How did Nate McLouth end up in Atlanta and not here?

[Dick Allen]

i would have been upset had we acquired him

So would I. He would have cut into Dewayne Wise's playing time and when Quentin got back, Scotty Pods wouldn't have been able to play CF every day. I don't know what KW would have had to give up to get him, but I would imagine is at least one or two of the same guys he would have to dangle to get a legit pitcher. He was wise to hang on for that.

[greg775]

i would have been upset had we acquired him

 

Why? He would have been a legitimate pickup. And if Beckham is good like everybody says, that would have been 2 significant upgrades to our lineup in a week.

Let's hope Pods keeps doing OK in the days leading up to Danks.

[Kyyle23]

I am going to try and answer the thread question as honestly as possible

 

 

Nate McLouth ended up in Atlanta instead of Chicago because Atlanta traded 3 players for him, and the White Sox did not

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If you wanted a comparable package, on possibly the low-end, it's probably something along the lines of Poreda, Shelby, and Hudson.

 

Just gonna throw that out there.

I really don't think we have anything comparable. In our system we've got a few guys who are as advanced, but those guys are all either way better than the guys the Braves traded or are not anywhere near as good of prospects as the Braves guys. The Braves have (or had) such a great system because there were the untouchable superstar prospects, some solid prospects in the middle, then some low-level guys with potential. The Braves traded solid, advanced, non-star prospects from that middle area which for the most part we do not have.

 

I think if we were going to beat the Braves package value-wise, we'd have had to either offer one of our top-level prospects (like your package above), or we'd have had to make up the difference in quantity from the lower levels of the system. Either type of deal is very dangerous for us because we're forced to give up players with higher ceilings than the guy we're trading for, and the guy we're trading for is a lot more solid than star.

 

I don't see the risk/reward being there for McLouth. He'd be a future corner OF for us, and in our park I want someone with more power there anyway. If Kenny knew McLouth was on the market and still didn't make the deal, then I support him 100% on that, and I am glad he didn't.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Im not overly impressed with any of the prospects the Pirates got for McLouth, I dont think any of them end up being impact players in the majors at all. The one who might seems to be Locke, but Gorky's to me looks like a 4th OF and the 3rd guy has stunk in the majors already.

I don't think McLouth was going to end up bringing in any impact prospects anyway, at least not from a smart GM. Maybe if their GM shopped McLouth he could have gotten a better prospect from someone, but the risk there for an organization like Pittsburgh is that if you shop McLouth it's bound to take off in the media, and even though they already have a horrible reputation and their fans are angry, you don't want to make it worse by making matters public. They wanted to deal McLouth and they wanted to do it quietly, and I think they got a good return.

Edited June 5, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[DBAHO]

Ok here's a scenario then for all of the people who wanted McLouth here for the Sox?

 

Would you trade for Aaron Rowand right now considering;

 

1 - He's got what 3 and a half years and about $50M left on his contract.

2 - And he's hitting .294/.357/.486 right now (hence the Giants prob wouldn't giv him up considering their lack of offense).

 

Whoever suggested Hunter Pence though, that kid is on fire and he's got an OPS of .919 so far this season.

 

Would love to have him, but boy he wouldn't come cheaply that's for sure.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Ok here's a scenario then for all of the people who wanted McLouth here for the Sox?

 

Would you trade for Aaron Rowand right now considering;

 

1 - He's got what 3 and a half years and about $50M left on his contract.

2 - And he's hitting .294/.357/.486 right now (hence the Giants prob wouldn't giv him up considering their lack of offense).

 

Whoever suggested Hunter Pence though, that kid is on fire and he's got an OPS of .919 so far this season.

 

Would love to have him, but boy he wouldn't come cheaply that's for sure.

No chance on Rowand. The salary space we have going forward is going to disappear quickly, and it when is does disappear, I want it to disappear because we have added a legitimate ace to the front of our rotation.

[GreatScott82]

No chance on Rowand. The salary space we have going forward is going to disappear quickly, and it when is does disappear, I want it to disappear because we have added a legitimate ace to the front of our rotation.

Ditto. We have the resources to add a legit bat and a starting pitcher. Pittsburgh recieved some pretty good prospects for McClouth, i think we can give them a pretty good package for Freddy Sanchez.. thats the guy i really want as our leadoff hitter.

