Matt Holliday...

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Why have all of a sudden opened up the off season thread? Odds are we are going to go cheap as always and not sign him.

[BearSox]

I don'tk now if Beckham will hit enough to stick at 3B, but he might. Still, his value is at his highest if he can stick in the middle infield. We just have to hope that his defense improves and he can turn into a Michael Young type defensive player at SS.

 

I realize that doesn't mean he's great, ie, in the upper echelon (despite Young's GG from last year) but it does mean he sucks up everything hit to him and I'd be content with that if he hits like he's projected to do.

I think best case scenario with Beckham offensively is a Michael Young type except with more pop, but maybe less pure hitting ability.

[Balta1701]

And that would be a big mistake, since the Sox only have one prospect in the minors that projects to play in the outfield, Jordan Danks. Shelby is another guy but you don't not sign someone because of John Shelby. Allen is a 1B/DH. Beckham is a middle infielder. Quentin is an outfielder, so bottom line the Sox will most likely need to add an outfielder if they want to compete.

 

If they don't, sure they can stick and hope every prospect pans out, but it wouldn't be the smart way to quickly rebuild.

I still have difficulty believing the Sox would do a full "The Kids can play" segment next year no matter how good the AA team currently is either. The Sox probably have need of 1 OF, but there's several ways to go about that. If you count the AA team, we're several people deep by the end of 2010 at every point other than the OF...it's also possible someone could be moved (Viciedo currently has 7 errors at 3b) or KW could pull off another of his surprise trades to fill that slot.

[SoxFan562004]

I still have difficulty believing the Sox would do a full "The Kids can play" segment next year no matter how good the AA team currently is either. The Sox probably have need of 1 OF, but there's several ways to go about that. If you count the AA team, we're several people deep by the end of 2010 at every point other than the OF...it's also possible someone could be moved (Viciedo currently has 7 errors at 3b) or KW could pull off another of his surprise trades to fill that slot.

I tend to agree with you and hope it's true. The Sox are a major market team and have had a top 10 payroll the last few years. They have money coming off the books and I hope, and expect, that the Sox have an ongoing evaluation of their club going on constantly and plan to evaluate their own farm system and then plug in quality veterans with some of the money. It's a waste of a resource as a big market club if you don't. It would be silly, and a slap in the face to the fans, to have a complete youth movement while you have payroll flexability.

 

Teams have done a great job, Red Sox for example, of mixing in a strong farm system with a high payroll. There's been two threads about specific players, Holliday and Bay, but the Sox should be in a position to be flexible this offseason and as a fan I fully expect them to look at every FA and any veteran who teams are shopping for a salary dump.

 

This will be a weird year, I just don't see anyone running away with this division, so the Sox probably won't dump at the deadline, but they do have 4 quality picks in the draft. So the Sox have an opportunity to have a strong minor league system to either trade players or groom for the majors with some payroll flexability. IMO, once this year is done, either in September or a dump, the Sox will be in a strong position and it's up to the org to take full advantage of it.

[santo=dorf]

Holliday has been awful this year. I was referring to the career numbers. Holliday also plays a good outfield and is in his prime. And you'd be talking about significant less money. Different skill-sets, so you aren't comparing apples to apples.

 

Plus nowhere did you see me saying the Sox should give Holliday 10+ million that they are giving Thome. Not at all. Thome isn't worth what he's getting now and I continue to say that I'd build my team in other ways but he's not horrible. He's certainly not an all star either though.

Jim Thome aging away is putting up better numbers this year than Holliday's career road numbers. Not sure how you missed that.

 

There's no point in discussing the Sox signing him for less than $10 million a year. It's completely pointless with Boras as his agent and the fact that he was demanding HUGE money from the Rockies for an extension before they traded him. I highly doubt Holliday will be playing good outfield at the end of his nex t contract as he'll be near Thome's current age.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

Jim Thome currently has .352 OBP and .477 SLG for a .830 OPS and you want him ran out of town. So how is it Holliday's lesser numbers aren't "bad." Ultra :rolly

Yes, you ignore a nice stat called batting average, where Holliday's road average is over 50points higher than Thome's. I don't give a f*** how you want to tell me statistically it doesn't matter, but when you hit .227 you are not valuable. End of story. Holliday got on base .05 points less and the OPS was higher for Thome but I'll take the higher average any day of the week.

