Draft Profile: Eric Arnett - RHP - Indiana

[Chisoxfn]

Baseball America released its first mock draft on 5/14/09 and had the Sox selecting a college righty out of Indiana, Eric Arnett. Some of the power lefties that myself and BearSox have talked about (Brothers/Paxton) were off the board while three outfielders (two college and one prep) we've touted were on the board (Stout - HS, Pollack, Aaron Miller). Pollack went to the Cubs with Stout going to the Angels at pick #24 (right after the Sox pick) with Miller sliding out of the 1st round.

 

Prior to this selection, I can't say I was overly familiar with Arnett, however, he's one of two Hoosiers thats projected to go early in the draft (IU's catcher being the other, who statistically looks like a pretty nice pick for a back-stop). As of May 2nd, he was 9-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 10 games, giving up 58 hits in 76 innings of work. He's widely regarded as the top pitcher in the big ten this year but wasn't on most scouts radars (at least not as a top 5 round selection) prior to the season. In fact, he wasn't even on the radards of college coaches as he was a walk-on at Indiana. However, this year he added velocity to his fastball and improved his command. His fastball sits in the 93-96MPH range, but most reports I've read indicate that the fastball has little life. He mixes that fastball with a developing slider, which at times has looked promising but again is currently a work in progress.

 

If I were to grade him, I think your talking about a guy with a good frame, whose put 3MPH onto his fastball this year and could potentially add additional velocity (6-5, 225) with a developing slider (a year ago, he has no other pitch). Bottom line, this guy could go anywhere from the back of the first round to the third round and any team that grabs him has to hope he has a lot more development left in him. He does sound to have a relatively similar scouting report of former #1 Aaron Poreda, although Poreda had a bit more juice to his fastball and a bit more developed off-speed pitch (albeit not a whole lot more developed).

 

I reiterate that whoever takes him hopes he can really develop some additional pitchers, otherwise the only possibility of him making an impact will be out of the pen. And personally speaking, I hope the Sox stay away from him, at least in the first round. In fact, of all the names I've heard or seen, Arnett is the one that scares me the most.

 

Below is a link to a video of Arnett

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgivHkTgXj4

[Chisoxfn]

From MLB.com

Entering the Draft season, most assumed that Hoosier lefty Matt Bashore would be the first Indiana arm to go off the board. It looks like that early assertion will be incorrect, as right-hander Eric Arnett has passed him by. Some of that has been because Bashore has been inconsistent, but most of it is because Arnett has had a breakthrough junior season.

 

A swingman as a sophomore with mixed results, he's now Indiana's ace with an 11-1 record and 2.78 ERA in 12 starts. The one concern is how much he's worked -- he's thrown six complete games, including his last two starts during which he threw a combined 266 pitches (he also threw 131 three starts ago), so there might be a little buyer beware. But he's a big, strong workhorse who has now pitched his way into first-round consideration. He'll make his last regular-season start against Michigan State this weekend.

 

[BearSox]

I agree with ya. I wouldn't want this with either of our top 3 pick. 71 or later would be fine by me, but I see too much risk with this guy.

[Chisoxfn]

I agree with ya. I wouldn't want this with either of our top 3 pick. 71 or later would be fine by me, but I see too much risk with this guy.

I hate the idea of taking a guy in the first round who doesn't have any sort of secondary pitch and has only flashed a bare minimal potential of a second pitch. It would be one thing if he's shown a plus secondary pitch from time to time cause than you can at least hope you can coach and develop it into benig a consistent pitch but this guy just scares me.

 

Very projectable, but again, your talking about a college age kid, not a high schooler, so will he really add any more velocity? Hell, I'd remotely understand it if he was a lefty, just because its rare to have a power lefty (albeit there are a few real good looking ones in this years draft), but a righty.

[Ozzie Ball]

PG has a slightly different take on his secondary stuff:

 

Arnett’s fastball has improved from 92 to 96 and he’s held his velocity deep into games. His slider has also become a dominant second pitch.

[Chisoxfn]

PG has a slightly different take on his secondary stuff:

Whose PG? I can't say I've seen him pitch, but I'm hoping to catch some footage of his start tonight against Ohio State. If he in fact had a plus slider, I'd say he'd be a lot more interesting, but I read a ton of reports indicating that there is a lot more juice than truth to Arnett (and when I say that I mean there is a lot of hype and that really his stuff isn't as good as advertised at least in terms of what publications are saying).

