How did Nate McLouth end up in Atlanta and not here?

[BearSox]

the better question is, do you really think McLouth will ever match his 08 totals again? Then you're smoking crack.

Why not? He's still young (28) and about the enter his prime. In fact, this year he is on pace to increase his HR total to 30 and his RBI total to 114 runs driven in. That would be an increase of 4 homers and an increase of 20 RBI's, in one year. His AVG, OBP, and SLG% are down, but I think that's mainly because he had really no protection in Pittsburgh and he was the guy pitchers were pitching around and trying not to give good pitches to. Now that he's in Atlanta with Chipper and McCann to protect him, I wouldn't be surprised to see his AVG, OBP, and SLG% go up now.

 

There's no reason to think why McLouth isn't gonna be as good, if not better than his 2008 season from here on out. And, he's cheap for the next 3 years.

 

Before, I really didn't care that we didn't trade for him, but I'm kinda upset now. You plug him into either of the OF spots with Danks and Q next year, move Dye to DH, and you allow yourself to let Thome go without losing a whole lot with McLouth as the lefty in the middle of the lineup. Plus, even this year he'd look good in the lineup and might provide a boost...

 

w/o Q:

 

1. Podsednik, LF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. McLouth, CF

4. Dye, RF

5. Thome, DH

6. Konerko, 1B

7. Pierzynski, C

8. Beckham, 3B

9. Getz, 2B

 

w/ Q:

1. McLouth, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Quentin, LF

7. Pierzynski, C

8. Beckham, 3B

9. Getz, 2B

 

I don't care what anyone says, having McLouth in the lineup would provide quite the upgrade.

Edited June 6, 2009 by BearSox

[greg775]

 

If Buddy Bell said that, then why isn't he on the big league club. Our cf situation is s***.

[Buehrle>Wood]

God I would have loved to see McLouth here. Not understanding the hate at all.

[BearSox]

One thing I don't get is the Jordan Danks is almost ready, McLouth doesn't help us in the future logic. That's bogus. Even if Danks is ready next year, we still need another OF. I highly doubt we'll go into next year with both Dye and Thome still on the team.

 

Plus, McLouth is averaging around 5 million for the next two year, and for 2012, he has an option for around 10 million. If McLouth keeps improving, that 10 million isn't really that bad of a deal. After all, by 2012, McLouth will be 31 and still in his prime.

[VAfan]

the better question is, do you really think McLouth will ever match his 08 totals again? Then you're smoking crack.

 

Why not? The kid's 27. This year he's hitting .256 .349 .470 .819. That's pretty close to .276 .356 .497 .853. He's got 9 HRs after 50 some games -- no reason to think he's not going to approach 26 again. It is certainly within the normal fluctuation. And it is still way better than what we've had in CF in ages. Indeed, Aaron Rowand, the last CF we had who was decent, posted this line in 2005: 270 .329 .407 .736.

 

I don't know how far back you'd have to go to find a Sox CF who posted numbers better than McLouth. I think you have to go back to the late 1970s, when Chet Lemon roamed CF. Lemon never had 26 HRs for us, but he did post 3 years with better OPS numbers than McLouth's .853.

[VAfan]

Why not? He's still young (28) and about the enter his prime. In fact, this year he is on pace to increase his HR total to 30 and his RBI total to 114 runs driven in. That would be an increase of 4 homers and an increase of 20 RBI's, in one year. His AVG, OBP, and SLG% are down, but I think that's mainly because he had really no protection in Pittsburgh and he was the guy pitchers were pitching around and trying not to give good pitches to. Now that he's in Atlanta with Chipper and McCann to protect him, I wouldn't be surprised to see his AVG, OBP, and SLG% go up now.

 

There's no reason to think why McLouth isn't gonna be as good, if not better than his 2008 season from here on out. And, he's cheap for the next 3 years.

 

Before, I really didn't care that we didn't trade for him, but I'm kinda upset now. You plug him into either of the OF spots with Danks and Q next year, move Dye to DH, and you allow yourself to let Thome go without losing a whole lot with McLouth as the lefty in the middle of the lineup. Plus, even this year he'd look good in the lineup and might provide a boost...

 

w/o Q:

 

1. Podsednik, LF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. McLouth, CF

4. Dye, RF

5. Thome, DH

6. Konerko, 1B

7. Pierzynski, C

8. Beckham, 3B

9. Getz, 2B

 

w/ Q:

1. McLouth, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Quentin, LF

7. Pierzynski, C

8. Beckham, 3B

9. Getz, 2B

 

I don't care what anyone says, having McLouth in the lineup would provide quite the upgrade.

