Brewers a Good Match

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The Brewers need starting pitching A LOT more than they need another bat or even a bullpen arm. I don't see what we could realistically offer them. I see them going really hard after Oswalt.

If they get a pitcher I'd imagine they'll pick up Washburn or bring Doug Davis back or something. I doubt it will be anything all that inspiring, although both of those guys are having good years so far. If they think Peavy will be too expensive money-wise I don't see them making a similar commitment to an older pitcher. If they make a splash I'd expect something more along the lines of Bedard, or maybe a surprise acquisition like Jeremy Guthrie, who is in a down year but has been very good in the past and is under team control.

[Marty34]

I imagine the Sox would have moved Viciedo to an OF corner by now if they felt that was his future, especially with Dye probably hitting FA after this season.

 

It might just be an admission that they don't have a third baseman they are comftorable with for the next five years. Viciedo will have to improve a lot just to be as good defensively as Fields, IMO. So If they weren't happy with Fields defense . . . Earliest I see Viciedo on the team is 9/2010. He's going to have to show a good deal of development over the next 15 months to make that date.

 

If the best player the Sox can get for a guy like Richard is somebody with a similar ceiling then there is no reason to move him at all. I don't view his inclusion in the proposed Peavy deal as an indication of his actual value. The Padres are going to get far less for Peavy than what he is worth because of his contract and their desperation to deal him.

 

Richard has upped his stock since the Peavy debacle. If you're in the NL and squint you can see a reliable 4th starter, perhaps a 3.5 or 3 with a break or two. You also see cheap guy under control for a bit. That adds to his value.

 

If Jenks is moved it will in all probability be because of his contract. I don't think "selling high" is a term that is applicable to Bobby Jenks, because it assumes an imminent decline. I don't see Bobby as a declining player at all, and if they have to move him, they should do it when they feel they can't pay him anymore.

 

I think Jenks is definitely a player in decline. When he has a couple days off his velocity is mid-nineties, when he's used more often it's low nineties. Not too mention his devastating curve has all but disappeared.

 

I still say Contreras isn't going to be worth anything unless we eat salary or take back a bad contract in return. He was unclaimed through waivers once already and I doubt a couple starts are going to change someone's mind about picking up his contract. Seriously, what GM is going to look at 3 starts from a guy who hasn't had one mostly healthy, solid season since 2006, and then not only decide to add another $4-5M to the payroll, but also give up talent in the process?

 

Valid point. Since they were willing to take on Money in the Peavy trade, I hope they'd do the same in trading off guys to get the best possible prospects in return. That's not how they conduct business though. As far as Contreras' value, with Peavy and Bedard off the market, there don't appear to be many starters available. This can only help his value.

 

 

[Balta1701]

The Brewers need starting pitching A LOT more than they need another bat or even a bullpen arm. I don't see what we could realistically offer them. I see them going really hard after Oswalt.

If they're willing to pay him the money and give up something to get him, Contreras could fit right in there.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It might just be an admission that they don't have a third baseman they are comftorable with for the next five years. Viciedo will have to improve a lot just to be as good defensively as Fields, IMO. So If they weren't happy with Fields defense . . . Earliest I see Viciedo on the team is 9/2010. He's going to have to show a good deal of development over the next 15 months to make that date.

 

 

 

Richard has upped his stock since the Peavy debacle. If you're in the NL and squint you can see a reliable 4th starter, perhaps a 3.5 or 3 with a break or two. You also see cheap guy under control for a bit. That adds to his value.

 

 

 

I think Jenks is definitely a player in decline. When he has a couple days off his velocity is mid-nineties, when he's used more often it's low nineties. Not too mention his devastating curve has all but disappeared.

 

 

 

Valid point. Since they were willing to take on Money in the Peavy trade, I hope they'd do the same in trading off guys to get the best possible prospects in return. That's not how they conduct business though. As far as Contreras' value, with Peavy and Bedard off the market, there don't appear to be many starters available. This can only help his value.

How much have you seen Viciedo play though? I've read that he's making strides. The Sox moved Beckham to 3B in Charlotte to keep Viciedo at 3B when it was clear Gordon could have went straight to Chicago from Birmingham. They also have kept Retherford at 2B to have Viciedo at 3B. I think they would have moved him by now if they gave up on him as a 3B.

 

I agree Richard could be a 4 and maybe even a 3 in the NL but I don't think he has enough value to get us a significantly better player. As part of a package for a significantly better player, yes I would move him. But he's been fine as a short starter and I still think he can be a very good lefty setup man should he return to the pen in the future. He wouldn't be a guy I'd move just to move.

