Sox suffering from serious power shortage

VAfan · June 5, 2009

Since 2002, the Sox have failed to tally 200 HRs only one year, in 2007 when we lost 90 games. That year we hit 190 HRs. This yrear, with 53 HRs in 53 games, we're obviously on a pace for 162 dingers. That's horrible in the Cell. We might do a little better if Quentin returns to health and stays healthy, and we should expect Ramirez to pick it up like he did last year, but we've got to do a LOT better if we want to contend.

Here are the problem positions:

CF -- 1 total HR, from Brian Anderson. See my other post as to why I wish we'd picked up Nate McLouth and his 9 HRs. Unless we make a trade, there is no hope for improving these numbers.

2B -- 2 total HRs, both from Jayson Nix in one game. (Nix's other 2 HRs came at SS.) Chris Getz has no HRs, and none should be expected if we keep playing him here. This is why I hope they reconsider playing Beckham mostly at 3B. He has more chance to help close our power gap playing 2B.

3B -- 2 total HRs, by Josh Fields, who hasn't hit a HR since early May. Field's poor play and lack of power argues for putting Beckham here, except that the Sox have at least a possibility of bringing up another power-hitting 3B option in Dayan Viciedo. And Fields, with 23 HRs in 100 games two years ago, also has at least the possibility of finding his power stroke again, whereas Getz never will have one. Maybe Viciedo isn't ready yet. Fine. Then play Fields at 3B and Beckham at 2B. Or play Jayson Nix regularly until Viciedo is ready. (The problem with that is that Nix can back up all the infield positions, while neither Getz nor Fields can.)

SS -- 5 HRs total, 3 by Ramirez and 2 by Nix. Alexei has a long way to go to match his 21 HRs from last year. He's on pace for 9-10.

Here are the places we need to notch it up a little.

LF -- Quentin's 8 HRs are also a huge drop off from his 36 last year. He's on pace for about 25 HRs. Needless to say, Pods has added nothing here.

DH -- 9 by Jim Thome. Jim is also not going to make the 34 he hit last season.

These are the positions doing as well as last season.

1B -- 7 HRs by Paul Konerko is just about right on pace for last year's 22 HRs. Of course, this is still below Konerko's average. We need some positions to be doing better than last year, but 1B is not it.

C -- 5 HRs by AJ is about on pace to match the 13 he had last year, maybe better it by 1 or 2.

Finally, this is the ONLY position where we are doing better.

RF -- 14 HRs by Jermaine is a better pace than the 34 he posted last year. He might tail off, or get hot, but expect AJ to be back up near 40 HRs by season's end.

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Conclusion: The Sox can ill afford to trot out no-power players at 3-5 positions in the lineup every day. I think that's the main reason we brought up Gordon Beckham. But he can fill only 1 slot, when we have at least 3 major holes, 4 if Quentin is sidelined, and 5 if Ramirez doesn't find his power stroke again.

So, how do we fix this? Gordon Beckham's call up is a good start. I would also call up Viciedo soon, perhaps around the All-Star break. Give Jayson Nix more playing time until then, or hope Fields can find his power stroke. I would dump DeWayne Wise. I'd trade Chris Getz or send him back to AAA until we trade him. Podsednik would play only if he's hot; but I'd really we rather play Brian Anderson until we trade for someone or until Jordan Danks is ready. It's not going to be easy, but we can ill afford a no-power lineup in the Cell.

The Sox don't need to get all their HRs from just a couple spots in the lineup. My preference would be 9 guys who can each hit more than 10 HRs per year. I'd be willing to let in 1 light hitter, if they compensated with speed and a high OBP, but do we have that guy? Chris Getz is not it. Nor is Scott Podsednik, except in short stretches.

Looking down the line, the prospects get even scarier if we let go of Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko. This is one reason I think we'll be picking up Dye's option next year, or writing a new contract for a couple more years, even if it means moving him to DH most of the time. We don't have anyone else who can be counted on for 35-40 HRs per year.

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Please offer better solutions if you've got them. The bottom line is we cannot fix this in my opinion based on what we have in the pipeline. Kenny's going to have to make a trade or two or we're going to have to be active in free agency. The White Sox cannot field a winning team in the Cell without hitting a lot more HRs than what we're looking at.

Edited June 5, 2009 by VAfan

almagest · June 5, 2009

Suggesting that the Sox need to hit MORE homeruns? Someone here is going to have an aneurysm.

greg775 · June 5, 2009

Interesting stuff. Can't argue with anything really. Our power outage sucks.

Jerksticks · June 5, 2009

I agree with most of this. Homeruns can change a game. Not saying all 81 games can be changed, but the majority should.

jenksycat · June 5, 2009

bringing up Dayan and his 3 hr's in 201 AB's does absolutely nothing.

striker · June 5, 2009

White Sox are batting .254 as a team. I would settle for just a base hit right now. And I don't mean 20 one game and 5 another.

fathom · June 5, 2009

But..but..but...2005! You know, Ozzieball! It's not speed this team has been lacking, it's OBP guys outside of the middle of the order.

GreatScott82 · June 5, 2009

Anytime you have Wise, Nix, Fields and Pods in your lineup on a consistent basis, the chances of your offense going to suck are very good.

VAfan · June 5, 2009

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 5, 2009 -> 06:57 PM)

But..but..but...2005! You know, Ozzieball! It's not speed this team has been lacking, it's OBP guys outside of the middle of the order.

The 2005 team hit 200 HRs. Remember, that's why they coined the term "smart ball" instead of "small ball." OBP doesn't do you much good without the 3-run HR.