[santo=dorf]

Adam Dunn = Not valuable.

 

Yep. I'm wasting my time here. The point is Holliday still makes outs at a greater rate and has less power ALL of his career, from start to his prime, in hitting in places not in Colorado than a 38 year old Jim Thome.

 

.270 single hitters aren't that valuable either. Just look at Neifi Perez, Alex Sanchez or Delmon Young.

[Chisoxfn]

Adam Dunn = Not valuable.

 

Yep. I'm wasting my time here. The point is Holliday still makes outs at a greater rate and has less power ALL of his career, from start to his prime, in hitting in places not in Colorado than a 38 year old Jim Thome.

 

.270 single hitters aren't that valuable either. Just look at Neifi Perez, Alex Sanchez or Delmon Young.

The OPS he was posting wasn't exactly empty. It was pretty close to an .800 OPS. Never did I utter he's a star or anything but I'd take that production from a solid defensive outfielder over the production Thome has given the SOX THIS YEAR. Would I take Hollidays production this year over Thomes, f*** no, but I would pick a s***load of other players over Jim Thome.

 

And yes, Adam Dunn isn't that productive. For the right price he can be solid, but if I'm building a ball club, he doesn't fit into my philosphy unless I'm in serious need of a power hitter. If I already have plenty of power hitters, I'll say thanks but no thanks. Stat people vastly underrate the importance of batting average.

[SoxFan562004]

Yes, you ignore a nice stat called batting average, where Holliday's road average is over 50points higher than Thome's. I don't give a f*** how you want to tell me statistically it doesn't matter, but when you hit .227 you are not valuable. End of story. Holliday got on base .05 points less and the OPS was higher for Thome but I'll take the higher average any day of the week.

I hate that there's no tone to writing, so I'm not trying to be a dick here, but why would you take a better BA over Thome's stats?

 

It's a weird mix of sample sizes, but hey, I'm making the argument I'll take the liberty... Last year overall Adam Dunn's BA was .236, nine points higher than Thome's now, but look at his stats and there's no way you wouldn't take Dunn's style of production over Holidays .240 this year. To me BA is an incomplete stat, not a bad one or a wrong one, just incomplete. I want to know when you come up did you make an out and if you didn't what did you do?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml

Edited May 15, 2009 by SoxFan562004

[Chisoxfn]

I hate that there's no tone to writing, so I'm not trying to be a dick here, but why would you take a better BA over Thome's stats?

 

It's a weird mix of sample sizes, but hey, I'm making the argument I'll take the liberty... Last year overall Adam Dunn's BA was .236, nine points higher than Thome's now, but look at his stats and there's no way you wouldn't take Dunn's production over Holidays .240 this year. To me BA is an incomplete stat, not a bad one or a wrong one, just incomplete. I want to know when you come up did you make an out and if you didn't what did you do?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml

I'm not comparing Dunn to this years Holliday, rather Dunn to Hollidays' career road OPS. If I'm comparing practically anyone to this years Holliday, I'm taking the other person and that includes players that I'm not particularly big fans of, ie current modern day Thome and Dunn (at the same time I wouldn't have had a problem if the Sox picked up Dunn for the right price this off-season and with the right offensive strategy in mind in Chicago).

 

Obviously I wouldn't take a guy with an empty .279 average over a guy who hit .240 with 40 HR's. I still wouldn't be happy with the guy who hit .240 and would probably try to find a more complete ball player (but I would admit he's a solid ball-player). For example, Jim Thome on his career, f***ing oustanding offensive player.

[SoxFan562004]

I'm not comparing Dunn to this years Holliday, rather Dunn to Hollidays' career road OPS. If I'm comparing practically anyone to this years Holliday, I'm taking the other person and that includes players that I'm not particularly big fans of, ie current modern day Thome and Dunn (at the same time I wouldn't have had a problem if the Sox picked up Dunn for the right price this off-season and with the right offensive strategy in mind in Chicago).