 

 

[VAfan]

Just a couple of responses.

 

First, I'm no expert on Nate McLouth, but how did he win a Gold Glove if he's not much as a fielder? Maybe he's not Brian Anderson, but he's got to be a significant defensive upgrade over DeWayne Wise or Scott Podsednik.

 

Second, we have no left handed power other than Jim Thome in our lineup, who will be gone next year. McLouth had 26 HRs last year at age 26, with 9 so far this year. So far, our CFs have combined for a total of 1 HR, by Brian Anderson. Wise is still searching for his first extra base hit. And we know Pods has no power. For the Sox to win in our ballpark, we need a team that can hit the ball out of the park.

 

Third, Jordan Danks isn't going to help us this year or next year. To think otherwise is equivalent to thinking that Getz or Fields were ready this year. McLouth is a proven major league player now. If the Sox want to repeat as division champs this year, they need to improve their offense far more than their pitching.

 

McLouth would have been a solid and significant upgrade in CF. The guy has a consistent OBP around .350, which would place him third on our club. Plus, he has 64 career stolen bases, and has been caught stealing only 5 times! That's enough speed and OBP to hit him lead off if we wanted to.

 

The only issue for me would have been what it might have cost us. The Braves didn't give up any top prospects, so I'm not sure we would have had to either. And for three guys who might make it to the major leagues and might be players if they get there, it seems like it would have been a tiny cost to acquire a real CF with speed, power, a solid OBP, and enough fielding to win a GG.

[ThunderBolt]

Just a couple of responses.

 

First, I'm no expert on Nate McLouth, but how did he win a Gold Glove if he's not much as a fielder?

A lot of his “spectacular” plays got lot publicity on national television. Those voters who weren’t objective failed to notice that these dives were necessary due to McLouth’s startling lack of range and inability to get good reads of the ball off the bat.

[CanOfCorn]

McLouth is under contract for 3 more years. The White Sox don't need an OF for 3 more years.

 

/story

[ThunderBolt]

McLouth is under contract for 3 more years. The White Sox don't need an OF for 3 more years.

 

/story

+1, if we do get a placeholder CF it won't be for anything more then 2 years. Not with Jordan Danks performing in our system.

[Chisoxfn]

McLouth is under contract for 3 more years. The White Sox don't need an OF for 3 more years.

 

/story

Why not? I'm not arguing for or against MClouth, rather commenting that they have Jordan Danks and Carlos Quentin. You could tell me that one of Fields/Viciedo might end up in the OF as well but that is if all goes well. So I'd say that there is a need for an outfielder.

 

Plus, even if Viciedo and Brandon Allen both pan out and you have an extra outfielder, you can always rotate one player at the DH spot with the other player 1st base.

 

If a really good young CFer was out there, I'd jump on him hard and make him a member of the next core, just the same as I'd do for a front of the rotation young starter.

[BaseballNick]

A lot of his “spectacular” plays got lot publicity on national television. Those voters who weren’t objective failed to notice that these dives were necessary due to McLouth’s startling lack of range and inability to get good reads of the ball off the bat.

 

So let me get this straight, all of the managers and coaches of the National League who voted for McLouth to win the GG didn't notice his "startling" lack of range? Surprising, seeing that they're the ones watching him play every single day, and you are likely the one watching him on SC or BBTN.

[Balta1701]

So let me get this straight, all of the managers and coaches of the National League who voted for McLouth to win the GG didn't notice his "startling" lack of range? Surprising, seeing that they're the ones watching him play every single day, and you are likely the one watching him on SC or BBTN.

Do we really need to go through some of the embarrassing examples of gold gloves being handed out to people who totally don't deserve them? Palmeiro in 1999 winning at 1b when he spent 135 games at DH? Torii Hunter winning for playing 1/2 of a season? Derek Jeter winning one period?

Here's some commentar on McLouth's glove.

In John Dewan’s plus/minus defensive rankings—perhaps the most valuable metric used to evaluate defensive value—McLouth ranked as the least effective defender at center field in the majors. He finished with a -40 rating, which was the worst total among all outfielders overall as well.

