No Firesale this Year

[beck72]

The sox shouldn't be trading away players this year. The Detroit series showed the sox can compete with the "best" of the AL Central. The sox weren't overmatched at all, and lost the three games by 1 run each. If the Tigers are favored to win the Central, the Sox aren't far behind. So trading away key players who would be both 1] wanted by other teams [ie Dotel, Dye, PK, Jenks] and 2] not easily replaced by guys from the minors, would keep the sox from catching Det. It doesn't look like any team in the Central is going to run away with the division.

 

Looking closer at the stats, the Sox, even with their poor showing thus far, match up well with Det.

Pitching:

Sox: Total ERA 5th, 4.23; Starters: 8th, 4.50; Bullpen: 3rd, 3.64

Tigers: total ERA-2nd, 3.99; SP: 2nd, 3.91; Bullpen: 9th, 4.53

Hitting:

Sox: runs-12th, 246; Avg.-12th, .249; SLG: 13th, .392; OBP-11th, .321

Det: Runs-8th, .292; Avg-10th, .259; SLG-9th, .408; OBP-8th, .331

 

Right now, neither the sox or Det. match up with the Red sox or Yanks. But in order to make the playoffs, the sox just have to match up with the tigers, Twins and KC. Getting hot if or when the playoffs come is the key.

 

Now injuries could play a part in a firesale. But if Carlos can come back, and the sox start hitting with RISP like they have in the past, the young guys [Getz, Alexei, Beckham/ Fields] show improvement in the 2nd half, the offense can't be as bad as it has. The SP should also improve. Contreras would be better than Colon. Floyd and Danks are coming back to life. Richard could show some drop off. The bullpen has been lights out, and a healthy unit should keep the sox from losing games late. They have been showing what the Twins have done so well through the years--holding leads, and keeping their team in the game while they are losing, so the offense can score late runs. The offense hasn't done that. But the bullpen has been doing its job and then some.

 

The sox aren't scaring anyone for sure. [Except the fanbase, for sure] But the overall talent in the Central has dropped. That alone should keep the sox from trading away key contributors in 2009 for prospects who may help in a few years. The sox have enough AA type talent that they don't need to load up on more prospects. The AL Central is likely going to be won by one team going on a winning streak, just like the Tigers did.

 

The sox may be able to become buyers, provided its for a player that would help this year and in the future.

 

 

[thedoctor]

while i do agree that this team is better than it has played thus far, i have a difficult time pinpointing the tiger series as proof of anything.

 

if we are going to cherry-pick series and point them out, how about losing 2 of 3 at home to the team that's been worst in the division for most of the year. or 3 of 4 at home to the worst team in the west.

 

again, i still think there's hope and i am trying my hardest to be optimistic. but after 60 games i think we have a pretty good indication of what kind of white sox team this is going to be.

[GreatScott82]

I'm not a big fan of the term fire sale. Now it would be one thing if KW trades PK and AJ to go along with Dye, Dotel and possibly Thome. But if he trades away 3 expirering contracts, i wouldnt consider that a fire sale. Knowing Kenny, I could see him trading away Dye and Dotel, but still bringing in a legit starting pitcher.

[bighurt574]

The Sox have a few more weeks to show that they're contenders. So far, the verdict on that is inconclusive at best. If they can't get on a run, Kenny would be foolish not to at least see what he can get for guys whose contracts are up anyway.

[Whitewashed in '05]

While I am not advocating a fire sale yet, yes each game we lost were very close vs the Tigers, but the lack of execution by the offense throughout the season is worrisome. CQ is often injured, Thome's DL stint is inevitable, Getz has been up and down this season, then if PK goes down for any extended period of time you have Fields who was garbage offensively and defensively at first to replace him?

 

Not only that, but you have a question marks at the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Yes, Richard has been pretty good since inserted, but how long will he hold up? He has no track record to fall back on to say he can make it through a whole season, during a playoff race. Then you have Contreras, while he looked great in his first start back how long before he starts walking 4 or 5 guys a game? How long until he gets injured? Colon doesn't even need explanation as his stuff has left him for good.