 

Again, this is based on zero first hand experience when it comes to him, but I read a lot of places indicating that he had a pretty non-existent secondary pitch, although it had improved this year.

[Ozzie Ball]

Whose PG? I can't say I've seen him pitch, but I'm hoping to catch some footage of his start tonight against Ohio State. If he in fact had a plus slider, I'd say he'd be a lot more interesting, but I read a ton of reports indicating that there is a lot more juice than truth to Arnett (and when I say that I mean there is a lot of hype and that really his stuff isn't as good as advertised at least in terms of what publications are saying).

 

Again, this is based on zero first hand experience when it comes to him, but I read a lot of places indicating that he had a pretty non-existent secondary pitch, although it had improved this year.

Perfect Game, or PGCrosschecker technically in this case, here's the link to the quote I posted

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/Articles/Dis...spx?article=824

[Chisoxfn]

Ah yes, I'm familiar with Perfect Game. Just not the acronym, haha. Alan Simpson is good but I've always thought he tended to over-exaggerate and a guy hitting 96 once on the gun tended to mean he sits at 96. And a guy throwing one really good slider, means he now has a plus slider.

 

Just my two cents, but again all of this is based purely on what I read. In the case of Arnett there wasn't a ton out there but I did see a ton of first hand reports from this season and it sounded like the 2nd and 3rd time through the order teams would start to hit him a bit (still not a lot, given his very good overall numbers) and that it was because he really just had a fastball most of the time and it wasn't one with a lot of life (which means he really does need a pretty darn good secondary pitch as well as good command).

[Chisoxfn]

On a sidenote, good find on that link Ozzie. Lots of good tidbits in there.

[iamshack]

This guy just seems like another "safe" arm that we have been taking for the past several years. The strategy has done absolutely nothing for us, at least in terms of first round talent, with the exception being that Poreda might end up at least having a sustainable MLB career.

 

I'd like to see us take a guy with a bit more risk/reward, such as a high school arm, or even better, just another position prospect. It's become obvious that this offense will continue to need to be overhauled, even with all the talent down in Birmingham, for the next several years.

[Chisoxfn]

This guy just seems like another "safe" arm that we have been taking for the past several years. The strategy has done absolutely nothing for us, at least in terms of first round talent, with the exception being that Poreda might end up at least having a sustainable MLB career.

 

I'd like to see us take a guy with a bit more risk/reward, such as a high school arm, or even better, just another position prospect. It's become obvious that this offense will continue to need to be overhauled, even with all the talent down in Birmingham, for the next several years.

This couldn't possibly be considered a safe arm. A safe arm is Mike Leake, not Arnett. A safe arm is a guy with good control, a mixture of solid picthes, and a 87-90MPH fastball. Arnett is abig bodies, hard throwing kid thats raw. Nothing safe about this pick.

[Chisoxfn]

His slider is definately better than I thought it was. I'd have a bit less problems if the Sox took this guy. I was able to see some video clips and he looked a bit more impressive. Especially when I heard some of the things the college analysts were talking about him. I don't love the guy with our pick, but I hate it a bit less, cause he does have upside.

 

HE's a 2 pitch pitcher (FB/Slider) and his slider is a good pitch (went from average to good and it's flashed signs of being plus). Ocassionally throws a splitter but its completely raw and per his college coaches they have not worked with him on any other pitch, which to me means the potential is there for him to learn more.

 

His velocity has also increased every season at IU and his last couple starts he's been hitting 94 deep into the games, which is a very good sign.

[danman31]

Arnett is on Big Ten Network in the Big Ten Tourney against Purdue. His fastball is sitting mid 90s. I wasn't paying much attention and missed the first few innings, but a mid 90s fastball will catch your attention. He threw a pretty sick 66 MPH curve to K a batter last inning. Gun could have missed it, but that's a HUGE velocity difference from his fastball.

[Chisoxfn]

Arnett is on Big Ten Network in the Big Ten Tourney against Purdue. His fastball is sitting mid 90s. I wasn't paying much attention and missed the first few innings, but a mid 90s fastball will catch your attention. He threw a pretty sick 66 MPH curve to K a batter last inning. Gun could have missed it, but that's a HUGE velocity difference from his fastball.

