Latest Starter Linked to Sox in a Roundabout Way: Roy Oswalt

[Disco72]

That makes sense from the WS perspective. However, if I'm the next GM, I'm thinking they were willing to give up that before, but it couldn't get done, they will offer at least that, plus more, or receive less, to get the next deal done. I'm certainly not going to allow them a better deal. The cats out of the bag. Makes the next negotiation that much tougher.

 

Plus, the deal was done. In terms of GM-to-GM and talent-for-talent, the deal was agreed upon. I'm not sure I buy your "tougher next time" argument. I think people know now the price for Peavy. Unless the Houston GM feels Oswalt is more valuable than Peavy, I don't see how he could expect more talent than the Sox agreed to for Peavy.

[CanOfCorn]

Plus, the deal was done. In terms of GM-to-GM and talent-for-talent, the deal was agreed upon. I'm not sure I buy your "tougher next time" argument. I think people know now the price for Peavy. Unless the Houston GM feels Oswalt is more valuable than Peavy, I don't see how he could expect more talent than the Sox agreed to for Peavy.

 

Because it isn't just about talent. It's about how much money is left on the contract, the age of the player, the financial condition of the team, if the player has publicly stated he wants out, if the team has publicly stated they want said player out...any number of factors will play into a deal.

 

[Disco72]

Because it isn't just about talent. It's about how much money is left on the contract, the age of the player, the financial condition of the team, if the player has publicly stated he wants out, if the team has publicly stated they want said player out...any number of factors will play into a deal.

 

Sure, but how many of those things make the next deal (e.g., for Oswalt) "harder"? The Pads don't seem quite as desperate to just "dump" Peavy for nothing, and Peavy seems to be the youngest and "best" player on the market. The only real negative on Peavy is the length/$$$ on his contract, but Oswalt isn't exactly cheap either.

[CanOfCorn]

Sure, but how many of those things make the next deal (e.g., for Oswalt) "harder"? The Pads don't seem quite as desperate to just "dump" Peavy for nothing, and Peavy seems to be the youngest and "best" player on the market. The only real negative on Peavy is the length/$$$ on his contract, but Oswalt isn't exactly cheap either.

 

I was just making a blanket statement. Not in reference to this situation.

[Disco72]

I was just making a blanket statement. Not in reference to this situation.

Ok, no worries. In any event, if the Sox do seriously pursue another pitcher, it'll be interesting to see how the deals compare.

[Melissa1334]

Oswalt? no thanks. hes been on a steady decline since 05.

2005: 2.94 era

2006: 2.98

2007: 3.18

2008: 3.54

2009: 4.62 (so far)

of course theres nothing wrong with a 3 and a half era. but the point is that it doesnt look like hes getting any better. i think the sox should look else where

[ThunderBolt]

Oswalt? no thanks. hes been on a steady decline since 05.

2005: 2.94 era

2006: 2.98

2007: 3.18

2008: 3.54

2009: 4.62 (so far)

of course theres nothing wrong with a 3 and a half era. but the point is that it doesnt look like hes getting any better. i think the sox should look else where

Oswalt's K per nine is still fairly consistent, stats wise there's very little to suggest that he won't remain an above-average pitcher for the duration of his contract.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Does Houston necessarily know who the PTBNL were or at least who was on the list? With that contract, you could interest me in something like Oswalt for Poreda and Richard straight up...no money exchanging hands...but you're simply not getting extra young pitching talent off of me...but with the Peavy trade, extra young talent was hidden as 2 PTBNL's.

Roy Oswalt has to be worth more than just Poreda and Richard though, even at that salary. I wouldn't necessarily be in favor of giving up some of the best talent we have, but I'd definitely include Shelby or Fields (if he's out of the picture) plus a top RP prospect (Link, DRod, Omogrosso, Jones, O'Neill, etc.) and an innings eater type of prospect. If that wouldn't be enough, I'd offer up Escobar too. That would definitely be a beatable offer, but the Sox would be at an advantage in the sense that there won't be a lot of teams capable of taking on Oswalt's contract.