Edited June 5, 2009 by VAfan

BearSox · June 6, 2009

Homers are great, but I really don't care. All that matters is getting runs and when you get them. If you get good hitters, you'll score runs... you don't have to hit 200+ homers to score runs.

As for Beckham, right now 3B is the best spot for him on this team. However, that doesn't mean he can't shift over to 2B or SS next year or even after the deadline.

greg775 · June 6, 2009

Anytime you have Wise, Nix, Fields and Pods in your lineup on a consistent basis, the chances of your offense going to suck are very good.

Exactly. Even Anderson can be added to that mix. We need a healthy, productive CQ to go with a productive Beckham to turn this lineup around. We've got too many guys who are reserves.

South Side Fireworks Man · June 6, 2009

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jun 5, 2009 -> 06:52 PM)

Anytime you have Wise, Nix, Fields and Pods in your lineup on a consistent basis, the chances of your offense going to suck are very good.

Agreed, but don't forget about Anderson and Getz. In fact, right now I'd take Pods and Nix over them.

South Side Fireworks Man · June 6, 2009

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 5, 2009 -> 10:20 PM)

Exactly. Even Anderson can be added to that mix. We need a healthy, productive CQ to go with a productive Beckham to turn this lineup around. We've got too many guys who are reserves.

We need a real third baseman and a real centerfielder. Let Beckham play second base. That coupled with a healthy Quentin would turn this lineup around.

Jordan4life_2007 · June 6, 2009

Sox suffering from "power" shortage needs to be changed to Sox suffering from "talent" shortage.

Jimbo's Drinker · June 6, 2009

Getz, Nix, Anderson, Castro, Wise would be a great bench.

Now, get CF and a health Quentin.

justBLAZE · June 6, 2009

QUOTE (Jimbo's Drinker @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 01:01 AM)

Getz, Nix, Anderson, Castro, Wise would be a great bench.

Now, get CF and a health Quentin.

Who plays 2B?

Beckham?

Who plays 3B?

Fields?

Give me this lineup till ASB

Podsednik CF

Ramirez SS

Dye RF

Thome DH

Konerko 1B

Quentin LF

Beckham 3B

AJ C

Nix 2B

if that doesn't work, blow it up.

You can switch Getz and Nix,

Bench Castro, Anderson Nix/Getz, Fields.

Edited June 6, 2009 by tommy

VAfan · June 6, 2009

For those of you who think there is a chance to turn this club around this season, I think you are dreaming. I decided after an absurd lineup and another shutout last night that the Sox reached their high-water mark at 25-25 this season. Unless Kenny starts dealing to bring in some players who can hit the ball with power, this team is headed for a dismal record. Perhaps not as bad as two years ago when we lost 90 games, but that, and even worse, is possible.

Here's how the Sox stack up against league averages by position. League average is first, with BA, OBP, SLG. Note that I'm using the best Sox player at each position, or the guy who has played the most. You have to discount this b/c Quentin has missed a fair amount of time in LF and DeWayne Wise has received tons of time in CF. In other words, it is even worse than it looks, and it looks REALLY BAD.

C -- 255 .316 .404 - AJ 304 .337 .453 OPS .720 v .790 -- 70 points above LA

1B -- 282 .367 .511 - PK .295 .349 .472 OPS .878 v. .820 -- 58 points below LA

2B -- .272 .333 .407 - CG .245 .310 .302 OPS .740 v. .612 -- 128 points below LA

3B -- .264 .330 .417 - JF 239 .302 .324 OPS .747 v. .626 -- 121 points below LA

SS -- .269 .325 .377 - AR 249 .295 .324 OPS .702 v. .619 -- 83 points below LA

LF -- .269 .344 .431 - CQ .229 .325 .458 OPS .775 v. .783 (Discount this b/c Pods .720 OPS) -- basically even with LA

CF -- .266 .334 .410 - BA .255 .336 .327 OPS .744 v. .663 (Discount this b/c of Wise's ABs at a .377 OPS, just better than NL pitchers)

RF -- .277 .356 .457 - JD .278 .337 .550 OPS .813 v. 887 -- 74 points above LA

DH -- .251 .335 .437 - JT .247 .380 .479 OPS .772 v. .859 -- 87 points above LA

Total -- 240 points below league average (which should be discounted b/c of all the ABs given to even worse players by the Sox.)

Here's the actual cummulative total for the Sox 251 .319 .390 .709

Compare that to last year's 263 .332 .448 .780

In 2007, when we lost 90 games, we hit .246 .318 .404 .722.

Look at those numbers. The Sox have players above league average at only 3 positions on the field -- C, RF, DH. They are at league average in LF. Every other position is below average, often WAY below. That's not going to get it done. It wasn't just that Kenny didn't fix CF in the offseason (making it worse by trading Nick Swisher's .743 OPS, which would have matched league average). He went in with ridiculous expectations at 2B and 3B too. Add slow starts by Ramirez and Quentin and you have the worst hitting Sox team in 10 years.

And yet guys were ripping Nate McLouth on my other post, saying we shouldn't have acquired him. Well, his .250 .342 .459 .801 would look mightly good to me in CF -- it's .138 points better than Brian Anderson, and .424 points better than Wise. It would give us another player above league average, with speed to boot.

Frankly, I don't see much hope in the near future unless the Sox are willing to turn over their roster. Beckham ought to be able to approach league average at 3B or 2B. But that isn't going to help much. We need at least 3 new bats, plus Carlos Quentin to come back and hit like he did last year (.965 OPS), plus Alexei Ramirez to hit like he did last year (.792 OPS). Otherwise, it's going to be a long summer on the South Side.

South Side Fireworks Man · June 6, 2009

QUOTE (VAfan @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 01:25 PM)