 

Obviously I wouldn't take a guy with an empty .279 average over a guy who hit .240 with 40 HR's. I still wouldn't be happy with the guy who hit .240 and would probably try to find a more complete ball player (but I would admit he's a solid ball-player). For example, Jim Thome on his career, f***ing oustanding offensive player.

OK, makes sense to me. I know you're not a huge fan, but I think after Thome goes, Dunn would be perfect for the Sox. Just drop him in at DH for the next 5 years and watch him put up consistent numbers.

 

The Sox will always have to deal with the ballpark they play 81 of their games in. It's a bandbox and IMO they need at least one guy who might lack in other areas, but is going to hit a TON of homers

Edited May 15, 2009 by SoxFan562004

[Chisoxfn]

OK, makes sense to me. I know you're not a huge fan, but I think after Thome goes, Dunn would be perfect for the Sox. Just drop him in at DH for the next 5 years and watch him put up consistent numbers.

Perfect under a few conditions. They get rid of other unproductive high strikeout batters. Ie, Josh Fields and Brett Lillibridge. I just don't believe a team can be that sucessful if it has a lineup that consistently strikes out because you will have trouble executing and getting big runs and ultimately winning close games. I'm certain you'll have plenty of blow-out wins if those high strikeout guys hit for power, but as a whole, I don't think its the right makeup to be a world series caliber team. Not certain if the stats back me up, but my personal belief is that.

 

Now if you have a couple very highly productive strikeout batters, you can get a way with it, but if those high strikeout guys are all low average players, than I think you run a risk of having a very one-dimensional inconsistent offense. Basically put, Dunn would fit in great, if the rest of the middle of the order was pretty productive. I tend to think a Bobby Abreu in his prime would be a better fit for the Sox than Dunn, but I don't know if thats a good comparison cause Abreu in his prime was pretty f***ing good.

 

I should also say that I'd probably prefer Jermaine Dye as a whole to Adam Dunn as I believe Dye is a far more complete offensive player. I also assume we are referring to both of these guys as DH's going forward since Dunn is actually worse defensively than Dye (and Dye is pretty awful out there given his lack of range).

[southsider2k5]

And that would be a big mistake, since the Sox only have one prospect in the minors that projects to play in the outfield, Jordan Danks. Shelby is another guy but you don't not sign someone because of John Shelby. Allen is a 1B/DH. Beckham is a middle infielder. Quentin is an outfielder, so bottom line the Sox will most likely need to add an outfielder if they want to compete.

 

If they don't, sure they can stick and hope every prospect pans out, but it wouldn't be the smart way to quickly rebuild.

 

Historically the Sox don't spend free agent money, especially when they believe they can fill positions internally for minimum wage. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of Getz, Beckham, Ramirez infield with the winner of Viciedo and Fields in left.

[SoxFan562004]

Historically the Sox don't spend free agent money, especially when they believe they can fill positions internally for minimum wage. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of Getz, Beckham, Ramirez infield with the winner of Viciedo and Fields in left.

They have added money through trades though, Freddy and reupped with him, Thome (I know Phills sent $$ but Sox still added payroll in that deal, they resigned PK for basically market value, Bartolo and made a run at him, they made a serious run at Torii Hunter and Fukudome.

 

You are right that they usually don't pursue people via FA, so adding on through trades might be something to keep an eye on. We'll see, it will be one of the most interesting off-seasons I can remember.

Edited May 15, 2009 by SoxFan562004

[ThunderBolt]

.697 OPS so far in Oakland, Boras client.

That's all i need to hear. Guy will probably be a Yankee by the deadline.

[Chisoxfn]

Historically the Sox don't spend free agent money, especially when they believe they can fill positions internally for minimum wage. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of Getz, Beckham, Ramirez infield with the winner of Viciedo and Fields in left.

And all I'm saying is that is a ballclub that will be pretty poor.

[Balta1701]

And all I'm saying is that is a ballclub that will be pretty poor.

