Official 2009-2010 NBA Thread

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm already preparing myself for the Knicks to magically win the lottery, draft John Wall, and sign Lebron/Bosh.

 

The Knicks don't have their first round pick. They traded a future pick to Phoenix a long time ago to get Stephon Marbury, which was then traded to Utah. This is the first year there are no protections on that pick.

[Palehosefan]

The Knicks don't have their first round pick. They traded a future pick to Phoenix a long time ago to get Stephon Marbury, which was then traded to Utah. This is the first year there are no protections on that pick.

 

Good to know.

[southsider2k5]

Unless they're going to win the title this year, I'll take the draft pick not matter what the odds. This offseason is a 1 in a million, and I'd rather take my odds with another miracle that lands us Turner to help persuade a big time FA.

 

The thing you are completely leaving out is the odds of them getting a big named player. The better the Bulls can look, the better a chance that an established someone will come here to pair with Rose. The worse we are, the smaller that chance is. If they can go out and look like a serious threat to Cleveland, it makes it a more attractive destination for a free agent, than if they flame out to a Bosh-less Toronto team. Odds are pretty huge that if they miss out on the playoffs they lose the draft lottery, and it makes them look bad in the free agency market.

[Steve9347]

Exactly. The chances are miniscule. Heck the Bulls probably have a better chance of beating the Cavs than the do of getting the #1 pick.

Anything is better than 0%... and that is the chance the Bulls have of beating the Cavaliers.

[Balta1701]

Anything is better than 0%... and that is the chance the Bulls have of beating the Cavaliers.

Could you please demonstrate that mathematically for me?

[Steve9347]

Could you please demonstrate that mathematically for me?

0.1% > 0.0%

 

You are welcome.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Steve9347

[Balta1701]

0.1% > 0.0%

 

You are welcome.

And what are the odds of both Lebron and Shaq being injured and out for the whole series? Is that >0.1%?

[jenksycat]

The thing you are completely leaving out is the odds of them getting a big named player. The better the Bulls can look, the better a chance that an established someone will come here to pair with Rose. The worse we are, the smaller that chance is. If they can go out and look like a serious threat to Cleveland, it makes it a more attractive destination for a free agent, than if they flame out to a Bosh-less Toronto team. Odds are pretty huge that if they miss out on the playoffs they lose the draft lottery, and it makes them look bad in the free agency market.

 

So you're saying that if for example Wade or LBJ were seriously considering the Bulls....they'd be much more impressed with a team that got 1 win against Cleveland in the first round than the team that got a lottery pick in the draft*? The bulls already proved what they have in last years playoffs and with Rose and Noah progressing into legit stars

 

*(if you consider the odds of competing with Cle to be about the same as getting a top 4 pick)

[southsider2k5]

So you're saying that if for example Wade or LBJ were seriously considering the Bulls....they'd be much more impressed with a team that got 1 win against Cleveland in the first round than the team that got a lottery pick in the draft*? The bulls already proved what they have in last years playoffs and with Rose and Noah progressing into legit stars

 

*(if you consider the odds of competing with Cle to be about the same as getting a top 4 pick)

 

The Bulls can only end up with a 1-2-3 or 11 pick. There is no such thing as 4-10.

 

I am saying the odds are much better of the Bulls attracting a superstar player with a good playoff series against the best team in the East than they are for a team having an absolute choke job in the last week, missing the playoffs, missing the lottery (which is the 25 to 1 scenario if the Bulls don't make the playoffs), and still attracting a superstar player.

[southsider2k5]

Anything is better than 0%... and that is the chance the Bulls have of beating the Cavaliers.

 

That's just it. The Bulls don't have to beat Cleveland 4 times to look like a team on the rise and a spot where a superstar could put them over the top. All the Bulls would have to do is play the type of game that they are capable of over a seven game series. Where as if they have the edge in the playoff race in the last week, yet lose to NJ, and blow a game lead to the Bosh-less Raptors in two games, they look like a team that need a lot more than one player.

[Balta1701]

BTW, the "Hollinger Playoff predictor" over at ESPN has it at 93%-7% for Cleveland over Chicago.

[Steve9347]

And what are the odds of both Lebron and Shaq being injured and out for the whole series? Is that >0.1%?

What are the odds the Bulls could still win that series. The "greatest series ever" needed no Kevin Garnett, and the Bulls BARELY beat the Cavs in a pointless game last week sans both of said players.

 

Cavs minus Shaq and LBJ > Bulls

[SoxAce]

I would like you to meet Derrick Rose.

 

The Bulls had the 8th overall pick at that time, so at least they were in the top 10 lottery. Unless Stern really wants to rig it in our favor (again) for us to net the other Chicago stud (Evan Turner), it's gonna be damn near impossible to move out of the 11th spot, yet alone go in the top 5. 1.7% is alot better odds than 0.3% especially when you do have a hell's chance in that near 2%.

