we're hearing rumors that he wants $6 million. My gut feeling is he signs, but he has made noise about wanting to attend UNC. Who knows how sincere that is?

[BearSox]

Yeah, I suppose where he will get drafted is all based on what he tells MLB scouts about what his future plans are. If he comes out seemingly pretty committed to going to UNC, he'll probably not get drafted until later on past the 1st to a team picking him for the hell of it in hopes he'll change his mind. He'll cost a pretty penny either way.

[Chisoxfn]

Sam Dyson (RHP, UNC) and Joe Kelly (UCR - Closer) are two other guys to look at. I'll write something up on both of them in the next day or two. Both have big time arms, with Kelly projecting as a closer whose currently has serious command issues (but upper 90's heat and a good-to-plus slider).

[Chisoxfn]

Below is an article from Merkin regarding the Sox draft:

White Sox can make impact in Draft

South Siders will have five picks in top 102 this year

By Scott Merkin / MLB.com

05/14/09 5:35 PM ET

 

CLEVELAND -- Building Major League Baseball's ideal First-Year Player Draft pick most certainly would require different specifications depending on the various teams asked.

 

Does said team need frontline power pitchers? How about speed or maybe a corner outfielder? All of those intangibles factor into the process, eventual picks which are researched and scouted for months.

 

When this particular question was posed to Ozzie Guillen while his team was in Cleveland this week, the White Sox manager took about 10 seconds to come up with his Draft prototype.

 

"I need a baseball player," said Guillen without hesitation. "You hear this stuff about, 'Oh, he's a good athlete.' That doesn't mean anything. I think baseball needs players.

 

"Can they play the game and do they have baseball instincts? Can they pitch? There are so many things. There's stuff about, 'This guy played football and is going to be a first-round pick from Notre Dame.' I don't care about that."

 

Guillen's organization will have a chance to make quite an impact for the future through the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, to be broadcast in prime time for the the first time June 9. The White Sox have five picks in the first 102, due to Type-A free agent Orlando Cabrera being offered arbitration by the team and then signing with Oakland.

 

Those picks will come at No. 23 in the first round, No. 38 in Compensation Round A for Cabrera, No. 61 of the second round -- once again as compensation for Cabrera, No. 71 in the second round and No. 102 in Round No. 3.

 

No player picked at this relatively inexperienced level of competition is a guarantee for Major League success, aside from potential superstar hurler Steven Strasburg. But the White Sox are hoping their early 2009 selections display more of the upside shown by last year's class, as opposed to high selections from years past.

 

Names such as Jason Stumm, Matt Ginter (both first-round picks, 1999), Joe Borchard (first round, '00), Kris Honel (first round, '01), and Royce Ring (first round, '02) are gone from the White Sox. Meanwhile, Gordon Beckham, taken with the eighth pick overall in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, third-round pick Brent Morel, fifth-round pick Dan Hudson and outfielder Jordan Danks, chosen in the seventh round and the brother of pitcher John Danks, already have shown great promise.

 

"Higher picks are the ones you are most worried about," said White Sox director of amateur scouting Doug Laumann. "But I don't view it as pressure as much as a great opportunity, especially in this year's Draft.

 

"You have Strasburg at the top, and after that, it's a really, really level playing field. Having that many picks -- five picks in the first 102 -- it bodes well for a lot of depth, but [there's] no real talent that has emerged at the top of the list."

 

Laumann explained how the White Sox, with the eighth pick overall in 2008, had their targets honed in on either Beckham, Yonder Alonso or Justin Smoak. That talent pool looks much broader in 2009, based partially on the White Sox success as a team in 2008 and the amateur depth spoken by Laumann.

 

"At [No. 23 in the first round], where we are drafting, I could probably give you 20 names," Laumann said. "But at eight this year, I still probably would give you 20 names.

 

"[White Sox general manager] Kenny [Williams] has a desire, we all have a desire, to find an impact type of player. We would like to get some speed. We are still looking for athletes, guys who can run.