 

Beltran, on the other hand, finished with a +24 rating. The New York star, who was recognized by Bill James in the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, had a fine year roaming the gaps in the final year at Shea Stadium.

 

It gets worse for McLouth, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ defensive data, he was 17 runs worse than the average major league center fielder. He also finished 11th in range factor and 17th in zone rating.

 

Essentially, McLouth has terrible range, and did not convert as many balls hit into a certain area as nearly every other player at the center field position. Which is what matters most. While he was sure handed in the plays that were hit near where he was positioned, he had a difficult time getting to balls out of his zone.

 

Clearly, the coaches and managers relied on three things to make their decision here: subjective opinions (what they saw with their eyes, in the brief encounters that they had against the Pirates), his offensive output (which should not play a factor in the decision process for a fielding award) and traditional (and meaningless, on their own sometimes) statistics like fielding percentage, which does not account for balls that certain players cannot get to due to poor range.

 

The Gold Glove award system has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years. First, there was the voters' egregious error during the Rafael Palmeiro fiasco in 1999, when the Texas Rangers slugger played in only 28 games at first base yet somehow managed to take home the prize at his position.

 

Then, in several instances in the past decade, many outstanding offensive players, and mediocre fielders, earned the hardware based on their offensive output and reputation. Russell Martin, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ backstop, provides a recent example, in 2007, when Yadier Molina was so far superior behind the plate that it was almost comical.

 

Yet again, even though there is still not perfect metric out there to evaluate defense yet, objective data has proven to be more useful than relying on subjective images and overrated traditional stats.

 

And, with every McLouth gaffe, winning a Gold Glove Awards become less of an honor on a player’s resume.

[Texsox]

Yeah, we easily could have bettered Atlanta's deal, but McLouth is simply not worth the cost. We have a very good CF and leadoff prospect in Jordan Danks, who is probably a 1 - 1 ½ years away. Once Danks is ready, we'd have to move McLouth to a corner spot, where his production would only be league average at best. No reason to waste valuable assets on a short-term upgrade in CF.

 

Also, it's pretty clear that Kenny's focus right now is a front-line starter who can help this year and in the future. We shouldn't trade any of the young players we have in AA unless it's for a right-handed, stud pitcher who's locked up for several seasons. If we need do an upgrade at CF or 2B, we should be able to find some cheap short-term options once we get closer to the trading deadline just because of the economy.

 

Welcome to soxtalk.

[BearSox]

Another thing about McLouth's D, his inability to get good reads on the ball wouldn't be much of a factor at the cell, since we have one of the smaller outfields.

[jenksycat]

So let me get this straight, all of the managers and coaches of the National League who voted for McLouth to win the GG didn't notice his "startling" lack of range? Surprising, seeing that they're the ones watching him play every single day, and you are likely the one watching him on SC or BBTN.

 

Every GG Jeter has sitting in his trophy case would suggest yes, most voters don't know what the f*** they are doing.

[VAfan]

OK -- I'll accept the post that indicates McLouth's defensive metrics are not good over the fact that he received a Gold Glove. I buy the stats more than the votes. Still, I would have made a deal, because McLouth's other stats could have really helped this club.

 

First, we wouldn't have been giving up Brian Anderson, who could have continued to fill his 4th outfielder LIDP role.

 

Second, you can't tell me we are overly concerned about defense in CF. Otherwise we never would have trotted Rob Mackowiak out there, or DeWayne Wise, or Scott Podsednik, or Nick Swisher, or Jerry Owens, or any of the non-Anderson yahoos we've used in CF since Aaron Rowand left us in 2006. Sight unseen, I can't imagine Nate McLouth to be any worse defensively than any non-Anderson player we've put out there in recent years.

 

Third, we need more power AND speed AND OBP in this lineup, and McLouth would have given us all three. And the fact that McLouth has LEFTY power would have been a huge plus. Unless we trade for some new body between now and next season, we're looking at a lineup next year where AJ Pierzynski is the only lefty who can hit a HR, and he's never hit 20 HRs in a year in his career.

 

IMHO, we need to address our offense more than we need a front-line right handed starter. Though I would have been fine had Jake Peavy said yes to that deal, we wouldn't have won anything if we don't address our complete lack of power. If this team could manage even 5 runs/game, we have more than enough pitching to win the division. At just over 4 runs per game, we aren't even going to finish .500. And Jake Peavy wouldn't have changed that outcome one iota.