 

I disagree on Jenks declining. I've seen his good CB this year and I've seen his velocity up as well. He's a pitcher and he doesn't need to throw 95+ anymore to get outs. He's absolutely fine pitching in the low-mid 90's as long as he locates.

 

There will be a lot of starters available. Texas is in it, but they could still move Padilla and Millwood. Apart from Peavy and Bedard, you have Washburn, Davis, Garland, Francis, Cook, maybe Cliff Lee in late July plus some of Cleveland's surplus of back-end starters, Pavano, Bartolo from us, maybe some Pirates pitchers even, Penny and Smoltz, Guthrie, maybe Sonnanstine hits the market (though who would want him aside from a few posters here who actually think he's good), on and on. A lot of these guys are much better bets than Contreras. Because of this economy, even though there aren't a whole lot of names out there right this moment, watch for the market to start flooding by the second week in July. You'll have a lot of teams making the decision that they aren't contenders but only a few teams looking to add SP who can also add payroll, and that is going to make for the ultimate buyer's market if you can take on payroll. Count will be one of the last pitchers on the list, and we're not moving him without taking on salary or eating salary.

 

Just think for a second about Wilson Betemit, who hasn't had a whole lot of AB this year so far. He's an accomplished bat off the bench, and even at $1M or whatever small amount he is making, nobody claimed him. Teams do not even want to go $1-2M on a bench bat anymore. Two years ago Betemit is most definitely claimed and acquired for nothing. Even Uribe at $4.5M last year was claimed, and he was nothing but a defensive backup with some pop in a pinch hit situation. Things have changed and we're not going to be able to unload Count, especially not with all the other names that will be out there, unless we pick up a ton.

 

I think it is very possible that in this market you may see some surprises. Like I said above, I think the market will start to flood with mostly mediocrity midway through July, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a team like the Royals throw Gil Meche out there to see what offers are out there. Not necessarily saying he'll be traded, but I could see a situation where contenders capable of assuming salary wait around a little while to see what hits the market when it's all said and done. I don't expect to see a whole lot of activity this year at all, but I expect a s*** ton of rumors.

 

 

 

 

[kwill]

If we are doing just pure speculation and fun. How about Poreada and Dotel for Brandon Wood.

[greg775]

How many lefthanded closers are there in baseball? It doesn't work. Too many righty hitters. IMO those of you who want Jenks gone are kukoo. I repeat who is going to be our closer the next few years? Thornton is a LEFTY. Righties will mash him and he'll have a 60 percent success rate in closing games.

 

Dave Righetti? Sparky Lyle? Thornton is no Sparky Lyle.

Edited June 20, 2009 by greg775

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

How many lefthanded closers are there in baseball? It doesn't work. Too many righty hitters. IMO those of you who want Jenks gone are kukoo. I repeat who is going to be our closer the next few years? Thornton is a LEFTY. Righties will mash him and he'll have a 60 percent success rate in closing games.

 

Dave Righetti? Sparky Lyle? Thornton is no Sparky Lyle.

Fuentes, Sherrill, Wagner....

 

Thornton is capable of closing IMO. But I still like Bobby and if I move him I do it for salary reasons, not performance/fear of declination reasons.

Edited June 20, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[greg775]

I'd rather we make wholesale changes in the offseason. Maybe one trade this season. Trade one of our power slow guys. Is it Kenny's style to retool the whole f***ing team during the season? I think not.

[SoxAce]

Add B.J. Ryan to the list. But I definitely understand Greg's point, though I always think the lefty vs righty (or vise versa) is overrated in baseball. One of my biggest pet peeves with Ozzie when he does that not even alot.. it seems like all the time now.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Add B.J. Ryan to the list. But I definitely understand Greg's point, though I always think the lefty vs righty (or vise versa) is overrated in baseball. One of my biggest pet peeves with Ozzie when he does that not even alot.. it seems like all the time now.

Yep, and Mike Gonzalez also. There are a lot of examples.

 

I agree that the lefty/righty matchup thing is overrated. It makes a lot of sense when a pitcher doesn't have the stuff to make up for the difference, or if he's a sidearmer/submariner who opens up to righties, that sort of thing. But a guy like Thornton can do it I think.

[BearSox]

If we are doing just pure speculation and fun. How about Poreada and Dotel for Brandon Wood.

 

I just puked all over my keyboard...

 

that would be a god awful trade. Poreda alone has about 5 times more trade value than Brandon Wood.

[fathom]

I just puked all over my keyboard...

 

that would be a god awful trade. Poreda alone has about 5 times more trade value than Brandon Wood.