 

I like your thinking. Glad to see some folks get the fact that our hitting sucks and we can't rely on AA or AAA to ride to the rescue any time soon. These next few years are going to be very rough if Kenny doesn't get moving to upgrade the offense.

[joejoesox]

Just putting this out there

 

Do people here really think Jordan Danks is going to be some kind of stud MLB CF once he's brought up?

 

This guy was, essentially, brought to the Sox because of his relation to John Danks right? I mean, I'm sure they thought he was decent based on his college stats but

 

This was a 7th round (Late 7th round if i recall) pick, that every other team but the White Sox passed on for other players

 

I'm not saying he will not be good, or great, but I think it's silly with all the talk about him being ready to contribute in a year or year and a half, given how deep in the draft he was selected

[BearSox]

Just putting this out there

 

Do people here really think Jordan Danks is going to be some kind of stud MLB CF once he's brought up?

 

This guy was, essentially, brought to the Sox because of his relation to John Danks right? I mean, I'm sure they thought he was decent based on his college stats but

 

This was a 7th round (Late 7th round if i recall) pick, that every other team but the White Sox passed on for other players

 

I'm not saying he will not be good, or great, but I think it's silly with all the talk about him being ready to contribute in a year or year and a half, given how deep in the draft he was selected

He fell to the 7th because he had Boras tell all the teams he was looking for a 7 figure signing bonus. He was a definite 1st round talent who didn't produce like one. If he didn't have the huge bonus demands, he likely would have gone in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

In fact, we drafted Jordan out high school before we even brought in John. So, there's no doubt we've liked Jordan for a while now. The guy has serious talent. He definitely has potential to become a Grady Sizemore type of player. But that's not gonna happen over night, it's gonna take a couple years.

 

Also, it wasn't a late 7th round pick. We had the 8th pick in every round last year (besides the second round, we lost that when we signed Linebrink).

Edited June 6, 2009 by BearSox

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I like your thinking. Glad to see some folks get the fact that our hitting sucks and we can't rely on AA or AAA to ride to the rescue any time soon. These next few years are going to be very rough if Kenny doesn't get moving to upgrade the offense.

I don't know what The Astros' wants/needs are but there are two guys there who would look good on the Sox right now. One of them I'm sure can be had--Miguel Tejada. He'd fit in nicely at 3B for the Sox forthe rest of the season. Beckham could move to what should be his permanent position, 2B.

 

The other guy certainly isn't being shopped but almost anyone can be had for a price. That player is Hunter Pence. He'd certainly look good in CF for the Sox this year and become a fixyure in the Sox OF for years to come.

 

Again, I'm not too familiar with the Astros, but if KW could get these two with a package of some combination of Poreda, Flowers, Getz, Fields, Anderson, Shelby, Allen or other lower prospects, while taking on all or most of Tejada's remaining salary they should definitely do it.

 

An outfield of Quentin, Pence, and Dye along with an infield of Tejada, Ramirez, Beckham and Konerko is pretty darn solid.

Edited June 6, 2009 by South Side Fireworks Man

[VAfan]

I don't think anyone is under any illusions that McLouth would post up better numbers than Danks in '09 or in '10. It just that acquiring him would have likely prevented the sox from getting a top SP that they are supposedly in the market for. Whether the sox get that SP who knows.

 

McLouth did have a breakout year last year, hitting .276 with 26 HR's and 23 sb's. But he still has only a .260/.338/.460 career line. It's not like this guy could be penciled in for hitting .300 with a .370 OBP. Kenny tried getting that young slugger to build around in Swisher. McLouth kind of reminds me of him, without the OBP. I think the Pirates sold high on him. It's not like he had a huge contract. Him being expendable, instead of someone the Pirates could build around, says a little about what they think his ceiling is.

 

What's the biggest flaw in your argument? Trying to make the case that the Pirates know WTF they are doing. And that's a HUGE flaw. Pirates haven't had a winning season since 1992, Barry Bonds's last year with the team.

 

Remember Jason Bay? What did the Pirates get for him?

 

Oh, and Nick Swisher? He posted .219 .332 .410 .742 last year. McLouth beats him in every category, plus speed, and is cheaper to boot.

Edited June 6, 2009 by VAfan

[BearSox]

Astros aren't trading Pence. They'd be stupid to do so, there's really no reason to trade him.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Astros aren't trading Pence. They'd be stupid to do so, there's really no reason to trade him.