Edited April 12, 2010 by SoxAce

[nitetrain8601]

The Bulls had the 8th overall pick at that time, so at least they were in the top 10 lottery. Unless Stern really wants to rig it in our favor (again) for us to net the other Chicago stud (Evan Turner), it's gonna be damn near impossible to move out of the 11th spot, yet alone go in the top 5. 1.7% is alot better odds than 0.3% especially when you do have a hell's chance in that near 2%.

 

For the Bulls, they should still tank IMO and try to get a top 3 pick. Getting pounded by the Cavs in four games is not going to do anymore good in their psyche than going home at the end of the season. Also, the Bulls have to prepare themselves for the situation of them getting no one in FA. It doesn't even have to be Turner. Hell, Turner has no spot on the squad as he's a SF and the Bulls would have to move Deng which I must say, "good luck with that one". If they get a top three pick and get Wall, Cousins, Turner, Favors, Johnson then they are in a great position. Even if the piece doesn't fit, they can still move him for a better fit. In any regard, those players are a much more valuable asset then getting roasted by the Cavs. And as a Free Agent(which I don't think we'll end up with one of the major ones) a team that barely missed the playoffs looks appealing to me with a core of:

 

Rose, Noah, Gibson, Draft Pick, Deng, as a core than without that superstar draft pick.

 

Rose

Draft Pick

FA

 

would be the best trio since Cold Cut. And if we strike out like I think we will, two young future studs looks much better than one.

 

The way FA is setup though, this is how I think it will play out:

Wade-Stays

LeBron-Stays

Bosh-Goes to Miami

Amare-New York

Lee-New York(I don't consider him a top FA though)

Johnson-Stays, but is Bulls' best chance at a star.

[Balta1701]

For the Bulls, they should still tank IMO and try to get a top 3 pick.

As noted previously, repeating again: this is virtually impossible. Less than 1 chance in 300.

[Jordan4life_2007]

For the Bulls, they should still tank IMO and try to get a top 3 pick. Getting pounded by the Cavs in four games is not going to do anymore good in their psyche than going home at the end of the season. Also, the Bulls have to prepare themselves for the situation of them getting no one in FA. It doesn't even have to be Turner. Hell, Turner has no spot on the squad as he's a SF and the Bulls would have to move Deng which I must say, "good luck with that one". If they get a top three pick and get Wall, Cousins, Turner, Favors, Johnson then they are in a great position. Even if the piece doesn't fit, they can still move him for a better fit. In any regard, those players are a much more valuable asset then getting roasted by the Cavs. And as a Free Agent(which I don't think we'll end up with one of the major ones) a team that barely missed the playoffs looks appealing to me with a core of:

 

Rose, Noah, Gibson, Draft Pick, Deng, as a core than without that superstar draft pick.

 

Rose

Draft Pick

FA

 

would be the best trio since Cold Cut. And if we strike out like I think we will, two young future studs looks much better than one.

 

The way FA is setup though, this is how I think it will play out:

Wade-Stays

LeBron-Stays

Bosh-Goes to Miami

Amare-New York

Lee-New York(I don't consider him a top FA though)

Johnson-Stays, but is Bulls' best chance at a star.

 

I like your idea. But it's a pipe. That's what's so frustrating about our current situation. We're not even close to being a legitimate contender. Yet we're nowhere near one of the worst teams in the league. I was hoping we'd tank a few weeks ago. Would've given us a much better chance at getting lucky in the lottery.

[SoxAce]

For the Bulls, they should still tank IMO and try to get a top 3 pick. Getting pounded by the Cavs in four games is not going to do anymore good in their psyche than going home at the end of the season. Also, the Bulls have to prepare themselves for the situation of them getting no one in FA. It doesn't even have to be Turner. Hell, Turner has no spot on the squad as he's a SF and the Bulls would have to move Deng which I must say, "good luck with that one". If they get a top three pick and get Wall, Cousins, Turner, Favors, Johnson then they are in a great position. Even if the piece doesn't fit, they can still move him for a better fit.

 

Well what if the Bulls stay at #11 which is a 99.7% chance of that happening? Bucks can just say hi, and give us their #18th pick swap. Plus, if the Bulls move into the top 3, they wouldn't have the money to sign a max type FA anyways (than a guy at 18) so that point is moot. More playoff experience for Rose, Noah can't hurt (especially for Noah, and both guys have missed games from injury so it's good to have them get better) not to mention will be very good for Taj and Johnson (assuming VDN lets him play some minutes) Turner is a SG and has been one for a while. I've heard he actually could be 6'6, not 6'7 (we'll see in the nba workouts) and even then is still very, very good for a tall SG who has his ball handles and intangibles. (which would be wasted at SF) Now don't get me wrong, I would love Wall, if he's a legit 6'4 (who knows), tell him to add muscle and he can be our 6'4 DWade at SG, but that might not be good for him in the long run. Just don't see any benefits on tanking to the 11th spot, which is what the Bulls will finish anyways as they have no shot at #10, and just have the Bucks swap picks, unless Stern wants our 0.3% chance to be greater for Chicago to land Turner. (even if he and DRose don't get along)

Edited April 12, 2010 by SoxAce

[Palehosefan]

Don't know if this has been posted.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/knic...qlxSjLDmd8yKOgK

 

"Most players believe James is staying in Cleveland and Dwyane Wade, who visits the Garden tonight for the last time before becoming free, will not leave Miami, despite selling his home for a loss.