 

Just remember, Angels prospects are extremely overrated on this site. I'm sure we'll get a Willits mention soon.

[bigruss]

How about Fields for Willits?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry fathom. Had to.

[Marty34]

How much have you seen Viciedo play though? I've read that he's making strides. The Sox moved Beckham to 3B in Charlotte to keep Viciedo at 3B when it was clear Gordon could have went straight to Chicago from Birmingham. They also have kept Retherford at 2B to have Viciedo at 3B. I think they would have moved him by now if they gave up on him as a 3B.

 

I agree Richard could be a 4 and maybe even a 3 in the NL but I don't think he has enough value to get us a significantly better player. As part of a package for a significantly better player, yes I would move him. But he's been fine as a short starter and I still think he can be a very good lefty setup man should he return to the pen in the future. He wouldn't be a guy I'd move just to move.

 

I disagree on Jenks declining. I've seen his good CB this year and I've seen his velocity up as well. He's a pitcher and he doesn't need to throw 95+ anymore to get outs. He's absolutely fine pitching in the low-mid 90's as long as he locates.

 

There will be a lot of starters available. Texas is in it, but they could still move Padilla and Millwood. Apart from Peavy and Bedard, you have Washburn, Davis, Garland, Francis, Cook, maybe Cliff Lee in late July plus some of Cleveland's surplus of back-end starters, Pavano, Bartolo from us, maybe some Pirates pitchers even, Penny and Smoltz, Guthrie, maybe Sonnanstine hits the market (though who would want him aside from a few posters here who actually think he's good), on and on. A lot of these guys are much better bets than Contreras. Because of this economy, even though there aren't a whole lot of names out there right this moment, watch for the market to start flooding by the second week in July. You'll have a lot of teams making the decision that they aren't contenders but only a few teams looking to add SP who can also add payroll, and that is going to make for the ultimate buyer's market if you can take on payroll. Count will be one of the last pitchers on the list, and we're not moving him without taking on salary or eating salary.

 

Just think for a second about Wilson Betemit, who hasn't had a whole lot of AB this year so far. He's an accomplished bat off the bench, and even at $1M or whatever small amount he is making, nobody claimed him. Teams do not even want to go $1-2M on a bench bat anymore. Two years ago Betemit is most definitely claimed and acquired for nothing. Even Uribe at $4.5M last year was claimed, and he was nothing but a defensive backup with some pop in a pinch hit situation. Things have changed and we're not going to be able to unload Count, especially not with all the other names that will be out there, unless we pick up a ton.

 

I think it is very possible that in this market you may see some surprises. Like I said above, I think the market will start to flood with mostly mediocrity midway through July, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a team like the Royals throw Gil Meche out there to see what offers are out there. Not necessarily saying he'll be traded, but I could see a situation where contenders capable of assuming salary wait around a little while to see what hits the market when it's all said and done. I don't expect to see a whole lot of activity this year at all, but I expect a s*** ton of rumors.

 

I don't know why they haven't moved him yet, maybe they wanted him to concentrate on his hitting without having to worry about a position change first year in pro ball, but I just don't see Viciedo ever being a big league third baseman.

 

The Brewers will be in a code red situation if they don't shore up their pitching in a hurry. They went to scout Pedro Martinez in the DR and he didn't even throw for them. They wouldn't have time to wait on him 4-6 weeks to get ready anyway. Besides that, they need multiple pitchers if they are going to stay in the race in the NL Central. Contreras and Richard might be the second and third best starters on their staff. If I were KW I'd offer those 2 + Jenks, pay Contreras' salary and see what they'd be willing to part with.

Edited June 20, 2009 by Marty34

[BearSox]

I'm sorry Marty, but you gotta stop with all this godly wisdom of yours. If you don't think Viciedo will stick at 3B, fine. But unless you've seen him play a lot, don't act like you know for a fact he's gonna have to move.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

If we are doing just pure speculation and fun. How about Poreada and Dotel for Brandon Wood.

OK, I'll play: Poreda, Flowers, Getz, Fields and Linebrink for Tejada and Pence.

[BearSox]

How about Fields for Willits?

 

I'd do it... at least Willits can play above average D in the outfield.

[Marty34]

I'm sorry Marty, but you gotta stop with all this godly wisdom of yours. If you don't think Viciedo will stick at 3B, fine. But unless you've seen him play a lot, don't act like you know for a fact he's gonna have to move.

 

But it's ok to act like he's going to stay at third? I don't understand.

