Fire Sale Prediction Thread

[BearSox]

Show me the last time KW realized we weren't a contender? Hell, he didn't even sell in that awful 2007 season.

Who were we gonna replace the vets with in 07 and 08? we had no prospects, and the only decent ones we had were sill 3-4 years away.

[whitesoxfan101]

This team still looks more like the 2008 team than the 2007 one, IMO, but with its best hitter injured. The 2008 team had its struggles early as well. And summer is late this year.

 

I think we see KW make a move or two early, but they are tweaks or moves that help now AND later. Then come July, if we're abysmal, that's a different story. I think the next month or so will tell the fortunes of this team.

 

2008 had much better starting pitching, and although the offense wasn't very good early on that year, it had started to show signs by this point and it had a dominant, MVP player in Carlos Quentin in the middle of the lineup. This team has nothing like that. The only positive this team has is that is has a better bullpen than the 2008 one did (mainly because of health and the emergence of Carrasco), but that doesn't matter since we can't seem to ever get a lead to them in the 6th and 7th inning and beyond.

[Balta1701]

This team still looks more like the 2008 team than the 2007 one, IMO, but with its best hitter injured. The 2008 team had its struggles early as well. And summer is late this year.

 

I think we see KW make a move or two early, but they are tweaks or moves that help now AND later. Then come July, if we're abysmal, that's a different story. I think the next month or so will tell the fortunes of this team.

There's 2 different forces that could be at work this season that weren't there last year and could have a big impact in the other direction. 1; the Economy. We don't know what JR is telling KW in terms of the budget (although the Peavy trade gives us some idea)...he could have extra motivation to cut costs now to both save JR some money and to free up money to play in the FA market this offseason, and 2. The team at Birmingham, which wasn't there last year and which looks like it's going to be moving a number of players in sooner rather than later.

[winninguglyin83]

Let's try to get more than Jon Adkins and Michael Dubee.

[Balta1701]

Let's try to get more than Jon Adkins and Michael Dubee.

Depends on who you're moving. If you can get Michael Dubee x2 for Contreras but get another team to pick up most of his remaining salary...wouldn't you jump at that?

[whitesoxfan101]

There's 2 different forces that could be at work this season that weren't there last year and could have a big impact in the other direction. 1; the Economy. We don't know what JR is telling KW in terms of the budget (although the Peavy trade gives us some idea)...he could have extra motivation to cut costs now to both save JR some money and to free up money to play in the FA market this offseason, and 2. The team at Birmingham, which wasn't there last year and which looks like it's going to be moving a number of players in sooner rather than later.

 

I actually think economywise we might be ok. We already have a lighter payroll than we did in 2008 I believe, and attendance is pretty similar to last season if I recall correctly as well. Plus, we have some money coming off the books after this year in Dye, Dotel, perhaps Thome, and so on. The two issues to me are the realistic position of the team and the Birmingham team. Even though this team is close in the standings, it stinks and I think most fair minded people would admit that. The other thing is the Birmingham team (although really the minor league system in general is a better description). Our minor league system is in better shape than it has been in a very long time, and there are quite a few guys that are going to be ready to contribute in the relatively near future in my opinion (with more guys ready to contribute in the distant future also out there on the class A clubs). I think Kenny MIGHT be willing to wait for them, trade off some of our expensive veterans, and make another serious run within the next couple of years.

[scenario]

He dumped Iguchi to save a bit of salary mid-season, and IIRC there was at least one other move I can't recall.

 

July 27th... right before the trade deadline

 

 

[Balta1701]

I actually think economywise we might be ok. We already have a lighter payroll than we did in 2008 I believe, and attendance is pretty similar to last season if I recall correctly as well. Plus, we have some money coming off the books after this year in Dye, Dotel, perhaps Thome, and so on. The two issues to me are the realistic position of the team and the Birmingham team. Even though this team is close in the standings, it stinks and I think most fair minded people would admit that. The other thing is the Birmingham team (although really the minor league system in general is a better description). Our minor league system is in better shape than it has been in a very long time, and there are quite a few guys that are going to be ready to contribute in the relatively near future in my opinion (with more guys ready to contribute in the distant future also out there on the class A clubs). I think Kenny MIGHT be willing to wait for them, trade off some of our expensive veterans, and make another serious run within the next couple of years.