 

I don't see Oswalt being moved though, at least not now. Maybe it's a possibility over the offseason, but Tejada and Valverde are coming off the books for them this year as well as several role players and old veterans making in excess of $1M this year. I imagine the 'Stros would like to rid themselves of Lee's deal, but the rumors are Caballo doesn't want to waive his NTC for anyone even if a deal could be reached with another team.

 

Peavy is out there until he's traded, but that might not happen this season. Bedard is out there now and will most likely be traded, although he'll be worth picks so I could also see him staying if nothing significant materializes.

 

Over the offseason I think Webb and Halladay are both for sale for sure. Lackey is a FA. Surprise names could be arb-eligible pitchers getting expensive, which would include Marlins Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

 

A huge darkhorse could be King Felix as he'll have over 4 years service time and the M's are rebuilding, but that would take a huuuuuuge package if available. I doubt that happens but there's always a chance considering Ryan Howard got $10M in arb after not even 3 full years service time, and just this offseason he ended up getting 3 years, $18M per year with less service time total than King Felix will have this year. So I guess there's always a chance Felix will put himself in the $10M+ range and look for an extension through his arb seasons, in which case one would have to wonder whether the M's would look to field offers. Again I doubt it happens, but I'd give them basically anything they want.

[BearSox]

Call it wishful thinking, but I'm still holding out hope we can go the Dan Haren route.

[Balta1701]

Roy Oswalt has to be worth more than just Poreda and Richard though, even at that salary. I wouldn't necessarily be in favor of giving up some of the best talent we have, but I'd definitely include Shelby or Fields (if he's out of the picture) plus a top RP prospect (Link, DRod, Omogrosso, Jones, O'Neill, etc.) and an innings eater type of prospect. If that wouldn't be enough, I'd offer up Escobar too. That would definitely be a beatable offer, but the Sox would be at an advantage in the sense that there won't be a lot of teams capable of taking on Oswalt's contract.

You know what? Considering everything...the contract, the economy, the pitching in our system, Oswalt's age, the numbers he's putting up this year...and the way Clayton and Poreda are pitching...if they wanted more than them, I'm just not giving it up. Even if all they wind up being in the end is relievers, which is looking less likely with every CR start...then we've got 2 MLB caliber lefty pitchers on the cheap for 5+ years. For the $15 million a year we'd be giving Oswalt until he's 36, if we don't have to worry about arms in the bullpen, we'd be better off spending that money elsewhere...let alone what we might be able to get with another year or two of development on some of the other guys.

[beck72]

It's interesting that the sox reportedly have their scout watching the 'Stros even though Oswalt isn't pitching until Mon. Only Bourn has any appeal, and would have to be an add-on to an Oswalt deal, with the sox involving Brian Anderson. Not sure I'd do that. But I could see the Pods experiment ending soon with an injury. Then the sox have no real option at leadoff.

 

I'd have to think the sox-Stros could find a match for Oswalt, that wouldn't have to include Richard. The Stros have little in the IF, and that's the sox strength [with Fields/ Nix expendable]. Have Poreda be the headliner in the deal, and only Oswalt would have to agree to waive his NTC.

 

On a side note, Oswalt has been a 2nd half pitcher in recent years [2.53 ERA from '06-08]. He has had a -1.20 ERA the last 3 years compared to the 1st half, with a sub 2.00 ERA in Sept. and a little over 2.00 in Aug. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ng3&three=1

 

 

Edited May 30, 2009 by beck72

[beck72]

If the sox were to acquire Oswalt without including Richard, Colon could then be dealt to any number of teams looking for an arm. His trade return, while not great, could have some value.

[DBAHO]

Right now with Richard pitching the way he is, I'm not sure if going for a big name arm like Oswalt who's on the decline is the best route to go.

 

Hang onto Richard and Poreda, and use that $40M you'd save from our expiring contracts on some big name players in free agency IMO.

[beck72]

Right now with Richard pitching the way he is, I'm not sure if going for a big name arm like Oswalt who's on the decline is the best route to go.

 

Hang onto Richard and Poreda, and use that $40M you'd save from our expiring contracts on some big name players in free agency IMO.

The sox M.O. is to trade for a SP, than sign one in free agency. And of the position player free agents, only Figgins makes sense for the sox. That means the sox would still have cash for a SP with a big contract.