 

"I'm comfortable saying we are looking for skilled athletic guys and pitching," Laumann said. "But if there's that one bat in the middle of the lineup, a special bat, we might go that way. We'll leave our options open."

 

When Laumann spoke to MLB.com earlier this week, he had just returned home on a red-eye flight and was driving to Indianapolis to watch a pitcher from Eastern Illinois who was pitching in the middle of the week due to a recent weekend rainout. With the Draft just over three weeks away, it's a typical frenetic schedule for Laumann and his scouts, not to mention Williams, who has become more involved with this process over the past few years.

 

High praise came from Guillen in regard to the job being done by Laumann, and the White Sox manager added that he didn't really add direct input as to the style of his preferred player. Guillen's quotes, though, make it pretty clear what he wants on the White Sox.

 

"There's no question Kenny knows what we need and want, so it's up to them," Guillen said. "My job is to manage the big league club and let them do their job.

 

"But a lot of people in baseball try to get impact players in the Draft as these super athletes. In baseball, you don't need super athletes. You need guys who can play the game."

[Chisoxfn]

This is a pretty good draft to have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds as most experts would tell you that outside of a few guys, there are a whole hell of a lot of players who bundled together and grade out similarly. These are guys that all would be considered fringe 1st to 2nd round picks, but with some uspide and this bodes particularly well when you have a ton of picks in a range where similar players will be available because it will allow the Sox to really build up a lot of depth and talent in the minors.

 

If they do things right and don't go on the cheap, they could easily be on there way to having a farm system much like the Red Sox and in this economy that is a big big thing.

[BearSox]

Right now, I'd love for our first three picks to be:

 

1 (23) - Mike Leake, SP Arizona St.

1b (38) - A.J. Pollack, OF Notre Dame (could also potentially play either 2B or 3B as well)

2 (610 - Aaron Miller, OF Baylor

 

Mike Leake is someone who can progress quickly and be a real solid no. 3 (if not better) for a long time. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but he has good stuff and knows how to pitch. Great poise, great command and is a true baseball player.

 

Pollack is a great baseball player and can play all 3 OF spots, and could potentially move back to 2B or 3B. He has good speed, and can hit. Very solid player and another true baseball player.

 

Miller is a bit raw, but also another very solid baseball player. Get him to focus on just his offensive game, and he can be the next Andre Ethier. Got a sweet swing, and again, a true baseball player.

 

I guess you see the theme with my draft, and it goes right with what Ozzie said, good, true baseball players. 3 guys who could progress through the system rather quickly and become solid players for us.

[Chisoxfn]

Right now, I'd love for our first three picks to be:

 

1 (23) - Mike Leake, SP Arizona St.

1b (38) - A.J. Pollack, OF Notre Dame (could also potentially play either 2B or 3B as well)

2 (610 - Aaron Miller, OF Baylor

 

Mike Leake is someone who can progress quickly and be a real solid no. 3 (if not better) for a long time. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but he has good stuff and knows how to pitch. Great poise, great command and is a true baseball player.

 

Pollack is a great baseball player and can play all 3 OF spots, and could potentially move back to 2B or 3B. He has good speed, and can hit. Very solid player and another true baseball player.

 

Miller is a bit raw, but also another very solid baseball player. Get him to focus on just his offensive game, and he can be the next Andre Ethier. Got a sweet swing, and again, a true baseball player.

 

I guess you see the theme with my draft, and it goes right with what Ozzie said, good, true baseball players. 3 guys who could progress through the system rather quickly and become solid players for us.