They shouldn't want to trade him. But if other team's scouts really believe that Flowers, Poreda or Allen are such hot s***, and you can couple them together with some other young guys like Getz, Fields, Anderson or some of our other prospects along with taking Tejada's salary off their hands, would they be tempted to bite? I don't know but it's worth trying.

[joejoesox]

He fell to the 7th because he had Boras tell all the teams he was looking for a 7 figure signing bonus. He was a definite 1st round talent who didn't produce like one. If he didn't have the huge bonus demands, he likely would have gone in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

In fact, we drafted Jordan out high school before we even brought in John. So, there's no doubt we've liked Jordan for a while now. The guy has serious talent. He definitely has potential to become a Grady Sizemore type of player. But that's not gonna happen over night, it's gonna take a couple years.

 

Also, it wasn't a late 7th round pick. We had the 8th pick in every round last year (besides the second round, we lost that when we signed Linebrink).

 

a lot of that i didn't know about, thanks for clearing it up

[BearSox]

What's the biggest flaw in your argument? Trying to make the case that the Pirates know WTF they are doing. And that's a HUGE flaw. Pirates haven't had a winning season since 1992, Barry Bonds's last year with the team.

 

Remember Jason Bay? What did the Pirates get for him?

 

They got failed prospect Craig Hansen who hasn't done anything in the majors and has been on the DL for well over a month.

 

They got Brandon Moss, who could turn out to be decent. Wasn't really impressed with anything I saw from him.

 

They got Bryan Morris, who is ranked as their number 5 prospect and a former 1st rounder, but his numbers don't look that good.

 

And they got Andy LaRoche, who from what I've seen, looks pretty legit. Solid player at 3B, and was a top prospect.

 

Overall, it was a decent deal for the Pirates. Bay only had 1 year left on his deal, and there's no doubt his numbers have benefited from the Green Monster.

[beck72]

What's the biggest flaw in your argument? Trying to make the case that the Pirates know WTF they are doing. And that's a HUGE flaw. Pirates haven't had a winning season since 1992, Barry Bonds's last year with the team.

 

Remember Jason Bay? What did the Pirates get for him?

 

Oh, and Nick Swisher? He posted .219 .332 .410 .742 last year. McLouth beats him in every category, plus speed, and is cheaper to boot.

Neal Huntington has only been GM for 2 years. He's no more to blame for the Pirates poor track record of recent years than you. He was with Clev. since 1998. He seems to be doing a decent job, getting prospects and building around pitching. The Nady deal landed them Tabata. I like Morton and Hernandez in the McLout deal

 

My biggest question is why couldn't the Pirates move McLouth to a corner OF spot, if he was the offensive savior the sox needed? The sox have enough guys who can hit in the .250's and post a .330 OBP.

[BearSox]

I got a better question... why was the top prospect they traded for, Gorksy Hernandez, a CF? Wasn't the whole point of trading McLouth to open up space for McCutchen? I call it incompetence on the part on the Pirates. They already have 2 guys that can play CF, so they trade away their best player and a fan favorite for another CF?

 

I think the fact they didn't move McLouth to RF shows incompetence on their part. However, if I had to guess, they view Tabata as their future right fielder... but he won't be ready for at least another year.

 

Also, the whole timing of the deal was stupid. If they waited another month, I guarantee they could have gotten a better package.

[VAfan]

Neal Huntington has only been GM for 2 years. He's no more to blame for the Pirates poor track record of recent years than you. He was with Clev. since 1998. He seems to be doing a decent job, getting prospects and building around pitching. The Nady deal landed them Tabata. I like Morton and Hernandez in the McLout deal

 

My biggest question is why couldn't the Pirates move McLouth to a corner OF spot, if he was the offensive savior the sox needed? The sox have enough guys who can hit in the .250's and post a .330 OBP.

 

McLouth has an OBP in the .350s the last two years, along with slugging at .450+. That's what you should look at, not his career numbers that include when he first came up. At 27, anything he's shown so far is likely to be closer to a floor than a ceiling. I wouldn't look for him to decline until he's in his 30s. (NOTE: I repeat what I said earlier. Those numbers are better than ANY White Sox CF since Chet Lemon played in the late 1970s for us.)

 

As for the Sox, they need players above league average at more than 3 spots in the lineup to have any chance. I never said McLouth was an offensive savior. What I said was that he was a huge upgrade at a position of need -- CF. He's young, cheap, has enough of a bat to move to RF if we need him to, plus he's got lefty power on a team that will have NONE as soon as Jim Thome moves on. Not to mention enough speed and on base savvy to hit at the top of the lineup if we wanted to put him there. He's not Carlos Quentin. But he's well above league average in CF and good enough to hold his own in a corner OF spot.

