Idea for comment: Obtaining another front line right handed SP

[chisoxfan09]

I have not seen either thrown out here as acquisition ideas. Both carry some form of risk but high reward. Let´s look at some facts:

 

1. Rich Harden when he is on is one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball and normally is good for 6-7 innings. Very fragile as the 3-4 trips to the DL in the past 2 years with the Cubs will show.Do we make a play for him before the trading deadline? We have a trading chip or two now including an offensive need the Cubs want (Dye) or maybe omething centered around releif pitching (Dotel)) and a AA player. Either way if KW were to g after Harden do you wait until he is a FA at the end of the year and offer an incentive based contract based on health and performance? There is not much on Harden but what little there is does not conclusively indicate he wants to return to the Cubs 100% nor have they publicly commited to discussing an extension. I wonder if they are content to let him walk and pick up the draft picks as either a type A or B? Harden has obvious AL experience.

 

2. Brandon Webb is hurt with shoulder issues and no short term return date has been published that I could find. He as opposed to Harden has been an innings eater and already has a Cy Young award. When on his sinker would be lights out at the Cell. I have seen a couple of other forums posts that he may be expendable later this year if the DBacks have a fire sale which looks likely if they continue to slide. He has a team option for 2010 but if KW were to explore this route he should wait until right before the trade deadline (Depends where we are and whether we are buyers or sellers). DBacks pulled a 3 year extension so there might be real damage to his shoulder.

 

Are either worth the risk of exploring a trade/extension? Thoughts?

Edited June 17, 2009 by chisoxfan09

[kev211]

I have not seen either thrown out here as acquisition ideas. Both carry some form of risk but high reward. Let´s look at some facts:

 

1. Rich Harden when he is on is one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball and normally is good for 6-7 innings. Very fragile as the 3-4 trips to the DL in the past 2 years with the Cubs will show.Do we make a play for him before the trading deadline? We have a trading chip or two now including an offensive need the Cubs want (Dye) or maybe omething centered around releif pitching (Dotel)) and a AA player. Either way if KW were to g after Harden do you wait until he is a FA at the end of the year and offer an incentive based contract based on health and performance? There is not much on Harden but what little there is does not conclusively indicate he wants to return to the Cubs 100% nor have they publicly commited to discussing an extension. I wonder if they are content to let him walk and pick up the draft picks as either a type A or B? Harden has obvious AL experience.

 

2. randon Webb is hurt with shoulder issues and no short term return date has been published that I could find. He as opposed to Harden has been an innings eater and already has a Cy Young award. When on his sinker would be lights out at the Cell. I have seen a couple of other forums posts that he may be expendable later this year if the DBacks have a fire sale which looks likely if they continue to slide. He has a team option for 2010 but if KW were to explore this route he should wait until right before the trade deadline (Depends whtere we are and whether we are buyers or sellers). DBacks pulled a 3 year extension so there might be real damage to his shoulder.

 

Are either worth the risk of exploring a trade/extension? Thoughts?

You mean 5-6 innings for harden?

 

 

No to harden/Yes to webb

[Princess Dye]

Harden for Dotel would kind of help as each team can deal from a slight surplus into a need.

 

But I think in the end the Sox will make one trade for youth if we're good for a sec here....and several trades for youth if we're swept or near swept a few times in a row.

[ThunderBolt]

When healthy Harden is one of the best pitchers in the league, that’s the huge x-factor. If we’re doing this as a Coop/Herm can fix ‘em type of deal then it’s a worthy purchase. But if we’re counting on him to anchor even the smallest percentage for our staff I’m not sure it’s wise investment. I’m not sure if Dotel is the return. He’s a tentative type A free agent, who might be able to make the team younger and better, through a different trade or the draft.

[Y2HH]

I'd take Webb -- but Harden is too fragile, so no thanks.

[DBAHO]

It looks like the D-Backs and Webb aren't agreeing to a long - term deal either, although it's been reported that there were some red flags when it came to Webb's shoulder.