In the rookie year for all those guys or after they've had some time to develop?

[Chisoxfn]

In the rookie year for all those guys or after they've had some time to develop?

In the rookie year. It would be freaking stupid to go with a ton of rookies if the team tanks this year because you'd be asking for attendance to plummet. I mean stupid. If the Sox suck, they'll need to trade there guys, give the kids a look, evaluate, and than utilize some of this kids, trade some of those kids for other assets (proven or unproven) and find a way to make a splash to attract fans and essentially show Sox fans that they plan on contending, therefor, ticket sales might be saved.

 

I'm not saying the Sox will do it, but it will be essential for them to do just that. And I personally think getting another outfielder isn't that bad of an idea since the Sox have zero in the words of upper echelon starting pitching prospects and might need to use some of those propsects to get us a top flight pitching prospect, especially since I'd much rather see the club spend decent money on a free agent bat or two than a free agent pitcher because spending money on bats is typically a far far better investment option.

[southsider2k5]

In the rookie year. It would be freaking stupid to go with a ton of rookies if the team tanks this year because you'd be asking for attendance to plummet. I mean stupid. If the Sox suck, they'll need to trade there guys, give the kids a look, evaluate, and than utilize some of this kids, trade some of those kids for other assets (proven or unproven) and find a way to make a splash to attract fans and essentially show Sox fans that they plan on contending, therefor, ticket sales might be saved.

 

I'm not saying the Sox will do it, but it will be essential for them to do just that. And I personally think getting another outfielder isn't that bad of an idea since the Sox have zero in the words of upper echelon starting pitching prospects and might need to use some of those propsects to get us a top flight pitching prospect, especially since I'd much rather see the club spend decent money on a free agent bat or two than a free agent pitcher because spending money on bats is typically a far far better investment option.

 

We haven't done a ton of rookies in what, 10-15 years? The Sox are always plugging a new cheap guy into the line up to try to save some payroll. With the hype surrounding this minor league system right now, do you really think Kenny Williams is going to go out and spend money on anything but pitching? I just can't see it.

 

[fathom]

We haven't done a ton of rookies in what, 10-15 years? The Sox are always plugging a new cheap guy into the line up to try to save some payroll. With the hype surrounding this minor league system right now, do you really think Kenny Williams is going to go out and spend money on anything but pitching? I just can't see it.

 

I'd be surprised if KW didn't go out and spend money on a leadoff hitter this offseason.

[southsider2k5]

I'd be surprised if KW didn't go out and spend money on a leadoff hitter this offseason.

 

Who would he block and who is out there?

[Chisoxfn]

We haven't done a ton of rookies in what, 10-15 years? The Sox are always plugging a new cheap guy into the line up to try to save some payroll. With the hype surrounding this minor league system right now, do you really think Kenny Williams is going to go out and spend money on anything but pitching? I just can't see it.

The Sox aren't going to go out and spend big money on pitching, thats a certainty.

[Balta1701]

Who would he block and who is out there?

Orlando Hudson is on a 1 year deal.

 

Chone Figgins will be out there, Johnny Damon also. Coco Crisp has an $8 million option, Freddy Sanchez has an $8 million option. Polonco will be out there, then you get down to the Xavier Nady level and you're really stretching. Probably someone out there I missed, here's a version of the list from a few months ago.

[BearSox]

Hudson will likely cash in and we don't need a 2B, Damon will likely also cash in again and he's a Boras client.

 

Figgins makes the most sense. He's someone who's been on KW's radar for a while now and likely would not be too expensive to sign. He could play either 3B, LF, or CF for us.

[southsider2k5]

Orlando Hudson is on a 1 year deal.

 

Chone Figgins will be out there, Johnny Damon also. Coco Crisp has an $8 million option, Freddy Sanchez has an $8 million option. Polonco will be out there, then you get down to the Xavier Nady level and you're really stretching. Probably someone out there I missed, here's a version of the list from a few months ago.

 

Hmm, a few guys that Kenny has chased before and Sox killers. That could be interesting depending on what the team finances look like after this season.