 

But what should have been the real key for the SOX and Kenny Williams was two more things: 1) he was available -- name me another comparable player in MLB who is available in a no-cost trade, and 2) he was acquired for Atlanta's 4th and 7th best prospects, plus a throw in. In other words, for three players who aren't going to be in the majors this year or probably next and may never make any impact at all! To my mind that is giving up the kind of players we used to get Freddie Garcia years ago, or the Joe Borchard for Matt Thornton deal, or the like. It's a steal.

 

McLouth could have been a nice piece of filling in the puzzle for the White Sox. Give me three guys like that who can play CF, 2B, and 3B (Beckham may be one), and the Sox might have an offense again.

[southsider2k5]

If you wanted a comparable package, on possibly the low-end, it's probably something along the lines of Poreda, Shelby, and Hudson.

 

Just gonna throw that out there.

 

Soxtalk would have melted down if we traded that package for him.

[VAfan]

Soxtalk would have melted down if we traded that package for him.

 

But that isn't close to a comparable package. It's WAY more than Atlanta gave up. They didn't surrender any lefties who can throw 98 mph.

 

A comparable package, in my mind, would be what we got from the Yankees for Nick Swisher. Or maybe slightly more now that people realize Betemit isn't worth much.

[Felix]

First, McLouth didn't cost Atlanta any top prospects. And it certainly wouldn't have cut into the Sox' offering of Richard and Poreda in a deal for another top starter, if such a deal were to materialize. In other words, McLouth was had by Atlanta at the cost of no player who was likely to even play for Atlanta in the near future.

I realize this post isn't the most recent, but this has been said multiple times by various people and it's getting annoying. Unless you are a scout that has done full research on these players, including seeing them yourself multiple times, I don't see how you can say this. Gorkys Hernandez was considered one of the top 100 prospects in baseball by BA before this season (RANKED ONE SLOT HIGHER THAN POREDA), while Locke was ranked 7th in their organization. Considering the fact that the Braves have a fairly deep system, it's safe to say that both of them are considered to be pretty good prospects. Both of them were graded as B-'s by John Sickels, and for comparisons sake, he ranked Poreda a B+, Flowers a B and Jordan Danks a C+. I'm not saying he's completely correct, but when you consider the fact that other sites and scouts have what appear to be similar opinions of them, it starts to add up to them being fairly solid prospects.

 

But yeah, you are more than welcome to ignore all of this and keep saying that the Pirates got nothing. I don't really care, I'm getting tired of repeating this in every McLouth thread.

Edited June 7, 2009 by Felix

[BearSox]

I realize this post isn't the most recent, but this has been said multiple times by various people and it's getting annoying. Unless you are a scout that has done full research on these players, including seeing them yourself multiple times, I don't see how you can say this. Gorkys Hernandez was considered one of the top 100 prospects in baseball by BA before this season (RANKED ONE SLOT HIGHER THAN POREDA), while Locke was ranked 7th in their organization. Considering the fact that the Braves have a fairly deep system, it's safe to say that both of them are considered to be pretty good prospects. Both of them were graded as B-'s by John Sickels, and for comparisons sake, he ranked Poreda a B+, Flowers a B and Jordan Danks a C+. I'm not saying he's completely correct, but when you consider the fact that other sites and scouts have what appear to be similar opinions of them, it starts to add up to them being fairly solid prospects.

 

But yeah, you are more than welcome to ignore all of this and keep saying that the Pirates got nothing. I don't really care, I'm getting tired of repeating this in every McLouth thread.

I'm pretty sure GM's don't make trades based on players rankings in BA's top 100 prospects and the grades John Sickels gives them.

 

No one in their right mind would trade Aaron Poreda for Gorksy Hernandez.

[Felix]

I'm pretty sure GM's don't make trades based on players rankings in BA's top 100 prospects and the grades John Sickels gives them.

 

No one in their right mind would trade Aaron Poreda for Gorksy Hernandez.

I'm not disagreeing with that, I'm just saying that it's pretty obvious that the Pirates didn't get nothing back. That is, of course, unless people posting on a White Sox message board know more than people who do this for a living, but nothing has given me any reason to believe that.

[BearSox]

I'm not disagreeing with that, I'm just saying that it's pretty obvious that the Pirates didn't get nothing back. That is, of course, unless people posting on a White Sox message board know more than people who do this for a living, but nothing has given me any reason to believe that.

