Fire Sale Prediction Thread

[joejoesox]

This team is going to be in bad bad shape over the next 5 years at least. They're going to lose a s***load of money off ticket sales after the whole 2005 WS team is completely off the roster, it's going to be very Marlins-like in the stands

[whitesoxfan101]

This team is going to be in bad bad shape over the next 5 years at least. They're going to lose a s***load of money off ticket sales after the whole 2005 WS team is completely off the roster, it's going to be very Marlins-like in the stands

 

I'm sorry, but this post is just completely false. Our system is in much better shape now, and people don't show up to see people from the 2005 team. They show up because our fan base has grown immensely over the last 5 years.

[joejoesox]

I'm sorry, but this post is just completely false. Our system is in much better shape now, and people don't show up to see people from the 2005 team. They show up because our fan base has grown immensely over the last 5 years.

 

I wasn't making a point about people wanting to see the 2005 roster. I was making a point about people wanting to see players they recognize and that are good players. Firesale or "Youth Movement" would include a large roster of unproven players that will take at least a couple years to get decent, and we WOULD see a sharp decline in ticket sales putting up a losing record for two years or more

[SoxFan562004]

I wasn't making a point about people wanting to see the 2005 roster. I was making a point about people wanting to see players they recognize and that are good players. Firesale or "Youth Movement" would include a large roster of unproven players that will take at least a couple years to get decent, and we WOULD see a sharp decline in ticket sales putting up a losing record for two years or more

I think the reaction Beckham has gotten is a great sign for the Sox going into the future. Also, the Sox are going to have a ton of money coming off the books and knowing KW will make a splashy move or two... this is a completely different Sox fan base than before 05

[whitesoxfan101]

I wasn't making a point about people wanting to see the 2005 roster. I was making a point about people wanting to see players they recognize and that are good players. Firesale or "Youth Movement" would include a large roster of unproven players that will take at least a couple years to get decent, and we WOULD see a sharp decline in ticket sales putting up a losing record for two years or more

 

Even if we assume you're right, you can't just keep trying to win when you don't have the players to do so in order to fill the ballpark. We're not the Yankees or Red Sox in terms of payroll, and thus at some point, we have to have at least a brief rebuilding phase. I still think our fanbase has grown immeasurably the last 5 years though, and although attendance might drop during a rebuilding phase, it won't drop to pre ballpark renovation levels again.

Edited June 10, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[fathom]

Sox attendance is up 2 percent so far this year. We're one of a handful of teams with a positive increase this year.

[Rowand44]

I honestly haven't felt this good about the future in quite some time. We have some real nice building blocks already in the majors and some actual talent in the minors. Not to mention, we're going to have plenty of money to play with. This team has a bright future.

[SoxFan562004]

Sox attendance is up 2 percent so far this year. We're one of a handful of teams with a positive increase this year.

again, this is just the type of team that will muddle around 4-7 games all year, enough to keep people interested and with a move or two in the offseason there will be a buzz

[whitesoxfan101]

I honestly haven't felt this good about the future in quite some time. We have some real nice building blocks already in the majors and some actual talent in the minors. Not to mention, we're going to have plenty of money to play with. This team has a bright future.

 

I 110 percent agree with this, and I think the growth of our fanbase the last half decade is a positive that needs to be mentioned as well. I'm just pessmistic about this year, and more specifically, I think trading some of our veterans at the deadline would make our future even more bright.

Edited June 10, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[Jimbo's Drinker]

I 110 percent agree with this, and I think the growth of our fanbase the last half decade is a positive that needs to be mentioned as well. I'm just pessmistic about this year, and more specifically, I think trading some of our veterans at the deadline would make our future even more bright.

 

Kenny has never sold before, most of his trades are done well before the deadline. He was nixed once with Peavy, it has been eerily quiet lately.

[SoxFan562004]

Kenny has never sold before, most of his trades are done well before the deadline. He was nixed once with Peavy, it has been eerily quiet lately.

some of that is there isn't many teams willing to deal this early, that would have been a MAJOR move that early in the season. Freddy was early, but Seattle got what they wanted. I think if they're 7-10 games out at the deadline he'll trade at least one of the vets.

 

Also, it's not like previous years when being stuck with the vets mean being stuck with payroll next year

[whitesoxfan101]

Kenny has never sold before, most of his trades are done well before the deadline. He was nixed once with Peavy, it has been eerily quiet lately.

 

The only other time he had a situation where it was an obvious sell situation was 2007, and he didn't have a lot to sell. He has way more he can trade away and get a lot in return for this time around.

[fathom]

Just because the Sox don't slap you in the face and tell you they are rebuilding doesn't mean it's not happening. They are just trying to be more creative than your typical team going through this process. Shame on them.

 

Well said...the Poreda move today is a perfect example of what you're saying.

[whitesoxfan101]

Which is exactly why you WON'T see a firesale, and the reason why the Sox are going about "rebuilding" in the fashion they are.