I like Leake, but I think he's a bit of a reach with the 23rd pick. I'd like to see the Sox take someone with more upside, but Leake is a guy that has done nothing but excel in his collegiate career. That said, I just don't buy him having the stuff to be an impact pitcher and I think he falls in a similar mold as a Lance Broadway/Kyle McCulloch. I'd put him more in the Broadway range since Broadway was pretty damn good in college and had a plus spike curve coming out of college, but at the same time Leake's a bit "meh" to me. If you got him with the supplemental pick, I'd be excited and I honestly would love that draft as you'd be getting two outfielders with baseball ability and solid tools all across the board. I absolutely love Pollack and while he might be a bit of a reach at 23, would have no problem if we grabbed him. Miller is a pretty toolsy guy with a very strong arm. I still like Trout a whole heck of a lot and I've heard a lot of noise about him being a pretty strong bet to go somewhere in the 20's.

 

Basically put, love the selections, but I'd much rather go with the best collegiate pitcher still on the board cause I really think you'll find a power arm there at 23. It probably wont' be Brothers but a guy like Paxton would look damn good too. Not near as close to the sure thing Leake is, but he possesses the ability to eventually turn into a top 10-20 prospect in all of baseball and when you have 5 picks this early, you should take some chances.

 

[chunk23]

BA Mock Draft

 

1. Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)

2. Dustin Ackley (Mariners)

3. Grant Green (Padres)

4. Kyle Gibson (Pirates)

5. Alex White (Orioles)

6. Donovan Tate (Giants)

7. Zack Wheeler (Braves)

8. Aaron Crow (Reds)

9. Jacob Turner (Tigers)

10. Chad Jenkins (Nationals)

11. Mike Leake (Rockies)

12. Tanner Scheppers (Royals)

14. Shelby Miller (Rangers)

15. Tim Wheeler (Indians)

16. Matt Purke (Diamondbacks)

17. Bobby Borchering (Diamondbacks)

18. Chad James (Marlins)

19. Rex Brothers (Cardinals)

20. James Paxon (Blue Jays)

21. Everett Williams (Astros)

22. Andy Oliver (Twins)

23. Eric Arnett (White Sox)

24. Mike Trout (Angels)

25. Tyler Skaggs (Angels)

26. Kyle Heckathorn (Brewers)

27. Jared Mitchell (Mariners)

28. Max Stassi (Red Sox)

29. Brett Jackson (Yankees)

30. Tony Sanchez (Rays)

31. AJ Pollock (Cubs)

32. Garrett Gould (Rockies)

 

 

Here's BA on our projected pick http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=1026

[Chisoxfn]

Here's a really interesting article with a guy that takes a statistical approach based upon the college players past history. AJ Pollack, one of my favorites, looks really good based upon this guys analysis.

 

http://projectprospect.com/article/2008/12...-quantitatively

 

Another guy I like ranks fairly high on the list as well, Josh Fellhauer from Fullerton, although I wouldn't take him in the first couple ruonds of the draft.

 

Another interesting part of the article is where he talks about how he expected Josh Fields to not live up to expectations based upon his collegiate statistics.

[Chisoxfn]

Heres a pretty informative list on some of the top high school prospects and where they are going to college. Might give you an idea why a particular guy slides, plus gives a little brief scouting report on each of the players.

 

In the final installment of our 2009 College Preview we take a look into a future as we provide the top 30 recruits for 2010. Of course, many of these players will sign pro contracts after being drafted in June and will never step foot on a college campus.

 

1) Tyler Matzek, LHP; Oregon – This projectable lefty boasts a polished four-pitch repertoire, including a 93-94 mph fastball.

 

2) Shelby Miller, RHP; Texas A&M – Rapidly rising up draft boards due to easy mid 90's velocity and much improved offspeed stuff.

 

3) Matt Purke, LHP; Texas Christian – Eerily similar to Matzek, however he's not as developed physically and his motion is more three-quarters.

 

4) Austin Maddox, C; Florida – Simply put, a beast. An intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it.

 

5) Jacob Turner, RHP; North Carolina – Well-proportioned power pitcher with two plus pitches and the command of a college upperclassman.