 

Not to mention our defense that has cost us some games itself, though most of those errors were Betemit.

 

It's just not an easy call.

[WCSox]

The sox shouldn't be trading away players this year. The Detroit series showed the sox can compete with the "best" of the AL Central. The sox weren't overmatched at all, and lost the three games by 1 run each.

 

I'd say that losing 3 out of 5 and being 28-33 in a bad division says a lot more about the makeup of this team than "only losing the three games by 1 run each." The bottom line is that the Sox aren't that good this year, and won't be competitive in the playoffs if they're lucky enough to make it there.

 

If the Sox are back up at .500 three or four weeks from now, I'd like to see Kenny stand pat. But if they fall back further or if Detroit really surges ahead, Kenny needs to put out feelers for Dye, Dotel, and possibly AJ as well (I'm assuming that their NTCs make Paulie and Thome un-tradeable at this point).

 

[Dick Allen]

Per Ken Rosenthal:

 

The White Sox may not receive good prospects in return if they deal Jermaine Dye, since "few clubs, if any" can afford to take on his $11.5MM salary and surrender top young players in the same deal.

 

IF there's a firesale, unless the Sox are trading Jenks or Thornton, I really don't see how they are going to get top prospects, and with Dotel a soon to be FA, I don't know if I would want KW to trade away and weaken a strength just to acquire guys you can't be sure will do as well.

[Whitewashed in '05]

I'd say that losing 3 out of 5 and being 28-33 in a bad division says a lot more about the makeup of this team than "only losing the three games by 1 run each." The bottom line is that the Sox aren't that good this year, and won't be competitive in the playoffs if they're lucky enough to make it there.

 

If the Sox are back up at .500 three or four weeks from now, I'd like to see Kenny stand pat. But if they fall back further or if Detroit really surges ahead, Kenny needs to put out feelers for Dye, Dotel, and possibly AJ as well (I'm assuming that their NTCs make Paulie and Thome un-tradeable at this point).

PK said earlier in the season he wouldn't handcuff the team if they tried to trade him if they fall out of the race.

 

While Thome hasn't said anything, at least not that I know of, time is running out for him. I would like to think he wouldn't reject.

[Whitewashed in '05]

Per Ken Rosenthal:

 

The White Sox may not receive good prospects in return if they deal Jermaine Dye, since "few clubs, if any" can afford to take on his $11.5MM salary and surrender top young players in the same deal.

 

IF there's a firesale, unless the Sox are trading Jenks or Thornton, I really don't see how they are going to get top prospects, and with Dotel a soon to be FA, I don't know if I would want KW to trade away and weaken a strength just to acquire guys you can't be sure will do as well.

If teams don't want to give up anything worthwhile for an impact bat like Dye's then I'd rather get the draft picks and see if the sox can make a run in the process of keeping their players.

[WCSox]

If teams don't want to give up anything worthwhile for an impact bat like Dye's then I'd rather get the draft picks and see if the sox can make a run in the process of keeping their players.

 

Kenny would obviously have to eat some of Dye's salary to get something in return. Given his history of drafting, I'd like to see him go this route instead.

 

PK doesn't have 40-HR power anymore and is almost a lock to suffer a nagging injury that kills his production, so I don't think that KW would get much of value for him. IMO, Dye and Thome are the only tradeable hitters who will command a solid prospect.

Edited June 12, 2009 by WCSox

[Chisoxfn]

If teams don't want to give up anything worthwhile for an impact bat like Dye's then I'd rather get the draft picks and see if the sox can make a run in the process of keeping their players.