 

I've seen him play enough that to me he hasn't changed any of the concerns scouts had when he signed - that he isn't a good defensive third baseman. Again, Josh Fields is way ahead of him defensively and there aren't a lot of people that are happy with his defensive prowess.

Edited June 20, 2009 by Marty34

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

OK, I'll play: Poreda, Flowers, Getz, Fields and Linebrink for Tejada and Pence.

If you had Pence, would you trade him for any one of those players?

 

Houston has Castro as their future catcher. Berkman is at 1B so moving Flowers there probably won't work. Poreda would fit there, but would you really want to trade a proven young productive power-hitting RF for a guy who is a bullpen pitcher now and *might* become an ace in the future if a bunch of things go right? Getz and Fields don't even belong in the discussion in that case. Linebrink is a good reliever with a bad contract.

 

In all, we don't have enough to get players like Pence unless we're trading players we don't want to trade.

 

Now, maybe we'd be able to put together a package for Luke Scott - but for as much as he'd cost, he's also 31 and will be getting pretty expensive. I think we should either be targeting prospects who can grow with the core, cheap reclamation young players, or we should do nothing and try to sign some productive veterans at low prices on short-term deals over the offseason to spot-patch our holes.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

But it's ok to act like he's going to stay at third? I don't understand.

 

I've seen him play enough that to me he hasn't changed any of the concerns scouts had when he signed - that he isn't a good defensive third baseman. Again, Josh Fields is way ahead of him defensively and there aren't a lot of people that are happy with his defensive prowess.

So what is enough? A few games in ST? How much have you seen him recently in Birmingham?

 

And what does he do that is so wrong he'll never be able to fix, or what does he do wrong that he can't improve on over the next two years?

Edited June 20, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[ThunderBolt]

I'd do it... at least Willits can play above average D in the outfield.

Yes, because an OF with no pop is exactly what the Cell demands. How is it that you can hate Brandon Wood, but love Ryan Sweeney and Reggie Willits? Now, I’m not saying that Dotel and Poreda for Wood aren’t ridiculous, because it really is, but I wouldn’t be averse to structuring a deal.

[Marty34]

So what is enough? A few games in ST? How much have you seen him recently in Birmingham?

 

And what does he do that is so wrong he'll never be able to fix, or what does he do wrong that he can't improve on over the next two years?

 

I don't like him defensively at third. He certainly should not preclude the Sox from getting a third base prospect should one become available because it will be his bat that will determine if he'll play.

[BearSox]

But it's ok to act like he's going to stay at third? I don't understand.

 

I've seen him play enough that to me he hasn't changed any of the concerns scouts had when he signed - that he isn't a good defensive third baseman. Again, Josh Fields is way ahead of him defensively and there aren't a lot of people that are happy with his defensive prowess.

How about we give him time? Fields was atrocious at 3B back in 06 and 07, but he developed into mediocre (which still isn't good, but I'd take mediocre D from 3B if you could provide an impact at bat). Also, Fields is what, 27? That's 7 years older than Viciedo. I'm not saying to act like he will stay there, but at the same time, you don't have to act like it's a for gone conclusion that he will have to move. I personally don't know, I have only seen him a couple times.

 

However, considering he's been said to be athletic enough to play the corner OF and has a very strong arm (threw in the 90's when he pitched in Cuba, IIRC), I say there's still reason to believe that he can still develop defensively.

[BearSox]

Yes, because an OF with no pop is exactly what the Cell demands. How is it that you can hate Brandon Wood, but love Ryan Sweeney and Reggie Willits? Now, I'm not saying that Dotel and Poreda for Wood aren't ridiculous, because it really is, but I wouldn't be averse to structuring a deal.

I don't like Wood's approach or swing, I like Sweeney's swing (but his approach needs work). As for Willits, I really don't care, but I'd take him over Fields. He'd be a solid 4th OF, IMO.

[Marty34]

How about we give him time? Fields was atrocious at 3B back in 06 and 07, but he developed into mediocre (which still isn't good, but I'd take mediocre D from 3B if you could provide an impact at bat). Also, Fields is what, 27? That's 7 years older than Viciedo. I'm not saying to act like he will stay there, but at the same time, you don't have to act like it's a for gone conclusion that he will have to move. I personally don't know, I have only seen him a couple times.

 

However, considering he's been said to be athletic enough to play the corner OF and has a very strong arm (threw in the 90's when he pitched in Cuba, IIRC), I say there's still reason to believe that he can still develop defensively.

 

To tell you the truth, I don't care about his glove. I'm more concerned about his bat. He's definitely made strides, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect more offensively from him at this point for the $10.5M paid. I understand his youth and adjusting to an entirely different way of life have to be factored in.