 

6) Donavan Tate, OF; North Carolina – The best athlete in the entire draft. Lethal bat, laser arm and blazing speed. Also a prized football recruit.

 

7) Zach Wheeler, RHP; Kennesaw State – His commitment to a third-tier program all but ensures that he'll head straight to the pro ranks.

 

8) Matt Davidson, 3B; USC – Coming off a down junior season, he torched showcase pitching all summer.

 

9) Luke Bailey, C; Auburn – The best all-around catcher in a loaded high school crop. Could easily start right now for most Division I programs.

 

10) Tyler Skaggs, LHP; Cal State Fullerton – Not as mechanically-sound as Matzek and Purke, but has just as much velocity with more room for projection.

 

11) Bobby Borchering, 3B; Florida – Displays startling power from both sides of the plate. An adequate fielder who should be able to stick at the hot corner.

 

12) Jonathan Walsh, C; Texas – Very athletic for a catcher. Smacks the ball from both sides of the plate and has exceptional mobility and a nice arm behind it.

 

13) Madison Younginer, RHP; Clemson – Superb mechanics and a picture perfect pitcher's build. Mixes a 90-93 mph fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.

 

14) Jeff Malm, 1B; USC – His smooth swing and slick fielding conjure up memories of a Casey Kotchman circa 2001.

 

15) Brian Goodwin, OF; North Carolina – His pure hitting/speed package elicit Curtis Granderson comparisons. A true center fielder.

 

16) Jiovanni Mier, SS; USC – Acrobatic fielder whose offense has started to catch up to the rest of his game. Enjoyed an excellent showcase season.

 

17) Mychal Givens, P/SS; Oklahoma State – Despite highlight reel ability at shortstop, his future's on the mound. Throws 95 mph easy with a good curveball.

 

18) Max Stassi, C; UCLA – Fantastic catch-and-throw skills, including a gun for an arm. Also displays surprising pop given his smallish stature.

 

19) Ian Krol, LHP; Arizona – A "finesse" lefty who has three plus pitches including a 90+ mph fastball.

 

20) Matt Hobgood, RHP; Cal State Fullerton – Already enormous and hasn't stopped growing. Rough mechanics could land him in the pen full-time.

 

21) Deven Marrero, SS; Arizona State – Silky-smooth fielder with an ideal shortstop's build. His bat lags behind his glove but is rapidly improving.

 

22) Jacob Marisnick, OF; Oregon – Projection oozes from his lithe, yet muscular, frame. A five-tool athlete who resembles Dale Murphy on the diamond.

 

23) Richie Shaffer, 3B; Clemson – A prototypical third baseman with a howitzer for an arm and immense power potential. Would likely start as a freshman.

 

24) LeVon Washington, 2B; Florida – The fastest player on this list who can play anywhere in the middle of the diamond. Potent bat with plenty of gap power.

 

25) Keyvius Sampson, RHP; Florida State – Live body and live arm. Already throws 92-94 mph and projects to throw harder once he matures.

 

26) Patrick Schuster, LHP; Florida – Has very similar mechanics to Purke, though his stuff isn't as crisp.

 

27) Chad James, LHP; Oklahoma State – Yet another lanky lefty whose three-pitch mix includes low 90's heat.

 

28) Slade Heathcott, OF; LSU – Can hit 94 mph from the mound, but his future lies elsewhere. Lightning quick bat and a strong, accurate arm from the outfield.

 

29) Will Myers, 3B; South Carolina – Accomplished athlete who has both caught and pitched in high school. Has undeniable power potential.

 

30) Danny Aldrich, OF; Wake Forest – A picture-perfect left-handed stroke. MVP of the '08 Summer World Wood Bat Tournament

[flavum]

I don't know who any of these players are except Strasburg, but I'm glad the Sox had the 8th pick in the draft last year, and not this year.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't know who any of these players are except Strasburg, but I'm glad the Sox had the 8th pick in the draft last year, and not this year.