The Sox won't get draft picks for Dye, unfortunately. To get draft picks, we'd have to offer up arbitration and thus pretty much guaranteeing he gets an 11M or so contract from the Sox next season as I highly doubt anyone else offers very substantial money to Dye. I think best case Dye gets a 3yr 24M offer and maybe he takes it, but that is a best case scenario and the reason the Sox wouldn't offer him arbitration (unless of course they don't mind bringing him back and to be honest, if you could get him at 2yrs 15-16M, it isn't a bad idea, but with the plan on using him more in a DH role where he plays less in the OF or at least plays over in FL).

 

I tend to agree you probably don't get a ton for Dye, but you also have to remember that you maybe get $5M in savings that was budgeted this year. So if the Sox than take that 5M and budget into the international market or futher move it to next years budget than I might be okay with it. But they still would have to get some sort of piece in return.

 

To me Dotel (unless we trade Jenks/Thornton) is the most valuable piece in a trade.

[WCSox]

IF there's a firesale, unless the Sox are trading Jenks or Thornton, I really don't see how they are going to get top prospects, and with Dotel a soon to be FA, I don't know if I would want KW to trade away and weaken a strength just to acquire guys you can't be sure will do as well.

 

Dotel is in his mid-30's and has a history of arm problems. My feeling is that he won't repeat last year's performance (especially considering how poor he pitched down the stretch), and that it's best to sell him high now. I'd love to deal Linebrink instead, but no GM is going to touch his bum shoulder at that price. I'd rather build around younger guys like Jenks and Thornton (and hope that Linebrink's shoulder is manageable for another year).

 

[Whitewashed in '05]

The Sox won't get draft picks for Dye, unfortunately. To get draft picks, we'd have to offer up arbitration and thus pretty much guaranteeing he gets an 11M or so contract from the Sox next season as I highly doubt anyone else offers very substantial money to Dye. I think best case Dye gets a 3yr 24M offer and maybe he takes it, but that is a best case scenario and the reason the Sox wouldn't offer him arbitration (unless of course they don't mind bringing him back and to be honest, if you could get him at 2yrs 15-16M, it isn't a bad idea, but with the plan on using him more in a DH role where he plays less in the OF or at least plays over in FL).

 

I tend to agree you probably don't get a ton for Dye, but you also have to remember that you maybe get $5M in savings that was budgeted this year. So if the Sox than take that 5M and budget into the international market or futher move it to next years budget than I might be okay with it. But they still would have to get some sort of piece in return.

 

To me Dotel (unless we trade Jenks/Thornton) is the most valuable piece in a trade.

That's true, didn't think of that. The thing is KW doesn't like sending cash in trades. He'll usually take the fringe prospect over sending cash.

 

If the sox re-sign him I am sure it's with the intention of sticking him back out in RF. I mean the other day I heard DJ talk about how he's given the sox gold glove caliber defense in RF for the past couple years.

[beck72]

I'm not a big fan of the term fire sale. Now it would be one thing if KW trades PK and AJ to go along with Dye, Dotel and possibly Thome. But if he trades away 3 expirering contracts, i wouldnt consider that a fire sale. Knowing Kenny, I could see him trading away Dye and Dotel, but still bringing in a legit starting pitcher.

I consider "firesale" to mean trading away players with the view that the sox aren't going to contend for the division, but will try to be contenders for 2010. Other teams "firesale" like the Pirates, mean trading away players with the hope of getting better in a few years, such as vets for A ball prospects.

[beck72]

I'd say that losing 3 out of 5 and being 28-33 in a bad division says a lot more about the makeup of this team than "only losing the three games by 1 run each." The bottom line is that the Sox aren't that good this year, and won't be competitive in the playoffs if they're lucky enough to make it there.

 

If the Sox are back up at .500 three or four weeks from now, I'd like to see Kenny stand pat. But if they fall back further or if Detroit really surges ahead, Kenny needs to put out feelers for Dye, Dotel, and possibly AJ as well (I'm assuming that their NTCs make Paulie and Thome un-tradeable at this point).

I agree the division is bad. But making the playoffs is still making the playoffs. And I have a hard time seeing the sox pull the plug on a team that can win the division. Esp. if no other team makes a surge before Aug.