 

Bear in mind that we are trying to bring up minor leaguers who have never hit a lot of HRs in the minors and projecting them to become power hitters in the major leagues. Well, you might get lucky now and then in that respect, but even in the best circumstances it will take time. So don't tell me Jordan Danks is the answer in CF. He may be, but I expect it will be 3 years, AT LEAST, before he's producing at a major league level, and more like 4 years before he's able to do what McLouth did last year and is doing this year. That same learning curve probably applies to Dayan Viciedo, and we're seeing right now how it applies to Josh Fields. Brian Anderson is another guy who might have been projected to become a decent power hitter, but he's never been given enough ABs to develop into one.

 

Give me someone like Nate McLouth in a heartbeat. He's 27, fast and with an incredible stolen base rate, a lefty, with a solid .350 OBP, and a consistent .450+ power stroke, who can play a position of great need on the Sox. With a pretty cheap 3-year contract, he would be very easy to move after two years if Jordan Danks is really ready to take over. But if he continues to improve on the power side -- say up to 30 HRs -- he'd also be someone who could hold down RF respectably. And with Jermaine Dye likely to be gone before too long, or moved to DH, that's another hole that needs filling.

 

We obviously missed out on McLouth. But if his clone were available, I'd grab him. With what we've got now, we aren't going to make it to the postseason.

 

 

[ILMOU]

So don't tell me Jordan Danks is the answer in CF. He may be, but I expect it will be 3 years, AT LEAST, before he's producing at a major league level, and more like 4 years before he's able to do what McLouth did last year and is doing this year.

 

FYI, Buddy Bell just said last night that Jordan Danks is Major League ready NOW. I'll take a bet on your 3 year prediction.

[beck72]

Yeah, we easily could have bettered Atlanta’s deal, but McLouth is simply not worth the cost. We have a very good CF and leadoff prospect in Jordan Danks, who is probably a 1 - 1 ½ years away. Once Danks is ready, we’d have to move McLouth to a corner spot, where his production would only be league average at best. No reason to waste valuable assets on a short-term upgrade in CF.

 

Also, it’s pretty clear that Kenny’s focus right now is a front-line starter who can help this year and in the future. We shouldn’t trade any of the young players we have in AA unless it’s for a right-handed, stud pitcher who’s locked up for several seasons. If we need do an upgrade at CF or 2B, we should be able to find some cheap short-term options once we get closer to the trading deadline just because of the economy.

Welcome aboard

 

You took the words right out of my mouth. The short term fix that McLouth could have provided would have kept the sox from acquiring the front line SP that seems to be on the sox radar [either this year or in the offseason].

 

What the sox do very well is evaluate the players in their system. If they feel Jordan Danks is near ready to help the sox [later this year or to start 2010], then trading key talent for McLouth didn't make sense. From the sounds of it, Danks may be nearer then we think. If Danks is the CFer of the near future, then getting McLouth for 2009, at the probable expense of landing the top SP, doesn't make sense.

 

That said, I do think the sox need to have another option for leadoff. Pods isn't likely to stay healthy. But, like you said, other names would likely be available that are more for the short term.

 

 

[VAfan]

FYI, Buddy Bell just said last night that Jordan Danks is Major League ready NOW. I'll take a bet on your 3 year prediction.

 

Here's what I'm saying. There is almost no chance that Jordan Danks is going to post McLouth's 2008 line before 2011. If he matches it in 2011, then it would be a push.

 

Here's McLouth's 2008 totals: 2008 Pit 152 597 113 165 46 4 26 94 65 93 23 3 .276 .356 .497 .853

 

You really think Danks is going to hit 26 HRs next year, with 46 doubles and a slugging rate of .497? If you do, you're smoking crack.

 

But, even if you were right, that's no reason not to have traded for McLouth, whose 2008 line would look plenty good enough for RF if we let Jim Thome go and slid Dye into the DH role.

[Reddy]

Here's what I'm saying. There is almost no chance that Jordan Danks is going to post McLouth's 2008 line before 2011. If he matches it in 2011, then it would be a push.