I previously said they got nothing in return, but I've backed off a bit. I say the Pirates got a crappy deal for McLouth, but the players they got in return aren't terrible. Morton could turn into a decent 4 or 5, and Hernandez could be a decent OF in a few years. I guess Locke has some good stuff, but he's stuggled in the minors and is still quite a ways away.

 

The thing I don't get, why even want Hernandez as a return? You got two CF's in your lineup already with McCutchen and Morgan, and Tabata is the future in RF, and Hernandez doesn't hit for power. I guess he could be trade bait, but that seems like a bad move, IMO.

[beck72]

There are several flaws in this logic.

 

First, McLouth didn't cost Atlanta any top prospects. And it certainly wouldn't have cut into the Sox' offering of Richard and Poreda in a deal for another top starter, if such a deal were to materialize. In other words, McLouth was had by Atlanta at the cost of no player who was likely to even play for Atlanta in the near future.

 

Second, by waiting on Danks, the Sox have essentially thrown in the towell on the 2009 season. See my other post on our complete lack of power. This is the worst hitting Sox team this decade. It is worse than the 2007 team that lost 90 games. McLouth could have immediately -- not at some undetermined future point - given us an above-average CF and filled one of the 3 biggest holes on this club. In a year when it won't take even 89 wins to take the division, it is silly not to consider trading for a very inexpensive, young CF who is fast and has lefty power. This is the kind of guy who, if Quentin returns and gets hot, Ramirez starts hitting like last year, and Beckham gets hot, could be a very big boost to an anemic offense -- THIS YEAR.

 

Third, McLouth wouldn't lose any of his value even if Jordan Danks is a superstar immediately -- which is an extremely unlikely prospect. Next year the Sox are going to have to decide what to do with Jermaine Dye, the best hitter on the club. If we keep him, and I think we should, the question is whether he should continue playing RF. McLouth hits well enough to move to RF IF Danks were ready next season, which is a big IF. Plus, it's not like McLouth would have lost any of his value while on the Sox. He's signed for 3 more years. If we have someone better come along, McLouth would have been valuable in trade. Danks may be major league ready, but that doesn't mean he's going to hit well, or hit with power. McLouth does both, and at 27, is still on the upwards arc to his career.

 

Fourth, Jordan Danks, with 3 HRs at Birmingham in 92 ABs, isn't going to solve the Sox power problems even if he were called up this year or next. To win at the Cell, the Sox need power hitters up and down the lineup. Danks might get there some day, but he's not close to being there now.

 

Fifth, Danks doesn't even have the wheels McLouth has. So far, Danks has 3 SB with 2 CS. McLouth's major league stolen base line: 64 steals, 5 times caught stealing.

 

The only edge Danks is likely to have in the near term over McLouth is in fielding ability. And we already have a CF who is a great fielder in Brian Anderson. We need guys who can get on base, run, and hit for power. McLouth could have been that guy.

1st-The package ATL gave the Pirates was decent. The prospects were solid overall

 

2nd-This team needs help in a few positions. But it's still too early to write off Getz, Beckham and Anderson. All three [OK, maybe not BA] should be able to best McLouth's current avg. and OBP. Yet Quentin is still the key to this team. If he's not healthy, I don't see the sox winning the AL Central let alone going far in the playoffs. This team has to have Carlos hitting or they aren't going anywhere.

 

3rd-5th points:

If McLouth was a key guy to build around, then the sox should have traded for him. IMO, and Kenny Williams', he wasn't. In yours, he probably was.

 

Bottom line, he's a Brave. The sox will make moves. And not going after McLouth was a move and a statement.

[sircaffey]

The thing I don't get, why even want Hernandez as a return? You got two CF's in your lineup already with McCutchen and Morgan, and Tabata is the future in RF, and Hernandez doesn't hit for power. I guess he could be trade bait, but that seems like a bad move, IMO.

 

If only it were that easy...

 

The Pirates are not in a position to start choosing prospects based on position. They are in a position to take the best players they can get, period. Then you figure out who is in your long-term plans when these prospects start panning or not panning out. They are overhauling a franchise, not fine-tuning. If it was a choice between Hernandez or a less talented infielder, they made the right choice.

 

Nyjer Morgan is not part of their future plans, and shouldn't be. You need 2 CFs to cover the OF ground at PNC as LF is HUGE. One of the reason McLouth was kept in CF is because LF is the harder position to play in that stadium. Hernandez would make a very nice LF at PNC if he pans out. A 1-2 of Hernandez and McCutchen would be a fantastic duo if all goes well.