 

My guess is the D-Backs will end up trading him since they have Haren locked up out of the 2 if they keep playing the way they have, although they'll certainly get more for Haren in return I would have thought.

[RockRaines]

We are in line for a ton of picks due to all the Type A free agents we have, Dotel, Thome, Dye, I'd rather keep those picks or trade those guys for actual prospects. We need to keep building through the draft.

[chw42]

Harden for Dotel would kind of help as each team can deal from a slight surplus into a need.

 

But I think in the end the Sox will make one trade for youth if we're good for a sec here....and several trades for youth if we're swept or near swept a few times in a row.

 

The Cubs would never do such a trade.

[Balta1701]

We are in line for a ton of picks due to all the Type A free agents we have, Dotel, Thome, Dye, I'd rather keep those picks or trade those guys for actual prospects. We need to keep building through the draft.

We're not going to offer those guys arbitration. MAYBE Dotel, but he's making $6.5 mil or so this season. Dye and Thome there's no chance we offer arbitration.

[RockRaines]

We're not going to offer those guys arbitration. MAYBE Dotel, but he's making $6.5 mil or so this season. Dye and Thome there's no chance we offer arbitration.

Why not? Wouldnt their cost go down due to the market? We should def offer Dotel arb.

[beautox]

We are in line for a ton of picks due to all the Type A free agents we have, Dotel, Thome, Dye, I'd rather keep those picks or trade those guys for actual prospects. We need to keep building through the draft.

 

This

 

The sox are better off either moving through their old core, or letting the soon to be departed leave and picking up the picks. The sox future core is 300-500milb AB's away if that.

 

Keep Thornton and Jenks, The rotation looks to be set with one of CR/AP stepping into the Rotation and locking it down and the other becoming a very effective high leverage reliever.

 

The sox have a ton of money coming off the books next year, and honestly i would like to see them resign Thome on the cheap, one because Allen's power might take a while to develop at the major league level and two we need a couple LH bats and jim would be a great mentor on how to play the game.

 

 

[sircaffey]

Why not? Wouldnt their cost go down due to the market? We should def offer Dotel arb.

 

Not necessarily. I wouldn't even consider offering arbitration to Thome or Dye. Dotel, is questionable. Seeing what happened last season, not many clubs are going to risk offering arbitration. Many more players are going to be willing to accept arbitration this offseason than normal. If its a choice between trading Dotel or keeping him and offering arbitration, I'd trade him. He'll bring back a good prospect, and we'll save ~$3 mil this season. Not to mention if you offer Dotel arbitration and he accepts, you get no picks. It's not worth the risk.

[Balta1701]

Why not? Wouldnt their cost go down due to the market? We should def offer Dotel arb.

If you offer arbitration to a player, by rule the lowest dollar amount the team can submit as a bid on the player is 80% of the salary he earned the previous season, and in that case, it's entirely plausible the arbitrator would rule against the team.

 

For Thome, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him at least $10.4 million.

 

For JD, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him at least $9.2 million.

 

For Dotel, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him $4.8 million.

[RockRaines]

If you offer arbitration to a player, by rule the lowest dollar amount the team can submit as a bid on the player is 80% of the salary he earned the previous season, and in that case, it's entirely plausible the arbitrator would rule against the team.

 

For Thome, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him at least $10.4 million.

 

For JD, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him at least $9.2 million.

 

For Dotel, offering him arbitration is the same as guaranteeing him $4.8 million.

out of those 3, I would think the only one out of the question is Thome. JD at 9 million isnt bad, Dotel i guess is a bit steep.

[Balta1701]

out of those 3, I would think the only one out of the question is Thome. JD at 9 million isnt bad, Dotel i guess is a bit steep.

Don't forget though...there's very little reason to think an arbitrator would actually be willing to cut the salary of those guys by 20% unless they'd spent most of the year on the DL or just flat-out stank. So it's those minimums or potentially a lot more depending on what the other side asks for.

[ILMOU]

This

 

The sox are better off either moving through their old core, or letting the soon to be departed leave and picking up the picks. The sox future core is 300-500milb AB's away if that.