The economy can be looked at like a bad thing and a good thing. Yes, we have money coming off the books and we've cut payroll already...but you saw the FA market last offseason as much as I did. There's no reason to think that there's going to be a skyrocketing of veteran prices this offseason. If you have $5 million-$10 million more to play with because you move some salary mid-season instead of waiting until the end of the season, last offseason that could have translated to Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn. This offseason, that could translate to a Duchsherer, or a Millwood, or a Figgins, or even something crazy like a run at Bay or Guerrero.

[103 mph screwball]

Where are the rumors?

 

[shipps]

Where are the rumors?

 

Joe Cowley invented all of them.

[whitesoxfan101]

The economy can be looked at like a bad thing and a good thing. Yes, we have money coming off the books and we've cut payroll already...but you saw the FA market last offseason as much as I did. There's no reason to think that there's going to be a skyrocketing of veteran prices this offseason. If you have $5 million-$10 million more to play with because you move some salary mid-season instead of waiting until the end of the season, last offseason that could have translated to Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn. This offseason, that could translate to a Duchsherer, or a Millwood, or a Figgins, or even something crazy like a run at Bay or Guerrero.

 

Oh no I COMPLETELY agree with you, that's why I think we might give up on 2009, trade some money away, perhaps make a run at a few major free agents this offseason with that newly found money we'll have, mix them in with a few vets like Buehrle and Konerko, add in getting guys like Beckham and Poreda (maybe Jordan Danks eventually?) some experience at the major league level in 2009, and see what happens in 2010.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Please burn this thread. We're 4.5 out in June and we've been without our best player.

100% agreed. Cowley knows nothing. It's just idle speculation using the dreaded "firesale" word to grab attention. If Poreda as a starter does well and Richard out of the pen (or vice versa) then we have the room to move a reliever. No important pieces will be moved shortly unless you consider Wise / Gobble being demoted or released or Colon to the DL a firesale.

[103 mph screwball]

Why now? If there are going to be trades, it would be to restructure the Sox with hopes of contending this year. It would be a shake up kick in the pants deal. If it would be to dump salary or acquire young talent, why not wait until closer to the deadline?

[dasox24]

Let's try to get more than Jon Adkins and Michael Dubee.

What? You mean to tell me that Durham for Adkins wasn't a steal on our part?

[Milkman delivers]

There's 2 different forces that could be at work this season that weren't there last year and could have a big impact in the other direction. 1; the Economy. We don't know what JR is telling KW in terms of the budget (although the Peavy trade gives us some idea)...he could have extra motivation to cut costs now to both save JR some money and to free up money to play in the FA market this offseason, and 2. The team at Birmingham, which wasn't there last year and which looks like it's going to be moving a number of players in sooner rather than later.

 

I wish people would just stop saying this. We never spend in free agency, at least on the very good free agents.

[elrockinMT]

Kenny isn't going into firesale mode yet, if ever. If he makes trades, its for now AND later.

 

 

Exactly. Plus here we go again with undervaluing our own players.

[bighurt574]

Teams don't go into fire-sale mode when they're 4.5 games out in June.

 

But I don't want to take the fun out of the thread, so I'll just shut up.

 

 

I don't think anyone is saying that we're in fire-sale mode right now. But, if we continue to play sluggish, we could easily find outselves 7-8+ games out in the next few weeks (or days), at which point we could certainly be sellers in the trade market.

[bighurt574]

Why now? If there are going to be trades, it would be to restructure the Sox with hopes of contending this year. It would be a shake up kick in the pants deal. If it would be to dump salary or acquire young talent, why not wait until closer to the deadline?

 

Not saying a trade is imminent, but in theory:

(1) The earlier the trade, the more salary you can dump.

(2) The earlier the trade, the more young talent you might be able to acquire (i.e. a team may pay more for a 4-month rental than a 2-month rental).

[jenksycat]

Where are the rumors?

 

In this thread...from all the armchair GM's

[chisox2334]

one, joe cowley doesn't become person the declares it fire sale and nor do I think it is either. Second. If they trade Paulie, jenks, danks, floyd etc. I will call that fire sale. But, telling dye, thome, or dotel to go doesn't constitute a fire sale to me.