I was reading somewhere that the Sox have talked and the guys they were looking at were Beckham, Alonso, and Smoak. All of which would have been tremendous picks. And your right, the 8th pick this year would be the equivalent of something like the 20th pick in last years draft in terms of talent. That said, this is a very deep draft, its just there aren't a lot of sure things, particularly because this draft doesn't have near the top end collegiate talent.

 

Hence why guys like Crow/Scheppers might go higher than they did last year and that usually doesn't happen. In Scheppers case, sure, because he fell due to an injury, but all things said, you wouldn't expect a guy like Crow to move up after sitting out a season.

[Chisoxfn]

With 5 picks in the top 102, Volz (see description below) is the type of guy I would like to see the Sox take a chance on if he slides in the draft. Dynamite arm, just hasn't put it all together yet. In fact, I could compare him a bit to a guy like Luke Hudson or Dexter Carter that had good stuff, but didn't click until they moved to the professional ranks. Now I'm not saying Volz figures it out, but he's the type of guy I'd love to have in the system. I'll write a more detailed write-up later on this week or early next week.

 

From MLB.com

Lead balloon update

 

This term hasn't really caught on in scouting circles, but it's meant to be the anti-helium. There are always players who are considered to be elite talents, first-round potentials at the start of the spring who just don't pan out.

 

Baylor's Kendal Volz has always been an intriguing arm. He served as Team USA's closer over the summer and was lights out, making some believe he'd be a reliever long-term, especially since he hadn't been able to show consistency as a starter. He seemed to answer those questions at the start of this year, going at least six innings through his first four starts and posting a 2.73 ERA while sliding into the Friday night starter role.

 

It's not that Volz has been awful overall, with the exception of a bad start at Kansas in early April. But he hasn't been providing the dominant performances he had early in the spring and he hasn't been getting the first-round buzz you heard during that stretch. In his last start, at Texas, he gave up six earned runs (nine total) on 11 hits and four walks over 6 1/3 innings and his ERA is now at a pedestrian 4.00. He'll pitch at Nebraska this weekend in the Big 12 Conference Tournament to try to move back in the right direction. Teams will remember when he was unhittable and throwing 97-98 mph over the summer and might be intrigued by the big arm. But he just hasn't shown that consistently this spring, leaving his stock a little up in the air.

[BearSox]

I loke Volz as a potential starter or short reliever.

 

Also, another guy I can't help but be intrigued by is Bobby Borchering. I can't help but find a switch hitting high school 3B with his power and hitting ability to be a very tempting pick.

[Chisoxfn]

Bochering reminds me a bit (just the idea) of a former Sox selection (whom they weren't able to sign out of high school), Wes Hodges. Hodges was a switch hitting 3rd baseman that ended up going to Georgia Tech and is now in AAA with the Tribe.

 

He hasn't put up dominant numbers, but he's been pretty good in his first two minor league seasons (07 and 08) and might get his shot with the Tribe this summer.

[Chisoxfn]

By the way, I just want to say...great job so far everyone. There is a ton of great draft stuff out there and we've been doing this for about a week. By the time the draft comes, I think any Soxtalk member that wants to will be able to have a damn good understanding of the draft without every having to leave Soxtalk (and without spending a dime).

[Chisoxfn]

Also, just an FYI, if you want to see a comprehensive listing of the write-ups thus far, just look at the very 2nd post on this thread.

[Ozzie Ball]

Here's a really interesting article with a guy that takes a statistical approach based upon the college players past history. AJ Pollack, one of my favorites, looks really good based upon this guys analysis.

 

http://projectprospect.com/article/2008/12...-quantitatively

 

Another guy I like ranks fairly high on the list as well, Josh Fellhauer from Fullerton, although I wouldn't take him in the first couple ruonds of the draft.

 

Another interesting part of the article is where he talks about how he expected Josh Fields to not live up to expectations based upon his collegiate statistics.

Nice find, some very interesting stuff on there.