The curve is a very raw pitch of his. I got the game recording right now, but he might very well be the guy the Sox take. He's starting to grow on me a lot, especially since he tends to hold his velocity deep into games as of late.

[danman31]

The curve is a very raw pitch of his. I got the game recording right now, but he might very well be the guy the Sox take. He's starting to grow on me a lot, especially since he tends to hold his velocity deep into games as of late.

Yeah it goes without saying that you don't see college pitchers throwing mid 90s consistently with another above average pitch. I scoffed at the idea of an Indiana pitcher being a 1st rounder, but so far it seems legit.

[Chisoxfn]

So are our teams going to find a way to meet up again this year?

[danman31]

So are our teams going to find a way to meet up again this year?

Possible, but I don't think Mizzou will get shipped out west. Seems like enough teams closer to them will be hosting (a possible Big Ten host, Arkansas, TCU, LSU, Rice, Ole Miss). If Mizzou gets shipped out west with what should be a pretty good reputation and a probable 2 seed, I'll be upset. 16 teams have made the tourney the last 6 years, Mizzou is one of them, and a few more will drop off that list once it becomes the last 7 years. It would be frustrating to not be given any respect from the committee.

[Chisoxfn]

Possible, but I don't think Mizzou will get shipped out west. Seems like enough teams closer to them will be hosting (a possible Big Ten host, Arkansas, TCU, LSU, Rice, Ole Miss). If Mizzou gets shipped out west with what should be a pretty good reputation and a probable 2 seed, I'll be upset. 16 teams have made the tourney the last 6 years, Mizzou is one of them, and a few more will drop off that list once it becomes the last 7 years. It would be frustrating to not be given any respect from the committee.

No, I wouldn't expect you out here in the first round, but if you happen to win your regionals and Fullerton did I wouldn't be shocked to see you out West for the Super Regionals, in which case you might very well be primed to get a look at Fullerton.

[danman31]

No, I wouldn't expect you out here in the first round, but if you happen to win your regionals and Fullerton did I wouldn't be shocked to see you out West for the Super Regionals, in which case you might very well be primed to get a look at Fullerton.

Yeah, my roommate is the baseball team's beat reporter for the paper I worked at. They are paying for him to go to the Big 12 Tourney starting Friday so it's possible he would get us out to Fullerton if that scenario happens.

 

As for Arnett, I'm really impressed. His secondary stuff is certainly above average for college. I wouldn't be too worried about it in the pros considering this guy has improved at a later age, he still can get better. BearSox said don't take him until 71, no way he slips that far. He's legit.

[He_Gawn]

Arnett was actually a walk on on the basketball team this year and credits Tom Crean for a lot of the stamina and velocity he has gained this season. Crean actually has twittered about him a few times.

[Chisoxfn]

Yeah, my roommate is the baseball team's beat reporter for the paper I worked at. They are paying for him to go to the Big 12 Tourney starting Friday so it's possible he would get us out to Fullerton if that scenario happens.

 

As for Arnett, I'm really impressed. His secondary stuff is certainly above average for college. I wouldn't be too worried about it in the pros considering this guy has improved at a later age, he still can get better. BearSox said don't take him until 71, no way he slips that far. He's legit.

Well Dan, if your out there and need a free place to stay you are always welcome. I'm definately looking forward to seeing this guy. And I agree with you, considering the late progress he's making there is a good reason to be optimistic about him making further progress after joining the pro's.

 

He's been shooting up draft boards, I think he goes in the top 40 picks for sure, possibly in the top 20 or 25.

[Chisoxfn]

Arnett was actually a walk on on the basketball team this year and credits Tom Crean for a lot of the stamina and velocity he has gained this season. Crean actually has twittered about him a few times.

Yep, he's a very very good athlete as well.

[fathom]

IU is in the finals of the Big 10 tournament, and Arnett pitched on Wednesday. The games are televised on the Big 10 Network, so if he's pitching in a game, please update this thread.

[Heads22]

If you flip it to Big 10 Network right now, Indiana is playing but he isn't pitching.

[Heads22]

Pitching right now on Big Ten Network, some nice breaking stuff.