 

Keep Thornton and Jenks, The rotation looks to be set with one of CR/AP stepping into the Rotation and locking it down and the other becoming a very effective high leverage reliever.

 

The sox have a ton of money coming off the books next year, and honestly i would like to see them resign Thome on the cheap, one because Allen's power might take a while to develop at the major league level and two we need a couple LH bats and jim would be a great mentor on how to play the game.

 

I concur completely. One guy I would REALLY like is the other guy in AZ, Dan Haren. Maybe he'll be available soon.

 

[wilmot825]

Haren would be awesome

[VAfan]

The Sox need offense more than they need pitching.

 

Frankly, I would try to make a move for a key bat down the stretch, whether or not Quentin can return. The guy who would have been perfect was Nate McLouth. That's what the Sox need to be competitive.

 

For next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Thome back on a 1-year somewhat-discounted deal. I imagine Jim wants to keep trying to get to 600 HRs (or as much up the list as he can), and the Sox have no lefty power bat anywhere near ready in their system. If they don't sign Thome, they'll have to go after someone else who can hit the ball out. (E.g., NOT the Angels RF.)

 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox try to convert Dye's option into a new 2-year deal with the option out in year 3. Dye is still the Sox best hitter (when Quentin's down), and again, we have no one in our system who can replace his power any time soon.

 

If the Sox had an offense that could even hit in the middle of the AL pack, we'd be in first place. It's hard to see us getting that much better at starting pitching, especially if Contreras can even come close to keeping on his hot streak.

[elrockinMT]

I would hope we keep Dye on the fold. We have no one to replace JD and two more years with Dye in RF would be fine with me. Thome would be ok too, but i doubt we offer him another contract at the money he is making now.

[chisoxfan09]

BWebb threw a side session yesterday and is now expected back in early July. I wonder if he will just make the window for 2-3 rehab starts and maybe 1-2 starts before the trading deadline? With an option year relatively cheap I wonder what kind of package the DBacks would want. Would need a medical certificate and MRI on our side to make sure there is no permanent damage but hey he could be the right handed frontline compliment to Buerhle taking the pressure off of Floyd. Could you imagine?

 

1. Webb

2. Buerhle

3. Danks

4. Floyd

5. Poreda/Richard/Contreras (Minus whichever of the two young lefties you package for Webb).

 

Pretty sick rotation for next year at least.

 

 

[BearSox]

I agree we need another righty for the top of this rotation, but who? Haren would be a dream come true, but that would require a ton, but it might be worth it.

[Heads22]

I'd much rather have Webb than Haren, taking total cost into consideration and everything.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Webb is lightyears better than Harden and it's insulting that his name is anywhere near Harden's. Harden will never do anything significant because he'll never be healthy. And for the record I would LOVE to get Brandon Webb here.

 

If we're targeting a low risk/high reward SP then I want Ian Snell. He might be a guy Coop could fix simply because he has a Major League arm and has had success in the past. If he came cheap enough I'd definitely go for it.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Haren would be awesome

Not for what he'd cost us.

[Wanne]

Webb's been put back on the shelf and there's speculation he may not even pitch again this year at all. But here's something I found interesting in the AZ Republic and something to consider:

 

Before the game, Byrnes was asked about the likelihood of deals occurring before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

 

"It's the middle of June, and we're 10 games under .500, so there's a reality to that as far as the types of discussions we have had and will have with other clubs," he said.

 

The Diamondbacks seem incapable of stringing together a prolonged hot streak, something they haven't done since finishing April 2008 with a 20-8 record.

 

"There are points in games when you need to get a big hit, need to snuff their rally, need to make a play," Byrnes said. "It's the state of the game. A lot of teams are pretty close. We win need to win some of those series, some of those games, and going back to last May we haven't done it well."

 

Impending free agents such as left-hander Doug Davis, second baseman Felipe Lopez and infielder Chad Tracy could be trade candidates, as well as right-hander Jon Garland, who has an mutual option for next season, and reliever Jon Rauch, who is signed through 2010.