 

I do agree. Richard should stay if they do attempt to deal for someone like Oswalt. Unless the sox could trade Richard for a younger SP than Oswalt, who is polished, proven and about to make big money/ get expensive. The sox would definitely be trading him at his highest value if they dealt Richard now.

[103 mph screwball]

After the Castro deal, I wonder if they were scouting for a backup catcher. Was IRod playing that day?

[fathom]

I'll say it: Richard should be untouchable right now. A lefty starter who can throw 94 mph with potentially an above average change and slider (holy cow, that thing was filthy) should not be traded. Poreda needs to be the chip we use in a trade.

[iamshack]

I'll say it: Richard should be untouchable right now. A lefty starter who can throw 94 mph with potentially an above average change and slider (holy cow, that thing was filthy) should not be traded. Poreda needs to be the chip we use in a trade.

 

Yeah, we're walking a very thin line right now. Lefties with that kind of velocity are extremely uncommon. The question is, can he continue to develop those secondary pitches and become a solid #2 starter in the league, or is he going to always be a guy with primarily just the heater and be destined for the bullpen. At worst, I think he has Matt Thornton potential. But his celing is starting to look higher and higher.

 

And if that is the case, why trade him for ANY of these guys when he'll make between 5 and 10% of their salaries for the next 2-3 years?

[fathom]

I said during the entire Peavy situation that I'd take my chances of one of Poreda, Richard, and Hudson (if he was included) being better than Peavy by 2013 when Peavy would have been making 20+million. I'd much rather have KW have some payroll flexibility for once and see what else we can add.

[iamshack]

I said during the entire Peavy situation that I'd take my chances of one of Poreda, Richard, and Hudson (if he was included) being better than Peavy by 2013 when Peavy would have been making 20+million. I'd much rather have KW have some payroll flexibility for once and see what else we can add.

 

I didn't share much of my opinion during the whole Peavy drama because I wasn't certain what it was. I would have been willing to take the gamble to acquire a guy with that kind of arm, youth and history, but it certainly was entirely possible that the deal could've ended up biting us in the ass.

 

I still would probably include Richard in a deal for Peavy at this point, but I would be extremely hesitant to include him in a deal for Oswalt.

 

The good thing about all this is that now that he has shown some flashes, Richard has increased his value tremendously. And given the fact that there are still 2 months before the trade deadline, we should be able to see this guy for at least a handful more starts to get a better idea of just what we have in him.

 

Let's hope he continues to put up good outings.

[Frankensteiner]

Why would the Astros take less for Oswalt than the Padres would for Peavy? My understanding is they're not as financially screwed as the Padres, and hence, wouldn't be as desperate to dump Oswalt's contract. In fact, I don't really see why Houston trades Oswalt at all. I mean, when people were discussing fire sales two weeks ago, I doubt anyone here thought we should trade Buehrle. It's the same situation for Houston.

[NCsoxfan]

I haven't read this whole thread to see if its been mentioned, but am I the only person to think KW will aggressively go after Bedard?

[hawkubes]

Why would the Astros take less for Oswalt than the Padres would for Peavy? My understanding is they're not as financially screwed as the Padres, and hence, wouldn't be as desperate to dump Oswalt's contract. In fact, I don't really see why Houston trades Oswalt at all. I mean, when people were discussing fire sales two weeks ago, I doubt anyone here thought we should trade Buehrle. It's the same situation for Houston.

Probably because Peavy's a better pitcher than Oswalt is

[beck72]

I'd be real hesitant to start reserving a plaque for Richard in Cooperstown just yet. Don't get me wrong. It's nice to see Clayton throw well. Yet KC came into last night's game on a 2-6 slide, only scoring 21 runs in those 8 games. Pittsburgh was also on a slide when he shut them down.

 

I wouldn't include Richard in a deal for Oswalt. Poreda would probably be the guy to include. But to say Richard shouldn't be included in any type of deal is a bit premature.

 

[justBLAZE]

ESPNchicago picked up the story..

[southsider2k5]

I haven't read this whole thread to see if its been mentioned, but am I the only person to think KW will aggressively go after Bedard?

 

I don't think it has been said in this thread, but most are of the opinion that Ozzie would eat Bedard for lunch. Ozzie likes his pitchers tough and fearless, not mushy like pudding.