 

The Sox are in the middle of a rebuild process as we speak. It started last year, and it is continuing this year. Instead of going the traditional route, Williams has been rebuilding this organization while also keeping a veteran face on the squad to continue to compete and fill the stands. They don't have a bad contract to speak of, have created a nice pool of talent in the high minors, and set themselves up nicely for a scary economic future, and still found the time to win a division title last year, and also trying to compete this season.

 

 

Just because the Sox don't slap you in the face and tell you they are rebuilding doesn't mean it's not happening. They are just trying to be more creative than your typical team going through this process. Shame on them.

 

Well this I agree with, and I trust the rebuilding process going on even with the fact I'm not the world's biggest KW fan. But I think if this team (the 2009 one individually that is) continues to trend down, the rebuilding process will "slap us in the face" a little more come the trade deadline.

Edited June 10, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[Soxfest]

I hate it but Sox will be sellers! KW piss poor job this past winter all but killed 2009!

Edited June 10, 2009 by Soxfest

[SoxFan562004]

Well this I agree with, and I trust the rebuilding process going on even with the fact I'm not the world's biggest KW fan. But I think if this team (the 2009 one individually that is) continues to trend down, the rebuilding process will "slap us in the face" a little more come the trade deadline.

right, imagine what the Mets would give for PK if he continues with his good season and Delgado's prognosis is iffy, all it would take is one other team (Red Sox?) to be interested to get a lot for him

Edited June 10, 2009 by SoxFan562004

[whitesoxfan101]

right, imagine what the Mets would give for PK if he continues with his good season and Delgado's prognosis is iffy, all it would take is one other team (Red Sox?) to be interested to get a lot for him

 

I think most reasonably minded people aren't going to get upset if we trade veterans in July while appearing to be out of the race if we get a good haul in return. And I trust that we will if such a scenario happens. I don't think we are going to sell off all of our veteran parts though, some people will stay.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Trade Konerko for an outfielder and a pitcher.

 

Put Fields at 1st, Beckham at 3rd.

[Princess Dye]

I hate it but Sox will be sellers! KW piss poor job this past winter all but killed 2009!

 

This past offseason there was not a window with which to get the team great. At least not a creative way of doing it, not without a big blow up of payroll.

 

There is that window this coming offseason when money comes off the books. So they'll go for it then.

Edited June 10, 2009 by Princess Dye

[SoxFan562004]

I think most reasonably minded people aren't going to get upset if we trade veterans in July while appearing to be out of the race if we get a good haul in return. And I trust that we will if such a scenario happens. I don't think we are going to sell off all of our veteran parts though, some people will stay.

I do to, especially since a lot of payroll is coming off it won't be crippling to have a vet or two stay around.

[SoxFan562004]

This past offseason there was not a window with which to get the team great. At least not a creative way of doing it, not without a big blow up of payroll.

 

There is that window this coming offseason when money comes off the books. So they'll go for it then.

you may also see KW do a trade deadline for a bigger contract with a completely out of contention team (similar to the Peavy deal).

 

Wouldn't mean they're going for it this year, but the Sox identify a good younger player with a longer term contract and snap it up

[whitesoxfan101]

As well it should. If there is a piece to be had that will help this team down the road, a move will be made. I will say however, even if the Sox are well out of it, you probably will see someone like Dye kept around if a proper package can't be sent. To the casual fan, it sends a pretty bad message to see your World Series MVP shipped out for two single A players. I'm not saying it's right, but the organization does have to acknowledge that fact.

 

However, I fully expect players like DJ and Dotel to be sold to the highest bidder come July, if the Sox feel they are out of contention of course.

 

I agree that a veteran or two will be kept, they won't sell everybody because of (1) the casual fan and perhaps more importantly (2) they won't get the right package for everybody.

 

you may also see KW do a trade deadline for a bigger contract with a completely out of contention team (similar to the Peavy deal).

 

Wouldn't mean they're going for it this year, but the Sox identify a good younger player with a longer term contract and snap it up

 

That wouldn't surprise me either.

Edited June 10, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[fathom]

Maybe we'll see KW offer extensions to someone like Dye at the Sox's price, and if they don't agree to it, they'll trade them. I'd love to see Dye get a 2 yr deal and return as our DH. That way, you can go out and get a RF for next year who bats lefty.

[DBAHO]

I do to, especially since a lot of payroll is coming off it won't be crippling to have a vet or two stay around.

In essence we're trying to rebuild on the fly and still remain competitive at the same time.

 

Obviously it's not working at the moment, but we're still only 5.5 games back and it's only early June.

[whitesoxfan101]

Maybe we'll see KW offer extensions to someone like Dye at the Sox's price, and if they don't agree to it, they'll trade them. I'd love to see Dye get a 2 yr deal and return as our DH. That way, you can go out and get a RF for next year who bats lefty.

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dye is kept around for a couple more years as a DH, unless of course we get a really good offer for him (aka NOT Homer Bailey straight up).