 

League sentiment also has Amar'e Stoudemire hooking up with Wade in Miami and Chris Bosh joining forces with point guard Derrick Rose in Chicago. That leaves Joe Johnson, who doesn't exactly make the Knicks world-beaters."

 

 

I know you guys would be happy to have Bosh down low with Noah. Bulls would have a nasty front-court.

[SoxAce]

Don't know if this has been posted.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/knic...qlxSjLDmd8yKOgK

 

"Most players believe James is staying in Cleveland and Dwyane Wade, who visits the Garden tonight for the last time before becoming free, will not leave Miami, despite selling his home for a loss.

 

League sentiment also has Amar'e Stoudemire hooking up with Wade in Miami and Chris Bosh joining forces with point guard Derrick Rose in Chicago. That leaves Joe Johnson, who doesn't exactly make the Knicks world-beaters."

 

 

I know you guys would be happy to have Bosh down low with Noah. Bulls would have a nasty front-court.

 

I would love it. Get Bosh, draft a sniper as a shooting guard (Anderson, Jones or Warren at 18, or pray Henry falls that low) sign a couple guys to the vet minimum for the bench, and call it an off-season.

[Balta1701]

Don't know if this has been posted.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/knic...qlxSjLDmd8yKOgK

 

"Most players believe James is staying in Cleveland and Dwyane Wade, who visits the Garden tonight for the last time before becoming free, will not leave Miami, despite selling his home for a loss.

 

League sentiment also has Amar'e Stoudemire hooking up with Wade in Miami and Chris Bosh joining forces with point guard Derrick Rose in Chicago. That leaves Joe Johnson, who doesn't exactly make the Knicks world-beaters."

 

 

I know you guys would be happy to have Bosh down low with Noah. Bulls would have a nasty front-court.

I'd be absolutely thrilled to wind up with Bosh.

 

IMO, if you're Gar Forman...you have an easy job this offseason, especially since I think Wade, Lebron, and Bosh all have the same representation. The first second you're allowed to make an offer...you make an identical offer to all 3, as much money and everything as you're allowed to offer. You say "The first one of you willing to sign we will take". You then start to recruit Bosh and Wade if necessary, and all you do is make sure you don't miss out on all of them.

[Balta1701]

I would love it. Get Bosh, draft a sniper as a shooting guard (Anderson, Jones or Warren at 18, or pray Henry falls that low) sign a couple guys to the vet minimum for the bench, and call it an off-season.

Is there any veteran SG that might be available this offseason for something close to the MLE?

[Steve9347]

Is there any veteran SG that might be available this offseason for something close to the MLE?

Ray Allen... depending on how the league has soured on him and how much he can get.

 

Rose

Allen

Deng

Bosh

Noah

Edited April 12, 2010 by Steve9347

[jenksycat]

The Bulls can only end up with a 1-2-3 or 11 pick. There is no such thing as 4-10.

 

I am saying the odds are much better of the Bulls attracting a superstar player with a good playoff series against the best team in the East than they are for a team having an absolute choke job in the last week, missing the playoffs, missing the lottery (which is the 25 to 1 scenario if the Bulls don't make the playoffs), and still attracting a superstar player.

 

I'm just saying the "odds" of the bulls having a good series against the Cavs is about the same as them getting a top 3 pick, in which case I'll still gamble with the pick. Our second best player has been hurt a good chunk of the year and the soon-to-be fired coach is an idiot.

[Balta1701]

Ray Allen... depending on how the league has soured on him and how much he can get.

 

Rose

Allen

Deng

Bosh

Noah

I'd (ugh) still hold onto Hinrich in that case...mainly as a defensive backup, but I'd go for that. Johnson and Gibson and Hinrich off the bench, that starting lineup goes 8 deep, maybe think about bringing back Miller for a small veterans contract, and then look at maybe bringing back Acie Law or something like that, and now we're 10 deep and 2 deep at every position.

[Steve9347]

I'd (ugh) still hold onto Hinrich in that case...mainly as a defensive backup, but I'd go for that. Johnson and Gibson and Hinrich off the bench, that starting lineup goes 8 deep, maybe think about bringing back Miller for a small veterans contract, and then look at maybe bringing back Acie Law or something like that, and now we're 10 deep and 2 deep at every position.

This would be a team, assuming Rose's continued progression, that you could start talking deep run with...