[striker]

- We are in a terrible division and we are 4.5 games out in JUNE

- Our team is primarily old players that no one wants or young players that we would be foolish to trade

- Most of our free agents in 2009 are type A: Dotel, Dye, Thome

 

If Kenny makes a move it would be to improve the team not dump players (see Jake Peavy). As dissapointing as this team has been they still have a chance. KW will hold his cards and see if he can win with a bluff.

[Dick Allen]

3 games out at the end of July with a stacked Cleveland team constituted the White Flag Trade in 1997.

 

4.5 out on June 9 with a very mediocre Tiger team in first place and selling off parts would set this team back so far they wouldn't recover under this ownership. It isn't happening at least for a while.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

- We are in a terrible division and we are 4.5 games out in JUNE

- Our team is primarily old players that no one wants or young players that we would be foolish to trade

- Most of our free agents in 2009 are type A: Dotel, Dye, Thome

 

If Kenny makes a move it would be to improve the team not dump players (see Jake Peavy). As dissapointing as this team has been they still have a chance. KW will hold his cards and see if he can win with a bluff.

Type A distinction doesn't matter for those players because they're not getting arb at their salaries.

 

Also, some of our veterans are very good and would be worth some very good young players, although I think in any deal we're far more likely to end up with projects who need a change of scenery and/or prospects who are 2+ years away.

 

I could actually see Kenny both buying and selling. He did that in 2007 where he traded Iguchi & Mackowiak but also extended AJ, Buehrle, and Dye. Plus Kenny showed in 2004 that even during a bad season where the playoffs were unlikely, he'd still make a big addition to bolster the next season's team. He tried to acquire Carlos Delgado after we were basically out of it and he did pick up Contreras then.

 

Overall I agree that it's unlikely we'll be moving the veterans right this minute.

Edited June 9, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[caulfield12]

Type A distinction doesn't matter for those players because they're not getting arb at their salaries.

 

Also, some of our veterans are very good and would be worth some very good young players, although I think in any deal we're far more likely to end up with projects who need a change of scenery and/or prospects who are 2+ years away.

 

I could actually see Kenny both buying and selling. He did that in 2007 where he traded Iguchi & Mackowiak but also extended AJ, Buehrle, and Dye. Plus Kenny showed in 2004 that even during a bad season where the playoffs were unlikely, he'd still make a big addition to bolster the next season's team. He tried to acquire Carlos Delgado after we were basically out of it and he did pick up Contreras then.

 

Overall I agree that it's unlikely we'll be moving the veterans right this minute.

 

Not to mention that we traded for Freddy Garcia and subsequently signed him to an extension in 2004. That and the Contreras move were two huge keys that came before the momentous 2004/05 offseason.

 

Dick Allen,

 

Seriously, if you were the GM, what you do? Obviously, this team is a healthy Carlos Quentin, short above average production from 2B/3B/CF (Ramirez I think we can count on now for the rest of the season) and one starting pitcher short.

 

You're telling me you would turn around and trade some of our core youngsters (Allen, Poreda, Flowers) for a 5-15% shot at winning this year. KW isn't or can't going to trade Viciedo, Beckham and Jordan Danks...and the next valuable players down the list are PROBABLY Josh Fields and/or John Shelby III.

 

Do you really think the fanbase would be aggrieved if we were 10 games out at the end of July and KW traded Dotel or Dye to make this team better positioned for 2010? Now I'll grant you, trading Konerko or Jenks would send a few more shock waves, but KW isn't going to sit still. Would it really be better to TRY to compete with this fatally-flawed team in 2009 or wouldn't we much better off trying to have really good or great teams down the line?

 

Yes, we definitely need to wait another four more weeks, but this 12 game homestand was the time to go 8-4 or 9-3 and get back to .500. What better opportunity were we going to have with two sub .500, last place teams at home and then a chance against the first place team in the division?

 

What tells any of the fans that this team can compete besides blind optimism/hope/faith?

Edited June 9, 2009 by caulfield12

[whitesoxfan101]

If we lose the next 2 games (and looking at the pitching matchups even with Verlander's issues against us in mind, it's very possibly we will), then this thread becomes a very relevant thing. Two more losses would put us 7 games under .500 and 7 and a half games back. This division is bad, but so is this team, and does ANYBODY really think they can win enough games to make up a 7.5 game deficit?