 

Here's McLouth's 2008 totals: 2008 Pit 152 597 113 165 46 4 26 94 65 93 23 3 .276 .356 .497 .853

 

You really think Danks is going to hit 26 HRs next year, with 46 doubles and a slugging rate of .497? If you do, you're smoking crack.

 

But, even if you were right, that's no reason not to have traded for McLouth, whose 2008 line would look plenty good enough for RF if we let Jim Thome go and slid Dye into the DH role.

the better question is, do you really think McLouth will ever match his 08 totals again? Then you're smoking crack.

[beck72]

I don't think anyone is under any illusions that McLouth would post up better numbers than Danks in '09 or in '10. It just that acquiring him would have likely prevented the sox from getting a top SP that they are supposedly in the market for. Whether the sox get that SP who knows.

 

McLouth did have a breakout year last year, hitting .276 with 26 HR's and 23 sb's. But he still has only a .260/.338/.460 career line. It's not like this guy could be penciled in for hitting .300 with a .370 OBP. Kenny tried getting that young slugger to build around in Swisher. McLouth kind of reminds me of him, without the OBP. I think the Pirates sold high on him. It's not like he had a huge contract. Him being expendable, instead of someone the Pirates could build around, says a little about what they think his ceiling is.

[VAfan]

Welcome aboard

 

You took the words right out of my mouth. The short term fix that McLouth could have provided would have kept the sox from acquiring the front line SP that seems to be on the sox radar [either this year or in the offseason].

 

What the sox do very well is evaluate the players in their system. If they feel Jordan Danks is near ready to help the sox [later this year or to start 2010], then trading key talent for McLouth didn't make sense. From the sounds of it, Danks may be nearer then we think. If Danks is the CFer of the near future, then getting McLouth for 2009, at the probable expense of landing the top SP, doesn't make sense.

 

That said, I do think the sox need to have another option for leadoff. Pods isn't likely to stay healthy. But, like you said, other names would likely be available that are more for the short term.

 

 

There are several flaws in this logic.

 

First, McLouth didn't cost Atlanta any top prospects. And it certainly wouldn't have cut into the Sox' offering of Richard and Poreda in a deal for another top starter, if such a deal were to materialize. In other words, McLouth was had by Atlanta at the cost of no player who was likely to even play for Atlanta in the near future.

 

Second, by waiting on Danks, the Sox have essentially thrown in the towell on the 2009 season. See my other post on our complete lack of power. This is the worst hitting Sox team this decade. It is worse than the 2007 team that lost 90 games. McLouth could have immediately -- not at some undetermined future point - given us an above-average CF and filled one of the 3 biggest holes on this club. In a year when it won't take even 89 wins to take the division, it is silly not to consider trading for a very inexpensive, young CF who is fast and has lefty power. This is the kind of guy who, if Quentin returns and gets hot, Ramirez starts hitting like last year, and Beckham gets hot, could be a very big boost to an anemic offense -- THIS YEAR.

 

Third, McLouth wouldn't lose any of his value even if Jordan Danks is a superstar immediately -- which is an extremely unlikely prospect. Next year the Sox are going to have to decide what to do with Jermaine Dye, the best hitter on the club. If we keep him, and I think we should, the question is whether he should continue playing RF. McLouth hits well enough to move to RF IF Danks were ready next season, which is a big IF. Plus, it's not like McLouth would have lost any of his value while on the Sox. He's signed for 3 more years. If we have someone better come along, McLouth would have been valuable in trade. Danks may be major league ready, but that doesn't mean he's going to hit well, or hit with power. McLouth does both, and at 27, is still on the upwards arc to his career.

 

Fourth, Jordan Danks, with 3 HRs at Birmingham in 92 ABs, isn't going to solve the Sox power problems even if he were called up this year or next. To win at the Cell, the Sox need power hitters up and down the lineup. Danks might get there some day, but he's not close to being there now.

 

Fifth, Danks doesn't even have the wheels McLouth has. So far, Danks has 3 SB with 2 CS. McLouth's major league stolen base line: 64 steals, 5 times caught stealing.

 

The only edge Danks is likely to have in the near term over McLouth is in fielding ability. And we already have a CF who is a great fielder in Brian Anderson. We need guys who can get on base, run, and hit for power. McLouth could have been that guy.