[Cali]

If the pitching is on, particularly the starters, this division CAN be won. Unfortunately the offense is way too inconsistent.

 

There are a few players named Wise and Fields that just need to go.

 

When (if) CQ comes back, Wise needs to be released. Anderson is the back-up outfielder. Fields needs to be sent to the minors or traded, your time is through Josh, sorry. Maybe some NL team will pick you up. Nix can back-up 2b SS and 3B, when needed. Call up Daryle Ward to be a lefty bat off the bench who has a little bit of pop and can actually take a walk if necessary. Plus he can back-up Paulie at First.

 

[everafan]

While I am not advocating a fire sale yet, yes each game we lost were very close vs the Tigers, but the lack of execution by the offense throughout the season is worrisome. CQ is often injured, Thome's DL stint is inevitable, Getz has been up and down this season, then if PK goes down for any extended period of time you have Fields who was garbage offensively and defensively at first to replace him?

 

Not only that, but you have a question marks at the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Yes, Richard has been pretty good since inserted, but how long will he hold up? He has no track record to fall back on to say he can make it through a whole season, during a playoff race. Then you have Contreras, while he looked great in his first start back how long before he starts walking 4 or 5 guys a game? How long until he gets injured? Colon doesn't even need explanation as his stuff has left him for good.

 

Not to mention our defense that has cost us some games itself, though most of those errors were Betemit.

 

It's just not an easy call.

 

How many times has Thome been on the DL since he's been dwith the Sox? I can only recall once.

[Chisoxfn]

How many times has Thome been on the DL since he's been dwith the Sox? I can only recall once.

I'm not certain, but he's missed a decent chunk of games with various ailments and I swear he's been on the DL multiple times but I might be wrong.

[whitesoxfan101]

I consider "firesale" to mean trading away players with the view that the sox aren't going to contend for the division, but will try to be contenders for 2010. Other teams "firesale" like the Pirates, mean trading away players with the hope of getting better in a few years, such as vets for A ball prospects.

 

Yeah if the White Sox are to firesale this year, it will be with 2010 and 2011 in mind, not 3 to 5 years down the road in mind like some teams such as the Marlins are thinking when they firesale, so I agree with you there. A firesale is coming this year though if at all possible in my opinion. Even in this bad division, I think it's pretty clear the Sox aren't going to be making a serious run this year (they were this close to being 7.5 games out and 7 under .500 after yesterday's game), and thus, a firesale is coming whether we like it or not. The only way it's not is if we can't get anything in trades for these guys, and in that case we will simply see people let go of if their contract is up and they become free agents, or traded this winter instead.

Edited June 12, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[WCSox]

I agree the division is bad. But making the playoffs is still making the playoffs. And I have a hard time seeing the sox pull the plug on a team that can win the division. Esp. if no other team makes a surge before Aug.

 

Agreed, especially after the White Flag trade. That said, I see Kenny pulling the plug if the Sox don't pull closer to first place by the deadline. Especially if the offense doesn't pick up between now and then.

 

[BearSox]

You sure about that Beck?

 

If we keep playing like this, there is absolutely no reason not to go into a firesale or retooling mode.

[ThunderBolt]

Their will not be a firesale, but we will be trading a lot of our assets. I don't see this as a bad thing, KW will maximize returns.

[BearSox]

Their will not be a firesale, but we will be trading a lot of our assets. I don't see this as a bad thing, KW will maximize returns.

 

When most people say firesale, I think they mean the trading of Dye and Dotel for sure, with the possibility of Jenks, Linebrink, Carrasco, Pierzynski, Konerko, and Thornton... and maybe Fields and/or Anderson as additional peices.

 

I don't think anyone really means a complete overhaul, Florida Marlins type of firesale.

[ThunderBolt]

I don't think anyone really means a complete overhaul, Florida Marlins type of firesale.

That's exactly what I think of when I hear the word fire sale. It has a lot of negative connotations.

[BearSox]

But firesale sounds so much better than retooling.